Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let me tell you, this forecast is a tough one to write. The next week and a half is looking pretty bleak for a decent paddle. The wind is stuck in that ENE/NE pattern, which means it’s mostly cross-shore or cross-on at Ammonias, and that’s just chopping everything up. We’ve got a lot of poor conditions and low scores on the board for the first week.

The one real standout doesn’t show its face until Sunday the 16th. That Saturday the 15th is going to be a mix of building but messy swell—cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions with waves pushing 10ft to 12ft, and the energy is climbing fast. But it’s the Sunday morning that has me interested. We’ve got a 15ft SSE swell with a 14-second period, and the energy reading is through the roof at 9119. That’s a serious pulse of groundswell. The problem is the wind is still cross-shore, so it won’t be glassy, but it’s the biggest and most powerful swell we’re going to see in this whole window. The swell direction is dead on the money for Ammonias’ optimum from the SSE, too. That’s the one to get excited about, but it’s a big one—15ft is expert territory, way over the 8ft mark. The afternoon drops back to 10ft at 11 seconds, which is a bit more manageable but still a heavy, powerful wave. This is a day for the experienced crew only.

Before that, there’s a glimmer on Wednesday the 12th. The swell is smaller, but the period is a long 18 seconds, and the energy is moderate to strong at 1238. The waves are only 4ft, so it’s not a stand-out, but that long period is nice. It’ll be breaking cleanest at a reef like this, but the cross-shore wind is still going to put a bit of chop on the face. It’s a marginal call, not a headline act.

After that Sunday the 16th pulse, the energy drops off hard. The following week is back to smaller, short-period ENE windswell, mostly in the 4ft to 6ft range, with periods around 6 to 8 seconds. That’s weak, choppy, and not worth paddling out for. The wind stays cross-shore, and the conditions just stay messy. There’s another small pulse of SSW swell on the 22nd, but it’s weak and cross-on, so don’t get your hopes up.

So to sum it up: the first two weeks are a write-off for the most part. The standout is Sunday morning the 16th—that’s the one. Big SSE groundswell, decent period, and the energy is massive. It’s a beast, but it’s the only real surf on the horizon worth getting excited about. The rest is a battle with the wind and messy, short-period slop. Keep the board in the car for that Sunday, and maybe give the kites a thought for the rest, because that cross-shore is going to be more fun for them than for us.

Rusty.

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