Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what we've got lined up over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough run. The whole forecast is painted in one colour: poor surf conditions. We're looking at Makapu'u (Oahu) basically getting hammered by an onshore trade wind pattern that just won't let up. The wind's blowing onshore from the ENE at a solid 18 to 25 mph for almost every session, which is gonna chop things up real bad. The water’s sitting at 79°, which is about normal for the time of year, but you wouldn't know it from how raw the ocean's gonna feel.

The first week, starting July 2nd, is a write-off for a decent paddle. We've got swell hanging around 5 ft from the ENE, but with that wind locking straight in, it's just messy. The combined swell energy is moderate (between 500 and 565), but it doesn't matter when the wind is that dirty. There's a brief moment on Saturday the 4th where the swell drops to 2 ft, which is tiny, but the real story that day is a super long-period groundswell from the S at 20-21 seconds. That kicks the combined energy right up into the strong zone (716-1021). But here's the kicker: Makapu'u is a reef break and wants the swell from the ESE to work. That long-period S swell is pointing the wrong way for this spot. On top of that, a long-period swell like that can make a place like this close out or get weird, so it's a no-go. That afternoon, the wind is still howling onshore, anyway.

Now, the second week from around July 5th into the 17th, it gets a bit punchier size-wise, but it’s just more of the same problem. Swell bumps up to over 7 ft and even hits 8 ft on the 7th, with the combined energy staying strong to very strong (between 900 and 990). But the period drops to a short 7 seconds, and the wind is a strong onshore breeze. That size with that wind and short period is just blown-out, bumpy, and honestly, it's more of a kite-surfing setup than a classic paddle session. For a beginner, anything over 5 ft is already a handful; once it’s over 8 ft, you better be an expert. With this onshore wind and a short period, the whole place is going to be a washing machine. There is no standout session in this entire 16-day window. If you absolutely have to get wet, maybe look for a spot that can handle these trades, but at Makapu'u specifically, the outlook is grim.

We're looking at two full weeks of pretty much nothing but onshore slop. That’s a long blank run. It’s one of those stretches where you shake your head, look at the forecast, and wait for the trades to back off. Things can always flip, but for now, save your energy.

Rusty.

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