San Juan Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. Rusty here. Let’s talk San Juan. I gotta be blunt – the next 16 days are a real struggle for anyone with a paddle. The first week and a half is pretty much a bust. The wind is relentless – mostly onshore or cross-onshore, blowing 12 to 19 mph most of the time. Every single wave comment in the forecast says “poor surf conditions.” It’s choppy, lumpy, and just plain ugly.

The first chance for surf comes on Friday, September 4th, but don’t bother. A weak, short-period 3-foot swell from the NNW (combined energy a measly 108) with a 12 mph cross-onshore wind. Not worth a look. This pattern holds hard through the weekend and into the next week. Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th see the swell bump up to 4–5 feet, but it’s all short-period windswell (6 seconds) and the wind is still a fresh 19 mph onshore. The combined energy climbs to 309 by Sunday afternoon, but the quality is trash. Monday the 7th through Wednesday the 9th is more of the same: 4–5 feet of short-period NNE swell, but always with a fresh 15–19 mph onshore wind. The combined energy hits moderate levels – around 400 – but it’s wasted on the chop. Thursday the 10th is no better. That’s a solid week of nothing worth paddling for.

There’s a tiny glimmer on Friday the 11th of September. A long-period (12 seconds) NNW groundswell sneaks in at 3 feet, and the combined energy jumps to a solid 678. The direction is right in the sweet spot for San Juan. But – and it’s a big but – the wind is still a cross-onshore mess at 19 mph. Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th see the swell drop to 3–4 feet, with lighter winds (9 mph) and cleaner conditions. The combined energy drops to moderate (around 182-216). It’s rideable on a foamie, but not a standout.

From Monday the 14th to Tuesday the 15th, the swell falls off to 2–3 feet. Tuesday afternoon sees a jump in wind (19 mph cross-onshore) and a spike in combined energy to 341 with 4-foot swell, but it’s still messy.

Now, here’s where you need to be an expert. On Wednesday the 16th of September, we get a real pulse: 7 feet of NNE swell (8 seconds), with combined energy hitting a strong 904. That’s a lot of water. But the winds are an onshore 19 mph, and it’s still “poor surf conditions.” Thursday the 17th is similar – 7–7 feet of NE/NNE swell with combined energy around 745, but it’s cross-onshore again. This swell is too big for beginners – over 8 feet – and with the onshore wind, it’s a washing machine. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Your best actual shot in the whole 16 days is that long-period pulse on Friday the 11th of September. Even though the wind let it down, the groundswell quality (12 seconds) and the direction (NNW) hitting the optimum mean if you find a sheltered reef or point, you might snag a few. But it’s a long shot.

The water temperature is a touch warmer than normal at 75° – about 3° above the average – so that part feels good, but it doesn’t help the waves.

The consistent onshore wind and chop make this a tough period. The pay-off on the 16th and 17th is promising in size, but it’s two weeks away and the wind is still bad. I wouldn’t be booking a trip. Keep an eye on it, but for now, leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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