Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let's talk about what's on the menu for the next couple of weeks at Ammonias.

Right off the bat, things aren't looking great. We've got a whole lotta nothing for the first few days. The surf kicks off Sunday the 9th, but it's a marginal, cross-shore mess with a weak 5ft swell from the ENE and only 7 seconds between waves. That's windswell and not worth paddling out for. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is dead average for this time of year.

Honestly, from Sunday the 9th all the way through Friday the 15th, it's a real struggle. We're looking at weak, inconsistent surf with onshore and cross-shore breezes making a mess of things. The swell energy is mostly moderate, with values (527-1301) but it's just not coming together. The 18-second period groundswell on the 12th is tempting in theory, but it’s crossed-up and messy. It’s not till Saturday the 15th that we start to see some real size building, but the wind is still a problem.

Here’s where it gets interesting. The standout window is the weekend of the 16th and 17th. By Sunday morning the 16th, a solid 12ft swell from the ENE (12-second period) is rolling in, and the wind goes clean cross-offshore from the NNE. The combined energy jumps to a very strong 3874, and by the afternoon it’s up to 13ft with 13-second period and a whopping 5750 energy. This is big, powerful surf. It's a reef break, so those long-period sets will wrap in nicely, but at that size it’s for experienced surfers only. Big waves, clean faces.

Then Monday the 17th is the real cherry on top. We get a 7ft ENE groundswell (10 seconds) with glassy conditions. A light 3 mph SE breeze, the report says "glassy." That’s as good as it gets for paddle surfing. The energy is still strong (1178), the conditions are pristine, and the crowd factor is "often" busy at this spot, so expect company if you paddle out. This is the best day of the forecast. The afternoon drops a bit to 6ft but stays clean.

After that, it unfortunately all falls apart again. From the 18th onwards, we're back to weak, onshore slop with wind and chop making things ugly. The second week is a write-off.

So to sum it up: grin and bear the first week of slop, but keep your eyes locked on the 16th and especially the 17th of August. The 16th has the raw power for the experts, but the 17th is the one with the glassy perfection. Don't sleep on it.

- Rusty

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