Black Middens Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here.

Look, I’m gonna keep it real with you. The next couple of weeks around Black Middens (reef/river/pier) are a real struggle. There’s a big, empty gap right at the start. From Tuesday the 7th right through until Saturday the 19th of July, the surf is just not happening. It’s tiny, weak, and the models are giving us a solid “poor” rating for waves day after day. The combined swell energy is mostly in the single digits or low double digits, barely enough to get a ripple going. You’re looking at waves that are 0.6ft to 2ft for the first week, with a few little pulses around 3ft to 3ft. The problem is the swell direction is mostly from the N or NNE, which is the optimum direction for this spot, but there just isn't any power behind it. The period is short, mostly 6 to 9 seconds, so it's all local windswill, not proper groundswell.

The water temp is about 57°, which is about normal for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The wind is actually workable a lot of the time – light to gentle breezes, often cross-off or even glassy on a few afternoons – but with no swell to work with, it’s just a flat, clean lake. From Thursday the 16th we start to see some stronger offshore winds, but the swell is still missing until the 18th.

Now, the one true standout – the only time in this whole 16-day window that gets a nod – is Sunday the 19th of July. Both morning and afternoon are looking like the best bet. The swell finally pushes up to about 5ft, coming from the NNE, which is right in the sweet spot for Black Middens. The period jumps to 10 seconds in the morning, giving it some proper energy. The combined swell energy is a healthy 492 in the morning and 409 in the afternoon, so there’s a decent amount of push out there. The wind is a light breeze, cross-off, so the face should be clean. This is a reef/river/pier setup, so that longer period swell (10 seconds) will wrap in nicely and give you some good shape. It’s not too big for intermediates, but at 5ft, beginners might find it a bit of a handful. The crowds are listed as “sometimes”, so you might have a few others out, but it shouldn’t be a zoo.

After that, Monday the 20th drops back to about 4ft with a cross-shore wind, and Tuesday the 21st sees a bit more size at about 6ft but with cross-onshore and rain, so the quality is shot. The 22nd looks cleaner, but again, smaller.

So, in short: the first 11 days are a write-off. If you’ve got a board shaped like a door, you might be happy, but for pure surfing, sit tight. The only real window is Sunday the 19th. Make the most of it, because it doesn’t look like it’ll last.

Rusty.

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