Stockton Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll give it to you straight – the next two weeks in the Newcastle area are mostly a flat spell. There’s a long gap at the start with nothing doing, then a brief pulse of energy kicks up around the first week of September, but wind and conditions will try to ruin it. Let’s go through it day by day.

We kick off on Tuesday 25 August with next to nothing. Stockton has a tiny 1ft swell from the SE, period around 11 seconds, and the combined energy is a weak 21 – basically a pond. Northwest winds are cross-offshore, keeping it clean, but there’s zero push. This same story drags through Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and the whole weekend into the start of next week. From 25 August right through to 31 August, you’re staring at a solid week of nothing worth paddling for. Swell stays under 2ft most days, with short periods and weak energy readings (16 to 66). Even the glassy Wednesday morning with 1ft and 5 km/h SSW wind is a frustrating tease – clean but powerless.

Around Tuesday 01 September, there’s a faint hint of longer-period groundswell – 1ft at 15 seconds from the SE – with a morning offshore from the NNE. Energy is still weak at 51, and the wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” Not a standout. Wednesday 02 September is similar with a 1ft, 12-second SE swell and light offshore wind in the morning (energy 55). Clean, but you’d be hunting for scraps.

Now Thursday 03 September is the first real bright spot. The morning shows a 5ft swell from the ENE with a period of 7 seconds. That’s short-period windswell, and the combined energy jumps to 251 (moderate). The wind is light and cross-offshore from the NE, keeping it clean. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” This is the best window in the whole outlook. Stockton is a beach/jetty setup, and 5ft is pushing towards too much for beginners, but if you’ve got some experience, it’s game on. The ENE direction is a solid match for the optimum SE. Keep in mind, with that short 7-second period, the waves will be a bit crumbly and tight – better for a shortboard. The morning session is the pick. Afternoon sees the same size but onshore wind creeps in, making it choppy. This Thursday morning is your one true standout.

Friday 04 September jumps in size – 5ft in the morning from the east, energy at a strong 596 – but the wind is onshore from the south at 20 km/h, and the wave comment is “poor surf conditions.” That’s blown-out and messy. Saturday 05 and Sunday 06 September hold some energy (energy around 345-353) with 3-3ft swells from the ESE at a long 12 seconds, but the wind is strong cross-offshore from the ENE at 25-30 km/h. The wave comment says “poor surf conditions,” and the sea state is fresh cross-shore with lumpy chop. That’s a kite-surfing setup, not a paddler’s. The long period (12 seconds) might sound good, but at a beach break like Stockton, those long-period SE/ESE swells can break too straight and won’t offer much shape.

From Monday 07 September onward, the energy drops off a cliff – readings in the 50s to low 100s – with small swell and onshore or cross-shore winds. Not worth the wetsuit. The final morning on Wednesday 09 September has a 2ft SSE swell with a cross-offshore breeze from the ENE, energy at 54, and the comment “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” That’s the last whisper of a chance, and it’s a long way off.

Water temperature? Nothing unusual for this time of year.

In summary: the entire first week is a washout. Your one true standout is the morning of Thursday 03 September at Stockton – get it before the wind swings. After that, conditions turn ugly or the swell fades. It’s a lean stretch, but that Thursday morning has some grunt and clean faces.

Rusty.

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