Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, this is Rusty. Well, I’ve had a good look at the charts for the upcoming stretch, and honestly, it’s a pretty tough run ahead. The whole 16-day window is dominated by a persistent onshore wind regime, and that’s really putting the brakes on any quality surf. From the start of the period right through to the first week of September, we’re looking at a solid wall of poor surf conditions. The wind is blowing from the ENE, mostly in the fresh to strong breeze range, and it’s consistently onshore. That’s a recipe for choppy, messy surf, and it’s not a good look for our main break here.

Let’s get into it. The first real sniff of anything different shows up on the 4th of September, Friday morning, when the wind eases back to a gentle breeze from the east. The waves are still a bit small, around 6 ft, and the swell direction is from the ENE, but it’s only a marginal cue. The combined wave energy is 562 (moderate), but the wind is still onshore, so it’s not going to be clean. That’s about as close to a surfable moment as we get in the first half of the outlook.

The real standout of the entire period comes much later, on the 6th and 7th of September. On Sunday, the 6th, and Monday, the 7th, we finally see a shift. The wind swings around to the ESE, dropping to a light breeze. It’s cross-onshore, not perfect, but it’s a big upgrade from the constant onshore we’ve been dealing with. The swell size drops to 3 ft, but it’s coming from the SSW with a very long period of 17 seconds on the 6th, and 15 seconds on the 7th. That’s a beautiful groundswell, and it’s got some real energy behind it, with the combined energy reading 637 and 636 on the 6th, and 699 on the 7th (all moderate). The water temperature is a warm 81°, which is about average for this time of year, with a tiny anomaly of 0.5°, so nothing unusual there. The break is Makapu’u, a reef setup that’s exposed to the swell, and this long-period SSW groundswell is exactly the kind of swell that can wrap in and put on a show. The wind is light, so it’ll be a lot cleaner than anything else in the forecast. It’s still a bit of a gamble, as the forecast is a long way out, but this is the one to keep an eye on.

After that, the pattern quickly reverts back to the onshore ENE wind and poor conditions for the rest of the window. The swell picks up to 5 ft to 6 ft, but with short periods around 8 seconds and the wind onshore, it’s just a messy, blown-out lump. The last few days of the outlook, from the 8th to the 10th of September, are much the same – moderate to strong onshore winds and poor surf.

So, the long story short: there’s a big gap of poor surf from now until the 4th of September, with just a marginal moment on the Friday morning. The real highlight is the 6th and 7th of September, with that light wind and long-period SSW groundswell. It’s a promising call, but we’re a long way out. For the rest of it, you’re better off keeping the board in the car and waiting for the next change.

Rusty

Read more