Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what we've got on the cards for Ammonias.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this 16-day window is a bit of a grind. The overall picture is dominated by a lot of cross-shore and cross-onshore winds, with the swell energy mostly coming from directions that don't quite hit the reef right. The water temperature is sitting at 80°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing your bits off.

The first couple of days, Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd of July, are pretty weak. We're looking at small, short-period swell – around 3ft to 3ft from the S and SSW – but it's all crossed up with a moderate breeze from the ENE. The wave energy is moderate (601 to 1091), but the wind is just making things messy. It's not worth paddling out for.

The real action, if you can call it that, starts to build from Thursday the 24th of July. The swell size jumps up, but it's a messy, short-period windswell from the ENE. By Friday the 24th, we're seeing 7ft, and into Saturday the 25th, 7ft again. The period is short, around 7 to 8 seconds, so it's all chop and no shape. The combined energy is strong (1063 to 1336), but the wind is still cross or cross-on, making it a choppy, blown-out mess. Honestly, for a paddle surfer, it's a write-off. If you've got a kite, this is where it gets interesting – that wind and lumpy water is your playground.

The best stretch, and I'm using the term loosely, looks to be from Sunday the 27th of July through to Wednesday the 30th of July. The swell drops back to a more manageable 5ft to 6ft, and the period stretches out to 13 to 15 seconds. That's a proper groundswell! The wind eases up a bit, going from a gentle to moderate breeze out of the NE and ENE. It's still cross-shore, so there will be a bit of a cross-chop, but it's the cleanest the water is going to be. The combined energy is strong (1067 to 1450), so there's some push. The swell direction is from the E and ENE, which isn't the optimum SSE for the reef, but it's the best we've got. This is the only window where you might find a few workable, if not perfect, waves.

After that, we roll into the first week of August. The 1st of August brings a jump back up to 8ft, but it's all short-period windswell again, and the wind is back to being cross-onshore. It's a step back into the messy zone. The 4th of August looks like a brief respite, with the swell dropping to 5ft and the wind easing to a light breeze, but the period is still short at 8 seconds. The 5th of August then fades out completely with tiny 2ft SSW groundswell and poor onshore wind.

So, the standout window is the end of July, from the 27th through the 30th. It's not going to be a world-class session, but it's the only chance for a half-decent surf. The bigger swell days are all blown out, and the smaller days are too weak. Keep your expectations low, and you might just snag a couple.

- Rusty

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