Melbourne Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s cut through it. This is a grim run for the Melbourne Beach stretch. The whole 16-day window is a flat spell with nothing that’s worth paddling out for. The first real hint of something surfable comes on the very last day, and even that’s more of a shrug than a shout.

We kick off Wednesday July 8th with tiny 1ft to 2ft slop from the ESE at a mediocre 9 seconds. The combined energy is weak – just 39 (range 0-99) – and the wind is already working against it. That pattern sets the tone: for the next two weeks, the swell barely lifts above 3ft and the period drops to 5 seconds on many days. The energy readings are all in the feeble two-digit zone, never breaking 100 except for one odd bump on the afternoon of July 20th where it hits 187 (moderate), but even then the wave comment says “poor surf conditions.”

There’s a long gap of nearly two weeks with no recommendations. The morning of Saturday July 18th finally offers a glimpse of something: an offshore wind from the WSW at 6 mph, 3ft swell from the ESE at 5 seconds. The combined energy is only 52 (weak), but the wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It’s clean at least, but that period is so short the waves will be weak and crumbly. That’s the best of a bad lot.

Then Sunday July 19th morning has 3ft from the SE at 6 seconds with cross-off winds and a 67 (weak) energy reading – again, surfable but ordinary. The afternoon bumps to 4ft with the same SE direction and a 77 (weak) energy, still under clean cross-off winds. Water temperature is not given in the data, so I can’t report on that.

For a beginner, this swell is well under 5ft, so it’s not too big, but the quality is so poor it’s hardly worth the drive. If you’re a kite surfer, the afternoon cross-onshore wind and choppy conditions on the 16th, 17th, and 20th might look more interesting than anything a paddle surfer would consider.

The standout, if you can call it that, is the afternoon of July 19th when the swell pushes 4ft from the SE, the wind is cross-off, and the conditions are clean. It’s still short period and the energy is low, but it’s the only moment in the whole window where the setup isn’t completely hopeless. For a beach break, that long period gap between sets isn’t an issue here because the period is so short.

This is a blank run, plain and simple. For this area, it’s not unusual to see a stretch like this. Forecasts can change, but right now, save your wax.

Rusty.

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