Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. I’ve run the numbers on Ammonias, and it’s a grim picture, mate. We’re looking at a full 16-day stretch from Friday, July 3rd through Saturday, July 18th, and there’s not a single session I’d recommend. The pattern is all cross-shore winds and choppy, short-period windswell. A few days get flagged as “marginal,” but the quality’s just not there.

Starting on Friday, July 3rd: Ammonias has a 6 ft swell from the ENE with a short 8-second period. Wind is a solid 16 mph cross-shore from the ENE. Combined wave energy is 652 (moderate), but it’s called marginal – the wind’s ruining it.

Saturday, July 4th brings a long-period groundswell from the south, around 3 ft with a 20-21 second period. That’s good shape potential, but at a reef break like this, a long period can run a bit straight. The wind is still 16 mph cross-shore. Morning energy hits 1194 (strong), afternoon is 1018 (strong), but the wave comment is marginal. Crowds are likely here, so you’d be dealing with a mess. Water temp is 79°, pretty average for the season.

Sunday, July 5th: Swell from the SSW at 3 ft, 18-second period, but wind cranks up to 19 mph from the NE in the morning – lumpy cross-chop. Energy is 1081 (strong) in the morning, 903 (moderate) in the afternoon, with a “poor” call. Skip it.

Monday, July 6th: Swell jumps to 7 ft from the ENE, but period drops to 8 seconds – classic windswell. Wind is 16-19 mph cross-shore. Combined energy hits 1055 (moderate to strong), but it’s poor to marginal. At 7 ft, it’s too big for beginners, and with that chop, it’s for experts only. Honestly, the setup looks better for kite surfing than paddling.

Tuesday, July 7th through Thursday, July 9th is a rinse-and-repeat: consistent ENE swell around 6-7 ft, periods stuck at 7-8 seconds, cross-shore winds at 12-16 mph. Combined energy stays moderate (411-893), but wave calls are either “poor” or “marginal.” No clean windows.

From Friday, July 10th through Saturday, July 18th, it’s a long, bleak stretch. Swell drops to 2-3 ft from the SSW with longer periods (14-16 seconds) on a few days, but the wind never lets up – cross or cross-on from the ENE or NE at 12-16 mph. Combined energy falls to weak levels (188-379). The only flicker of hope is on Monday, July 13th and Tuesday, July 14th with some “marginal” calls, but the wind state and short-period windswell on the 14th kill it.

Bottom line: nothing’s worth paddling out for at Ammonias in this 16-day window. The consistent cross-shore winds and short-period swell are a bust. It’s a blank run, which isn’t unusual here when the trades lock in. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye out, but for now, leave the board at home.

Rusty.

Read more