Boiler Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Boiler Bay look pretty grim for a proper paddle session. This is a reef break that takes an exposed SW direction, and while the optimum swell is SW, the onshore and cross-onshore winds just won’t let up for most of the period. The water is sitting at a very unusual 53°, which is about 6° colder than normal for this time of year – that’s a seriously notable chill.

We start off with nothing on Tuesday August 18 – just 2ft of SW swell with a 14-second period, but it’s cross-on from the NNW and the comment says poor surf. The combined energy is 361 (moderate), but it’s choppy. Wednesday August 19 and Thursday August 20 stay in the same rut: 3ft WNW swell, periods around 11–12 seconds, but always that cross-on wind and “poor” or “marginal” ratings. Friday August 21 morning is more of the same at 3ft WNW, but by the afternoon we get a bit of a shift – 2ft SW swell with a 14-second period, light cross-shore wind, but it’s still only marginal.

Now, Saturday August 22 morning is the one bright moment. We’ve got 4ft NW swell with an 8-second period – that’s a short period, but the wind is light cross-offshore from the SSW. The combined energy is 286 (moderate), and the comment says “clean.” That’s your best bet in the whole forecast. It’s small and short-period, but it’ll be glassy and surfable. After that, the wind flips back onshore for Saturday afternoon and we’re back to poor. Sunday August 23 onward the wind is mostly on or cross-on, gusts up to 18 mph, swell builds to 5ft from NNW, but it’s all blown out and messy.

From Monday August 24 right through to the end of the month, we see a mix of tiny 1–2ft WSW/ SW swells with long 15–18 second periods – that’s groundswell, but the wind is never kind. Combined energy values range from 151 to 773, but every session is rated poor. By Monday August 31 afternoon, the swell pushes up to 6ft NW at 13 seconds and energy jumps to 1184 (strong), but the onshore wind from NNW at 12 mph spoils it completely – this one’s a kite surfer’s day, not a paddle surfer’s.

The first few days of September look no better – 3–5ft NW/WNW swell with moderate winds, all poor. So basically, you’ve got a 16-day gap with only the Saturday August 22 morning window offering any real hope. If you’re a patient soul, that’s your moment. Otherwise, the forecasts can change, but right now it’s mostly a waiting game.

Stay warm, mate.

- Rusty

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