Boiler Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright friends, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Boiler Bay, and I gotta be straight with you: it’s a bit of a grim picture for the next couple of weeks. We’re looking at a stretch where the surf is going to be pretty ordinary, so let’s not kid ourselves.

We’re starting off with some real small, weak surf. For the first few days, we’re talking about ankle-biters in the 1ft to 2ft range. The energy is just limp, reading around 90 to 260 in the combined swell energy bracket. It’s weak, it’s messy, and the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s going to be choppy and bumpy. Not the kind of conditions that get you out of bed early.

The water temp is a major talking point, especially for a spot like this. It’s sitting at 51°, which is a full 8° colder than average for this time of year. That’s not just a little nippy, that’s properly cold. You’re going to want the thickest suit you own, hood, boots, the whole deal.

Now, mid-period, around the 19th and 20th, there’s a bit of a bump in the model. We see the swell kicking up to about 4ft, and the energy starts to get a bit more interesting, climbing from 502 up to 549. That’s still not huge, but it’s a step in the right direction. The period is around 11-12 seconds, so it’s not a long-period groundswell, but it’s something. The wind is still not our friend, though. It’s mostly cross-onshore, sometimes blowing onshore, which isn't going to do this reef any favors. It’s still going to look pretty ragged.

Looking further out into the following week, it starts to fade again. We’re back down to 3ft at best, with the energy dropping off. The wind stays in that same cross-onshore pattern. There’s no real window of clean, glassy surf here. It's just a long run of junky, onshore slop.

Honestly, the best you can say for this period is that on the morning of the 20th, we might have a couple of clean-ish waves before the breeze picks up. That's about it. For the standouts, there are none. We don’t get a day where the swell direction lines up with Boiler Bay's southwest optimum, and the wind never cleans up. It’s a rare stretch where even the local experts might just stare at it from the car park. This is pretty normal for this area, so don't go thinking the surf gods have abandoned us for good. Things can and will change, but this forecast is a whole lot of nothing. With this small, weak swell and the persistent wind, this looks more like a spot for the kite surfers to have their fun than for us paddle surfers.

Alright, that’s the look. I wish I had better news. We’ll see what the next run of data brings. Keep the faith, and stay warm.

- Rusty

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