Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this stretch of coast is copping a real beating from the wind for the next 16 days, and it’s making things tough. The first swell we see is on Saturday, July 18th, but don’t get excited. The wind is howling onshore from the ENE at 22 to 25 mph, and that combined with a short, weak 7 ft swell from the same direction means the surf is a complete mess. The wave energy is moderate (561), but the conditions are just blown out. It’s not worth paddling out.

The wind stays strong onshore all the way through to the end of the month. Even when the swell direction shifts to the south on Monday, July 20th, the wind is still on it, and the waves are tiny at 3 ft. The combined energy drops to 555, which is still weak. We get a few days of long-period groundswell from the south, with periods up to 24 seconds on Wednesday, July 22nd, but the swell height is only 2 ft to 3 ft, and the wind is still onshore. The energy picks up a bit (886-979), but the onshore wind kills any chance of clean waves.

The first real hope comes on Friday, July 24th, when the swell from the ENE bumps up to 8 ft, and the combined energy jumps to 1417 (strong). But the wind is still a solid 22-25 mph onshore, so the surf is going to be a chaotic, choppy mess. This pattern stays locked in. On the weekend of July 25th and 26th, the swell energy gets even bigger, hitting 1968 and 2211 (very strong), with a solid 5 ft to 6 ft east swell, but that ENE wind just won’t let up. The period is still short (7-8 seconds) and the wind is onshore, so it’s basically a kite-surfing setup, not a paddle session.

Into the first week of August, the wind finally starts to ease a little, but it’s still onshore. On Thursday, July 30th, we get a cross-on situation and the description says “moderate cross-onshore and choppy.” The swell is 5 ft from the ENE, but the period is a pathetic 6 seconds, and the energy is down to 436. Not good.

So, what’s the best on offer? Honestly, nothing stands out as a classic surf day. The closest you’ll get to a decent session is Makapu'u (Oahu) on the morning of Tuesday, July 28th, when the wind is a moderate breeze (16 mph) and the swell is 5 ft from the east with a 14-second period. The energy is strong (1051), and that longer period will give the reef some shape. But the wind is still onshore, so it’s gonna be bumpy. It’s an advanced wave, so the crowd factor is less of an issue, and the optimum swell direction is ESE, which is close to the east swell. It’s the only window with a chance of a clean-ish wave, but it’s still a gamble.

The water temperature anomaly is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Summing it up: the first week is a write-off from the wind. The second week (around July 28th) offers a glimmer of hope, but it’s far from a guarantee. If you’re desperate, that’s your window. Otherwise, wait for the next forecast update.

Rusty.

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