Hobson County Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what’s coming up for the next 16 days. Gotta be honest with you, this one’s a tough read. The whole forecast period is a bit of a struggle, with the first real sniff of anything rideable holding off for a while.

Overall Pattern

We’re looking at a long stretch of mostly poor surf conditions, with small, onshore-affected swell. The only thing that might give you a glimmer of hope is a window late in the run, from around the 27th of July, where the combined energy starts to build and the winds get a little more forgiving. But even then, it’s a marginal call.

The Gap

From now until the 27th of July, there’s absolutely nothing worth paddling out for. That’s a solid stretch of flat, messy, or just plain bad conditions. The swell is tiny, the wind is mostly onshore, and the wave comment is a consistent “poor surf conditions.” Best to save your wax for later.

The First Glimmer (27th - 29th July)

Finally, around Monday the 27th of July, things start to shift. The combined swell energy climbs into the 400s (464 on the morning of the 27th), which is a real sign of life. We’re seeing a 2 ft to 3 ft swell from the SSW, with a solid period of 17 to 19 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, which means a lot of energy for its size, better shaped waves, but also longer lulls between sets.

The catch is, the wind is mostly cross-onshore from the SW or S, at about 6 mph. It’s light, but it’s not clean. The wave comment is just “marginal surf forecast”. This is the best we’ve got on offer, but it’s not a day to call in sick. The water temperature is about 68°F, which is a whopping 5°F warmer than usual for this time of year—very unusual, so you’ll be comfortable in a spring suit or even a shorty.

The Highlight (If You Can Call It That)

The only break in the game is Hobson County Park (reef). Given the conditions, it’s the only option. The optimum swell direction for this place is WNW, and we’re getting a steady SSW groundswell. That’s not ideal, but with the reef setup, those long-period swells (over 15 seconds) can actually wrap in and produce something workable, as they tend to stand up better on a reef than a beach break. The crowd profile says “sometimes,” so you might have it to yourself, which is about the only positive here.

The Fade Out (30th July onwards)

After the 29th, it drops off again. By the 31st of July, the swell energy collapses back to single digits (6 and 7), and the swell height drops to 1.0 ft. It’s a flat, onshore mess again. The 1st of August shows a brief spike of 4 ft from the SSW, but with onshore winds, it’s nothing to get excited about. The last few days of the 16-day window are a total write-off.

Bottom Line

This is a lean period. The one small window around the 27th to 29th of July is your only chance for a surf, and it’s a marginal one. It’s a good spot for a patient, local surfer who knows the reef and doesn’t mind a bit of cross-onshore texture. The water is unseasonably warm, the crowds are likely to be low, and the swell has some deep-ocean energy, but it’s not a standout by any stretch.

Stay tuned, forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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