Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next sixteen days at Ammonias are a real mixed bag, and honestly, mostly a struggle. The swell’s gonna be around, but the wind is our enemy for most of the run. Let’s break it down.

We kick off on Saturday, July 11th, but it’s not exactly a welcome. The swell is hanging around 7 ft to 7 ft from the ENE, but that’s coming with a fresh 19 mph cross-breeze, which has got the surface all lumpy and cross-chop. The wave energy is moderate (675-764), but the conditions are just poor. The water temp is sitting at 79°, which is pretty much average for this time of year – nothing weird there.

Sunday the 12th is more of the same: swell around 7 ft to 7 ft, ENE, but the wind is still fresh and cross-onshore, making it choppy and lumpy. The energy picks up a bit (896), but it’s not doing us any favours.

Monday the 13th sees a slight drop in swell to 6 ft to 6 ft, but that moderate cross-shore wind is still ruining the surface. The energy is dropping (578-726), and we’re only scraping a marginal surf forecast. Not great.

Tuesday the 14th brings a change in direction – the swell swings to the SW at 2 ft, with a long period of 14 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, but the energy is weak (199-335), and the wind is still cross-shore. The wave quality is poor.

From Wednesday the 15th right through to Monday the 20th, it’s a real grind. The swell stays small, mostly under 3 ft, with periods anywhere from 7 to 16 seconds, but the wind is a constant cross or cross-onshore, from moderate to fresh. The energy is weak to moderate (94-842), and the surf is either poor or marginal at best. There’s a gap of several days here where there’s no real recommendation – just messy, lumpy conditions.

Now, there is a bit of a standout hiding in the second week. On the morning of Wednesday, July 22nd, things get interesting. The swell drops to just 2 ft, but it’s from the SSW with a very long period of 24 seconds. That’s a massive groundswell, and the energy jumps to 1220 – strong. The wind is still a moderate cross-shore, but the wave quality is only marginal. This kind of long-period, small swell is tricky at a reef break like Ammonias – it can be super straight and hard to get into, but if it lines up, it could offer some clean, powerful lines. The same pattern continues through to Thursday, July 23rd, with 3 ft from the SSW and periods of 19 seconds, though the energy stays strong (1105) but the wind stays cross-shore, keeping it marginal.

After that, from Friday the 24th into the weekend of the 25th and 26th, we’re back to the ENE windswell, around 6 ft to 6 ft, with periods of 7-8 seconds. The energy is moderate (630-770), but the wind is still cross-shore, so it’s only marginal at best. The crowds are listed as “often” at Ammonias, so when it’s clean, it’ll be busy, but honestly, with the persistent cross-breeze, it’s going to be a battle.

The real standout in this whole outlook is the Wednesday, July 22nd morning window. That 2 ft SSW swell with a 24-second period is the most interesting pulse of the forecast, but it’s a long way out and the wind is still a factor. It’s the only time the energy really ramps up, and the long period means it could produce some clean, powerful waves if the wind drops. Keep an eye on it, but don’t hold your breath.

For the rest of it, honestly, this is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one, given the significant swell and poor quality from the cross-shore winds. The surf will be choppy and lumpy, and the weak, short-period swell won’t hold much shape. It’s a tough stretch.

Rusty.

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