Stockton Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you – this is one of those outlooks where you might wanna take up a different hobby for a while. The whole 16-day window for Stockton is a write-off for decent surf. There’s not a single standout, not one session that’s worth paddling out for. The forecast keeps spitting out “poor surf conditions” right through, so we’re looking at a blank run from the get-go.

Let’s start with the first few days. On Friday afternoon, July 10th, we’ve got a tiny 1 ft swell out of the SSE with a short period of 6 seconds and weak wave energy (23). The wind is a cross-on from the WSW at 6 mph, so it’s small and messy. Water temp is 75°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Saturday morning, July 11th, is even worse – the swell drops to 0.7 ft, and while it’s glassy, there’s simply no energy (10). The onshore winds and strong cross-off breezes that follow just keep things flat and ugly. Through to Monday, July 13th, we see a brief bump in energy to 104, but it’s still only 3 ft of east swell with a short period and cross-on wind – not a wave you’d bother with.

The whole first week is a grind of tiny swells, weak energy, and poor wind. The system barely coughs up anything. From July 14th to the 19th, it’s the same story: swell heights under 2 ft, periods mostly 6 seconds or less, and energy values that rarely crack 50. The only time it’s glassy or clean is when the swell is basically non-existent.

Now, if you’re looking for a silver lining, there’s a pulse of energy that builds in the second week. On the morning of July 21st, the swell nudges up to 4 ft from the SSE with a period of 9 seconds and moderate energy (188), and the wind is cross-off from the NE at 12 mph – so it’s clean. But the wave comment still says “poor surf conditions.” It’s a tease. The next day, July 22nd, morning sees 4 ft swell, same direction, 9-second period, and energy climbs to 229, with gentle cross-shore wind. But again, the forecast says no dice. By the afternoon of July 23rd, the swell hits 6 ft out of the SSE, period 8 seconds, and energy is strong at 416, but the wind is onshore from the S at 22 mph, making it blown-out and messy. That kind of size and onshore wind is more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session.

The truth is, Stockton is a beach/jetty setup and it’s consistent, but the quality never shows up. The swell direction is mostly SSE or S, which is fine for the break, but the wind and weak periods kill it. Nothing here is a go. Forecasts can change, but for now, it’s a long, dry spell.

Rusty.

Read more