Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I'll be straight with you – this forecast for Ammonias is a tough one. We're looking at a 16-day window that's mostly a write-off for decent waves. For a reef break that's fairly consistent and exposed to swell, it's a real bummer.

The pattern is clear: we've got a long stretch of poor surf, followed by a few days where it's just barely worth a look. The water temp is sitting around 79°F on the first day we've got data, and with a 0.9°F anomaly, that's about what you'd expect for this time of year.

From Wednesday the 19th of August right through to the end of the month, it's a desert. The swell is tiny, mostly under 3 ft, with a mix of weak SW, SSW, and S swells, but the wind is a constant problem. It's cross-on or cross-shore from the ENE, and the combined energy is weak to moderate at best, often in the 300s to 500s range. The wave comment is consistently "poor surf conditions" or "marginal," and the scores are zeros and ones. The swell period is short, under 8 seconds, meaning it's just weak, choppy junk. For a reef, that's not doing you any favours.

There's a solid gap of no good surf from the 19th right through until the 2nd of September. That's a long, dry spell.

Now, the only flicker of light comes on Wednesday the 2nd of September. The morning has a 7 ft swell from the ENE, with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 1015. The wind is a gentle cross-shore from the ENE at 9 mph. This is the best we've got, but it's still only a "marginal" call with a score of 2. The swell is a bit on the bigger side for a beginner, and it's from the ENE, which isn't the optimum SSE direction for Ammonias, so the shape might be a bit unruly. The 11-second period is decent, offering some push, but it's not a clean groundswell. The following days drop back down to 5 ft with less energy.

So, if you're desperate, mark your calendar for the morning of the 2nd of September. It's a long shot, but with light wind and some size, it might just be the only time you get a wave. For the rest of the window, honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, with that constant cross-shore wind and lumpy chop.

Rusty.

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