Navarro Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let's look at what we've got for the next couple of weeks at the rivermouth. It's a tough nut to crack, and for the first week or so, it's not looking pretty.

Starting July 2nd, we do have some swell, but the conditions are just off. The water is sitting at 52°F, which is a full 4°F colder than average for July—a real shock to the system. The wind's been cross-onshore, and the surf quality is just being called poor, so don't get your hopes up.

The main problem is a stubborn cross-onshore breeze that’s spoiling everything. Thursday the 2nd has 7ft NW swell, but that cross-on wind is chopping it up all day. Friday the 3rd through Monday the 7th sees the wind shifting onshore or cross-onshore, with swell holding around 5ft to 7ft – all of it getting wrecked. It’s a long run of "poor conditions" with the combined swell energy in the moderate range (366 to 587), but it just doesn't matter with that wind.

We get a big spike on Thursday, July 9th, but it’s still messy. The swell jumps to 8ft in the morning and a solid 10ft by afternoon, with the combined energy hitting the strong zone (1339). But with a moderate cross-onshore and a period around 8 to 9 seconds at a river mouth, it’s going to be a chaotic mess. That size is for experts only, and the quality is still poor.

From July 10th to the 13th, it's more of the same—cross-onshore winds, moderate swell (6ft to 8ft), and general disappointment. The only tiny flicker is around July 12th and 13th when we get a brief onshore wind window, but it's still just marginal.

Now, way out in the second week, things change character completely. On July 15th we get a late spike to 8ft again, but with a short 7-second period – that’s gonna be a fat, crumbly mess. Then on July 16th and 17th, everything shifts. The swell drops way down to just 3ft, but the period goes very long – 16 to 18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. The wind also goes light and onshore, which could mean smooth, clean surf. For a river mouth, a long period NW swell can be tricky as it might run straight, but if the bank is on song, those long lines could be a lot of fun on a longboard. The combined energy is still moderate (630 to 953), but it's a totally different, more delicate opportunity.

So, what’s the pick? Honestly, the only real standout window is at the very end of the forecast. Thursday July 16th and Friday July 17th are your best bet for clean, manageable conditions. The 3ft swell with a 17-18 second period, plus a light onshore wind that could go glassy, is your only real chance for a clean session. It won't be big, but it'll be miles better than the choppy junk of the first week. If you can wait, that's your time. The 10ft day on the 9th is there for the adrenaline junkies, but it’s a gamble with the wind and chop.

There’s a long dry spell to start, nearly a week of nothing much, then a different, smaller, cleaner option right at the end. No classic days, just a couple of quiet windows for a peaceful paddle. Keep an eye on it, the forecast can always change.

Rusty.

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