Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this forecast for Makapu’u is a tough one to write. The whole 16-day window is a bust for decent surf. There’s no good option on the table, and I gotta call it like I see it.

The main problem is the wind. Pretty much every day, from the 18th of July right through to the 2nd of August, we’re looking at strong onshore trades whipping in from the ENE. That’s the kiss of death for a reef break like Makapu’u. It’s going to be choppy, bumpy, and just plain messy. Even when the swell shows up, the wind ruins it.

For the first week, from the 18th to the 24th of July, it’s a write-off. The wind is a fresh to strong breeze, at 18 to 25 mph, all onshore. The swell is mixed, with some short-period ENE windswell trying to push in, but it’s all junk. The combined energy hits moderate to strong levels (between 491 and 1261), but it’s wasted energy—poor surf conditions, every single time.

Then we hit a period from the 25th of July to the 2nd of August that’s a little more interesting in terms of swell size, but the wind stays stubborn. We’ve got some solid pulses from the east and ENE, with heights reaching 5 ft to 8 ft, and periods stretching out to 15 or 16 seconds—that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is strong to very strong (up to 1936 on the 26th). But again, the wind is always on it, 15 to 25 mph from the ENE. This setup is a classic case of “looks good on paper, awful in the water.” For a surfer, it’s a no-go. The conditions are just too rough.

There is a tiny window on the 20th and 21st of July where the swell comes from the south with a very long period (16 seconds), but it’s tiny—only 3 ft to 3 ft. The wind is still howling onshore, so it’s not worth paddling out for.

Honestly, with this relentless onshore wind and a beach-and-reef setup, this forecast looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. If you’re just looking to get wet, the water temp is about average for the time of year, sitting at 80°F on the 18th, with a normal anomaly of +0.5°F.

It’s a dry spell, but it’s not unusual for this area. A blank run like this is part of the game. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but for the next 16 days, I’d hang the board up and find something else to do.

Rusty.

Read more