Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Ammonias are looking like a bit of a grind for most of us. We’ve got a window that kicks off around Saturday the 9th, but the early days are going to be a battle. The water’s sitting at a warm 80°, which is about average for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a winter suit.

The weekend starts with some cross-shore breeze and a messy, short-period swell. It’s not going to be pretty. We’re looking at around 5ft to 5ft of wind-blown ENE slop, and that’s just not going to hold up on this reef. The energy is weak, coming in at only 435 on Saturday, and the whole thing looks poor.

Sunday the 10th is more of the same, with that cross-shore breeze chopping it up. I’d honestly give the start of this period a miss. There’s a gap where the surf just isn't worth paddling out for. It’s not until the middle of the following week that we see any real pulse of energy, and it’s a big one.

Around Wednesday the 13th and Thursday the 14th, we get a proper groundswell from the south. The period jumps up to 18 seconds, and the energy readings get serious – over 1000 and even pushing 1258. This is where Ammonias could finally turn on. The direction is right, and that long period is what this reef loves. The swell is around 4ft to 5ft, which is a great size for intermediate surfers, and the winds are forecast to be cross-shore, not perfect, but workable. There’s still a bit of chop, but this is definitely the best part of the outlook, especially Thursday morning.

Now, I’ve got to give you a heads-up about this one. A 15 to 18 second period is a proper long-period groundswell, and on a reef like this, it’s a thing of beauty. The sets will be long and clean, and paddling out between them will be easier. This is the standout period. But remember, it's a week out, so treat this as promising but not locked in.

After that, the forecast gets a bit wild. The swell builds, but the quality drops off. By Friday the 16th, we’re looking at a bigger 8ft to 8ft ENE swell, but the period drops and the wind gets fresh and lumpy. It’s still cross-shore, which might make it interesting for the tow crew, but for a paddle? It’s going to be messy. And if it’s any bigger than 8ft, that’s expert-only territory.

Saturday the 17th brings a jump in size – 10ft out of the ENE. The period is still short, but there’s a brief window with a cross-offshore wind that could clean it up. If you’re a confident expert, that might be your shot. But with that much water moving and a short period, it could be a washing machine.

Then it all falls apart. Strong winds and a shifting swell direction from the SSE on Sunday the 18th, followed by more ENE windswell for the rest of the week. Honestly, after that initial promise, it looks like a few days of blown-out conditions before the energy fades back into small, weak surf. The long-range stuff in the second week is just not worth writing home about.

So, my take? If you want a wave worth getting out of bed for, keep your eyes on Thursday the 15th. That south swell at Ammonias with clean conditions is the one to chase. The rest is for kooks and masochists.

Rusty out.

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