Guarita Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with you. The next 16 days at Guarita are a mixed bag of could-be and maybe, with one clear standout that’s worth circling on the calendar. The water’s sitting at a chilly 60°F, which is a whopping 4°F colder than usual for this time of year—so if you’re paddling out, a decent steamer is non-negotiable. That’s well over a degree colder than normal, and you’ll feel it.

The first real action kicks off Saturday morning, July 4th. Swell is a solid 7 ft from the SSE, with a 12-second period, pumping in a combined energy of 1149 (moderate). That’s some proper groundswell. But here’s the catch: at 7 ft, it’s pushing into expert territory, and the wind is a cross-off from the WSW at 15 km/h. The forecast has it “marginal” due to tide, but the morning session is clean. The swell direction is SSE, which isn’t the optimum E for Guarita’s reef setup, so it’s not going to be perfect—still, there’ll be some meaty ones for the experienced crew. Crowds are possible (sometimes), so keep your eyes peeled.

Sunday morning, July 5th, drops a bit to 6 ft from the SSE, 11-second period, and combined energy of 634. The wind swings N at 10 km/h, cross-off again, and the conditions are clean. It’s a smaller, more manageable size for advanced surfers, but still not quite the ideal direction. The afternoon turns to chop with a cross-on NE wind, so don’t bother.

Monday morning, July 6th, is glassy—wind from the W at 5 km/h, dead calm. Swell is 4 ft from the SE, 10-second period, energy at 344. It’s clean as a whistle, but small. Fun for a longboard if you’re keen, but not going to blow your mind.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Tuesday, July 7th, through to Monday, July 13th, the swell drops below 3 ft most days, with energy numbers dipping into the 90s and 100s—weak stuff. There are a few glassy mornings (like Saturday, July 10th, and Sunday, July 12th), but the waves are tiny, around 2 ft to 3 ft. It’s a real flat patch. Not worth a paddle.

Now, here’s the one to get excited about: Tuesday, July 14th, morning. The swell jumps to 7 ft from the S, with a 11-second period, and the combined energy screams 1911 (strong to very strong). That’s a proper pulse. The wind is cross-off from the SW at 15 km/h, keeping it clean. The forecast calls it “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” At 7 ft, it’s edging into expert-only, and the S direction isn’t Guarita’s optimum E, so expect it to be a bit raw—but for a reef break, that long period will give it some grunt and shape. This is the standout. Crowds are possible, but with the size, it’ll thin out the kooks.

The afternoon of the 14th drops to 7 ft, still solid, but the wind goes cross-on from the S, so it’s onshore chop. Skip it.

The rest of the second week gets messy. Wednesday, July 15th, through to Saturday, July 18th, is a mix of small to moderate swell (4 ft to 6 ft) but with poor wind—cross or cross-on, choppy, and onshore. The energy is moderate (200 to 927), but the quality is tanked. Saturday, July 18th, is a write-off with cloudy skies and cross winds.

Finally, Sunday, July 19th, morning sees a new pulse: 8 ft from the ENE, 8-second period, energy at 1303. That’s a short-period, windswell-style wave, not the clean groundswell we want. The wind is cross-off from the WSW at 15 km/h, so it’s clean, but at 8 ft, it’s big and short-period—only for the experts. The afternoon gets worse with a fresh cross-shore from the SSW at 30 km/h and lumpy chop. Not worth it.

So, the takeaway: Tuesday morning, July 14th, is your best bet. That 7 ft S swell with clean wind is the real deal. Saturday morning, July 4th, is a decent backup for the brave. Everything else is either flat, chopped out, or for the gluttons for punishment. For the rest of the week, it’s a longboard or a day off. Stay stoked.

Rusty.

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