Stockton Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next sixteen days at Stockton are a tough watch. We’ve got a real flat spell on our hands. The first few days are a write-off, with tiny swell and a lot of rain and wind to deal with. There’s a bit of a pulse of energy showing up around the 27th and 28th of August, but it’s nothing to write home about. The whole period is rated as poor surf conditions, and the numbers back that up. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, weak waves.

Let’s start with Wednesday the 19th. Morning has a tiny 1ft swell from the SE with a period of 10 seconds, but the combined energy is a weak 35, and it’s just not doing anything. The afternoon is even smaller. Thursday the 20th is a write-off with 1ft and a glassy morning, but it’s still poor. Friday the 21st is the same story – tiny 0.7ft swell with a moderate breeze. Saturday the 22nd is a complete mess with heavy rain, a risk of thunderstorms, and a short-period 2ft swell that’s onshore and choppy. Sunday the 23rd is glassy but still only 1ft. Monday the 24th has a 0.7ft swell with a very long period of 12 seconds, but the energy is only 21 – it’s just not enough.

The real “standout” – and I use that word loosely – is around the 27th and 28th of August. On Thursday the 27th, we get a 1ft to 2ft SE swell with a period of 12-13 seconds and the combined energy jumps to 125 and 132 (moderate). The wind is a strong cross-off from the NE at 25 mph, so it’s clean, but that’s a lot of wind for a 2ft wave. It’s still poor surf. Friday the 28th is the best of a bad lot: a 2ft SE swell, period of 10 seconds, and the combined energy hits 201 (moderate). The wind is a fresh cross-off from the NE at 19 mph, keeping it clean. For Stockton, a beach/jetty setup, this is about as good as it gets in this window, but it’s still a beginner-level wave. The swell direction is SE, which is the optimum direction for this spot, so that’s a tick. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual.

After that, it fades fast. Saturday the 29th drops back to 2ft, and Sunday the 30th has a glassy morning with a 1ft SE swell, but it’s back to tiny. The rest of the first week of September is a dribble of 0.3ft to 3ft swell with no real energy. The long-range stuff around the 2nd and 3rd of September is a bit more promising with a 3ft S swell, but it’s onshore and choppy.

Overall, this is a bleak run. If you’re desperate, the 27th and 28th of August are your best bet, but keep your expectations on the floor. It’s not a time for the grommets or the beginners to learn – the swell is just too small and inconsistent. For the more experienced crew, it’s a no-go. The setup here looks more interesting for a kite than a paddle on those windy days, to be honest.

Rusty.

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