Black Middens Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are a bit of a slow burn before things finally fire up. We’ve got one standout window coming, but you’re gonna need a bit of patience to get there.

Right now, we’re looking at a pretty flat stretch. For the first few days, we’re seeing tiny, weak swells that just aren't doing anything for us. The energy is super low, like less than 20 on the dial, and it's mostly short-period windswell that won't have any push. Saturday and Sunday are write-offs, with ankle-biters in the 0.7ft to 1ft range. The water temp at Black Middens is sitting at 59°, which is pretty much spot-on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. It’s a bit of a dead start, but hang tight.

We’re looking at a gap of a few quiet days here until the middle of the coming week. The wind stays mostly cross or light, which isn't helping much. There’s a slight pulse of energy around the 19th (Tuesday), with a 3ft swell showing up, but it's still messy and the energy is only moderate, around 328. It’s still not worth paddling out for.

The real action starts to build on Friday the 22nd. The swell starts to fill in proper, with a consistent 3ft to 4ft from the NNE, and crucially, we get a clean offshore wind out of the north. The energy jumps up to that moderate range – 129 on the 22nd morning, climbing to 189 by the afternoon. This is where it starts to get interesting.

Now, here’s your standout window. It all comes together on Sunday the 23rd and peaks on Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th. The swell really kicks in, jumping to 6ft on Sunday morning, then up to a solid 7ft in the arvo. By Monday, we’re looking at a proper 8ft of NNE groundswell, with strong energy readings of 850 on the morning session. Tuesday morning is the absolute peak, with a massive energy reading of 1627 and the swell holding at a strong 8ft. This is a powerful, long-period groundswell that’s got some serious push.

For this size, we’re talking expert territory here, folks. Anything over 8ft is strictly for the big dogs. The north wind is offshore and clean, which is a major plus, so the lines should be nice and clean. But you gotta remember, this is Black Middens, a reef/river/pier setup that’s inconsistent and sheltered. It's not a break that handles these conditions all the time. It’s a spot that’s usually a bit fickle, so when it turns on like this, it’s worth paying attention to. The period is long, over 9 seconds, which is prime for a point or reef. It’s also a spot where you might have to share it, so expect some company.

After that peak, it starts to back off. Tuesday afternoon drops to 7ft, and then Wednesday the 26th eases back to a more manageable 5ft, still clean and offshore, but the power is fading. From Thursday the 27th onwards, it’s a steady decline back into the doldrums, with the swell dropping under 3ft and the wind shifting onshore. The energy fades back to those low two-digit numbers.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a total washout. The standout is definitely the Monday 24th and Tuesday 25th of August, but you better be at the top of your game and ready for a heavy, powerful wave. The Sunday 23rd also looks good as a slightly smaller, but still excellent, option. For the rest of us, it’s a time to clean your board and watch the forecast for the next run.

Alright, that’s the picture. Stay stoked.

Rusty

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