Sebastian Inlet-First Peak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you — this forecast for the coming couple of weeks is a tough one. We’ve got a long, quiet stretch ahead with barely a ripple worth paddling for, so don’t go clearing your schedule just yet.

Right now, and through the first week, the surf is flat to tiny. Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th are offering up nothing but ankle-slap — 1 ft at best from the east, with a weak 8-second period and combined swell energy hanging around a measly 20 (that’s barely a breath). The wind is light and mostly cross-off or glassy on some mornings, so the water will look pretty, but there’s simply no push. Water temp is sitting at 83°, which is about average for this time of year, so the only thing worth doing is a long float.

Monday and Tuesday the 7th and 8th aren’t any better — waves staying below 1 ft, energy in the 15 to 35 range. Not worth the wax.

It’s not until Wednesday morning the 9th that we see a tiny pulse of hope. Sebastian Inlet-First Peak (that’s our only break in the game right now) will see a touch of 3 ft swell from the ENE with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy climbs to 90. That's still weak, but it’s the best we’ve got. The morning looks glassy — zero wind from the ESE — so conditions could be clean. Still, it’s poor surf, not worth a special trip. Thursday the 10th is similar, with 2 ft and glassy morning conditions.

Now here’s the kicker — from Friday the 11th right through to Thursday the 17th, we’re looking at a solid gap of no real surf. Swell heights sit around 0.7 ft to 2 ft, periods are short (6 to 8 seconds), and combined energy rarely breaks 50. It’s a proper flat spell. The wind is light but mostly cross or cross-on, so don’t expect a clean runner.

Then, around Friday the 18th, things try to change. A bigger pulse of 4 ft swell from the NE creeps in, with a 9-second period, and combined energy jumps to 398 — moderate energy. That’s more like it, but the problem is the wind: onshore from the ENE at 9 mph. That’s messy. The same goes for Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th, with 3 ft to 4 ft NE to E swell, but constant onshore winds gusting 12 to 19 mph. This is going to be choppy, blown-out, and honestly, it looks more like a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session. The direction isn’t ideal for the inlet either — optimum swell is from the NE, and we’ve got east in the mix, so it won’t line up perfectly.

So to sum up: the standout window, if you’re desperate, is Wednesday morning the 9th at First Peak with 3 ft and glassy conditions, but don't expect much. The second week — especially the 18th to 20th — has more size but gets wrecked by onshore wind. You might find a gutter if the wind swings, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty

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