Navarro Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’ve got a tough one for you. Let’s get right into it.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the outlook for the next 16 days is a bit of a heartbreaker, especially if you’re looking for a clean, fun wave. The only spot on the radar here is Navarro Rivermouth, and it’s an inconsistent river mouth that’s fairly exposed to that NW swell. The water’s sitting at 57°F, which is right about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We kick things off on Thursday, July 30th, but it’s not looking good. We’ve got a 6 ft NW swell with a short, weak period of 7 seconds and a moderate combined energy of (375). The wind is a cross-on from the NW at 9 mph, making for a fairly choppy mess. This is a no-go for a paddle. The afternoon only gets worse with a 8 ft swell and the wind picking up to 12 mph, pushing the energy to (585) but the surf quality is still poor.

Friday, July 31st through Saturday, August 1st is a write-off. The swell drops a bit on Friday morning to 5 ft but the wind stays cross-on, and the energy is only (233). Saturday afternoon sees the swell jump to 10 ft and the wind hitting 19 mph, with energy climbing to (1016). That’s a lot of messy, lumpy water. Honestly, with that much wind and poor quality, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday, August 2nd is the biggest day of the run, with an 12 ft swell and a monstrous energy reading of (2199). The period has stretched to 9 seconds, which is a bit better, but the wind is still a moderate cross-on from the NNW at 16 mph. This is way too big for beginners, and honestly, with the chop, it’s only for the experts or the kamikaze crew.

The best chance in this whole window – and I’m using that term loosely – comes on Monday, August 3rd. The morning swell is a solid 10 ft with a 10-second period, giving a very strong energy of (1750). The wind is a lighter cross-on from the NW at 9 mph, so it’s still a bit lumpy. The real standout is the Monday afternoon, where the swell hits 12 ft with a 10-second period and a massive energy of (1956). The wind is the same gentle breeze, and the forecast actually says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. It’s a tease, really. It’s the only time the score gets a look-in, but it’s borderline. If you’re an expert and you don’t mind a river mouth that’s rarely breaking well, this is your one shot.

After that, it’s a long, slow decline. Tuesday, August 4th has an 8 ft swell in the morning with a light cross-on, but the energy is still (1260) and the quality is marginal. The afternoon sees a switch to an onshore wind from the W at 3 mph with a 7 ft swell, but it’s still not great.

From Wednesday, August 5th all the way through to Friday, August 14th, the story is the same: poor to marginal conditions. The swell drops from 6 ft down to 4 ft, the period stays short (8-10 seconds), and the wind is almost always a cross-on or onshore. The energy drops from a moderate (622) all the way down to a weak (235). There are a few mornings with a light onshore breeze that might offer a glimmer, but nothing consistent enough to chase.

So, to wrap it up: the only true standout, and it’s a big *if*, is the afternoon of Monday, August 3rd. That’s the one to circle on the calendar if you’re an expert and willing to deal with a lumpy, oversized river mouth. For the rest of us, it’s a long stretch of blank days with no real recommendations. It’s one of those runs where the forecast needs to change, or we just wait for the next NW groundswell.

Stay salty, and keep your eyes on the horizon.

- Rusty

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