Navarro Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

We’re looking at a pretty quiet stretch for the first few days. Through Thursday the 6th and into Friday the 7th, the surf is small and the wind is working against us. You’ll see chest to head high stuff at best on Friday, but it’s coming from the NW with a cross-onshore breeze, leaving it a bit lumpy. The swell energy is weak, only around 160 to 243 in the combined reading. Not worth paddling out unless you’re desperate for a splash. The water, by the way, is sitting at 13°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year—don't forget the booties.

Saturday the 8th starts to show some life. The swell builds to 1.8m in the morning and pushes to 2.4m by the afternoon, with the period dropping to 8 seconds. It’s got some push, but the NW wind stays on it, keeping things messy. The energy is ramping up though, going from 354 to 742. Still pretty average, but you can start to see the gears turning.

Sunday the 9th is where it gets real. The swell jumps to 2.5m in the morning and hits 3.0m by the afternoon. This is a solid push of NW swell, period up to 9 seconds. But the wind is up to 20 km/h from the NW, and it’s gonna be choppy. The energy numbers are strong now—1044 in the morning and 1360 in the afternoon—but the wind is really gonna mess with the surface. This is more of a power session for the experienced crew, and honestly, it might be more interesting for the kite surfers out there in the afternoon. This is a beach-and-reef setup, so with that much swell and that wind, it’s going to be a washing machine.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Monday the 10th through Thursday the 13th is the window you want to watch. The swell backs off slightly to a manageable 2.2m to 2.5m, but the big change is the wind. It goes light and variable, turning onshore from WSW in the mornings. That’s a game-changer. We’re talking clean, glassy conditions with the swell holding its ground around the 2.4m mark and the period stretching out to 9-10 seconds. The energy is solid, sitting in the 700 to 900+ range. This is the cleanest it’s going to get during this whole run, and the tide should be more favorable too. This is the time to get out there.

Friday the 14th starts to see it back off. Swell drops to 1.4m in the morning and 1.3m in the afternoon. The wind goes light, and there’s a chance for some fun waves, but the size is starting to fade.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th is a down period. We’re looking at small, weak surf around the 1m mark with the odd bump. Not much on offer. The energy is dropping back down to the low 100s. You might find a soft one if you’re keen, but it’s not worth a special trip.

The second week is more of a slow burn. The 17th and 18th are pretty poor—small, short period, cross-onshore wind. Not good. But then there’s a glimmer of hope on Wednesday the 19th. We see a new WNW swell pushing in, with the period jumping to 12 seconds. The height is around 1.9m in the morning. The energy is strong, nearly 1000, but the wind is back on it. That long period is good, but for this river mouth, it might have a tendency to straighten out. It’s a promise, but less certain.

The 20th and 21st look like more of the same—stronger swell in the 2.1m to 2.3m range, but short period and onshore winds. Not a good look. The whole run is on a downslide from there.

So, here’s the deal. The standout is Monday the 10th through Thursday the 13th. Focus your energy there. The swell is solid, the wind is right, and the waves should have some real shape to them. It won’t be world-class, but it’s the best we got for a while. Keep in mind, this spot is a rivermouth and can be inconsistent, so check the banks before you commit.

Rusty out.

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