Guarita Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's talk about what's on the menu for Guarita.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this isn't a week for the faint of heart. We're looking at a solid run of swells, but the quality is a real mixed bag, and for a spot like this, that's the story. The water is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, sitting at 60°, about 3° cooler than usual, so you'll want a little extra rubber.

We kick off on Saturday, the 18th of July. The morning swell is a chunky 8ft from the NE, with a combined energy of 1211, which is strong. But the wind is a cross-shore, and it’s bringing a slight cross-chop. The forecast calls it marginal, and I agree – it’s not the cleanest. The afternoon drops a bit to 6ft from the ENE, but the wind stays cross, so it’s still a bit of a battle.

Sunday the 19th looks a little better. The morning swell is 6ft from the NE, but the wind swings to a cross-offshore, and the energy drops to 828. It’s cleaner. The afternoon is the real highlight of this first stretch: 5ft from the ENE with a period of 8 seconds, light cross-off breeze, and a combined energy of 556. The comment says "expect very good surf conditions," and for a moment, it feels like Guarita is going to turn it on. That’s your best bet for the early part of the week.

Monday the 20th starts with light rain and a dropping swell. The morning is 4ft from the ENE with clean, light cross-off winds (energy 274). It’s surfable but small. The afternoon turns to mush with a cross-on wind and a score of zero. Tuesday is similar – clean morning sets around 3ft, but the afternoon gets blown out. Wednesday and Thursday bring a shift in swell direction, coming from the S and SSE, but the period is short (7-8 seconds), and the energy is moderate. The wind is all over the place, and the conditions are mostly marginal.

Now, let’s jump ahead. The whole week of the 21st to the 28th is a real grind. There are a few clean mornings, like Sunday the 27th with 4ft from the E, but the afternoons are consistently poor. The wind just doesn’t play ball.

But then we get to the standouts. Mark your calendar for Wednesday, the 29th of July. The morning is magic. Glassy conditions, 5ft swell from the E with a period of 9 seconds, and a combined energy of 363. The wind is a light breeze from the NE, and it's glassy. That’s the cleanest, most user-friendly wave of the whole outlook. The afternoon is also a goer, with an offshore wind and 4ft from the ENE, period 10 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, and it will set up nicely on this reef.

Then, hold onto your board for Friday, the 31st of July. The afternoon is a beast. The forecast says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers" and it’s not kidding. We’re looking at a 8ft swell from the E, with a period of 8 seconds, and a combined energy of 1905. That’s very strong energy. The wind is a flat calm, glassy as a mirror. This is a big, powerful wave. At 8ft, it’s for experts only. If you’re not comfortable on a solid, heavy reef break, sit this one out. The tide conditions will be critical, but if you get it right, it’ll be a session to remember.

Saturday the 1st of August looks smaller again, with a 7ft from the E, but the wind is a messy cross-shore, so it’s back to the marginal stuff. Finally, Sunday the 2nd of August has a clean morning with offshore winds and 5ft from the E, a nice way to wrap things up.

So, the two real standouts are the glassy morning on the 29th of July, and the big, powerful, glassy afternoon on the 31st of July. The first one is for everyone, the second is for the crew with the big ones. The rest of the period is a lot of waiting for the wind to do the right thing.

Rusty.

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