Flagler Avenue Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this 16-day run for Flagler Avenue is a tough one. The forecast is basically a long stretch of small, weak surf with not much behind it. The combined swell energy hangs between 12 and 101 (weak to barely moderate) across the whole period, and the wave heights never get above 3 ft. The swell direction is mostly from the ESE to E, with periods hovering around 6 to 9 seconds, so it’s a mix of weak windswell and short-period swell. The best you can call it is “surfable but very ordinary” on a few days, and even then, it’s marginal.

Starting off, there’s nothing to get excited about for the first week. From Tuesday 14 July right through to Sunday 19 July, the surf is tiny—1 ft to 1 ft at best. The winds are light to moderate, sometimes glassy or offshore, but with virtually no wave energy (combined energy as low as 15), it’s flat. The water temperature is 84°F with no anomaly, so it’s just normal warm July water. The break is a beach/jetty setup, very consistent, but with NNE as the optimum swell direction and this weak E/ESE swell, it’s not working. Crowds are often present, but with this lack of surf, the lineup will be empty anyway.

The only hint of something surfable comes on Wednesday 22 July in the afternoon. We get a glassy, 2 ft wave from the E at 8 seconds, with combined energy of 59. The wind is calm, so it’ll be clean, but it’s still small and weak. The following morning, Thursday 23 July, has a clean 1 ft with light offshore wind, but that’s not enough to get out of bed for. For the rest of the second week, from 24 July onward, the swell stays stuck at 2 ft to 2 ft, with combined energy only reaching 101 on one afternoon (28 July). The wind switches between offshore and cross-offshore, keeping it clean, but the wave size and period just don’t offer any punch.

There are no standouts here. The best day is arguably the afternoon of 28 July, when the swell hits 3 ft from the ESE at 9 seconds, with a combined energy of 101. Even then, the wind is cross-offshore from the SSE, so it’ll be clean but gutless. The longer-period swell never arrives—periods stay below 9 seconds the whole time. For a beach/jetty break, that’s a recipe for weak, lumpy waves.

Bottom line: If you’re a beginner wanting tiny, clean waves to learn on, the 22 July afternoon or the 28 July morning might be worth a paddle, but don’t expect much. For everyone else, this is a blank run. The surf just isn’t there. The good news is Flagler is very consistent, so it tends not to stay flat for long—forecasts can change. But for now, leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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