Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this is a tough stretch for the usual spots. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window, but the first surf recommendation doesn’t kick in until Friday, August 14th, and honestly, it’s a rough start.

The overall pattern is a lot of wind and a lot of swell hitting the wrong way. For the first week, from August 14th through about the 20th, we’ve got a powerful, but messy, east-northeast wind swell that’s going to be blown out and onshore. The wave energy is moderate to strong (1051 to 2467), but the wind is just relentless. It’s a classic case of “looks big, surfs terrible.”

Let’s talk about Makapu'u. This is a reef break that’s exposed to the open ocean. The water temperature is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing weird there. But the wind is the enemy. From Friday morning, August 14th, we’ve got 22 mph onshore winds and a 8 ft swell from the ENE. That’s a 0/10. It stays like this for days. Saturday and Sunday the swell pumps up to 12 ft from the east, but it’s accompanied by a near gale and cross-onshore winds. The period is only 9 seconds, so it’s lumpy, wind-blown junk. By Sunday afternoon, August 16th, it drops to an 8 ft swell, but the wind is still cross-on from the ESE. It’s a 1/10 at best, and even then, it’s marginal. For the rest of the first week, it’s a mix of onshore winds and weak, short-period swell. The energy drops off into the hundreds (231 to 435), and it’s all poor.

There is a brief, weird shift on August 20th. The swell drops to 2 ft, but it swings around to the SSW with a long 18-second period. The energy is still moderate (362), but the period is long. That’s a tease. It’s still blown out by 16 mph onshore winds.

The second week is a bit of a mixed bag. From August 21st to the 23rd, we’re stuck with small, weak, onshore swell (3 ft to 3 ft, periods of 8-9 seconds, energy in the 80s to 200s). Nothing to write home about.

Then, towards the end of the window, around August 24th to 25th, we get another shift. The swell direction goes back to the SSW, with periods of 14 to 16 seconds, but the swell height is tiny (2 ft to 3 ft). The energy is moderate (400 to 638), but the wind is still howling onshore at 22-25 mph. It’s a long-period groundswell, but it’s too small and too windy.

The real kicker comes at the very end. On Thursday, August 27th, and into Friday, August 28th, the swell jumps back up to 8 ft from the ENE with an 8-second period. The energy is strong again (1055 to 1339). But the wind is a solid 25 mph onshore. It’s just a repeat of the first week. By Saturday, August 29th, it drops to 6 ft, but the wind is still a fresh 19 mph onshore.

The Honest Truth: There is no standout. There is no day to circle on the calendar. The best you’ll get is maybe a few hours of marginal, onshore slop on Sunday the 16th, but it’s not worth the paddle. The swell direction is never right for the break’s optimum ESE direction, and the wind is a constant problem. For a spot like Makapu'u, this setup is more interesting for kite surfing than for a paddle surfer. We’re in a bad run, but this region is fairly consistent, so it won’t stay poor forever. Forecasts can change.

Stay loose, keep an eye on it, but for now, save your energy.

Rusty.

Read more