Guarita Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re looking at a pretty drawn-out period at Guarita, with a few moments that could be magic, but plenty of time to sit it out too.

Right now, the water is sitting at a chilly 59°, which is a full 5° colder than normal for this time of year. That’s a notable drop, so definitely suit up for this one.

The pattern starts off quiet. Monday the 6th through to Thursday morning the 9th is pretty flat and ordinary, with waves hovering around that 2ft to 4ft mark, but the wind state is mostly “marginal” or “poor.” There’s a small window on Tuesday afternoon the 7th with glassy conditions and a tiny 2ft ESE swell, but it’s really just a splash.

Things start to look up on Friday the 10th. We’ve got a glassy morning with a 3ft ESE swell pushing in at 11 seconds, and the energy is building moderately (228). That afternoon gets even better—same glassy wind, the swell bumps up to 3ft, still from the ESE, and the combined energy jumps to 342. This is the first real standout. The water’s clean, the sets have a bit of push, and the light air means it’s going to be smooth. This is the pick of the first week for sure.

Saturday the 11th has some promise too. That morning is a bit messy with a cross-shore wind, but the swell is 4ft from the ESE with a very long 14-second period (energy at 673). That’s got power, but the wind isn’t helping. The afternoon though—this could be the session of the week. Glassy, 4ft of ESE groundswell at 13 seconds, and the combined energy hits 551. It’s labeled as “very good” and for good reason. The wind is off, the swell has some real weight, and the sets will be clean. Keep an eye on the tide there, but this could be firing.

Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th see a shift. The swell turns SSE, bumps up to 5ft to 5ft, but the wind gets up. Sunday afternoon has a fresh 19 mph cross-off breeze, which is clean but strong, pushing into the 5ft range (905 energy). That’s getting punchy. For the experienced crew, it’s manageable, but beginners should sit this out—5ft with that much wind is not your day.

Tuesday the 14th morning has a 3ft SSE swell with a light cross-off breeze and 401 energy. It’s clean, but nothing huge. That afternoon gets choppy, so morning is the call.

Now, Wednesday the 15th morning is another one to circle. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the NE with a short 7-second period and 634 energy. The wind is light cross-off, so it’s clean, but that short period means the wave shapes might be a bit crumbly and lumpy. It’s surfable, but don't expect those long walls.

From Thursday the 16th onward, the swell drops off steadily. A 3ft SE groundswell at 13 seconds on Thursday morning is good for a clean, cruisy morning with the light wind. But after that, it fizzles. The weekend and into the next week (the 17th to the 21st) is mostly poor, with small waves (1ft to 4ft), onshore winds, and plenty of chop. There’s a brief uptick on Monday the 20th with a 3ft SSE swell at a very long 15 seconds (562 energy), but it comes with an onshore wind, so it’s a miss.

The standout sessions are Friday the 10th afternoon and Saturday the 11th afternoon. Both have glassy conditions, good swell size, and clean waves. The longer period swells later on are better suited to the reef at Guarita than a beach break, so the shape should hold.

Rusty.

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