Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me break this down for you. This is Rusty, and I'm looking straight at the Makapu'u stretch. It's a reef setup, exposed, and it takes a pretty specific angle to really come alive. Over these next 16 days, I gotta be straight with you: it's a rough run. The onshore wind is the story here, and it's not a good one.

We're starting off with a big gap before anything really becomes rideable. The first couple of days are a total write-off. The wind is howling from the ENE, smacking the face of the swell, and that breeze is hammering it at 25 mph. The swell is there, sure, with heights between 7 ft and 8 ft, but the energy is all over the place, and with the wind on it like that, it's messy, blown-out junk. The combined swell energy is bouncing around from a moderate 1045 all the way up to a strong 1656, but that doesn't matter when it's blown to pieces. There's nothing to even look at for the first five days.

We finally get a little glimmer on Monday the 7th, morning time. The swell is still solid at 8 ft, coming in from the ENE with a long period of 13 seconds. That's a proper groundswell, and for a reef like Makapu'u, that period can mean real shape. The wind drops right back to a gentle 9 mph from the NE, but it's cross-onshore, which is a bit of a killer. The waves are going to be lumpy and choppy, but it's the best we've got. The forecast is only giving it a 2 out of 10, which tells you it's marginal. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

Tuesday the 8th is another tease. We get a shift in the wind, a cross-shore from the SSE, but it's fresh at 22 mph in the morning. The swell switches direction to the SSW, dropping to 6 ft to 6 ft, with a long period of 11 to 14 seconds. That's a better angle for the reef, but that wind is going to rip it up. It'll be lumpy and choppy.

Honestly, after that brief window, it's back to poor conditions. The wind swings back onshore and stays there, even when the swell has some long period juice in it. For the rest of the 16 days, it's a mix of strong onshore breeze and moderate energy swells, but none of it is going to be clean. The one standout if you’re desperate is the morning of Monday the 7th, because the swell size and period are there, and the wind is the lightest of the whole period. But don't get your hopes up.

If you're looking for a standout, it doesn't really exist here. This is mostly a setup for the wind to ruin a good thing. The only reason to paddle out would be for the challenge on the 7th or 8th, but it's going to be a fight.

- Rusty

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