Navarro Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks at Navarro Rivermouth.

We’re looking at a pretty frustrating start. The first few days are a write-off. Tuesday the 1st and Wednesday the 2nd are all poor surf conditions with cross-shore or cross-onshore winds and weak, messy energy. The combined swell energy is in the low hundreds (109 to 397) – not enough to get excited about, and the wind is just ruining what little shape there is.

Thursday the 3rd sees a jump in size, with swell hitting 6 ft to 7 ft from the WNW/NW, and the wave energy climbs into the 500s and over 1000 (528 to 1084). But the wind is still cross-on, and the forecast calls it marginal. It’s not gonna be pretty. Friday the 4th is similar, with 7 ft from the NW dropping to 6 ft, but those cross-onshore winds are still there making it choppy. Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th are small, below 4 ft, and messy.

We’ve got a real gap here. It’s not until Monday the 8th that we start to see something worth looking at. Monday morning the 8th has 8 ft from the NW, and 8 ft in the afternoon. The wind is light cross-on, but the swell period is only 9 seconds, so it’s a bit short and won’t hold shape well. The energy is strong (974 and 816), but with the wind and short period, it’s only marginal.

Now, here’s the standout. On Thursday the 10th, we get a moment of glass. The afternoon shows 5 ft of NW swell with a 12-second period, and the wind goes glassy with a slight air. The combined energy is 593 – moderate. The wind is glassy, so the surface will be clean. This is the best wave of the first week. The swell direction is NW, which is the optimum for this river-mouth break. The water is running about 53°F, which is much colder than normal for the time of year – a solid 5°F cooler, so you’ll want a thick wetsuit.

The following week is a mixed bag. Friday the 11th has a 16-second period swell from the SW, but it’s only 3 ft and cross-on wind pushes it to marginal. Saturday the 12th is small and poor. The next real blip is the final day of the forecast. Wednesday the 16th. The morning sees 10 ft from the NW with an 8-second period and light cross-on wind – that’s a lot of water and a short period, making it pretty chaotic. The afternoon though, that’s a heavy warning. We’re looking at 15 ft of NW swell, glassy wind, and a massive combined energy of 3246. The wind is perfect, but it’s predicted to be too big for this break. Only for experts, and even then, it’s on the edge.

For a novice, this is a tough run. The break is inconsistent and often crowded. The best bet for a clean, workable wave is the Thursday afternoon the 10th – that glassy 5 ft NW swell. It’s the only time in the period where the stars align for a decent, clean session.

Rusty.

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