Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming up for Makapu'u.

Honestly, I’ve gotta level with you – this stretch is looking pretty grim. We’re staring down a 16-day window that’s almost entirely written off, and it’s a real heartbreaker. The whole first week and a half is just a write-off for paddle surfing. The wind is hammering onshore from the ENE relentless, strong to fresh breeze, and it’s ruining every wave. The swell is short-period junk, mostly 4 ft to 8 ft, and the energy is moderate (mostly in the 400-700 range), but it’s all slop. The water temp is about 79°F, spot on average for this time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re getting blown to bits.

The first real flicker of anything interesting pops up on the 16th of July. Thursday morning sees a tiny 2 ft swell from the SSW, but get this – the period is 13 seconds, a proper groundswell. The energy is still moderate (244), but the long period means it’ll have shape. The problem is the wind is still a strong onshore breeze, so it’s going to be messy. The 17th of July has a similar issue with a 16-second period swell, but again, that onshore wind just kills it.

Now, the standout in this whole sorry mess is looking like Sunday, the 21st of July. On Tuesday morning, we get a 3 ft swell from the E with a 15-second period – that’s very long period groundswell energy, and the energy reading jumps up to 909, which is solid moderate to strong. This is the kind of pulse that can really wrap into a reef like Makapu'u. The wind is still a fresh onshore breeze from the ENE, but for a reef break, that long period can still produce some grinding barrels even with a bit of wind. It’s not clean, but it’s the best chance of a real wave in the whole run. The following day, the 22nd, morning has a 6 ft ENE swell (8 seconds) with a huge energy of 958, but the period is short, so it’ll be a lumpy, wind-affected mess. The 23rd and 24th of July are back to tiny, long-period SSW swells with the same onshore wind problem.

For a break that’s fairly consistent, this is a rough run. The forecast is reliable for the first week – it’s just bad news. The long-range stuff on the 21st is promising but less certain. If you’re desperate, the 21st morning is your best bet. The break is advanced, so if you’re not comfortable in heavy reef surf, steer clear. The crowds are sometimes a problem, but on a day like this with the wind, it might be just you and the turtles.

Rusty.

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