Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way at Ammonias.

The next 16 days are looking pretty grim for decent surf. We’re starting off with a big gap of nothing. There isn’t a single recommendation for the first few days. The first time we even see a glimmer of hope is on Tuesday the 15th of September, and even then it’s a marginal call.

The overall pattern is messy. We’ve got swell coming in, but the wind is relentless from the east-northeast, blowing cross or cross-on, keeping things chopped up and ugly. The water temperature is about average for this time of year.

Let’s run through it. Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th are write-offs. Poor conditions with tiny, weak swell and cross-onshore breeze.

Tuesday the 15th of September morning is the first time we get a marginal nod. Swell is only 2ft from the SW, but with a nice long period of 20 seconds. That long period means cleaner energy, but the combined energy is moderate at 535. The wind is still a gentle cross-shore, so there’s a slight cross-chop. It’s not good, but it’s the best on offer early on. If you’re desperate, you might find a clean-up set, but crowds are likely here, so don’t expect much.

Wednesday the 16th sees the swell bump up a little to 3ft from the SW, period at 18 seconds, and the combined energy climbs to a moderate 607. But that moderate breeze from the NE keeps it cross-shore and bumpy. Still marginal at best.

Then things get bigger but uglier. From Thursday the 17th through to the end of the outlook, we get a mix of easterly windswell and stormy conditions. Swell heights push over 7ft, but the period drops to a short, weak 7 to 10 seconds, and the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore. Thursday the 17th has a risk of thunderstorms and 6ft of short-period junk. By Friday the 18th, we’re looking at 7ft from the east with a period of just 9 seconds and moderate cross-onshore winds. That’s not surf, that’s a washing machine. The combined energy gets strong, hitting 1319, but it’s all messy windswell. For a reef setup like Ammonias, this is only for experts, and honestly, it’s more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The pattern holds through the rest of the period. Big, lumpy, short-period swell with persistent cross-shore winds. There are a few marginal mornings, like Saturday the 26th of September with 7ft from the east, but the period is still only 8 seconds and the wind is cross-shore. You’re battling chop and no shape.

In short, the only half-decent window is Tuesday the 15th of September morning, and even that’s a stretch. The rest is a long, frustrating run of poor conditions. For an area like this, a blank run isn’t unusual, but it still stings.

Stay patient, mates. The ocean will sort itself out eventually.

Rusty.

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