Black Middens Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you – the forecast for Black Middens is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, dry 16-day window where the surf just doesn’t show up in any meaningful way. The first real chance of anything rideable doesn’t kick in until Saturday the 18th, so you’re looking at nearly a week of flat or tiny, poor-quality waves before that.

Even then, it’s not a celebration. On Saturday the 18th, we get a pulse of swell pushing 5ft to 6ft from the NNE, with a period of 7-8 seconds – short-period stuff. The combined energy hits 204 (moderate) in the morning, building to 356 (still moderate) in the afternoon. The wind is offshore or cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but the commentary says "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions." It’s not a standout; it’s just the best of a bad lot.

Sunday the 19th morning is the only real glimmer. The swell drops to 5ft from the NNE, period stretches to 9 seconds, and the wind goes glassy from the SE. That’s a rare clean moment. Combined energy is 286 (moderate). But even then, the description is "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions." Crowds are listed as "sometimes" at this break, so you might have a few others out, but it’s not going to be a circus.

The rest of the window is a write-off. Tiny waves, poor wind directions, and a lot of cross-shore or onshore slop. By the time we get to late July, we’re looking at 0.3ft swells with a few knots of wind. The water temp is sitting at 60°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only interesting thing here.

Honestly, for a break like Black Middens, this kind of blank run is more normal than not. It’s inconsistent and sheltered, and it needs the right NNE swell to work. This isn’t it. If you’re desperate, the glassy Sunday morning might give you a couple of sloppy ones, but don’t expect much. The forecast can change, but right now, it’s a long wait for very little.

Rusty.

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