Stockton Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. I’ve been staring at the charts for the next couple of weeks and, well, it’s gonna be a grind. There are no proper waves on the horizon for the whole 16-day window. Not a single standout day, no secret swell, nothing. It’s just a whole lot of small, weak, and messy surf, so if you’re hanging for a proper session, you’re gonna be disappointed. The only spot we’ve got to work with is Stockton, and even then, it’s a tough sell.

Let’s break it down. The run starts off real slow. From Monday the 10th through to the 16th, we’re looking at tiny swell, mostly under 3 feet, and with winds that are all over the shop. The water temp is sitting at 77.4° which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year. A bit of a novelty, but it won’t save the surf. Monday and Tuesday are poor, with light cross-shore breezes and ripples on the surface. Wednesday the 12th cleans up a bit with a light breeze and some clean conditions, but the swell is still only at 2 feet with a short, weak period of 4 seconds. That’s not surf, that’s just a wobble. Thursday the 13th is glassy in the arvo, but again, the swell is just not there. The weekend brings a bit more push on Sunday the 16th – up to 4.3 feet – but it’s coming with a fresh onshore southerly, so it’ll be chopped up and messy.

The second week, from the 17th, actually shows a little more energy. We start to see some longer period swells, with periods stretching up to 15 seconds on Tuesday the 18th. But the height just doesn't come with it. We’re still looking at knee-high slop, around 1 foot to 1.3 feet. The energy is starting to build though, with the combined energy reading hitting 145 on the 19th and 261 on the 20th. That’s a solid amount of energy, but it’s being directed into a tiny, weak swell. It’s frustrating, to say the least. Winds stay mostly cross-shore or onshore, keeping things lumpy. The only real positive is that a few of the mornings are clean, like the 17th and the 23rd, with gentle offshore or cross-offshore winds. But on those days the swell is still only 1.3 feet to 2 feet. That’s a lake, not a lineup.

Basically, we have a long, drawn-out period of marginal, sub-par conditions. The first week is truly flat, and the second week only offers a tease of energy without the size. For beginners, it might be okay for a splash around, but anyone looking for a wave with a bit of shape and power is better off staying home. The one thing that might be worth considering on the bigger, windier days like Sunday the 16th or Thursday the 20th, is that the onshore wind and small, weak swell at a beach/jetty setup like Stockton would be more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers. It’s bleak out there. Hang in there.

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