Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s look at what’s cooking. It’s a rough run for the next couple of weeks. There’s swell, but the wind is almost never on your side. It’s mostly short-period windswell, with a side-shore or onshore breeze messing things up. A long stretch of poor conditions before we get a real window.

From Sunday the 30th of August right through to the morning of Wednesday the 2nd of September, it’s a bust. The swell is bumpy, the wind is cross or cross-on, and the energy is weak to moderate (637 to 904). The water is 27°, which is dead average for this time of year, but the waves are a mess.

We hit a terrible patch from the 3rd of September through the 5th. The swell gets bigger, to 2.4m to 3.0m from the ENE, but it’s under a fresh 30 to 35 km/h cross-onshore wind. The energy is climbing (1184 to 1933), but it’s unsurfable. For a reef break, that’s a total loss. You’d want a kite for this, not a surfboard.

The 6th and 7th of September are a step up, but still only marginal. The wind eases to a moderate cross-shore, and the swell holds around 2.0m to 2.5m from the ENE. The period stretches to 12 seconds on the afternoon of the 6th, giving it real groundswell power, and the energy jumps (1365 to 2565). It’s not clean, but there’s more punch.

The real highlight is Tuesday the 8th of September. The morning is wild, with 5.0m of E swell on a 10-second period, and the energy is huge (4805). That is a lot of water moving. But the afternoon is the best of the whole forecast. The wind swings to the N at 25 km/h, turning cross-offshore, and the wave condition says "clean." This is the only time everything lines up. The swell is a massive 5.0m from the E, so this is for experts only. It’s going to be a heavy, powerful day at Ammonias, and the energy is off the charts (5108). This is the window to wait for.

The 9th of September is still okay, with 3.0m of ENE swell, but the wind is light and cross. The energy drops a lot (1471 to 1694). It’s a step down from the day before, but still surfable.

After that, it’s a slow fade into small, wind-affected surf for the rest of the second week. The swell drops below 2.0m, the period shortens back to 8 seconds, and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore. From the 10th of September right through to the 14th, it’s just not worth it. The energy falls to between 500 and 895, and the conditions are lumpy or choppy. A real flat, frustrating end to the outlook.

So, for the experts, you’re waiting for the afternoon of Tuesday the 8th of September. That’s the only real standout. For everyone else, it’s a long, quiet wait.

- Rusty

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