Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for the next 16 days.

Honestly, for the first week it’s a bit of a flat, messy picture. We’ve got some energy coming in, but the wind and conditions are fighting us every step of the way. The real standout, and really the only one worth getting excited about, lands on Tuesday afternoon of the 8th of September at Ammonias, a reef break. That afternoon we see a solid 6ft swell pushing in from the ENE, with a period of 11 seconds. Combined swell energy is strong at 1942. The water temperature is sitting at 80°, which is just about average for the time of year, so no surprises there. The wind is a cross-shore from the SW at 16 mph, which creates a cross-chop on the surface. It’s not glassy, but it’s rideable for an intermediate. Because it’s a reef break, the long-period swell (over 11 seconds) can really line up nicely here, but the crowd factor is listed as ‘often’, so expect plenty of company in the water.

After that, the outlook gets grim. There’s a long stretch of poor conditions and marginal surf from the 9th right through to the 18th of September. The wind keeps swinging cross-on or onshore, with speeds mostly between 9 and 16 mph, and the swell heights drop off quickly. On Wednesday the 9th, you’ve got a tiny 3ft swell from the SSW, but it’s onshore and weak. Thursday the 10th brings a short, choppy 5ft to 6ft ENE swell with periods under 8 seconds – not going to hold up at a reef. The rest of that run is consistently poor, with energy readings below 1000 and a lot of chop.

Things start to look a little more hopeful by Friday the 18th of September. The morning swings into a cross-shore wind from the ENE, 12 mph, with a 3ft SSW swell at a promising 17 seconds. The combined energy nudges up into moderate territory at 1018. The light cross-shore breeze will keep the face fairly clean, and the long period means the reef will produce some good-shaped, grunty waves. It’s still marginal for quality, but by far the best we’ve seen in over a week. Expect the crowd factor to be ‘often’ – it’s a quality slab, so it draws attention.

The rest of the second week sees the swell fade back again. We’re into small, weak waves from the SSW with periods in the 13 to 15-second range, and the wind stays mostly cross-shore. There’s no second standout in the window. The conditions just don’t come together again.

So, to sum it up: if you want the best of a dodgy run, Tuesday, 8th of September at Ammonias is your call. It’s not perfect, but it’s the biggest and most energetic of the lot. The Friday, 18th of September morning offers a cleaner, longer-period option if you’re patient and can handle the crowds. For everything else, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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