Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s break it down for Makapu’u.

Honestly, this is a rough one. Over the whole 16-day window, the forecast is showing nothing but poor surf conditions. Every single session is rated zero. There’s no good recommendation in this entire period. It’s a long stretch of flat or messy water.

We kick off on Sunday, July 12th, with some size – swell around 7 ft, but it’s coming from the ENE with a short 7-second period. On top of that, there’s a strong onshore wind at 25 mph. The energy is moderate at 498, but with the wind howling onshore, it’s going to be a choppy, blown-out mess. That setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. This same ugly pattern sticks around through Monday and Tuesday – energy hits 697 and 660, but that onshore wind keeps it from being surfable.

We see a change mid-week. On Wednesday the 15th, the morning is still small and onshore, but by the afternoon the wave height drops to just 2 ft. What’s interesting is the period jumps to 14 seconds from the SSW, giving energy of 343. That’s a long-period groundswell, which could wrap onto a reef like Makapu’u, but the onshore east wind will still ruin it. Thursday and Friday offer similar long-period SSW pulses (16 seconds, 17 seconds) but the waves are tiny, under 2 ft, and the wind stays onshore.

Now, looking long-range, things get more energetic. From around Saturday, July 25th, the swell picks up to 3 to 4 ft from the E, with 15-second periods. The combined energy jumps into the strong range – 901 and then 960. That’s real groundswell energy. But the wind is still a steady onshore breeze from the ENE at 19 mph, which is not the offshore direction Makapu’u needs. The break is “fairly consistent,” and crowds are possible, but the wind kills it. By Monday the 27th, the swell builds to 4 to 5 ft from the E at 14 seconds, with energy spiking hard to 1364 and 1607. That’s serious energy. But without a wind shift, it’s a tease.

Water temp is about 79°, which is normal for this time of year.

In this whole 16-day stretch, there are no standouts. Forecasts can change, and this place usually gets waves, so don’t give up hope. But as it sits right now, it’s a blank run. Keep watching the charts.

- Rusty

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