Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's chew the fat on the next 16 days at Ammonias.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough stretch ahead. We’ve got a long dry spell on our hands. The first real chance of something half-decent doesn’t pop up until we get into the second week, and even then, we’re scratching for it. The water temp is sitting right around average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

The opening weekend, starting Saturday the 29th of August, is a write-off. We’ve got small, weak swell mixed with a strong cross-onshore breeze. It’s choppy, messy, and the combined energy is weak (566). The whole first week is basically a bust – constant cross-shore wind with a cross-chop, and the swell is mostly a weak, short-period windswell that just isn't worth paddling out for. Sunday the 30th through to the following Saturday (5th of September) is all the same story: poor surf and moderate breezes ruining any shape.

We finally see a pulse of energy mid-week, but honestly, it’s not clean. Around Monday the 7th of September, the combined energy jumps up to a strong level (1207), and it peaks hard on Wednesday the 9th with a very strong reading of 2057 and solid 10ft swell. But here’s the kicker – the wind is a persistent cross-shore, which means lumpy, bumpy conditions. This is powerful, chunky surf that’s going to be a real handful. At 10ft, this is expert-only territory. The swell direction is from the ENE, but the optimum for this reef is from the SSE, so it’s not wrapping in as clean as it could. Honestly, with that much cross-shore wind and messy power, this setup probably looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The one true standout, the only one worth circling on the calendar, is Friday the 11th of September. We’ve got a long-period groundswell (11 seconds) arriving from the SSE, which is bang on the optimum direction for this break. The combined wave energy is massive at 3066. Swell height hits 8ft, and the wind shifts to a cross-onshore from the ESE – not glassy, but manageable. Because it’s a long-period SSE swell hitting a reef known to like that direction, the shape should be there. Just be aware, the long period can throw big, unpredictable sets, so keep your wits about you. And with that rating of "often" for crowds, expect company out there.

Overall, the second week is a waiting game for that Friday. The rest is a lot of big, blown-out lumps or small, weak dribble. Stay patient.

- Rusty

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