Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Ammonias over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, I gotta be honest with you – it’s a pretty bleak picture. The whole 16-day window is looking mostly flat or messy, with only a few flickers of hope that are more about the idea of a wave than a real session.

The pattern is dominated by onshore and cross-shore winds, choppy conditions, and a lot of small, weak swell. The water’s sitting at 80°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year – nothing weird there.

The first real chance to even think about paddling out comes on Wednesday, August 12. We’ve got a bit of a pulse from the south, with a long period of 18 seconds, pushing the swell up to 4 ft. The combined energy is moderate (1210), but the wind is a moderate cross-shore, creating a cross-chop. It’s a marginal call, but if you’re desperate, the morning of the 12th is the cleanest it gets, with a light cross-onshore. Still, it’s not great.

The same goes for Thursday, August 13. The morning offers 5 ft of S swell at 16 seconds, with moderate energy (1193), but again that cross-shore wind ruins the party. Afternoon gets worse. Friday and Saturday are a write-off with fresh cross-shore winds and lumpy, choppy conditions.

Now, Sunday, August 16, is the only proper standout in the whole window. The afternoon sees a clean, cross-offshore breeze from the NNE at 35 km/h. The swell is 8 ft from the ENE, with a period of 11 seconds, and the energy is strong (1534). This is a solid, legitimate swell size, but at 8 ft, it’s getting into the “experts only” territory. It’s a reef break that needs the right direction, and the optimum swell here is from the SSE, so this ENE swell is a bit off-angle. Still, the clean conditions are a major positive. It’s the best on offer, but it’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it. Crowds are likely at this spot.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. Monday, August 17, sees a much bigger 10 ft swell from the ENE, but with strong onshore winds and a storm risk, it’s a total mess. Then the rest of the second week is a long, flat gap of tiny, weak SSW swell and onshore wind. There’s a bit of a bump on the 25th and 26th of August, with moderate energy and a chance of a marginal wave, but the wind is still cross-onshore and choppy. It’s a long, quiet run.

So, here’s the bottom line: if you’re desperate for a wave, the morning of Wednesday, August 12, is the pick of the first week, but it’s marginal. The only real standout is Sunday, August 16, in the afternoon, with clean conditions and a solid 8 ft swell – but it’s for experts, and it’s a long way off. For the rest of the time, it’s a long blank run. The forecast can change, but right now, it’s a tough one.

Rusty.

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