Boiler Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Boiler Bay over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – it’s looking pretty grim. The whole 16-day window is mostly blown out or tiny, with barely a moment that’s worth paddling out for.

The water temp is a massive shocker – it’s sitting at 53°F, which is a whopping 7°F colder than normal for this time of year. That’s very unusual, so if you do get in, you’ll want a thick suit.

We kick off on Monday the 17th of August with some weak 2ft SW swell, but a 12 mph NNW wind has it onshore and messy. That sets the tone. The following days are more of the same: Tuesday and Wednesday see the swell bumping up to 3ft from the WNW with moderate cross-onshore winds, keeping things choppy. The wave energy stays moderate, peaking around 494 to 510 (units) Wednesday afternoon, but the conditions are just poor.

Thursday the 20th shows a little more push, with the morning seeing 5ft from the NW and light cross-onshore winds. The combined energy hits 830 (units) – that's moderate, bordering on strong – but it’s still cross-onshore and the forecast calls it marginal. It’s a tease, not a treat.

Now, Friday the 21st of August is the one bright spot in this whole outlook. The morning shows a clean 3ft swell from the WNW, but it’s the wind that makes it special – a light 3 mph cross-offshore breeze from the WSW. That’s glassy, clean conditions. The swell period is 11 seconds, a decent groundswell that’ll give it some shape. The afternoon stays clean with 2ft from the SW. For a reef break that’s exposed to the SW, this is the only real window. The crowd factor is “sometimes” here, so you might have company, but with the whole rest of the window looking this bad, it won’t be packed.

After Friday, it’s back downhill fast. Saturday the 22nd has a 4ft NW swell but a short 8-second period and the wind goes cross onshore again. By the afternoon, it’s a 16 mph onshore blow. Sunday the 23rd sees 5ft of junk from the NNW with a pitiful 6-second period – that’s weak, windswell – and the wind stays onshore. That size is getting too big for beginners in those messy conditions.

From Monday the 24th all the way through to the 1st of September, the swell drops back to under 2ft with periods ranging from short 6 seconds up to a very long 18 seconds. That long-period stuff (15-18 seconds) will have energy but it’s prone to breaking straight on a beach setup, and since Boiler Bay is a reef, it might offer a bit more shape. But the wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore from the NNW at 9-19 mph, ruining any chance of quality. The wave energy stays in the moderate range (many readings between 224 and 504), but the wind keeps the surface blown out.

Late August (the 27th) has a tiny 2ft SW groundswell with a 15-second period and a light cross-onshore wind – that’s marginal, not worth the drive.

So, bottom line: Forget the first week and a half. The only day with a real recommendation is Friday the 21st. Get on it early for the cleanest conditions. After that, it’s a long ten-day gap of poor surf until the end of the window. If you absolutely had to, the morning of the 27th of August has the smallest of windows, but it’s a gamble. For this spot, a long blank run like this is pretty normal when the wind locks in from the north.

Stay patient, keep the board waxed, and wait for Friday.

Rusty.

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