Caerhays Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Caerhays.

Honestly, looking at the full 16-day window, it’s a tough watch. The pattern is almost entirely flat, with very little to get excited about. There’s a big gap of nothing happening for the first week and a half, with the first real sign of life not showing up until the very end of the period. The water at Caerhays is measuring at 66°F in the early part, which is nearly 5°F warmer than what we’d usually expect for July – that’s a very unusual warm spell, but it doesn’t help with the lack of waves.

We’re looking at a long stretch of tiny, weak swell from the 17th up until the 29th of July. Most days show heights under 1 ft, periods under 8 seconds, and combined energy barely reaching double digits (e.g., 11 or 7). It’s the kind of flat spell where you’re better off doing anything else. On the 19th of July, Sunday morning, we get a little spike to 3 ft but it’s coming from the ESE with a short, weak 5-second period and a strong cross-shore wind of 19 mph, creating lumpy chop. That’s not surfable.

The situation improves slightly around the 29th of July, Wednesday afternoon, with a 4 ft swell from the WSW, but the period is still a poor 4-seconds and the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-offshore. The conditions are clean, but the wave quality just isn’t there for a proper paddle session. The energy is still weak at 54.

Now, the one true standout in this entire forecast arrives on the 30th of July, Thursday morning. This is the only window that looks worth paying attention to. We’ve got a 3 ft swell from the WSW, but the key here is the period jumps to 12 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy hits 264 (moderate wave energy), which is a massive jump from everything else. Wind is a light Easterly at 3 mph, creating a light cross-shore breeze. It’s small, but that longer period means the waves will have some shape and push. Because of the short period we’ve seen all month, this longer period will be a welcome change, though at a beach break like Caerhays, it might break a little straight. For a dedicated surfer, this is the morning to be in the water, despite the small size. After that, the forecast slips back into tiny, weak swell for the first of August.

So, to sum it up: it’s a long, flat run until the very end of July. The 30th of July morning is the best, and really the only, bet on offer. It’s not a classic, but it’s something.

- Rusty

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