Stockton Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Stockton’s got cooking for us over the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, it’s a pretty flat and forgettable run for the next week and a half. We’ve got a long stretch of tiny, weak, and mostly choppy conditions from Friday the 11th all the way through to Saturday the 20th of September. Most days are showing poor surf with next to no energy – the combined swell energy barely gets into double digits, often sitting between 13 and 45 (weak energy). You’ll see a lot of small 0.7ft to 3ft swells, with periods as short as 4 to 9 seconds, and the winds are mostly cross-onshore or onshore, messing up what little there is. A few mornings, like Monday the 14th, have clean offshore winds, but with only 1.0ft to 1ft of swell, it’s barely a ripple. Not worth paddling out for unless you’re just after a float.

Then things start to shift around Sunday the 20th. We get a pulse of moderate energy with combined swell energy jumping to 217 to 273 (moderate). Swell height picks up to 5ft to 5ft from the ENE, with a short 7-second period. The wind is offshore to cross-offshore from the N to NNE, which keeps the surf clean. This is a bit punchy for beginners – over 5ft – but for the experienced crew, it’s the first real chance at some waves. It’s still not a standout by any means; the short period means it’ll be a bit fat and sectiony at a beach/jetty setup like Stockton.

Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd keep similar size at 5ft from the E and ENE, with fresh cross-offshore winds. Energy builds from 243 up to 427 (moderate). Still short period (7-9 seconds), so the shape won’t be world-class. This is more of a “get wet and get a few” situation than anything memorable.

The best chance in the whole run looks like Wednesday the 23rd of September. Swell hits 6ft from the E, with a 9-second period, and the combined energy jumps way up to 869 (moderate to strong). The wind is light from the SE, just a cross-on breeze with small ripples. That’s a decent amount of size – over 5ft, so it’s getting too big for learners, but it’s not quite expert-only at under 8ft. The period is still on the shorter side, so it’ll be a bit lumpy and less defined, but for Stockton, this is as good as it gets in this forecast window. It’s the only day I’d seriously point anyone towards. Keep in mind this is over a week away, so there’s some uncertainty, but the numbers suggest it’s the standout.

After that, Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th drop back to 3ft to 4ft with clean conditions but less energy, and by Saturday the 26th it’s fading into small, cross-onshore mush again.

One thing to note: the water temperature on the first recommended day (Friday 11th) is 77°F with a 6°F anomaly. That’s *much warmer than normal* for this time of year – a very unusual warm spell, so don’t expect a thick wetsuit.

So, overall, it’s a long wait. A solid 9 days of barely-there surf, then a few days of average but rideable waves from the 20th, with the best shot being Wednesday the 23rd. If you’re keen, mark that date. Otherwise, the forecasts can always change, and it tends not to stay this flat forever.

Rusty.

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