Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Ammonias has cookin’ for us over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with ya – this ain’t a pretty picture. We’re looking at a long, dry spell before anything even starts to look interesting.

The short-term is a write-off. From Friday the 10th right through to the end of the first week, it’s just messy. We’ve got a persistent ENE wind blowing 12 to 18 mph, mostly cross or cross-on, which is just tearing up the surface. The swell is hanging in that 5 ft to 7 ft range with a short, weak period of 7 to 8 seconds. The wave energy reads moderate, in the 400 to 900 range, but it’s all junk. There’s a consistent cross-chop or lumpy conditions, and all the scores are zeros. Nothing but poor surf. Even into the second week, those ENE winds don’t let up. The water temp is 79°F, which is bang on average for the time of year.

There’s one tiny flicker of something different around Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th, where we get a tiny spike of 2 ft to 2 ft swell from the SSW with a long period, 14 to 18 seconds. The energy dips down but still reads moderate. Problem is, the wind is still blowing cross or cross-on, and the reports are still either “poor” or “marginal.” It’s not worth paddling out for.

It isn’t until we get towards the very end of the run, starting Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th, that things get interesting. We finally see that southerly groundswell start to push through properly. The direction is SSW with periods of 16 to 18 seconds – that’s long-period, proper groundswell. The wave energy starts climbing into strong territory, hitting 882 then 950 and finally 1022. The swell size is still modest, around 3 ft to 4 ft, but that long period will give it more punch than the number suggests.

Conditions stay a problem though. Wind will be from the NE at 12 to 15 mph, cross-shore, keeping it a bit lumpy. The reports finally lift into “marginal” territory with a score of 1 or 2 out of 10. Not exactly firing, but it’s the best we’ve got.

For the standout window, if you’re desperate for a paddle, keep your eyes on Saturday the 25th afternoon. That’s when we see the strongest energy of the whole run – 1022. It’s still a small, long-period 4 ft SSW groundswell with cross-shore wind. Ammonias is a reef break that prefers SSE swell, and this is coming from the SSW, so it’s not ideal, but the long period might wrap in a few. Crowds are often an issue here, so you won’t be alone. Be aware that a 4 ft swell with a 16-second period will be more powerful than it sounds, but with that cross wind, it’s not likely to be the cleanest you’ve ever seen. It’s a long shot, but it’s the only shot.

Bottom line: this is a grim outlook. The first 10 days are a complete loss unless you’re into cross-chop. The very end of the forecast window offers a bit of hope, but it’s a long way off and the conditions are still not great. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a tough run, but forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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