Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ over the next couple weeks.

Honestly, the whole 16-day window is a bit of a struggle. We’re not talking shut-downs every day, but the quality just isn’t there to get excited about for most of it. We’ve got a long gap of marginal to poor conditions stretching from now right through to the end of August. The first real glimmer of something interesting doesn’t show up until the very end of the run, and even that comes with a but. Let’s break it down.

For the first ten days or so, from Thursday the 20th right through to the end of August, it’s mostly onshore or cross-shore breezes messing up the surface. Thursday the 20th has tiny 2 ft swell at 17 seconds, long period but weak combined energy of only 226 – pretty underwhelming, and with a cross breeze, it’s not doing much. Friday and the weekend stay small at 2 ft, with poor conditions flagged right through. By Sunday the 23rd, the swell bumps up to 6 ft but it’s short period windswell at 7 seconds from the east, and the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore – lumpy and uninviting. That trend of messy, mid-range east swell with cross wind holds through Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The combined energy climbs into the high hundreds and low thousands by late week, but the wind keeps everything choppy.

Now, the standout window – and it’s a big qualifier – appears right at the end. On Monday the 31st of August into Tuesday the 1st of September, we see a proper jump. Monday afternoon brings 8 ft swell from the ENE with a period stretching to 12 seconds, and the combined energy rockets to 2029 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind holds cross-shore at 16 mph, so it’s not glassy, but it’s rideable. By Tuesday morning, the swell peaks at 12 ft from the ENE with 11-second period and combined energy hitting 2856. The wind drops right back to a light 6 mph cross-on breeze – that’s promising for clean-ish conditions if it holds. This is serious size. 12 ft is advanced only – that’s expert territory. The offshore direction is a light cross-on, so it’s not perfect offshore, but with the wind that light, the surface will be workable.

Ammonias is the only break on offer, and at the end of the run, it looks like the best bet. On Monday the 31st and Tuesday the 1st, we’ve got that big ENE groundswell. With the period over 12 seconds, it’s a proper groundswell, and that works well for a reef setup like this. The optimum swell is from the SSE, so the ENE direction is a bit off, but the sheer size and energy make up for it. Water temperature is sitting around 80°F, which is about average for this time of year – nothing weird going on there. Be aware, this spot can get crowded, and it’s fairly consistent, so there will be others on it. For the few days leading up to that, from the 27th to the 30th, you’re looking at 3 ft to 4 ft southerly and easterly swell with cross winds – just not worth paddling out unless you’re desperate.

After Tuesday the 1st, the swell drops back to the 7-8 ft range on Wednesday the 2nd with a light onshore breeze, and then it tapers off through the 3rd and 4th back into the messy 6 ft east swell with cross wind. That second week loses the magic.

So, one standout: the end of the month into early September at Ammonias. Big, powerful ENE groundswell, light wind on Tuesday, expert-only size. That’s where I’d point the van.

Rusty.

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