Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Ammonias over the next couple of weeks.

First up, the water temp is sitting at a very warm 81°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Honestly, the outlook for the next week is a bit of a frustrating one. The swell energy is building, with some serious numbers showing up, but the wind is just not playing ball. We kick off on Thursday the 3rd with a 4ft SE swell, but it’s got a cross wind at 19 mph, which is going to leave it lumpy and messy. Not worth getting excited about.

Friday morning the 4th, the swell bumps up to 5ft from the SSE, with a solid 13-second period, and the wave energy is already strong at 1395. But again, that cross-shore breeze is ruining it. That pattern holds through Saturday the 5th, where the swell gets up to 7ft from the ENE and the combined energy jumps to 2479, but the wind remains a problem.

Now, pay attention to Monday the 7th. That morning, the swell direction swings to the SSW, and the period hits a very long 15 seconds, with energy skyrocketing to 7420. The morning is still ruined by a strong cross-onshore breeze, but by Monday afternoon, the wind switches to a direct onshore at a near gale-force 34 mph. The swell is predicted to be a massive 21ft. That’s huge, and while the wind and tide might be favorable for the swell size, the report says it’s too big for this break, so that’s one for the big-wave chargers only, and they’d need to be eyeing the channel, not the peak.

After that, things drop off. From Tuesday the 8th onwards, it’s a pretty grim run. The swell sticks around at 5ft to 7ft during the middle of the week, but it’s almost constantly cross-shore or cross-onshore, and the conditions are described as poor or marginal. The wave energy dips significantly, dropping below 1000 by Wednesday the 9th. There are a couple of afternoons like Tuesday the 8th with lighter winds, but the swell is short-period and weak.

The standout, if you can even call it that, might be the Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th. The swell picks up again to a clean 7ft to 7ft from the ENE, with a moderate 10-second period and good energy levels around 1479 to 1514. The wind is cross-shore, which is the best we’re going to get, but it’s still not clean. The conditions are still described as marginal.

To be brutally honest, this is a tricky 16-day window for Ammonias. There is no period of clean, glassy surf. The wind is a constant enemy. If you are a kiter, these strong, consistent cross-shore and onshore winds with decent swell might be more interesting than for a surfer. The best advice is to watch the wind, and if you see a light or offshore window appear, that’s your shot. Otherwise, the forecasts can change, and since this spot is fairly consistent, it won’t stay this way forever.

Stay tuned, Rusty.

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