Stockton Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, we’ve got a pretty lean run ahead for the next couple of weeks. The swell is tiny, and the wind is all over the shop. There’s a bit of a gap before anything even looks surfable, and even then, it’s not gonna set the world on fire. Let’s break it down.

We’re starting off at Stockton (beach/jetty). The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing crazy. For the first week, from Wednesday the 26th of August right through to the start of September, it’s just flat and messy. The swell is a pathetic 0.3ft to 0.4ft from the SE, with periods mostly around 8 to 9 seconds – weak, wind-affected junk. The combined wave energy is tiny, hovering between 18 and 54 – barely a ripple. Most mornings are glassy, but with no swell to work with, it’s like having a perfect engine and no fuel. Afternoons get chopped up by onshore breezes. There’s nothing to ride here.

Then we hit a proper dry spell. From Sunday the 30th of August through to Tuesday the 1st of September, it’s all zero scores – no recommendations at all. The swell drops to a piddly 0.2ft, and the energy bottoms out around 11. A couple of days with no surf on offer, just flat calm.

Now, we finally see a tiny glimmer on Wednesday the 2nd of September. The morning shows a 0.4ft SE swell with a period of 12 seconds, and a clean cross-off breeze from the WNW. The wave energy nudges up to 51. It’s small, but the conditions are clean. The afternoon gets even better – the wind goes glassy from the SSW, swell the same height, period 11 seconds, and energy at 56. For this stretch, this is the pick of the bunch. But let’s be real, it’s tiny. You’ll be scratching for ankle-biters, but it’s the only time you won’t be paddling on a millpond. If you’re a beginner, the 0.4ft is perfectly safe. The swell direction (SE) isn’t a great match for the optimum SE direction, so it’s not gonna be world-class, just rideable.

After that little window, it shuts down again. Thursday the 3rd of September is another glassy morning but with no energy (48). Then from Friday the 4th of September through to Thursday the 10th of September, the swell tries to push up a bit – we see 0.6ft to 0.9ft from the E and ENE, with periods around 7 to 9 seconds. The energy climbs into the low 100s (106 on Friday morning, for example). Sounds promising, right? Nah. The wind is all onshore – S, SSE – so every bit of that swell is chopped to bits. The wave comment says “poor surf conditions” the whole time. For a beach/jetty setup like Stockton, this is more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers.

The very last entry, Thursday the 10th of September morning, shows a clean offshore breeze from the North at 20 km/h. Swell is a tiny 0.3ft from the SE, period 9 seconds. It’s clean, but there’s just no wave energy. It’s a glassy, empty ocean.

So to wrap it up: this is a bleak outlook. There’s a roughly 3-day gap of no surf at all in the first week. The only real standout is the afternoon of Wednesday the 2nd of September – it’s the one chance for a clean, glassy, tiny wave. Everything else is either flat or blown out. Give it a few days, forecasts can change. But for now, don’t get your hopes up.

Rusty.

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