Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s look at what we’ve got coming up for Ammonias over the next couple of weeks. It’s a reef setup, fairly consistent but it usually works best with a swell from the SSE. We’re starting off on Saturday, September 5th, but to be honest, it’s a bit of a rough start. The water temperature is sitting at 80.8°, which is basically average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

The first real kick comes Saturday afternoon, with a 6.9ft ENE swell rolling in, period of 13 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell with some grunt. The energy is strong, hitting 2401. But the issue is the wind. It’s blowing a stiff 16 mph cross-shore from the NE, so it’s going to be bumpy. The wave comment says it’s marginal, and I’d agree; it’s one to be wary of for clean waves.

Sunday, September 6th, sees the same 6.9ft swell, but the wind swings to ENE and kicks up a cross-on chop. The conditions are labelled poor all day, so I’d give that a miss.

Monday, September 7th, gets interesting. We’ve got a much bigger 8.2ft SSW swell in the morning (energy 5036), and it jumps to a solid 13.1ft by the afternoon with a massive 9382 energy reading. That’s a lot of water moving. But the period is a long 15 seconds, and with a fresh 19 mph cross-on wind, it’s going to be lumpy and messy. The wave comments are all “poor surf conditions.” This much swell with onshore wind? Honestly, it looks more like a day for the kite crew than a traditional paddle session. Too big and blown out.

Tuesday the 8th is still messy with an 8.2ft S swell and a 19 mph cross-on, then drops to 5.9ft in the afternoon. Still choppy. No go.

There’s a gap of a few days here where the score is never above a 1 or 2. Wednesday the 9th drops right down to 3.0ft, but the wind is onshore from the SE. Those 14-second periods are nice, but there’s just not enough juice.

The real standout appears around Monday, September 14th. We start to see a bit of life. The swell picks up to 6.6ft from the ENE, period 8 seconds, and the wind drops to almost nothing – a mere 3 mph from the ENE. That’s light cross-shore conditions, meaning the surface should be clean with just small wind ripples. The energy is moderate (567), and the wave score bumps up to a 2. On Monday afternoon, the same 6.9ft ENE swell with light cross-shore winds (3 mph) gives us an energy of 757. This looks like the best window for a decent, clean-ish session. High tide might be your friend here, as the reef will be doing its thing.

Tuesday the 15th morning keeps the 6.9ft ENE swell with light winds, score a 2 again. By Tuesday afternoon, a new 2.3ft SSW groundswell with a very long 20-second period shows up. That’s a clean, lined-up wave, but it’s small.

The pattern then holds for the rest of the week with small to moderate swells (2.6ft to 5.9ft) and light winds. The SSW swells on the 16th and 18th have long periods (17-18 seconds) delivering moderate energy (around 764 to 1450). The wind stays light cross-shore or cross-on, so it’s not perfect, but it’s surfable and not crowded feeling from what I can tell.

Looking into the second week, Friday, September 18th afternoon gets a score of 3 – the highest I see in the whole run. A 3.9ft SSW swell with a 17-second period and light 6 mph cross-shore wind gives us clean-ish, peaky waves. Saturday the 19th morning also gets a 2, with a 3.9ft SSW swell and light onshore wind from the SE.

Overall, we’ve got a bit of a rough first week with too much wind and big, messy surf. The good news is, it cleans up from the 14th onwards. The best bet is Monday 14th and Tuesday 15th for that ENE swell with light winds, or hold out for the cleaner, longer-period SSW groundswells around Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th. Just keep in mind that long-period SSW swell on a reef can be a bit straight at times, but it should still offer some gems.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the wind shifts.

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