Stockton Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

Look, I’m not going to sugarcoat it: the next couple of weeks are looking proper flat and messy for our shores. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak surf and the winds are all over the shop. It’s one of those times where you’re better off fixing the dings or checking the tides for a different hobby. There’s a real gap in any decent action from now through the middle of the month, with only tiny, poor-quality waves showing up. It’s not until around the 19th that we finally see a pulse of energy, but even then, it’s going to be ordinary.

The first week is a write-off. From Saturday the 8th right through to about Monday the 18th, we’ve got nothing but knee-high slop. The swell’s coming in from the SSE and SE at a miserable 0.7ft to 2ft, and the period is short—mostly 4 to 7 seconds—so there’s no push or shape to it. Combined energy is weak, reading values as low as 7 and up to 52, which tells you there’s just nothing out there. Early on, the winds are cross-onshore, making it choppy, and even when it goes glassy on Monday the 10th, there’s no swell to ride. The 17th sees a bit of a breeze build from the ENE at 19 mph, but it’s still tiny and clean, which is a waste of a clean day.

The first real glimmer comes on Wednesday the 19th. Overnight we pick up a bit of southerly swell, with a height of 4ft on Wednesday morning and a period of 4 seconds. The water temp is sitting at 76°, which is about average for the time of year. The energy jumps to 70, which is still weak, and the wind is glassy in the morning, so it might be worth a paddle if you’re desperate. It’s still pretty average, though, and by the afternoon it’s cross-onshore and bumpy.

Then we get a bit more life on Thursday the 20th. The swell drops back to 3ft from the SSE, but the period stretches out to 7 seconds. The morning is clean with a light cross-offshore wind, and the combined energy reads 105, which is moderate. This is probably the pick of the bunch, even if it’s not big. By the afternoon, the wind swings to a moderate offshore from the NNE at 12 mph, making for clean conditions, but the swell is fading. Still, for a brief window, it’s rideable.

After that, it’s back to small and uninteresting. The 21st has offshore winds, but the swell is only 2ft, and from the 22nd onward we’re down to 1ft again with light cross-offshores. The period stretches to 9 seconds, but there’s no size. The energy drops back to the 30s and 40s, confirming the lack of push.

So, what’s the standout? Honestly, there isn’t one worth bragging about. If you’ve got to get wet, the Thursday the 20th morning session at Stockton is your best bet, just for the cleaner conditions and slightly better energy. It’s still not a classic, so keep the expectations low. The 19th morning with the glassy conditions and the biggest swell of the period is the other one to consider, but the short period means it’ll be soft.

It’s a tough stretch, but these flat spells never last forever. The swell direction is swinging around to the ESE by late in the period, which is closer to the optimum for Stockton, so there’s hope for the future. Keep an eye on the charts; things can change.

Catch you down the beach.

Rusty

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