Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be real—Ammonias is a reef break that’s fairly consistent but we’ve got a tricky run ahead. The first real surf worth paddling out for shows up on Monday morning, 13 July, with a 6ft swell from the ENE, period short at 8 seconds, and moderate cross-shore wind from the NE at 16 mph. The combined wave energy is moderate (712). It’s not clean, but it’s the best we’ve got to start with. Break is exposed, so it’ll take that swell. Crowds can be around sometimes, so you might have company.

The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual.

Monday afternoon sees the swell dip a touch to 5ft, still ENE, still cross-shore wind, energy down to 599. Still rideable but marginal.

Then we hit a dry spell. Tuesday 14 July through Sunday 19 July offers nothing but poor surf conditions—mostly cross-on winds, short period junk, or tiny swells. Some days have rain showers. The odd afternoon on Saturday 18 July has a 2ft SW swell with a long 14-second period and moderate cross-shore wind, but it’s only marginal at best. Not worth suiting up for.

We get a little flicker of hope Monday 20 July morning: 5ft ENE, short period, cross-shore wind, but still poor. Afternoon is tiny.

From Tuesday 21 July through Thursday 23 July mornings, it’s mostly marginal, with S swells around 3ft to 3ft, long periods 13–15 seconds, and cross-shore winds. The energy is moderate (549–652). It’s clean enough for a go if you’re desperate, but not a standout.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. The standout window is Friday 24 July through Sunday 26 July. Friday morning we see 6ft from the ENE, short period 7 seconds, but cross-shore wind from the NE at 12 mph. Combined energy is strong (824). Friday afternoon holds at 6ft ENE, still cross-shore, energy 744. Saturday 25 July morning is 6ft ENE, 8-second period, gentle cross-on wind from the E at 9 mph—still poor, but Saturday afternoon shows 6ft ENE, cross-shore, energy 834. Sunday 26 July keeps the 6ft to 6ft ENE swell, cross-shore, energy 787–857. This is the best stretch of the forecast: consistent chest-to-head-high waves, moderate energy, and the wind is mostly cross-shore, not too messy. It’s not glassy, but it’s the most surfable run we’ve got. The swell direction (ENE) is not the optimum for Ammonias (which likes SSE), but it’s still exposed, so it’ll work. These waves are a bit short-period, so expect a bit of a closeout on the reef, but there’ll be fun ones.

After that, Monday 27 July and Tuesday 28 July drop back to 3ft from the E, longer period 13–14 seconds, cross-shore wind, moderate energy (523–635). Marginal again.

The biggest gap of no real surf is from Tuesday 14 July through Sunday 19 July—six days of poor conditions. The week after that is where the action is, especially Friday 24 July to Sunday 26 July. That’s your best bet. Forecasts can change, but for now, mark those dates.

Rusty.

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