Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down the coming swell window for the Island.

First, honesty time. Right now, the surf is not doing us any favours. The whole 16-day stretch is pretty much a write-off for quality waves, so I’m not going to sugarcoat it. We’re looking at a long, dry gap with nothing worth paddling for. The first lineup worth even mentioning doesn’t turn up until 17 August, and even then, it’s on the edge.

So, here’s the situation. The wind is a constant problem. Almost every day, we’re dealing with a moderate to fresh onshore breeze, mostly from the east-northeast. That’s just blowing the surface to bits. The swell is mostly weak and short-period, with some exceptions but they’re all ruined by the wind.

The only real standout – and I’m using that word lightly – comes on 15 August. Saturday morning, Makapu’u (Oahu) sees a 8 ft swell from the east-northeast, with a period of 12 seconds. That’s a moderate groundswell, carrying some real energy (2259). The problem? The wind is still blowing onshore at 25 mph. That’s a strong breeze, and it’s going to be messy. The wave energy is too high for beginners, and the wind is making it a challenge for everyone. This is a session for experienced surfers only, and even then, you’ll be fighting the wind. The combined energy is strong (2259), but it’s not a clean day.

Then, 16 August, Sunday, the swell pumps up to 13 ft from the east-northeast, with a 12-second period and a massive 4242 combined energy. That is very strong. But the wind switches to a cross-onshore from the east-southeast, and then a cross-shore from the southeast. The water is going to be a washing machine, straight up. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle surf day. Not for beginners – that’s 13 ft, for experts only, but the quality is poor.

The water temperature sits at 81°, which is a normal 0.7° anomaly, so pretty average for this time of year.

The only other window that might be worth a look is 17 August, Monday morning. The swell drops to 8 ft, period is a short 8 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (1187). The wind is an onshore moderate breeze at 12 mph. The forecast calls it marginal, and I’d agree. It’s not a total loss, but it’s not a day to plan your week around.

After that, from 18 August to 26 August, we’re back to the same story: 3 ft to 6 ft of short-period, onshore wind swell. The energy stays weak to moderate (262 to 1343), and the wind is relentless. The only change is a pulse of longer-period swell from the south and south-southwest around 23-26 August, with periods up to 17 seconds, and combined energy getting into the strong range (1225 to 1343). But again, the wind is onshore, so it’s going to be chopped up and tough to enjoy.

Honestly, if you’re looking to surf, don’t hold your breath. This is a blank run for the region. It’s one of those stretches where the forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a lean period. The best advice I can give is to check back in a few days.

Rusty.

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