Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got to be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead for Ammonias. We’re looking at a 16-day run that starts with nothing but frustration, and it takes a while before anything even comes close to worth paddling out for.

Right now, from Saturday the 18th of July, it’s a write-off. The swell is coming from the wrong direction (ENE) for this reef, so it’s cross-on wind with a 6ft to 5ft mess that’s choppy and poor. The combined energy is moderate (570), but it doesn’t matter – the wind and direction are against us. This junk continues straight through Saturday the 18th, all of Sunday the 19th, and into Monday the 20th. Nothing to ride here.

Then, on Tuesday the 21st of July, we finally see a shift. The wind is still cross (moderate breeze at 12 mph), but the swell direction swings around to the S with a 3ft, and the period jumps to 15 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, and the energy is moderate (598). The forecast says “marginal surf conditions or questionable tide,” so it’s not a standout, but it’s the first real chance. The water’s sitting at 80°, which is about average for this time of year. Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd stay small with that south-southwest groundswell, peaking at 3ft and a period of 20 seconds. The energy is strong (1122 to 1036), but the wind is still cross or onshore, keeping it lumpy. Honestly, it’s not great.

The best bet in this whole outlook comes later, but it’s a long way off. On Friday the 24th, there’s a bigger ENE swell building – 7ft to 7ft, with a short period of 7 to 8 seconds (wind swell), and the energy is very strong (1143 to 1312). The wind is cross, so it’ll be lumpy, but there’s size. This swell sticks around through Saturday the 25th (8ft, 8 seconds, 1383 energy) and Sunday the 26th (7ft, 8 seconds, 1381 energy). This is the only period with real push, but it’s a short-period wind swell, so it’s not going to be the cleanest. The reef setup at Ammonias might handle it, but 8ft is getting big – that’s expert territory. Crowds are often here, so expect company.

After that, things fade again. The last week of July into August is a mess of small, onshore, and cross-onshore junk. There’s a mid-month window on the 21st and 22nd of July with that south groundswell, but it’s marginal. The real standout – if you can call it that – is the 24th to 26th of July for size, but the wind kills the quality. It’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more