North Stradbroke - Pt Lookout Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let's be honest, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. We've got a massive run of howling southerly winds and messy, blown-out swell that's just not going to deliver for a while. The first decent window is a long way off, so strap in.

The main issue is that a strong southerly airflow sets in from Saturday the 18th, with near gale-force winds smashing the coast. Swell heights are up there, around 8ft to 13ft from the SE and ESE, but the combined wave energy is huge – well into the thousands (952 to 3082) – and it's all wind-affected slop. It's an absolute mess. A south-easterly strong breeze continues through Monday the 20th, still with 8ft to 10ft of swell, but still cross-off and rough. The "clean" comments in the data are misleading; at those wind speeds, it's a washing machine, not a surfable wave. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

From Tuesday the 21st, the swell does drop, going from 6ft down to 5ft by Wednesday the 22nd, but the wind stays strong from the SE until it finally eases. Wednesday afternoon sees a brief moment of hope, with a glassy 4ft swell from the east – the first time we get a break from the wind. The wave energy is a weaker 211, and the period is a short 8 seconds, so it's not going to be world-class, but it's the first surfable moment. The water temperature is 71°F, which is about average for the time of year. Thursday the 23rd is small, with 3ft east swell, but it's clean and light. It's small, but it's surfable.

Then, just as we get a little hope, another strong southerly push arrives on Friday the 24th. We're back to strong offshore winds, 8ft of short-period SE swell, and another 769 of combined energy. It's clean, yes, but that's a strong offshore breeze that will make it a battle just to get out, and it's not a quality wave. That messy pattern continues right through the end of July, with small, weak, and often wind-affected surf. From around the 27th to the 31st, the swell is tiny, under 3ft, and the wave energy is barely registering (22 to 96). It's a real flat spell.

Now, here's the standout, and it's a long-range one, so keep your fingers crossed. On Saturday the 1st of August, we see a new pulse of swell – 8ft from the NNE, with a short period of 7 seconds. The wind is a fresh cross-off SE breeze, so while it's not perfect, it's the biggest clean swell we've seen in over a week. The combined energy is back up to 945. The optimum swell direction for Point Lookout (North Stradbroke - Pt Lookout) is from the east, and this is coming from the north-northeast, so it's not the best angle, but it's something. Keep in mind, this is a week and a half away, so it's promising but not set in stone. Sunday the 2nd is smaller and messy again.

So, to be honest, the only real standout is that Wednesday afternoon, the 22nd of July, with the glassy 4ft easterly swell. It's small, it's low energy, but it's the only window where the conditions and the wind align to give you a clean, manageable wave. Everything else is a battle with the wind or non-existent.

Rusty.

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