Black Middens Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s look at what we’ve got coming up. It’s Rusty here, and I’ll level with you – this isn’t going to be a cracker. There’s a long, flat spell ahead with tiny surf and messy conditions for most of the next couple weeks. No real stand-out day, but I’ll go through it so you know what’s what.

From Wednesday, July 29th right through to the morning of Sunday, August 9th, it’s pretty much a dead zone. Wave heights barely scrape 1 ft to 1.0 ft, with combined swell energy mostly in the weak range – values from 28 down to single digits. The wind is all over the place: cross-onshore, cross-shore, not much to get excited about. Even when there’s a bit of offshore wind on the 2nd of August morning, the swell is still just 1.0 ft from the north with a period of 8 seconds – no power. You’d be bobbing around waiting for a ripple.

The only break in the picture is Black-Middens, a sheltered reef-and-river spot that really needs a proper north-northeast push to get going. Water temperature is 61°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – about 2°F above average, so it’s got a little warmth to it.

Now let’s jump to Sunday, August 9th. That morning we see a pulse of 7 ft north swell with a period of 7 seconds, and combined swell energy jumps to 429 – that’s solid moderate-to-strong energy. But here’s the catch: wind is light cross-onshore from the south-southeast, making the surface messy. The afternoon drops to 6 ft but stays bumpy. At 7 ft, that’s getting into expert-only territory for power, but the wind kills it for quality. Honestly, with the wind angle and the setup, this spot might be more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfing.

Monday, August 10th stays around 3 ft to 3 ft with onshore wind and rain – again, not a recommendation.

Tuesday, August 11th brings 3 ft from the north-northeast, but the wind swings cross-shore from the west at 9-12 mph, putting a chop on it. Still poor.

Wednesday, August 12th and Thursday, August 13th? Cleaner winds sneaking back in – cross-offshore on the 12th and even moderate offshore on the 13th – but the swell has backed off to 1 ft to 3 ft. The energy is weak again, in the 40 to 70 range. Small and weak, but at least it’ll look glassy.

So, bottom line: if you’re waiting for decent waves, you’re out of luck for the first nine days, and then there’s a short, lumpy window on the 9th that’s more about size than quality. The rest is either too small, too windy, or both. This is one of those stretches where you hope the forecast changes. It can’t stay this quiet forever.

Rusty.

Read more