Flagler Avenue Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, checking out what the next sixteen days have in store for us at Flagler Avenue. Honestly, it’s a real mixed bag, and you’re going to need some patience. We’re looking at a whole lot of small, weak surf with a few brighter spots if you can wait it out.

The first week and a half is pretty grim. From Friday the 4th right through to the 12th, we’re stuck with tiny, weak waves. The combined swell energy is mostly in that weak zone (under 100), just a dribble of energy. The wind is all over the place, but the swell is just too small to make anything of it. Expect a lot of days where it’s barely breaking, if at all. The one minor highlight in that stretch is Wednesday morning, the 9th of September, where the swell energy bumps up a touch to a moderate 114, but the swell is still only 3 ft from the NE with a short 8-second period and a cross-shore wind. It’s still just ordinary, surfable waves but nothing to get excited about.

The real action doesn’t show up until Sunday the 13th. That morning is where it’s at. We’ve got a solid 6 ft swell from the ENE, pushing the combined energy up to a strong 310. The wind goes glassy, and the report says it’s "expect good surf conditions". That’s the standout window. The water temp is sitting at 82°, which is about 2° colder than usual for this time of year, so it’s a bit nippy but nothing shocking. The period is only 7 seconds though, so it’s a bit of a short-period windswell, but with that size and glassy conditions, Flagler Avenue should actually have some fun, punchy waves rolling in. It’s a break that’s very consistent and exposed to the swell, so it’ll pick it up. The morning will be the time to go before the seabreeze messes it up.

That glassy window doesn’t last. The afternoon of the 13th sees a bigger 6 ft swell, but the wind swings cross-onshore, making it a choppy mess. It’s a classic case of the wind killing a good thing.

After that Sunday, we’ve got another lull with smaller surf through Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th, before we get one more decent shot. Friday the 18th of September morning looks promising again, with a 4 ft ENE swell, a glassy calm wind, and a combined energy of 214. That’s moderate energy, and glassy conditions early again. That’s your second pick of the fortnight.

Then Saturday the 19th morning finishes the run with a 5 ft ENE swell and glassy conditions, combined energy of 240. Another good early window.

So, bottom line: Flagler Avenue is going to be a waiting game. The first nine days are basically a write-off. The best bets are the mornings of Sunday the 13th, Friday the 18th, and Saturday the 19th. Get on it early when the wind is glassy, because the afternoon sea breeze will chop it up every time.

Keep an eye on the forecasts, though. It tends not to stay poor for long around here, and things can turn around quick.

Rusty.

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