Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. I’m looking at the forecast for Ammonias, and it’s pretty grim over the next 16 days.

We’re staring down a long stretch of poor conditions. The wind is mostly cross-on or cross-shore from the east and northeast, blowing 12 to 15 mph, and it’s just messing up the water. The water temperature is about 80°F, which is normal for this time of year, so at least the water’s not cold.

The first tiny ray of hope is around Thursday, August 20th. The swell drops to about 2 feet from the SSW with a period of 18 seconds, that’s a long-period groundswell, but there’s hardly any energy in it (268). The wind will be light, maybe a little cross, so it might be clean, but it’s barely a wave. It’s described as "marginal."

We get a bump in size on Sunday, August 23rd, with swell from the ENE pushing 6 feet, but the period is a short 7 seconds, just windswell. The wind is still 15 mph and cross-shore, so it’s going to be a choppy, lumpy mess. The same story repeats for days – a bit of size, but bad wind and short period.

The closest we get to something half decent is around Wednesday, August 26th, and the following weekend. The swell builds from 7 to 8 feet, but it’s all short-period ENE windswell (6-8 seconds), and the wind is still 12-15 mph. The energy gets strong (up to 1357), but with those conditions, it’s just a big, sectiony, blown-out mess. For a reef break, that’s not good. It’s too big for beginners (over 5 feet) and close to expert-only (over 8 feet), but with this wind, it’s not even good for experts. The setup here is a reef, and with that short-period, onshore-driven swell, it’s going to be a washing machine. It might look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Heading into September, the swell fades back to under 3 feet, and the wind stays strong from the east. The best we can hope for is a tiny, clean day around the 20th of August, but it’s a long shot. This is a real blank run for Ammonias.

Rusty.

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