Sebastian Inlet-First Peak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – this 16-day window for Sebastian Inlet-First Peak is a real tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions, with hardly anything to get excited about. The first recommendation doesn’t come until the 5th, and even then it’s a slow start. From the 5th right through to the 20th, it’s a grind of tiny, weak waves and messy winds. There’s a big gap of dead flat days, and the only real pulse of energy comes late in the second week, but it’s still not great.

Alright, let’s break it down from the start. On Saturday, 5th September, we’ve got tiny swell around 1 ft coming from the ESE, with a period of just 8 seconds. The combined swell energy is a weak 42. The wind is a cross-on from the east at 6 mph, making it bumpy. It’s a risk of thunderstorms too, so the water temp is 83° – that’s about 1° cooler than normal for this time of year, so nothing to write home about. This is a no-go for a paddle.

Sunday, 6th September, morning clears up with a light offshore from the west at 6 mph, but the swell drops to 1 ft from the east and the energy is a pathetic 11. It’s clean, but there’s no waves. The afternoon sees a cross-off from the southeast, but same story – 0.7 ft and 6 energy. This trend of tiny, clean but flat conditions continues through Monday, 7th September, and Tuesday, 8th September, with swell barely reaching 1 ft and periods of 8-9 seconds. Tuesday morning does have a clean offshore from the NNE at 6 mph, but the swell is only 1 ft from the ENE, with a period of 11 seconds – that’s a longer period but no power behind it, energy at 27. It’s still a skip.

Now, Wednesday, 9th September, we see a slight bump. Swell picks up to 3 ft from the NE, period 9 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 130 – that’s moderate. But the morning has a cross-shore wind from the ESE at 6 mph, making it choppy, and the afternoon gets a stronger cross-on from the ESE at 12 mph, turning it into a mess. Still poor.

Thursday, 10th September, and Friday, 11th September, are similar – 3 ft to 1 ft swell, ENE direction, short periods of 7-8 seconds, and energy ranging from 141 down to 24. Winds are mixed, but it’s all cross-shore or cross-off, never clean. The best of this bunch is Thursday morning with a light cross-shore, but the swell is small and weak.

Saturday, 12th September, morning offers a rare glassy moment – wind from the SSW at 3 mph, flat calm – but the swell is only 1 ft with 11 energy. It’s pretty, but you’d be bobbing around. The rest of the weekend and into the next week is all the same: tiny swell, gentle to moderate cross-onshore winds, and energy staying below 100. From 13th September through to 18th September, it’s a desert of 1 ft to 1 ft surf with ENE swell and periods of 7-9 seconds, energy in the teens and twenties. It’s a kite-surfing kind of setup, not for a paddle.

Finally, on Sunday, 20th September, we get a bit of a pulse. Swell is 2 ft from the ENE, period 10 seconds, and the combined energy hits 90 – the highest we’ve seen since the 9th. The morning has a gentle cross-on from the east at 9 mph, but the afternoon is onshore from the ENE at 9 mph, making it messy. It’s still poor, but it’s the closest we get to a wave that might hold up. Not a standout, just the least bad of a bad lot.

So, honestly, there’s no standout here. The entire 16 days is a write-off for decent surf. The water is average temp for the season, the winds are mostly a nuisance, and the swell is consistently too small. If you’re desperate, the morning of 20th September might give you a knee-high slider, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. The conditions are more suited for a kite than a shortboard. Keep an eye on the forecasts, but for now, it’s a flat spell.

Rusty.

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