Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty ordinary for most of us, to be honest. There’s a real lack of clean, well-ordered swell. We’re dealing with a lot of cross-shore and cross-onshore energy, which is making most spots a lumpy, choppy mess. Hold onto your boards, ’cause it’s a waiting game for the most part.

The first recommendation is for Ammonias on Tuesday the 4th of August. It’s a reef break, so it’s got that going for it. We’re looking at a 5ft swell from the ENE, but the period is a touch short at 11 seconds. The wind is a gentle breeze from the ENE, but it’s cross-shore, so expect a bit of a chop. The water temp is 80°F, which is about normal for this time of year. The combined energy is moderate at 614, but honestly, it’s only a marginal call. It’s not a day to get too excited about, but it’s the best we’ve got to start. The direction is from the ENE, which is a bit off from the optimum SSE for this spot, so it won't be at its best.

Then we have a bit of a dry spell. There’s nothing really worth paddling out for from Wednesday the 5th through to Monday the 10th. The swell is there, around 4ft to 6ft, but the periods are short and the wind is constantly messing it up. It’s just poor conditions, nothing that’ll get your heart racing. The combined energy is moderate, but it doesn’t matter when the surface is that chopped up.

Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th start to show a little more promise. The swell period jumps up to 15-18 seconds, signaling a proper groundswell. The height is around 3ft to 5ft, and the combined energy is ramping up big time, hitting 1037 on the Wednesday morning. The wind is still cross-shore, but the longer period suggests better shaped waves. The swell direction is from the S, which is much more in line with what Ammonias likes. Wednesday afternoon looks like the pick of these two days, with that 4ft S swell at 18 seconds. It’s still cross-shore, but the potential for a cleaner wave is much higher.

Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th are a mixed bag. The swell is still from the S with a long period, but the wind picks up, especially on Friday, with a fresh breeze making it lumpy. The energy is still strong, but the chop will be a factor. It’s a step back from the promise of Wednesday.

Then we get to the real size at the end of the window. From Saturday the 15th, the swell builds steadily, but it's from the ENE with a short period. By Monday the 17th, we’re looking at 8ft, and by Tuesday the 18th, it’s hitting 10ft. This is when it gets serious. The combined energy is strong to very strong, hitting 1583 on Tuesday morning. But, this is where I have to be honest with you. This is a short-period, wind-driven swell, and with those cross-shore winds, it’s going to be a beast. At 8ft and above, this is expert territory only. The break is a reef, which will handle the size better than a beach, but the short period will make it relentless and walls. The conditions will be challenging, to say the least. This looks more like a day for the tow-in crew or maybe even the kite surfers than your average weekend surfer.

The standouts in this whole window are the S swells on the 12th and 13th. The Wednesday afternoon with that 18-second period and 4ft of S swell is the one I’d be circling. Long-period, clean energy, and the swell direction is right. It’s only a couple of meters, but it could be proper. The second one is the Thursday morning, but the wind is more on it. Those are the days to try and get some time off for.

Everything else is either too small, too short-period, or too chopped up to be worth the paddle. It’s a classic case of a long-range forecast looking promising, but the near-term reality being a bit grim. Keep an eye on that forecast, because things can change, but as it stands, patience is the key.

Rusty

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