Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, gather 'round the fire, let's talk swell. This is Rusty, and I've been staring at the charts for our little corner of the world. Gotta be straight with you – for the here and now, and for a good stretch, it's a waiting game. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a slow burn, with a whole lot of frustrating days before we finally see some real muscle.

First up, we're looking at Ammonias. The water's sitting around 80°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there. The real story starts with a whole lot of nothing. From Sunday the 23rd right through to the end of August, it's a grim scene. We've got a consistent cross-shore breeze, mostly from the ENE, that's just ruining the surface. The swell is a mix of short-period, weak windswell from the ENE, with heights around 6 ft to 6 ft, but the period is a miserable 6 to 7 seconds. The combined energy is moderate, hitting the 500s and 600s, but it's all junk. The wind state is cross or cross-on, creating a lumpy, choppy mess. It's just not worth paddling out.

Then, there's a big gap. The first few days of September (1st to 3rd) are still marginal at best, with a mix of rain and storms. You'll see a pulse of moderate energy (over 1100) on the 1st and 2nd, but it's still short-period ENE windswell. The wind is still cross-shore, so it's messy. The best you can hope for is a wave that's a bit fat and won't hold up.

Now, hold on, because the end of the forecast window starts to look a bit more interesting. On the 5th of September, we finally see a change. The swell direction swings to ENE, and the period jumps to 12 seconds – that's a proper groundswell on the way. The combined energy is strong, hitting 1303 on Saturday morning, building to 1404 in the afternoon. Swell heights are around 6 ft to 7 ft. The wind is still cross-shore from the NE, so it won't be glassy, but it's a massive improvement. This is the first real standout on offer.

Then, Sunday the 6th of September is the daddy of the run. The swell holds at 7 ft in the morning, building to a solid 10 ft by the afternoon, with a 12-second period. The energy is massive, peaking at 3140. That's a serious amount of water moving. The wind is still a moderate cross-shore from the NE and ENE. This is big, powerful, and for the experienced crew, absolutely worth the wait. It's going to be a proper session, but that 10 ft swell is expert territory.

Monday the 7th sees the energy drop slightly, but still strong at over 1600. The swell is still 8 ft with a 10-second period, but the wind swings ENE and becomes cross-on in the morning, so it's a bit choppier. The afternoon cleans up again with a NE cross-shore.

So, the long and short of it: the first two weeks are a write-off. The best bet is to circle Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th of September at Ammonias. Sunday the 6th is the standout, with that big, powerful groundswell from the ENE, but it's for the advanced crowd only. The wind won't be perfect, but it's clean enough to handle that much energy. Stay patient, and keep your eyes on the end of the forecast.

Rusty.

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