Stockton Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next 16 days at Stockton look like a pretty tough stretch for paddle surfing. The whole forecast period is a long, quiet run with hardly any real energy on offer, and what does show up is mostly blown out or too small. There’s a big gap at the start with nothing worthwhile, and then finally a couple of days that might get a little interesting, but they’re a long way off.

Right now, through the end of August and into the first week of September, it’s flat to tiny. Friday the 28th has a tiny 1ft south-east swell with a weak 36 combined energy, onshore wind, and just a poor mess. Saturday morning the 29th is clean but still only 1ft, and the whole weekend stays small and messy. Monday the 31st has a clean 1.0ft, but it’s barely a ripple. The water temp is sitting at 77°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – not a big deal, but you’ll notice it.

The first real pulse of energy comes on Wednesday the 2nd of September, with a 3ft south-east swell, but the period is a weak 4 seconds and the wind is a cross-onshore SE breeze at 15 mph, making it choppy. The combined energy hits 233 – moderate – but it’s not clean. The next morning, Thursday the 3rd, has a similar 3ft swell but with a 6-second period and 15 mph cross-onshore wind again. Not worth paddling out for.

There’s a long gap from Thursday the 3rd through to the 8th of September, with nothing but tiny, mostly clean but flat waves. The biggest day in that stretch is a 5ft swell on Monday the 7th, but it’s a short-period, cross-onshore mess with a 174 combined energy. It’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a surfable wave, honestly.

Finally, on Wednesday the 9th of September, we get a proper look. The morning brings a 4ft SSE swell with a long 14-second period, clean cross-offshore wind, and a solid 434 combined energy. That’s the best of the whole run. The afternoon improves even more – 5ft SSE swell, glassy conditions, and a combined energy of 807. That’s strong wave energy, and it’s the standout of the entire forecast. The long period (14 seconds) means it’s a groundswell, and at a beach/jetty setup like Stockton, it might break a little straight, but with glassy wind and decent size, it’s your best shot. Keep in mind that it’s over a week away, so treat it as promising but not locked in.

Thursday the 10th drops back to a 2ft swell, and from there it’s back to small, clean but tiny waves through the rest of the second week. The 5ft swell on the 9th is the only real highlight, and even then it’s only a moderate score for quality. If you’re a beginner, that 5ft might be a bit much, but for everyone else, it’s the one to aim for. For the rest of the 16 days, you’re better off waiting for the next change.

Rusty.

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