Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – this outlook for the next two weeks is a tough one. Based on what I'm seeing, there ain't a single standout session in the whole 16-day window. The swell we've got coming is mostly short-period, onshore wind slop, and the break we’re looking at, Makapu'u, is an exposed reef that needs a specific sweet spot to work. The forecast keeps telling me "poor surf conditions" day after day. We’re looking at a long, blank run right up until the very end.

Water temp is sitting right around 81°, which is totally average for this time of year, so at least the water feels normal.

Friday September 11th kicks things off with a 4ft, 11-second ENE swell, but the wind is blowing onshore at 16 mph. The wave energy is moderate (385), but the onshore wind has got things chopped up and messy. No good.

Saturday September 12th through Sunday September 13th – same story. Small swell in the 3ft to 3ft range, onshore winds from the ENE and NE at 12-16 mph. The energy is weak to moderate (176-280). It’s just not worth paddling out.

Monday September 14th sees a fresh breeze at 19 mph on Monday morning, making the 3ft, 8-second swell completely unrideable. The pattern of onshore trades and small windswell holds steady.

Tuesday September 15th – we get a quick flare-up of a 4ft, 8-second swell in the morning, but it's onshore. In the afternoon, the swell drops to 2ft, and even though the period stretches to 12 seconds with a glassier E direction, there’s hardly any energy (171) and the onshore wind kills any chance.

The worst bit hits Wednesday September 16th through Friday September 18th. The wind is cranking at 22 mph onshore with ENE trades. On Wednesday morning the swell is 5ft with a terrible 6-second period (278 energy). By Thursday morning it’s 7ft with 8 seconds and strong wave energy (1176), but on a completely exposed reef with 22 mph onshore wind, that’s a washing machine. Friday morning has 6ft with 9 seconds and heavy energy (1252) – same brutal wind. This isn't surf, this is a windy mess.

Saturday September 19th through Tuesday September 22nd – the pattern holds. Onshore trades, moderate to fresh breezes, with swell heights between 3ft and 5ft. The wave energy stays in the moderate to strong range (360-1000), but the wind direction never lets up. A couple of pulses of long-period SSW swell show up (17-18 seconds) in the afternoons, but they're completely wrecked by the strong onshore wind.

Wednesday September 23rd to Thursday September 24th – more of the same. 6ft to 6ft ENE swell with a 9-second period, onshore wind at 19-22 mph. The energy is solid (629-991), but it’s just blown-out junk.

Friday September 25th – the wind finally drops. A gentle breeze from the ENE at 9 mph on Friday morning with a 6ft, 8-second E swell. The rating finally nudges up to "marginal." It’s not good, but it’s the first hint of something less awful. In the afternoon, the breeze drops to a light 6 mph from the E, with a 6ft, 8-second swell. Still just marginal.

Saturday September 26th – this is the only window that looks even remotely interesting. Saturday morning the wind swings SE at 6 mph (cross-onshore), with a 6ft, 8-second E swell and strong energy (725). It’s still marginal, but the wind is light.

Then, Saturday afternoon is the best we get. A light 9 mph S breeze goes cross-offshore, cleaning up the surface on a small 3ft, 16-second SSW groundswell. The energy is strong (727) and the forecast says “very good surf conditions.” But here's the catch – that's a long-period swell (16 seconds) on a reef break like Makapu'u, which can sometimes make it a bit too straight and fast. And with only 3ft on offer, it'll be small and ultra-consistent. The window is narrow.

So, to wrap it up: there are no good standouts. You’d be gambling everything on that late Saturday afternoon window (September 26th) at Makapu'u. For everyone else, it’s a two-week stretch of blown-out, onshore trade wind slop. It's one of those periods where you just wait for the pattern to break.

Rusty.

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