Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s going on at Ammonias.

Right now, we’re looking at a pretty tough stretch. The surf's been mostly marginal or flat, and it’s not going to get good in a hurry. There’s a solid run of onshore and cross-shore winds that will keep things messy. It’s a reef setup, takes swell from the SSE, but we’re mostly seeing ENE windswell – which is all wrong for the place. That means a lot of chop and not much shape.

The water is sitting at 81°, which is basically average for this time of year – nothing unusual there.

Monday afternoon (Aug 31) kicks it off with a 6ft ENE swell, cross wind at 16 mph. It’s just poor. The combined wave energy is weak (778), and the period is short at 8 seconds. Not worth paddling out.

Tuesday morning (Sep 1) is similar: 6ft ENE swell, still cross, still messy. The afternoon is even worse. Same story all the way through Wednesday (Sep 2) – rain showers, cross-onshore wind, chop. No go.

Thursday morning (Sep 3) sees the swell hit 7ft but with fresh cross-shore wind at 19 mph. The combined energy climbs to 1300 (moderate), but the period is still short. The afternoon has a bit of a shift – a 5ft SE swell with a 12 second period. That’s a longer interval, and the energy is 1329. But the wind stays lumpy. It’s still marginal.

Friday (Sep 4) has a 8ft ENE swell in the morning – that’s getting big, going past beginner territory and into intermediate/expert only – but still cross-shore and fresh. The afternoon switches to a 6ft SSE swell with an 11 second period, energy at 1566. Cleaner lines, but the wind is still fresh cross-shore. The stand-out window starts to form here, though it’s still not clean.

Saturday morning (Sep 5) is your first real hope. The swell drops to 5ft from the south, with a nice 12 second period – that’s a proper groundswell. Combined energy is 1448, still moderate, but the wind eases to a moderate cross-shore. The swell direction is getting closer to the optimum SSE. This is the best part of the early run: a bit of juice, a bit of period, and the wind is only cross- not onshore. The afternoon jumps back up to 7ft ENE, but with a good 13 second period and strong energy (2327). Still cross-shore though.

Sunday (Sep 6) brings thunderstorms and the wind goes cross-onshore in the morning – that’s back to poor. The afternoon is marginal again, with a 7ft ENE swell at 13 seconds.

Monday (Sep 7) has the biggest energy of the whole forecast: 2581 in the morning, 8ft ENE with a 12 second period. But it’s cross-shore, and there’s risk of storms. The size is getting into expert-only territory.

Tuesday (Sep 8) sees a shift. Wind swings to light S/SSE, cross-onshore but very gentle. Swell drops to 3ft by the afternoon from the SSW, with a really long 14 second period (energy 629). That’s a clean, long-period groundswell – perfect for a reef like Ammonias, because it won’t close out. The light wind means it could be glassy. The problem is it’s small.

From there, it’s downhill. Wed (Sep 9) back to ENE windswell, 7ft, cross-onshore and choppy. Thu-Sat sees energy drop off hard, swell under 6ft, poor conditions. By Sep 13 onwards: tiny swell under 3ft with long period from the SSW, but no power.

The two standout sessions are Saturday morning Sep 5 and Tuesday afternoon Sep 8.

- Saturday morning (Sep 5): 5ft S swell, 12 second period, moderate cross-shore wind. Not perfect but the best combo of size, direction, and period for the first week. Crowds are likely here often, so it won’t be empty.
- Tuesday afternoon (Sep 8): Only 3ft SSW swell, but with a 14 second period and very light wind – nearly glassy. That’s a pure, clean reef wave if you’ve got a log or a fish.

After Sep 8, don’t expect much. The second week goes flat with small, short-period windswell and poor wind. A long blank run from Sep 11 onward.

So for this stretch, keep an eye on Sep 5 morning and Sep 8 afternoon. Everything else is a scratch.

Rusty.

Read more