San Juan Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's cut through the noise and see what's actually happening.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. For the next 16 days, from now through the 17th of August, the surf is on the menu, but the conditions are almost always a letdown. The wind is relentless, coming straight onshore from the north or north-northeast, and it's just destroying any chance of clean waves. The swell is mostly short-period windswell, around 6 to 8 seconds, lacking any real punch.

The first real chance for a surf is from Sunday, August 2nd, but it's a poor start. The swell is tiny, around 4ft from the NNE, but with a 12 mph onshore wind, it's a messy, blown-out affair. The wave energy is weak (205). This pattern just locks in for days. The waves get a little bigger, up to 6ft by Thursday the 6th, and the energy kicks up to moderate (560), but it's all for nothing with that onshore wind. It's the same story, day after day.

The only break we have to look at is San Juan, a reef setup (exposed, best with a NNW swell). This place is a consistent expert-level wave, but for this whole period, it's going to be a battle. The wind is never favorable, and the swell direction is mostly from the north, which isn't its optimum. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The closest we get to a standout is the period around the 14th and 15th of August. The swell is building, hitting 7ft from the NNE with a slightly longer 8-second period, and the wave energy is strong (552-556). But even then, the wind is still howling onshore at 19 mph. For a surfer, this is a write-off. Honestly, with that much swell and that much wind at a beach setup, this looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The crowds are "sometimes" an issue, but with conditions this poor, I doubt you'll have to worry about a lineup.

The last day of the forecast, Monday the 17th, sees the swell drop back to 6ft, and the energy is still moderate (410), but that same old NNE wind is still blowing. It's a frustrating outlook. There are no "good" days in the window. It's a blank run that's pretty normal for this area when the wind sets in like this.

Rusty, signing off.

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