Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about what we've got cookin' at Ammonias.

Right off the bat, the next week and a half is lookin' pretty average for this reef setup. The swell comin' in is pretty mixed and the wind is never truly clean, mostly hangin' in that cross to cross-on range, which keeps things lumpy and a bit frustrating. The water temp is sittin' around 80° which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be shiverin' while you're waitin'.

Saturday the 8th is a write-off; small, choppy, and messy. Sunday the 9th through to about Tuesday the 13th is all in the "marginal" zone. Nothin' to get excited about. You're lookin' at chest to head high waves (5 ft - 5 ft) but that period is short, around 6-7 seconds, so it's weak and walled up. The combined energy is moderate, just a few hundred to start but climbin'. Wednesday the 12th afternoon sees a shift. The swell direction swings to the S and the period jumps to 18 seconds – that's proper groundswell, with very long lines. The combined energy jumps to 993, and then to 1185 on Wednesday afternoon – that's gettin' into moderate-strong territory, but the wind is still cross, which spoils the party.

Thursday the 13th keeps that S swell rollin' in at 5 ft and 16 seconds with solid energy (1257 and 1066), but again, that cross wind holds. By Friday the 14th, the wind picks up to 19 mph from the NE and the swell bumps up. The afternoon sees 7 ft of ENE swell, but it's short period (8 sec) and lumpy. The combined energy is high (1167) but it's a mess. Honestly, this period looks more interesting for kite surfin' than a clean paddle session.

Now, here's where it gets wild, but not exactly good. Saturday the 15th, the swell absolutely goes mental. We're talkin' 13 ft risin' to 18 ft. The combined energy hits 3779 then a massive 10215 – that is very, very strong wave energy. The wind is howlin' onshore at 22-25 mph. This is not a day for the average punter. This is expert-only territory, and even then, the conditions will be treacherous. That continues into Sunday the 16th with 20 ft of SE swell (combined energy 7724) and strong onshore winds. The whole weekend of the 15th-16th is hazardous.

Things start to ease back down from Monday the 17th, but the quality stays marginal. The swell drops to 5 ft-6 ft and the period shortens back to 7 seconds, with cross winds persistin'. The energy drops to the 500-600 range. From the 19th, it's all poor surf with light cross-onshore winds and very low energy.

If you had to pick a standout, and I'm reachin' a bit here, the best bet for the more experienced surfer would be Ammonias on the mornin' of Thursday the 13th. The S swell at 5 ft has a very long period of 16 seconds, givin' the waves real shape and drive. The combined energy of 1257 shows it has some punch. The wind is cross off the NE at 16 mph, so it's not glassy, but it's the most lined-up and powerful swell we see before the storm hits. For a reef like this, that longer period can be magic. But don't expect perfection, it's still a bit lumpy.

Beyond that, there's a long stretch of poor conditions from the 15th to the 23rd. Keep your eyes on the charts, things can change, but right now it's a waitin' game.

Rusty.

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