Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight up – this 16-day window for Ammonias is a real grind. We’re looking at a long stretch of onshore and cross-shore winds that just won’t let up, and the swell is mostly weak and messy. There’s no standout, no real gem hiding in here. The best you can hope for is a few marginal sessions, but nothing that’ll get the heart racing.

The first week is a total write-off. Sunday the 12th kicks off with a rain shower and a strong 19 mph cross-onshore wind, making a lumpy mess of a 7 ft swell from the ENE. The combined energy hits 879 (moderate), but with that wind and short 7-second period, it’s just a choppy, poor surf situation. Monday and Tuesday are more of the same – cross-shore winds, lumpy chop, and swell dropping fast. By Wednesday the 15th, the swell is tiny at 2 ft, and even though that period stretches to 15 seconds, the cross-onshore wind keeps it ugly. This pattern holds through the rest of the first week: moderate cross-onshore winds, weak swell, and a “poor surf conditions” label on every session. There’s a slight uptick on Friday the 17th with 5 ft from the ENE, but the wind is still cross-on, killing any chance of quality.

Heading into the second week, things don’t really improve. Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th bring a bit more swell energy – 5 ft then 6 ft – but again, the wind is cross or cross-on, and the waves are just not clean. The combined energy hits 556 and 635 (moderate), but the “marginal surf forecast” label says it all. Around Wednesday the 22nd, we start seeing some long-period SSW groundswell (24 seconds!), but it’s tiny – only 2 ft to 2 ft. The combined energy jumps to 953 then 1020 (strong), but with the wind still cross-on, it’s just a clean-looking swell that gets wrecked. The rest of the week into the 27th shows a slow build of S and SSW swells, with periods between 15 and 20 seconds and combined energy in the 1000s (strong to very strong), but the wind is always cross or cross-on – never offshore. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Honestly, if you’re desperate for a paddle, the best chance might be on Thursday the 24th afternoon or Friday the 25th, when the swell is 3 ft to 4 ft from the SSW, period around 18-20 seconds, and the wind is cross-shore with a moderate breeze. The combined energy is strong (1148 and 1496), but it’s still a marginal, lumpy cross-chop. Not worth a special trip. For a reef break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to SSE swells, we’re getting nothing that matches that optimum direction – the swell is from ENE, S, and SSW, which is a poor fit. Crowds are often an issue here, but with conditions this poor, you’ll probably have it to yourself.

This is a blank run, plain and simple. For an area like this, it’s not unusual – sometimes the forecasts just line up wrong. Keep an eye on the long-range, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty

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