Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Ammonias over the next couple of weeks.

First thing you’ll notice: the first bit of the run ain’t exactly shouting. We’ve got a window opening up from Wednesday morning, September 16th, but it’s goin’ to be a fight for any kind of decent session. The pattern for the whole 16 days is dominated by a lot of cross-shore wind and only marginal conditions at best.

Alright, let’s get into it. Wednesday the 16th morning, we’ve got a long-period groundswell pushing in from the SSW at 3 ft, with a period of 18 seconds. Combined energy is running at 655 (moderate wave energy). That’s a nice, clean-looking groundswell on paper, but that ENE wind at 12 mph is blowing cross-shore, putting a chop on the face. It’s marked as marginal, and honestly, it’s gonna be a struggle to find a clean one. Thursday the 17th afternoon sees a jump in size to 7 ft from the ENE, but the period drops to a windy 7 seconds and the cross-shore wind is still there – that’s just bumpy, drifty junk.

Friday the 18th morning is the best of a fairly ordinary bunch. We’ve got 3 ft from the SSW again, period of 17 seconds, and combined energy has bumped up to 1072 (moderate to strong wave energy). The wind is still cross-shore from the ENE at 16 mph, so it’s not glassy, but for a reef break like Ammonias, that long period means the sets will have some push and shape. This is about as good as it gets in this run – it’s the standout window. After that, it’s a long grind. From Saturday the 19th all the way through to the end of the month, it’s a mix of small, weak swell and then windswell. The end of the first week and the whole second week sees a lot of ENE swell wrapping in at 5 ft to 7 ft, but the period is short, often 7-9 seconds, and the wind stays cross-shore or turns cross-onshore. Energy numbers bounce around from 655 to 1146, but the quality just isn’t there – lumpy, messy, and chopped up. That stretch from around September 24th through the 28th looks particularly rough, with strong breezes and poor conditions.

There’s a long gap in real quality here. From the marginal window on the 18th, it’s pretty much a write-off until maybe the tail end. Even the last few days of September and into October 1st, you’re looking at wind-affected, short-period swell with cross-shore winds. Nothing is clean enough to call a proper session.

So, bottom line: if you’re keen, your best bet is Friday morning the 18th at Ammonias. That 3 ft, 17-second SSW groundswell will have some grunt, and the cross-shore wind is a pain, but on a reef, the lines might hold up better than anywhere else. For everyone else, it’s a long wait. There’s no solid, clean swell and good wind combo on the cards for the rest of the run. It’s one of those stretches where the ocean feels busy but not inviting. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Stay patient,
Rusty.

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