Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Ammonias. Gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one to get excited about.

Right off the bat, we’ve got some hefty swell on the way, but the wind is just ruining it. The forecast shows a lumpy, choppy mess for the vast majority of the next 16 days. The real standout, and the only time I’d even consider paddling out, is a very brief window on Wednesday, September 9th. That morning, the wind swings light and onshore from the SE at 6 mph, dropping the lumpiness. Swell is small at 3 ft from the SSW with a long 14-second period (moderate wave energy of 633). It’s still a marginal call, and the waves will be small, but it’s the cleanest we’re going to see. The crowd situation at Ammonias can be an issue, but with conditions this marginal, you might have it to yourself.

The water temp is sitting at 81°F, which is bang on average for this time of year – no surprises there.

From Saturday, September 5th through to Tuesday, September 8th, it’s a write-off. Strong winds from the ENE and E, gusting 15 to 22 mph, all cross-on or cross, creating a choppy, lumpy surface. The swell is there, with moderate energy in the 2000s, but it’s ugly. By Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th, the swell picks up to 8 ft and even 11 ft, but with that onshore wind, it’s just a big, blown-out mess. That’s expert-only territory if you’re silly enough, and honestly, with that wind, it’s more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

After that brief clean moment on the 9th, we go back into a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions. From Thursday the 10th all the way through to Sunday the 20th of September, the story is the same: east-northeast winds blowing 9 to 15 mph, mostly cross-on or cross, keeping the surf choppy and weak. The swell drops off significantly, with wave energy falling into the 500s and 600s, and the period shortens to 7-8 seconds – that’s short-period, windswell junk. There are a few late-period groundswell pulses from the SSW (16-18 seconds) showing up around the 16th and 17th, but the swell height is tiny (3 ft) and the wind is still messy. It’s a tease.

So, bottom line: the only real chance for a clean wave is that Wednesday morning, September 9th. It’s not going to be big, but it’ll be the best of a bad lot. The rest of the 16 days? A long, frustrating gap. Stay patient.

Rusty.

Read more