Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I've gotta level with you about the Oahu surf scene for the next couple of weeks. We're looking at a pretty grim run ahead, if I'm being honest. The data's telling me there's a long stretch of poor quality surf, so we're going to have to sit through a lot of doldrums before anything even starts to look interesting.

The first record we've got is for Makapu'u (Oahu) on Wednesday morning, August 19th. The water temperature is sitting at 80°F, which is pretty much average for this time of year, so no surprises there. But the surf? It's a write-off. We're looking at a weak 3-foot easterly swell with a short period of 8 seconds, and the wind is straight onshore at 12 mph. The combined energy is a weak 216, and it's just poor conditions. That theme continues all week.

From Wednesday the 19th right through to the start of September, it's all "poor surf conditions" and onshore winds. Thursday the 20th sees a small 2-foot south-southwest swell, but it's a long period groundswell at 18 seconds, which is a tease. The energy is moderate (339), but the wind is cross-onshore, making it choppy. The whole week is a write-off with strong onshore trade winds. By the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd, the wind is up to 25-28 mph from the ENE, and the swell is a messy 6 feet with a period of just 6 to 7 seconds. The energy gets up to moderate (502), but the wind is just too strong.

We've got a gap of almost two weeks of no good surf. The wind doesn't let up, and the swell is mostly short-period, wind-driven slop. The energy does climb, hitting 613 on the 25th and 640 on the 28th, but it's all onshore junk. The swell height starts to push over 7 feet from the 28th onwards, but it's still a poor quality, short-period east-northeast swell. That's too big for beginners and not much fun for anyone else with that wind.

The first sign of anything different is on Thursday, September 3rd. The forecast finally shifts from "poor" to "marginal." The swell is a solid 7 – 7 feet from the east-northeast, with a period of 9 to 10 seconds, and the wind drops to 12 mph onshore. The energy is very strong, registering 1131 to 1263. It's still an onshore wind, but it's a lighter breeze, so it's not as messy. The swell is getting some shape, but it's going to be a tough, bumpy surf.

So, honestly, don't hold your breath for anything good in the next two weeks. The best you can hope for is that September 3rd might offer a few more powerful, but still wind-affected, waves. Keep checking back, but for now, I'd be looking at other hobbies.

Rusty.

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