Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's cooking for this stretch.

Right off the bat, for the next couple of weeks, it’s a tough gig. The forecast is a real mixed bag of cross-shore winds and choppy conditions that just won't let the waves line up properly. The water temperature is sitting at 80°, which is pretty much what you'd expect for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

We start on Tuesday the 18th with a small, 0.7 ft south swell, but it's got that cross-shore wind messing it up. The energy's moderate (437), but with a "poor surf conditions" tag, you're better off cleaning your board.

Wednesday the 19th through to Thursday the 20th stays pretty grim. The swell drops to 0.4 ft to 0.6 ft, driven by long-period SSW groundswell (16-18 seconds). That long period would normally get you excited, but with a constant cross-shore breeze from the ENE, it's just a bumpy mess.

Now, there's a tiny window that's worth mentioning. Friday the 21st. We get a bit of a reprieve. The wind goes light, even turning onshore but very light, from the ESE then SE. The swell sits at 0.7 ft from the SSW, with a period of 16-17 seconds (combined energy around 255-316). It’s only a "marginal" call, but with a light breeze, that could be the cleanest, most ridable little waves we see all week.

After that, things go downhill again. From Saturday the 22nd right through the end of the month, the wind cranks back up to 20-25 km/h from the ENE. The swell builds, but it's all short-period wind chop (7-8 seconds) from the east and east-northeast. The energy climbs from moderate to strong (from 469 up to over 1000), but the quality is just not there. The wave comment is nearly always "poor surf conditions". By the 25th and 26th of August, we're looking at 7 ft to 8 ft of chunky, short-period swell with risk of thunderstorms. That's a lot of water moving around, but it's going to be blown-out and ugly. It's more of a kite-surfing session than a proper paddle-surf.

We get a brief uptick in energy on the 29th of August, with the combined energy hitting 1111, but it's still cross-shore winds and a 9-second period. Then the swell backs off again into early September.

But hold on. If you're patient, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. The standout here, the one to circle on your calendar, is Wednesday the 2nd of September. A new groundswell arrives from the south. The swell height is a modest 1 ft, but the period is a massive 20 seconds. That’s a proper, powerful line of swell. The wind is down to a gentle 15 km/h breeze from the NE, keeping the surface cross but not too choppy. The combined energy is through the roof at 1799 and 1818. This is a setup that screams quality. With that long period, it will wrap into the reef at Ammonias with a lot of push and length.

For a reef break, this is the one. The long period makes it less ideal for a beach break, but for a reef setup, it's textbook. It’s a bit far out in the forecast, so treat it as a promising look, but a damn good one.

Overall, the next two weeks are a write-off for quality waves. The only game in town is a very early, light-wind window on Friday the 21st for knee-high waves, and then the big, clean groundswell prospect on the 2nd of September.

Rusty.

Read more