Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the cards for Ammonias over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a frustrating run. There’s wave energy in the water, but the wind and conditions are just not playing ball for most of it. Don’t get your hopes up too high until the very end of the month.

The whole 16-day window kicks off on Thursday the 23rd of July, and it’s a rough start. We’ve got a solid amount of energy in the water – a combined energy of 1211 – but a brisk 19 mph ENE cross-onshore wind is making a mess of the 3ft SSW swell. The wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” That’s a no-go. Thursday afternoon is barely better, with a moderate cross-shore only offering marginal surf.

Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th are a similar story. The swell is a mix of short-period windswell and a long-period groundswell, but the wind stays cross or cross-shore, keeping the surface lumpy and chopped. You’ll see waves, but they won’t be worth the paddle out. The combined energy is still high – over 1000 – but it’s all wasted energy.

Sunday the 26th offers a tiny glimmer, with a morning session seeing 3ft of SSW swell at 16 seconds and a clear sky, but the cross-shore wind keeps the score low. It’s marginal at best. Monday and Tuesday bring a shift to a short-period easterly windswell, but the wind stays cross, and the quality is still poor to marginal.

Now, here’s the standout of the entire forecast. Thursday the 30th of July. This is the one you want to circle on the calendar. The morning session is a beauty. The wind drops to a glassy 3 mph from the NE – that’s a major positive. The wave state is described as “glassy,” and the combined energy is a moderate 485. We’re looking at 4ft of swell from the ENE with a 9-second period. For a reef break like Ammonias, that clean, glassy surface with a manageable swell is going to produce some of the best, most user-friendly waves of the whole period. This is the best on offer, and it’s not even close. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no nasty surprises there.

After that perfect morning, it all goes south again. The afternoon of the 30th turns onshore, and from Friday the 31st of July through to the end of the first week of August, the conditions are consistently poor. The wind is a persistent cross or cross-onshore, and the swell often has a short period or is just not clean. The combined energy drops off too, dipping below 500 for a few days.

From the 1st of August onwards, the swell picks up a little, with heights around 6ft to 7ft, but the wind is still a problem. By the 2nd of August, the swell is 7ft from the ENE at 8 seconds – it’s a mushy, cross-shore mess. The combined energy is moderate (828), but the quality is poor. This size is getting too big for beginners, and the short period is not doing it any favours.

The final stretch from the 3rd to the 7th of August is a mix of marginal and poor conditions. The wind finally eases on the 7th of August, but the swell drops to a tiny 2ft from the SSW with a long 14-second period. The combined energy is a weak 158, and the cross-onshore wind kills it. There’s nothing to work with there.

So, to sum it up: we have a long gap of poor to marginal surf until that one golden morning on Thursday the 30th of July. If you can get out for that glassy session, you’ll be stoked. After that, it’s back to choppy, cross-shore frustration. Keep your eyes on the forecasts, but for now, that Thursday morning is the only real standout.

Rusty.

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