Navarro Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Looking at the next 16 days starting from August 7th, the pattern is grim. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about 0.5° cooler than usual for this time of year, so pretty average. But the surf? It’s a long, hard wait.

The first week is a write-off. For the first several days, from August 7th right through until the morning of the 12th, it’s a no-go. The swell is building, sure, but it’s all cross-onshore wind and short-period, weak energy. The wind is coming from the NW and WNW at 9 to 12 mph, just chopping everything up. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate (195 to 277), and the period is a paltry 6 to 7 seconds. The waves are junky and unsurfable. Even when the swell hits 8 ft to 10 ft on the 9th and 10th, it’s junk. That’s too big for beginners anyway, and with the wind ruining it, it’s just a mess. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Then, from the 12th to the 14th, things get slightly less bad, but still not good. The wind shifts to light breezes, sometimes coming onshore, sometimes cross-onshore, and the swell drops slightly. The combined energy gets into the moderate range (654 to 1238), but the period is still short at 8 to 9 seconds. The forecast calls it “marginal,” and I’m feeling generous calling it that. The tide is likely a factor, making it a frustrating gamble. The only real standout in this run is the Tuesday morning, the 12th, when the wind is light and onshore and the swell is 8 ft from the NW with a 9-second period. The energy is solid (1089), but the break is inconsistent and with that wind, it's still a grinder.

The second week is a total washout. From the 15th onward, the swell drops off a cliff. The combined energy falls to weak levels (22 to 119), and the period is a short 6 to 7 seconds. The waves are tiny, all 2 ft to 3 ft, and the wind is cross-onshore and choppy. It’s flat. There is a blip on the 19th, Wednesday morning, when a long-period groundswell (13 seconds) from the WNW shows up. The energy spikes to 1128, but the swell is only 4 ft to 5 ft, and it’s cross-onshore. This is a long-period swell, which at a river mouth can be a bit too straight, and the wind will still mess it up. It’s a tease, but not a day worth paddling out for.

So, the bottom line: there are no good surf options in this 16-day window. The whole period is a struggle. The only thing that even registers as a "maybe" is the Tuesday morning on August 12th, but even that’s a stretch. For a spot that’s inconsistent and rarely breaks well, this dry run is pretty normal. We’ll have to wait for the forecast to change.

Stay patient, Rusty.

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