Smugglers Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with ya – this 16-day window for Smugglers Cove is a tough sell. There just isn’t a single standout day where it all comes together for a proper paddle session. The water’s running at 56°F, which is much colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be reaching for the thickest wetsuit you’ve got.

We start with Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th of August, but the surf is tiny, barely 1ft, and it’s coming from the SW with a long period of 14-15 seconds. That’s a groundswell, but the combined energy is weak to moderate (168-174), and the wind’s onshore or cross. The waves are just poor. You’re better off staying home. Saturday the 29th is more of the same – 1ft, cross-on wind, rubbish.

Sunday the 30th through Tuesday the 1st of September, the swell nudges up a touch to 2-2ft, and by Monday the 31st, we see a small WNW swell creeping in, but it’s still weak and the wind is all over the shop – cross, cross-on, onshore. It’s marginal at best, with a combined energy around 180-286. Not worth the drive.

Wednesday the 2nd of September sees a spike: the swell jumps to 6ft from the WNW, period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy hits 748 – that’s strong energy. But the wind is a near gale from the south at 31 mph, cross-shore, and it’s raining. The surf quality is poor. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th are still messy – 5-4ft swell, but the wind stays cross-on or cross, with a moderate chop. Energy is high (423-546), but the conditions are marginal.

Saturday the 5th of September afternoon is the best we see in this whole forecast. The swell holds at 4ft from the NW, period 9 seconds, combined energy of 425, and we get a window of glassy conditions – that’s rare. The break itself is exposed to SW swells, and the new WNW/NW swell is a bit off-angle, but with the water flat and no wind, there’s a chance for a clean wave. It’s still only marginal surf, and the break is rated for beginners, so if you’re new, this might be your moment. Just know the crowds are *sometimes* an issue here.

Sunday the 6th of September morning is another glimmer. The swell drops to 3ft from the WNW, combined energy 305, but we get an offshore wind from ENE at 9 mph. That’s clean. The afternoon is even better – 4ft from the NW, offshore from the east at 3 mph, glassy again. These two sessions on the 6th are the only ones with a “gentle offshore and clean” or “clean” tag. Still, the energy is moderate, and the swell direction doesn’t match the optimum (W), so it’s not going to be pumping.

After that, from Monday the 7th through Wednesday the 9th of September, the swell stays around 3-5ft from the NW, but the wind is cross or cross-off, and the quality drops back to marginal. Energy is 259-493, but the conditions are just okay. By Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th, the swell fades back to 2ft from the SW with a long 15-16 second period, and the combined energy is 362-488, but the winds are onshore or cross-on again. Friday afternoon the 11th has a 4ft NW swell with cross-off winds from the north, giving a clean look, but it’s only marginal.

Bottom line: this is a long, flat run with only a few brief windows of clean-ish conditions. If you’re desperate, focus on the glassy Saturday 5th afternoon or the offshore Sunday 6th. But don’t expect much. When the swell’s this weak and the direction’s off, it’s hard to get excited.

Rusty.

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