Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for Ammonias over this 16-day stretch. I’ll level with you straight up: it’s a tough outlook. The whole period is filled with poor surf conditions and only a handful of days that even reach “marginal.” There's no standout session that I’d get properly excited about.

The first real window of surf we can talk about starts on the 20th of August. Thursday afternoon sees a little pulse of swell—only 2ft from the SSW with a long period of 17 seconds, which gives it some shape. Winds are light cross-shore from the NE at 15 km/h, so it’s not all messy. The combined energy is weak at 225, so it’s more of a longboard or a sneaky session if you’re desperate. The break itself is a reef, fairly consistent, and likes an offshore from the NW. We’re not getting that, so it’ll be a bit average.

From the 24th of August through to the 27th, there’s a build in swell. Monday the 24th morning sees 6ft from the ENE with a short 7-second period—so it’s lumpy, not groundswell. Winds are cross-shore at 12 mph, keeping it rough. Combined energy hits moderate levels (613). It’s rated marginal. Nothing to write home about. The 25th and 27th see similar conditions, with swell nudging 7ft to 8ft, still short period, still cross-shore winds. That 8ft is getting into the “not for beginners” territory, but the chop will make it ugly for everyone.

Now, the end of August throws up some bigger numbers, but don’t let the size fool you. On Friday the 28th afternoon, we’ve got 12ft of ENE swell at 11 seconds—that’s a proper swell height, long period, and strong wave energy (3081). The trouble? It’s cross-shore wind at 12 mph, so it’ll be a washing machine. That size is expert-only, and even then, the conditions will be rough. The break is a reef, so the longer period (11 seconds) should wrap in nicely, but the chop will ruin the takeoff. Saturday the 29th morning is similar—10ft and onshore—making it a total mess. I’d say this setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

We have a quiet end to the run. The 30th and 31st of August drop right back to 2ft with long SSW swell (16 seconds), but cross-shore winds keep it from cleaning up. Weak energy (362). By the 1st of September, Tuesday morning, we get a 7ft pulse from the E at 9 seconds, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy again. The whole 16 days is a struggle. If you’re set on paddling out, the 27th of August Thursday afternoon might be your best bet: 8ft ENE at 8 seconds, cross-shore with a gentle breeze, combined energy of 1292 (moderate). It’s marginal, but with a little luck and a forgiving tide, you might find a few.

There’s no true standout. I wouldn’t plan a trip around this. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no shock there. Crowds are “often” at this reef, so you might have company, but on days like this, I doubt many will show.

Stay patient. It tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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