Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get real about the next 16 days at Ammonias. I’ve been staring at the charts and to be honest, it’s a rough stretch. We’re looking at a long, frustrating gap with very little to get excited about.

The pattern starts off flat and messy. Right from the get-go, Friday the 31st of July, we’ve got a 6 ft swell from the east, but it’s a short-period 7 second windswell, and the wind is a cross-on breeze from the ENE at 16 mph. The water is near average for the time of year, which is about the only thing that’s not a letdown. The combined energy of all swells is only moderate (800), and the conditions are just poor – choppy, lumpy, no good. Saturday and Sunday the 1st and 2nd of August see the swell bump up to 8 ft, but it’s the same story: cross-shore winds at 19 mph, still a short period. That size is pushing into expert territory with onshore winds, so it’s a raw, blown-out mess. The energy climbs to a strong 1192 but it’s wasted.

The whole first week is a write-off. We get a slight drop in wind to 12 mph on Monday the 3rd, but the swell is dropping and the period is still a weak 8 seconds. The surf is marginal at best, with a moderate cross-chop. Tuesday the 4th brings a longer period swell of 12 seconds, which is a tease, but the swell height is only 5 ft and the wind is still cross. The energy is moderate (845), but the conditions are still poor. For the rest of that week and into the next, it’s just a constant grind of 4 ft to 6 ft east swell with onshore or cross-shore winds, leaving the surface choppy and unrideable. We’re talking about one of those blank runs that feels like it’s never going to end.

There is a flicker of hope around Monday the 10th of August. We get a 3 ft swell from the SSW, but it’s a proper groundswell with a very long 16-second period. The problem? The wind is cross-on from the east or ENE, and the energy is moderate (950). The long period means it’s breaking straight on a beach setup, so it’s not going to hold shape. It’s a poor option. The same pattern continues through the 11th, 12th, and 13th – long period SSW swells mixed with a short period east windswell, but the wind is always wrong. It’s not until Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th of August that we see the wind finally swing offshore from the SSE and SE, with light breezes. The swell on the 15th is 4 ft from the south with a 16-second period, giving a strong 826 combined energy. The wind is glassy offshore, which is a major positive. For a reef break that likes a SSE swell, this is the only true standout. It’s the best on offer, but it’s a long way off and the uncertainty is high. The sets will be long and clean, but with that long period, it might be a bit straight for the beachies. Still, if you’re patient, this is the window to watch.

For now, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the persistent cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions. Hang tight, the forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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