Makapu'u Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for Makapu'u over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m looking at a pretty grim run for the southeast shores. The trade winds are blowing strong and they’re not giving us a break. The water temperature is sitting about average for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit, but you’ll be fighting the wind more than the waves.

The first recommendation is a no-go. From Friday the 24th of July right through the weekend and into the following week, it’s a write-off. The wind is hammering onshore from the ENE at 22 to 28 mph, and the swell is a messy, short-period 7 ft to 8 ft from the same direction. The combined energy is high (1141 to 1359), but it’s all wind-chop. It’s poor surf conditions, plain and simple. This is a stretch of at least five days where you’re better off doing something else. The winds are just too strong for a decent paddle.

The only hint of something different comes on the morning of Wednesday the 29th of July. The swell bumps up to 12 ft from the ENE, with a combined energy of 3000 – that’s a lot of power. But the period is a short 11 seconds, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. The wind is still onshore at 12 mph. That’s big, ugly, and dangerous. At that size, over 8 ft, this is strictly for experts only, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. The afternoon drops to 10 ft but the wind goes cross-shore, making it lumpy. It’s a marginal forecast at best.

After that, the trade winds lock back in. From the 30th of July through to the 8th of August, we’re looking at a relentless pattern of 5 ft to 7 ft ENE windswell with onshore winds. The periods are mostly short, between 7 and 10 seconds, and the energy readings are moderate (510 to 1190). The water is going to be a mess of whitecaps. There’s a brief moment on the 2nd and 3rd of August where the swell period stretches to 15 and 16 seconds from the east, but it’s still small at 4 ft, and the wind is still onshore. That long-period groundswell would be a dream if the wind was right, but it’s not. On a beach and reef setup like this, that long period with onshore wind just means close-outs and drift.

The best bet in this whole outlook? It’s a pretty sad state of affairs, but the morning of the 8th of August offers the only glimmer. The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph onshore breeze from the east, with a 5 ft swell from the NE. The combined energy is a moderate 709. It’s still onshore, so it’s not going to be glassy, but it’s the least windy day on the whole forecast. It’s still a marginal call, but if you’re desperate, that’s your window.

This is a classic case of summer trades ruining the party. The surf is there, but the wind is relentless. It’s a long stretch of poor conditions, and honestly, this setup looks more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle guys. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d find another hobby for a week or two.

Rusty.

Read more