Ammonias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into the forecast for Ammonias.

We’re looking at a pretty long stretch of challenging conditions here. The first week is a write-off, with messy, onshore or cross-shore winds and weak, short-period swell. Things don’t start to look interesting until the second week.

Starting off, Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th are a total loss. The wind is coming from the ENE, either cross-on or cross, and the swell is small and weak, with combined energy in the low hundreds (332 to 466). The water temp is 80°, which is perfectly normal for this time of year.

Sunday the 9th shows a slight bump in size to 5ft-6ft, but the ENE wind is still a moderate 12-16 mph and cross-shore, making it messy. The energy ticks up to around 600, but it’s still just marginal. Monday the 10th through Tuesday the 11th are in the same boat – mostly poor, with ENE cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions.

The real talking point, and the only standout in this entire 16-day window, is Wednesday the 12th through Thursday the 13th. A proper long-period S swell arrives, with periods of 15 to 18 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a strong 1000 to 1227. The swell height is modest at 3ft to 5ft, but that long period will bring some serious shape and power. Wind is still cross from the ENE, so it won’t be glassy, but it’ll be workable. For a reef break like Ammonias (exposed to SSE swells), this S swell is a near-perfect match. This is your best chance to get a wave, but keep in mind it’s a fairly consistent spot, so there will be sets.

From Friday the 14th onwards, things get messy again. The wind picks up to 19 mph, and by the 15th and 16th, the swell switches back to a short-period ENE, with heights up to 7ft. That’s a lot of bumpy, cross-chopped water. The combined energy is strong to very strong (856 to 1037), but with the wind and direction, it’s more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. This messy pattern holds through the end of the window, with only marginal moments on the 21st of August.

So, short story: Tough first week, then a real window of opportunity on the 12th and 13th with a long-period south swell at Ammonias. After that, it’s back to the grind.

Rusty.

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