Guarita Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I ain’t gonna sugarcoat it—this forecast for Guarita is a tough one to read. We’ve got a solid 16 days of data here, but the first real standout doesn’t come for a while. For the first part of the run, it’s all small, short-period slop. There are days where you might get a clean little wave, but nothing that’ll get your heart racing.

Let’s start from the beginning. The water at Guarita is sitting at a chilly 59°F, which is 5°F colder than normal for this time of year – that’s properly unusual, so you’ll want a thick wetsuit. The combined energy is weak, barely topping 200 (198 to be exact) on Tuesday morning. That’s not even a workout.

The first glimmer of hope hits on Wednesday the 8th of July. Wednesday morning has a clean 3ft (0.8m) swell from the south with an 11-second period and light NNW cross-offshore winds. Combined energy jumps to a moderate 230. That’s surfable, clean, and while it’s not huge, it’s the best of the early week.

Then things get rough. Thursday the 9th and that whole run up to Saturday the 11th is plagued by cross-onshore and onshore winds, with poor surf conditions and small, weak swell. On Friday the 10th though, there’s a moment – Friday morning is glassy, with a light SSW breeze at 3 mph. The wave height is still just 3ft (0.8m) from the ESE with a 10-second period, combined energy at 189. It’s ordinary, but glassy means clean, so if you’re desperate you could get a few.

Now, the real standout. Sunday the 12th of July. Sunday morning is the pick of the whole period. We’ve got a 6ft (1.7m) swell from the SSE with an 11-second period, and the wind is a light north breeze at 3 mph coming cross-offshore. That’s clean. The combined energy hits a strong 937 – that’s proper push. The guidance says this break is for advanced surfers, and with the swell over 5ft it’s getting too big for beginners, but the wind and shape should make for some solid lefts. The crowd factor says sometimes, so you might have some company, but it’s worth it. This is easily the best morning of the entire outlook.

After that, Monday the 13th is a write-off thanks to a fresh 19 mph southwesterly cross-offshore wind that’s too strong for comfort. The swell drops and the rest of the second week is a mix of small, short-period windswell (ENE, 7-8 seconds) with poor cross-on and onshore winds. The combined energy stays weak to moderate, mostly below 200. Tuesday the 14th morning is glassy again with 2ft (0.7m) from the SSE and an 8-second period, but it’s just ordinary.

Basically, if you’re a surfer, you wait for Sunday the 12th of July. That’s the one. The rest is either small, choppy, or blown out. For a break that’s only exposed to an east optimum and we’re getting mostly south and ESE swell with cross-winds most days, it’s no surprise the forecast is patchy. It doesn’t tend to stay poor for long around here though, so keep an eye on the charts.

Stay safe, keep warm.
Rusty.

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