Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Ammonias has in store for us.

Alright, mates, if you’re hanging out for a wave at Ammonias, strap in – it’s a bit of a mixed bag across this 16-day stretch. This is a pretty exposed reef setup that loves a south-southeast direction, so we’re waiting for the right angle to hit. The water is sitting at about 80°, which is pretty average for this time of year, nothing wild there.

The first few days are lean. Friday the 21st we’ve got a little 2ft SSW swell, but it’s got a 17-second period on it – proper long-period groundswell. The problem is the wind is onshore, light but onshore, and the call is “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” Not a great start. Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd aren’t much chop; the swell picks up to 6ft on Sunday morning, but it’s only 7 seconds and coming from the east with a moderate cross-shore wind chopping it up. The wave energy is moderate though (643 on Sunday morning), but the poor conditions mean we are sitting on our hands.

Now, the real interest starts to brew from Monday the 26th of August onward. The swell energy is building – we’re seeing readings in the 700s and 800s. But the wind is still cross or cross-onshore, and the commentary keeps saying “marginal.” It’s frustrating. The period on that SSW swell is long, 18 seconds at one point, which is great for a reef like this, but the wind just won’t play ball.

Here’s where it gets interesting, though. We have a standout window on Monday the 31st of August and Tuesday the 1st of September. Monday afternoon sees a 10ft ENE swell rolling in with a period of 10 seconds and a massive combined energy of 2140 – that’s strong wave energy. Tuesday morning looks even bigger, with 12ft ENE swell and 2967 energy. This is legit, solid groundswell. But – and it’s a big but – the wind is a moderate to fresh cross-shore, and the notes say “marginal” and “lumpy.” For a reef break, that cross-shore wind is a serious buzzkill. This is also big swell: 10ft to 12ft is expert territory only. Beginners and most intermediates should sit this one out – it’ll be a heavy, powerful wave. Plus, with that east-northeast direction, it’s not quite the optimum south-southeast direction the reef loves, so it might not line up perfectly.

Honestly, the best bet for a clean session looks like the very end of the run, on Friday the 5th of September. The swell has dropped to 3ft from the east with a 12-second period, and the wind is light and onshore in the afternoon, going light cross-onshore in the morning. That’s not ideal, but the energy is weak (493), and it’s small. For a fun, small-wave session on the reef, that might be your only chance at something rideable without getting completely blown out. Still, don’t expect anything epic.

To be straight with you, the first week is a bust, and the second week brings size but messy, cross-shore winds. If you’re a die-hard local, keep an eye on that Monday-Tuesday window at the end of August into September, but be warned: it’s big, lumpy, and not for the faint-hearted.

Rusty.

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