Stockton Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got to level with you – this outlook for the Stockton region is a real downer. We’re looking at a full 16-day window and the honest truth is there’s not a single good surf option in the bunch. The forecast is a long, flat, and messy stretch with no real standouts to get excited about. It’s one of those blank runs where the ocean just isn’t cooperating.

Let’s walk through it. Kicking off on Tuesday, 18th August, we’ve got tiny 1ft swell from the southeast with a short 6-second period and only 21 combined swell energy – weak as can be. Early morning has a light offshore wind from the NNW, but the waves are just too small. By afternoon, the wind swings SE and turns cross-onshore, making it even less appealing. This pattern barely changes for days. Wednesday, 19th, we see a bit more period (10 seconds) but still just 1ft and a weak 35 energy. The morning offers a clean look with a cross-offshore breeze, but there’s no power behind it.

Thursday, 20th August, drops to 0.7ft, and Friday, 21st, is the same – 0.7ft, but at least Friday morning is glassy calm with zero wind. Still, you can’t surf a ripple. The energy readings are all two-digit numbers, consistently under 100, which tells you there’s no real grunt in the water. Saturday, 22nd, sees a small bump to 3ft from the east, but the period is a dreadful 5 seconds and the combined energy is just 56. It’s a junior swell with no shape, and the wind is cross-onshore. Sunday, 23rd, has 3ft from the SSE, but again, 5-second period and 63 energy. The wind is either cross or onshore, so it’s all messy.

Monday, 24th August, is the closest we get to anything. The morning has 2ft from the south with a 6-second period, 52 energy, and a clean offshore wind from the NNW. The file calls it “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” and I’d agree – it’s a tiny, weak wave but at least it’s clean. Nothing to drive for, though.

From there, it’s back to the doldrums. Tuesday, 25th, Wednesday, 26th, Thursday, 27th – all poor. The swell stays tiny, and the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, often gusty. Thursday afternoon does see a jump to 4ft from the south with a 7-second period and 298 energy, which is a moderate energy pulse, but the wind is a messy cross-onshore from the WSW, so it’s choppy and unappealing. Friday, 28th, is clean with a cross-offshore breeze, but only 3ft from the SSE with 105 energy. It’s small, clean, but not worth a paddle.

The second week (starting 29th August) is more of the same. Saturday and Sunday are clean with cross-offshore winds, but the swell is 1ft to 2ft – tiny. Monday, 31st, shows a 5ft pulse from the east with 242 energy, which is moderate, but the period is 7 seconds and the wind is onshore by afternoon. It’s too bumpy for good surf. The season ends 1st and 2nd September with 2ft to 2ft and no improvement.

For a beach/jetty break like Stockton, which is exposed to the southeast, this is a dry spell. The swell direction is mostly from the SE or ESE, which is the optimum direction for the spot, but there’s just no size or period to work with. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Crowds are “sometimes” a problem, but with this little surf, you’ll mostly have the place to yourself.

Look, this is a tough run. The area tends to have these blank periods, and forecasts can always change, but right now, I’d say leave the board at home. If you’re desperate for a paddle, Monday, 24th August morning is your best bet – it’s clean, but it’s barely a wave. For kite surfers? The stronger winds on some afternoons might make the setup interesting, but the swell is too small for that too.

Stay patient, mate. The ocean will come back around.

Rusty

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