Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at Ammonias for the next couple weeks.

Honestly, this is a rough one. For the first ten days or so, the wind is a total buzzkill. A persistent moderate cross-onshore or cross-shore breeze from the east-northeast, blowing 12 to 19 mph, is keeping the surface lumpy and choppy. The swell is running between 6 ft and 7 ft for most of that time, but it’s wind-affected, short-period junk (7 to 8 seconds), and the combination of onshore wind and short period means the waves are just messy. The combined swell energy is moderate, ranging from 464 to 996 (moderate wave energy), but it’s all pretty unappealing. You’re looking at poor surf conditions straight through from Thursday, July 9, into the middle of the following week.

Then, around Monday, July 20, we see a glimmer. The wind eases a touch to 12 mph, and the swell period starts to stretch out. By Tuesday, July 21, we get a real change: a long-period groundswell rolls in from the east with a period of 17 seconds, though the swell height drops to 4 ft to 4 ft. The combined energy jumps up to 1212 and 1499 (strong to very strong wave energy), which is impressive for the size. But here’s the catch – the wind is still cross-shore and moderate, and the swell direction (E) isn’t a perfect match for Ammonias’ optimum swell direction (SSE). The long period is great for shape and energy, but at a reef break, a straight east swell can sometimes be a bit tricky. It’s still a marginal call, but it’s the closest thing to a standout in the whole run. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no drama there.

The standout for the whole outlook is that Tuesday, July 21. If you can get out on that morning, you’ll find a 4 ft, 17-second groundswell with moderate cross-shore wind. The crowd profile at Ammonias is "often" busy, so expect some company. For a reef break, it’s a solid option, but the conditions are still marginal, so don’t expect perfection.

After that, the swell fades and the wind remains onshore, turning the last few days into a pretty poor run again. The second week is a real mixed bag of low energy and poor conditions, so don’t hold your breath for a clean session.

Overall, it’s a disappointing forecast. The first ten days are a write-off due to onshore wind and short-period chop, and the only real promise is that Tuesday, July 21, which offers a taste of groundswell but still has cross-shore wind. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a rare blank run. The best advice is to watch that Tuesday window closely, but don’t get your hopes up too high.

Rusty.

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