Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright mate, Rusty here.

First up, let’s be straight with you. The next 16 days are looking pretty average for Ammonias. We’ve got a run of mediocre conditions, so don’t go planning a day off work just yet. The water temp is sitting at about 81°F—pretty much spot on for this time of year, so you won’t need a steamer.

The combo energy is all over the shop, from weak to moderate most of the time, with a few bursts of strong energy later in the run. But that’s the thing—strong energy doesn’t mean good surf if the wind is rubbish.

For the first week, from Friday 28 August right through to the end of the month, it’s a no-go. The swell is coming from the south, around 3ft to 3ft at best, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore or cross-onshore breeze from the ENE at 16 mph. That’s going to leave a chop on the surface. The energy is weak-to-moderate, around 566 to 656 on the scale. Not worth paddling out for.

Sunday 30 August and Monday 31 August show a bump in swell to 6ft to 6ft, but it’s short period wind swell at 7 to 8 seconds, and the wind stays messy. It’s a cross-shore chop, so nothing clean. The energy creeps up into the moderate range, around 622 to 718, but it’s not the kind of day you’d get excited about.

Tuesday 1 September sees the swell hit 7ft to 7ft, and the energy jumps into the 1000s—strong energy now. But again, the period is short at 8 seconds, and the wind is a cross-shore from the NE or ENE. The conditions are described as marginal, with a cross-chop. For a reef break like Ammonias, that’s a bit of a washout. You’d want cleaner conditions for this spot.

Wednesday 2 September brings a cleaner line of swell from the south, with a long period of 16 seconds. The swell height drops to 3ft, but the energy is still moderate at 858. The problem is the wind goes cross-onshore from the ENE, putting a chop on what could be a nice groundswell. It’s a bit of a tease.

Thursday 3 September and Friday 4 September show a mix. Friday morning has a 6ft swell from the ENE with a 12-second period, which is a bit more organised, and the energy jumps to 1115. The wind is cross-shore, so it’s not perfect, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. Still, the conditions are only described as marginal, so keep expectations low.

The second week, from Saturday 5 September onwards, is a mixed bag of lumpy, choppy, and messy. The swell gets bigger—up to 10ft on Tuesday 8 September with a very strong energy of 2239 to 2305—but the wind is a fresh breeze from the NE at 19 mph, and the period is short at 9 seconds. That’s going to be a big, bumpy, unruly mess. For a reef break, that’s not ideal. It might be more interesting for the kite surfers than paddle surfers.

The standout, if you can call it that, is Friday 4 September morning. The swell is 6ft from the ENE, period 12 seconds, and the energy is 1115. The wind is cross-shore from the ENE at 16 mph. It’s not glassy, but it’s the best of the run. The direction is ENE, which is not the absolute optimum for Ammonias (optimum is SSE), but it’s something.

After that, it’s a blank run with no real recommendations. The surf stays poor through to Saturday 12 September, with the swell dropping to 2ft by the end.

So, honestly, I’d say give it a miss for the next 16 days unless you’re desperate. The forecast can always change, but right now, it’s not looking like a surfer’s paradise.

Rusty.

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