Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking like a bit of a grind for your local stretch. We've got a lot of onshore energy in the water, but it's messy and not doing us any favors. The good news is, there's a window of hope in the middle, so don't write it off just yet.

Right out of the gate, for the next few days, it’s all about the ENE wind and it's not our friend. It's blowing cross-onshore and keeping things choppy. The swell is small, in the 4ft to 5ft range, with a short, weak period of 6 to 8 seconds. There’s not enough power or direction to make anything of it, and the conditions are just poor. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate, sitting around 259 to 475, but it's all for nothing with that wind.

We get a temporary bump in size on Sunday the 9th, still from the ENE with a bit more energy in the water (597), and there’s a hint of a score at 1/10 – the only one for a while – but that cross-shore wind at 16 mph is going to make it a bumpy, challenging session. It’s still not what we’d call a good option.

Then we hit a bit of a lull on Monday, with the swell dropping back down to 2ft from the SSW with a much longer 15-second period. This is a different kind of wave, but it's fighting against a cross-onshore wind and the energy is still moderate. It looks like a couple of days of small, messy surf until we get to the midweek.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Starting Wednesday the 12th, the swell direction swings around to the south, and the energy in the water jumps up big time. We're talking a combined energy of over 1000 – that's the strong range, and it's a big upgrade from the weak junk we’ve been seeing. The swell height is 3ft to 4ft, with a solid 16 to 18-second period. The catch? The wind is still up and cross-onshore, which will wreck the surface. So, while the power is there, it’s still not going to be clean.

We carry this bigger, longer-period S swell into the 13th and 14th. On the 13th, the afternoon at least eases off from a full cross-on to a cross-shore wind, and we see our first score of 2/10 for the period. You can feel the potential. The swell is around 5ft with a 15-second period and the energy is strong (1047). It's a marginal call, but it's the best we've got. The 14th is more of the same, but the wind starts to pick up again.

The real test comes in the second week. By Saturday the 15th, the wind is still ENE and strong, blowing at 16 mph, and the swell is back to short-period ENE energy again, which is no good. The size is there – 6ft to 8ft – but it's all wind-driven and messy.

And then, for the true crew, there's the big one on Monday the 17th. We see the swell max out at 8ft from the ENE. That's a lot of water moving, but the period is only 8 seconds and the wave energy is strong (1161). However, with a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be a beast. This is a day for the experts only, and even then, it's going to be a battle. At this size, the ENE swell and that wind are just going to create a close-out, heavy, and blown-out mess. It's more of a spectacle than a surf session. The rest of that week just fades away, dropping back to tiny SW pulses with 12 to 18-second periods, but no real energy or decent winds to make anything of it.

So, to sum it up: the standout is not a clean one, but the window on the 13th and 14th is the only time with both size and a hint of better wind, making it the pick of the fortnight. It’s about scoring a few shifty, powerful ones on the sets. The 19th and 20th see small, long-period SW swell, but it’s not going to do much. It’s a waiting game, but there’s something to keep an eye on.

Remember, forecasts can change, and sometimes a blank run like this turns around faster than you think. Keep the faith.

Rusty.

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