Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Ammonias.

Honestly, looking at the next couple of weeks, we’ve got a long, frustrating wait ahead. The first real surf worth paddling out for doesn’t show up until the 28th of August, so from now until then, it’s mostly just chopped-up leftovers, onshore junk, and tiny swell. It’s gonna be a grind, with nearly two weeks of poor conditions making it tough to find anything clean.

Starting this Sunday afternoon, the 16th, the swell is a solid 10ft from the ENE, but the wind is cross-on at 16 mph, so it’s a mess – choppy with thunderstorm risk. The water temp is about average for the time of year at 80°. Not worth it.

Through Monday the 17th into the 18th, the swell drops to under 3ft with long-period S and SW swells, but again, that cross-on wind keeps things ugly. Tuesday the 19th sees the swell bottom out. We get a few days of marginal conditions from the 20th to the 22nd, with tiny 2ft SSW swell and light cross-shore or onshore winds, but nothing you’d write home about.

From the 23rd to the 27th, we get pulses of short-period ENE swell around 5-6ft, but the wind never really cleans up – mostly cross or cross-on with a chop. The combined energy is moderate (around 409-782) but the quality is poor.

Now, the standout window arrives late August. The first real chance is Friday the 28th of August, when an 8ft ENE swell rolls in with an 11-second period. Combined energy jumps to a strong 1601. The wind is still cross-on in the morning, making it choppy and 8ft is getting into expert-only territory for this reef. But the afternoon looks better, with cross-shore wind and the same size, earning a marginal nod. This could be one for the experienced crew who don’t mind a bit of chop.

The highlight of the entire run is Saturday the 29th of August. That 8ft ENE swell hangs around, and the period stretches to a very long 12 seconds – this is groundswell energy, making for better-shaped waves. The combined energy is very strong (over 2949). The wind stays cross-shore at 13-16 mph. For a reef setup, that long period can mean nice lines, but it’s still a big swell. The afternoon on the 29th is the best on offer with a score of 3/10 and cross-shore wind. Still, it’s big and powerful, so experts only.

Sunday the 30th drops to 6ft with a 10-second period, and then we fade back into small SSW swell by Monday the 31st. Nothing else stands out.

At Ammonias, this reef break needs an offshore wind from the NW to really shine, and we don't get that at all, so we are working with a cross-shore angle. Crowds are often a factor here when it’s good, which could happen on the 29th. This is a reef break, so that long-period groundswell will really wrap in and offer better shape but can get a bit straight at times. For the bulk of the next two weeks, this setup with onshore wind and moderate to strong swell just looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, honestly.

Rusty.

Read more