Guarita Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you—this 16-day window for Guarita is a frustrating mix of potential and letdown. It’s a reef break that’s exposed, but it’s picky about swell direction, and the wind is often working against us. The best of the bunch is going to be Thursday morning, 16 July, and then a sneaky glassy session on Sunday evening, 19 July. Outside of those, you’ll be chasing scraps.

Alright, let’s start with Wednesday morning, 15 July. It’s a little ankle to knee high at 4ft from the SE, with a period of 9 seconds. The wind is light and cross-off from the N at 6 mph, so it’s clean. Combined wave energy is weak (355). It’s a 2 out of 10 kind of session—small, but rideable if you’re desperate.

Now, Thursday morning, 16 July, is the standout. Swell bumps up to 6ft from the NE, period 7 seconds—short period, so it’s a bit lumpy and windswell-y, but the wind is light and cross-off from the N at 6 mph, keeping it clean. Combined energy is moderate (529). This is a solid 3 out of 10, and for Guarita, that’s as good as it gets in this window. The water temp is about average for the time of year. It’s a bit too big for beginners at 6ft, and the short period means it’ll be a bit dumpy, but for a competent surfer, it’s your best chance.

Thursday afternoon turns to junk—cross-on wind from the ENE at 12 mph, 3ft, poor. Friday morning, 17 July, has 7ft from the ENE at 8 seconds, but the wind is cross-shore from the NNE at 9 mph, creating a cross-chop. Combined energy is strong (859), but the quality is marginal. This is really only for experienced surfers, and even then, it’s a grind.

Saturday, 18 July, both morning and afternoon, is more of the same: 7ft from the ENE at 9 seconds, cross-shore wind from the NNE at 9 mph. Combined energy is very strong (1072). It’s too big for beginners, and the cross-chop makes it a mess. Only experts should bother, and even then, expect a battle.

Now, Sunday, 19 July, afternoon is the other standout. The morning is light rain and cross-shore wind, but in the afternoon the wind goes glassy—N at 3 mph, dead calm. Swell is 5ft from the ENE at 9 seconds, combined energy moderate (573). It’s clean, glassy, and the 5ft is manageable for a wider range of surfers. This is a nice 3 out of 10 window, and the glassy conditions make it the best quality of the whole period.

After that, it’s a long, slow fade. Monday 20 July morning is clean but small at 4ft, and the rest of the week is a mix of poor conditions, marginal surf, and cross-onshore winds. Wednesday 22 July is tiny—2ft. Thursday 23 July afternoon sees a bump to 8ft from the ENE at 8 seconds, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy, combined energy strong (967)—only for the brave. Friday 24 July is back to small.

The tail end of the outlook, from 25 July onwards, has a couple of interesting bits. Saturday 25 July sees a long-period swell from the SSE at 15 seconds, but it’s only 2ft in the morning and 3ft in the afternoon—tiny, with moderate cross-shore wind. The long period means it’ll be super clean between sets, but there’s barely any energy. Sunday 26 July morning is glassy from the W at 3 mph, with 2ft from the S at 11 seconds—another tiny, clean moment. The rest of the run into 30 July is mostly junk: increasing wind, cross-onshore, and swell that’s either too small or too messy.

Bottom line: Two decent windows—Thursday 16 July morning and Sunday 19 July afternoon. The rest is a wait-and-see. For a reef break like Guarita, it’s a tough forecast. The water’s about average for July, so no surprises there. Keep your expectations low, and if the wind shifts, you might get a few more. But for now, I’d pencil in that Sunday glassy session and hope for the best.

Rusty.

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