Stockton Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – for the next couple of weeks, Stockton is looking like a pretty tough stretch. We’ve got a full 16-day window ahead, but honestly, we’re looking at a long run of tiny, poor-quality surf. The overall pattern is flat, weak, and uninspiring. There’s a gap right from the start with no real surf to speak of, so don’t bother checking the bank until well into the second week.

Let’s walk through it. Starting Monday morning, 6 July, it’s messy with a risk of thunderstorms and a cross-on wind from the SE at 9 mph. Wave height is a meagre 0.7 ft from the ESE with a period of 9 seconds – combined energy is a paltry 18 (weak). That’s basically a lake. This same tiny, choppy theme carries through Tuesday and Wednesday with heights barely scraping 1 ft and periods under 10 seconds. The water temp is sitting at 77°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a 6°F anomaly, so you won’t need a thick suit, but you will need patience.

Thursday morning, 9 July, we get a brief flicker: an onshore wind from the S at 9 mph, tiny 1 ft swell from the E with a period of only 6 seconds. Energy is 28 (still weak). It’s poor, but the wind direction is offshore – that’s about the only positive. That clean-ish window doesn’t last. Friday and the weekend stay small and weak, with the best being Friday afternoon’s 2 ft from the S, period 6 seconds, energy 37 (weak). Winds are cross-off from the NW at 9 mph, so it’s clean but tiny.

The only standout worth mentioning in the whole outlook is Monday, 13 July. That morning we see a jump to 5 ft from the ESE, period 7 seconds, with combined energy hitting 235 (moderate). Winds are cross-off from the ENE at a fresh 19 mph, keeping it clean. That’s a noteworthy size for the area – and it’s a beach/jetty setup, so it’s exposed and will catch that pulse. Forecaster note: that energy is in the three-digit moderate range, so there’s some push. But the short period (7 seconds) means it’ll be a bit lumpy and not super well shaped, so it’s best for experienced surfers who can handle a bit of chop. Beginners should sit this one out.

After that, Tuesday 14 July drops back to 2 ft, energy 66 (weak), and the rest of the week fades into tiny, weak swells again. Towards the end, Saturday 18 and Sunday 19 July offer glassy conditions on Sunday morning with 2 ft from the SSE, period 6 seconds, energy 33 (weak) – clean as a whistle but barely breaking. It’s a long-range call and less certain, but for absolute beginners or longboarders looking for a cruise, that might be the best of a bad bunch.

Overall, don’t expect much. Stockton is consistent in that it breaks often, but the quality is low. There’s only one day that really stands out, and that’s Monday 13 July for the size. Everything else is flat or just not worth paddling out for. The water is unusually warm though, so at least you won’t freeze waiting.

This setup is more suited to a kite surfer than a paddle surfer for most of the window, especially with the stronger breezes mid-period.

Stay keen, check the banks, and don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

Read more