Boiler Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Honestly, looking at the next couple weeks for our stretch, I gotta level with you: it’s pretty grim out there for a proper paddle. We’ve got a solid stretch of poor surf conditions, with the wind and the swell not playing nice at all. The water’s sitting at about 57°, which is a touch cooler than normal for this time of year—nothing crazy, but you’ll feel it.

The first real chance of anything even close to surfable is Thursday morning, the 6th. We’re looking at a junky 4ft of swell from the NW with a short 8-second period. The energy’s weak, only 270 in the combined reading. It’s a marginal call at best, with a light cross-onshore wind. Not exactly firing, but it’s the first thing on the board.

Then we hit a proper dead spell. From Friday the 7th through Tuesday the 11th, it’s mostly tiny, weak swell and onshore winds, with a few bigger, longer-period pulses (around 15-16 seconds) but they’re small—like 1ft to 2ft—and pretty much useless for this spot. The wind’s blowing on it, making it messy. You’re better off finding something else to do for a few days.

The next thing that even gets a pulse is Wednesday the 12th. We see a bit of a bump in the energy—around 523 in the morning—with 5ft of NW swell, but the wind is still cross-onshore, and the conditions are just marginal. It’s not clean, but it’s the best we’ve seen in a while. The period is still short at 8 seconds, so it’ll be a bit weak and crumbly.

After that, it’s another letdown for the rest of the week. More small, long-period swells and onshore winds on Thursday and Friday. By Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th, there’s a little more size in the water—5ft to 5ft—but the period drops back to 8 seconds, and the wind is just ruining it. The energy readings are moderate (up to 793 on Sunday afternoon), but it’s all for nothing with that wind chop.

The only other glimmer is Monday the 17th, but again, it’s a marginal morning with a cross-onshore breeze and a short-period swell. It’s not going to be good.

So, where’s the standout? Honestly, there isn’t one. The pick of the entire run is probably Wednesday the 12th morning if you’re desperate—it’s the first time the energy climbs into the moderate range (523), and the wind is a lighter 3 mph, which is the calmest we’ll see. But it’s still cross-onshore. For a spot like Boiler Bay, a reef break that needs a bit of direction, this whole NW swell with a cross-on wind is just a mess. The swell direction never gets close to the SW optimum we’d love to see.

I wouldn’t recommend a beginner anywhere near this; when it does get over 5ft, it’s already pushing it for most. And when the wind’s on it like this, it’s just a washing machine. Honestly, for the next couple of weeks, this setup looks way more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. We’re in a proper dry spell, but these things don’t last forever. Forecasts can change. Keep your board ready, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty, out.

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