Crow Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what we’ve got for Crow Point over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, I gotta tell ya, this is a tough one. The surf outlook is bleak. There are no good days in the window for a paddle out. I’m seeing nothing but "poor surf conditions" across the board, so let’s break down this flat spell.

The water temperature is sittin’ at a balmy 64°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a solid 4°F above average. That’s notable, but it doesn’t help the waves.

We start off on Saturday, July 11th, with tiny 1ft swell from the WSW, but the wind is a fresh 16 mph from the east, making it a messy cross-offshore. The combined wave energy is weak at 29. That’s a no-go. This sets the tone for the next week. From Saturday through to Monday, July 20th, we’re looking at a long stretch of flat, weak surf. Swell heights barely tickle 1.0ft to 1ft most days, with the energy bottoming out at single digits and low double digits like 10 and 12. The wind is all over the place – mostly cross-off or cross-shore – but there’s just no juice in the water.

There is a little bump in energy around Tuesday, July 21st, as the swell pushes to 4ft with a combined energy of 148. But the wind shifts hard onshore from the SW at 22 mph, making it completely blown out and choppy. The period is a short, weak 6 seconds. Not worth paddling out. That pattern of onshore, choppy conditions sticks around through to Thursday, July 23rd, where the swell climbs to 5ft and 5ft, and energy hits 291 and 257. The wind is still cross-onshore, so the quality is poor.

Friday, July 24th, brings a tease. We get a fresh offshore wind from the NE at 22 mph in the morning, with a 3ft west swell. The wind is clean, but the period is a weak 9 seconds and the energy is only 157. The set waves would be small and weak. It looks clean, but it won’t hold your interest.

Now, the big one. Saturday, July 25th, the models are showing a serious pulse of energy: 10ft of west swell with a combined energy of 1085. That’s strong. But look at the wind – it’s a 16 mph cross-onshore from the west. That’s a recipe for huge, chopped-out, dangerous conditions. At 10ft, this is strictly for experts only, and even then, the onshore wind will make it a washing machine. It’s a no-go.

So what’s the bottom line? There is absolutely no standout option here. The entire 16-day forecast is a washout. For a break like Crow Point, which is a sheltered spot that "rarely breaks," this kind of blank run is not unusual. It takes a very specific west swell and clean offshore wind to get it working, and that combo just isn’t lining up. We’ll have to wait for the forecasts to change.

Stay patient, check back in a few days. Sometimes the models flip.

Rusty

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