The Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into this one.

Right off the bat, I’ll be honest with you – the outlook for The Cove over the next 16 days is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions ahead, with only a couple of brief windows that might be worth a look. The water temp is sitting at 54°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real chance to paddle out doesn’t come until the morning of Thursday, July 10th, and even then, it’s a struggle. The pattern shows a lot of small, weak swell with onshore or cross-shore winds. The first few days are a write-off. From Thursday the 9th through to the end of the first week, we’re looking at swell heights mostly under 4ft, with periods between 8 and 11 seconds, and the wind is almost always cross-on or cross, making things messy. The combined energy numbers are low, in the 30 to 300 range, so there’s just not much power in the water.

The first faint glimmer of hope comes around Monday morning, July 13th. The wind shifts to a cross-off direction from the ESE, and the waves clean up. It’s only 2ft from the west, but with a 9-second period, you might find a little fun one if you’re desperate. The energy is weak (51) though – don’t expect much.

Then, on Tuesday, July 14th, we get a bit more. The morning shows a 4ft swell from the WNW with an 11-second period – that’s a proper groundswell, which means better shape and more energy. The combined energy jumps to 321, so there’s something to work with. The wind is cross-off from the ESE, so it’s clean. This is probably the best morning of the first week, but keep in mind the waves might be a little straight for a beach break, so it’s better if you can find a reef or a point.

After that, it drops off again. The middle of the week sees a big gap from Wednesday the 15th through to Sunday the 19th. The swell is tiny, the wind is all over the place, and the energy numbers are pathetic – mostly under 50. There’s a moment on the morning of Thursday, July 16th, where the wind goes glassy, but the swell is only 1ft. You’d be floating more than surfing.

Now, the standouts in this whole outlook are few and far between. The clear winner is the morning of Tuesday, July 21st. The forecast shows a 5ft swell from the north, with an 8-second period, and the wind is a clean cross-off from the SSW. The combined energy is a solid 627, which is moderate to strong. This is the best combo of size and clean conditions we get. The Cove is exposed to the northwest, so this north swell has some good direction to it. It’s still a bit on the smaller side for experts, but for intermediates, this is the morning to circle on the calendar. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

The other one to keep an eye on is the afternoon of Friday, July 24th. It’s a long way off, so treat it as promising but not certain. We’ve got a 6ft swell from the WNW, with an 11-second period, and the wind goes cross-off from the east. The energy is strong at 815. The conditions are expected to be very good. But again, it’s a long-range call.

One thing to note: in the second week, around the 23rd and 24th, we see some big, powerful swells – over 8ft with periods of 13 seconds. The combined energy rockets up to over 2000. That’s serious, but it’s also messy. The wind is strong, cross-shore, and choppy. For a beach break, that’s more of a ripper for kite surfers than paddle surfers. The big W and WNW swells are also very long-period (13 seconds), which can make them break too straight at a beach break. The Cove is a reef, so that could actually help, but the wind is the problem.

So, bottom line: the first week is mostly a washout. The best bet is the morning of Tuesday, July 21st, with a solid 5ft north swell and clean cross-off winds. The second week has potential on the 24th, but it’s a gamble. The rest of the time, you’re better off checking the forecast again or picking up a hobby.

Rusty out.

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