Flat Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. It’s gonna be a proper wait-and-see kind of run, with a fair bit of chop and cross-shore junk to sort through before anything truly worth getting excited about shows its face.

The water temp is sitting at 69° which is about normal for this time of year, so no dramas there. You won’t need the full rubber, just your usual spring suit.

The first few days are a write-off, plain and simple. Monday afternoon has a weak 3ft SSE swell at 10 seconds, but it’s cross-on with a moderate breeze (12 mph), making everything choppy. The energy is weak (146), and the call is poor. Tuesday’s not any better, with a tiny 2ft swell that morning (93) and then a junky 4ft NE windswell in the arvo, all cross-shore and lumpy. Wednesday sees the swell start to push up, hitting 8ft in the morning and 10ft by the afternoon, but it’s still cross and messy, plus the wind is fresh out of the south at 22 mph. Energy jumps up (728 and 1407) but it’s useless for a paddle.

Now, Thursday the 17th is where things look like they get properly serious. There’s a solid 10ft SSE swell with a 10-second period. The energy is strong (1895) and the morning wind is a cross-offshore 16 mph, which cleans it up. But here’s the catch – this is way over head and a half plus. This is expert-only territory, and honestly, it’s predicted to be too big for this break. If you’re a charger it might be tempting, but I’d give it a wide berth unless you’re properly in the know.

After that big pulse, Friday the 18th settles down to a much more manageable 6ft SSE swell, and the morning has light SSW winds at 6 mph, making for clean conditions. The energy is moderate (498) and the period is 9 seconds. This is the standout of the whole run, a proper window where the wave quality and size line up for some decent rides. But as the day wears on, it drops to 4ft and the wind swings cross-on, so make the most of the morning.

The weekend and beyond looks like a fade-out. Saturday has a 4ft SSE swell, but it’s cross and only marginal. Sunday morning is glassy with a long 11-second period on a small 2ft S swell, which is surfable but nothing special. That’s about as good as it gets until we jump to Tuesday the 22nd, where there’s a clean glassy morning with a 5ft SSE swell, but it’s short-period junk at 6 seconds. There’s a bit of push there (199), but the quality is ordinary.

Looking further ahead into the second week, the pattern is frustrating. From the 23rd through the 28th, there’s continuous swell in the 4ft to 6ft range, but the wind is stuck in the cross-on or cross-shore mode, mostly out of the NNE to NE at 9 to 19 mph. It’s going to be lumpy, raggedy, and mostly a chore. There’s a glimmer on Tuesday the 29th morning with a cross-off SSW breeze and a clean look on a 4ft ENE swell, but it’s not enough to get the heart racing. The energy levels across this whole period are moderate (300 to 500), but the constant onshore junk will keep the surface messy.

So, the real standout here is Friday morning the 18th. Everything else is either too big and gnarly, or too small and chopped up. It’s a patient week, but Friday has some promise for sure.

Rusty out.

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