Melbourne Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook for the next 16 days is a tough one. We’ve got a long, flat run ahead with hardly anything worth paddling out for. The first real blip of decent surf doesn't show up until early August, and even then, it’s a mixed bag. There are several gaps where it’s basically flat, so don’t be in a rush.

For the first week, from the end of July right through to the 6th of August, it’s grim. We’re talking tiny, gutless waves – ankle to knee high at best. The energy is weak, with combined swell readings staying below 100 most days (like 15 or 35). The wind is all over the place, but mostly cross-off or offshore, which would be great if there was anything to surf. The water temp is sitting at 84°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least it’s warm for a float. But honestly, don’t bother with a board.

We do see a spike in swell around the 7th of August. This is the only thing that even gets close to interesting. Check out Melbourne Beach on Friday the 7th morning. We’ve got a 6 ft easterly swell pushing in, with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a strong 522, so there is some weight behind it. But here’s the catch – that wind is onshore from the ENE at 9 mph, making it choppy and messy. The afternoon gets worse, with the swell bumping up to 6 ft (combined energy of 968), but the wind turns cross-onshore at 12 mph. This is borderline too big for beginners, and with the onshore wind, it's only going to be for the experienced crew who don’t mind a battle. This is the best on offer, but it’s not pretty.

After that little pulse, it drops back down. Saturday the 8th has some waist-high leftovers (4 ft to 4 ft) but the wind is cross-on, so it’s lumpy. Sunday the 9th morning finally gives us a clean window – a light offshore from the W at 6 mph, but the swell has collapsed to a weak 4 ft with a terrible 5-second period. That’s just windswell, 62 combined energy, and it’ll be fat and weak. It’s surfable, but only just.

The second week is mostly a write-off. There are small, ordinary waves from the 10th to the 13th of August, with most days barely breaking knee-high. The best of that lot might be the mornings on the 11th and 12th, with some clean conditions from a light cross-off breeze, but the swell is tiny (3 ft to 3 ft) and the period is short (6 to 8 seconds). The energy stays low (112 at best). It’s a lot of effort for very little reward.

So, to sum it up: if you’re desperate, the 7th of August has the biggest swell, but it’s a messy, expert-only affair. The 9th of August morning is the cleanest, but it’s tiny and weak. Otherwise, keep the board in the shed. It’s a long dry spell, and the forecasts can always change, but right now, it’s not looking good.

Rusty.

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