Black Middens Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards. Straight up, this is a tough stretch. For a solid two weeks, Black Middens is barely whispering, and most days the surf is just too weak to bother with. But if you’re patient, there’s a real flash of something special right at the very end of the window.

For the first twelve days or so, from Sunday the 12th through to Thursday the 24th of July, it’s mostly a story of tiny, weak swell and poor conditions. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least a wetsuit top might be enough. But the waves are scarce—most days we’re looking at ankle-to-knee high dribble. Winds are mostly light to moderate, often cross-off or offshore, which keeps the surface clean, but there’s just no push. The combined energy of the swell is barely registering, often in the single digits or low double digits (like 4 or 67). Monday the 13th has a brief pulse of 4 ft to 4 ft from the NE with clean offshore winds NNE at 12 mph, giving it a bit more energy (121 to 149), but the wave comment still calls it poor. Even then, it’s short period, weak, and just not worth getting wet for.

Now, there’s a big gap of almost nothing until we get to Thursday the 24th of July. The morning of that day is the one true standout. Swell jumps up to 8 ft from the N, with a period of 9 seconds—that’s a solid groundswell. The combined energy rockets to 1446, which is strong. Winds are offshore from the NNW at 12 mph, so Black Middens (a reef/river/pier setup) should be clean and lined up. That’s a size that’s only for experienced surfers though; anything over 8 ft is expert-only, and this is right on the edge. It’s an inconsistent break here, so don’t expect endless sets, but when they come through, they’ll have some push. The afternoon side drops to 6 ft from the NNE (energy 424) with lighter cross-off wind, still good but not the standout.

After that, it drops back to tiny, weak, and mostly onshore junk for the rest of the period. A couple of days in the middle of the third week, like the 23rd, show a 8 ft swell from the N, but the wind is cross-on and choppy, and the wave comment is poor. It’s not rideable.

So here’s the call: forget the first two weeks. Mark your calendar for the morning of Thursday the 24th of July. From about dawn, Black Middens will have the best wave we’ve seen in the whole outlook—a punchy, offshore groomed chest-to-head high wave from the north. It’s a short window, and the break is inconsistent, so patience is key. If you’re an intermediate or above, it’s worth the wait. Beginners, sit this one out; it’ll be too meaty for you, and the crowds can show up here sometimes.

Rusty.

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