San Juan Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the San Juan area over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, I gotta be honest with you – this is a tough stretch. We’ve got a solid 16-day window here, but it’s a real bumma. The whole forecast is riddled with “poor surf conditions” flags, and it’s all because of the wind. For the first week and a half, we’re lookin’ at a relentless onshore breeze – mostly from the NNE to N, blowing at 18 to 28 mph. That’s gonna trash any chance of clean waves. The swell is there, but it’s a short-period, wind-driven mess at 7 to 8 seconds, and it’s comin’ from the same direction as the wind. That’s just a recipe for choppy, blown-out, lumpy lines.

We do have some size, with the swell pushing 8 ft to 10 ft at times, especially around the 25th of July and again into the 2nd of August. But with that wind, it’s just gonna be a washing machine. The combined energy gets up there – moderate to strong in the 1000s (1176 on the 25th morning, 1282 on the 25th afternoon) – but it’s all for nothin’ with the conditions. Because of the size and the wind, this setup actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s too big for beginners when it’s over 5 ft, and once it’s over 8 ft, it’s really only for experts, but even they’d be lookin’ at a battle.

The only break on the cards is San Juan, a reef setup that’s consistent and exposed, but it needs a clean window. The optimum swell direction is NNW, but we’re gettin’ hammered from NNE and N, so it’s not even the right angle. The water temp is sittin’ at 73°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

The closest thing to a window might be the very end of the forecast. On July 31st, the wind drops a bit, and we get a slight shift to a NE direction in the morning at 12 mph, with a period stretchin’ to 9 seconds. That’s a bit more promising. But come August 1st and 2nd, the swell jumps back up to 8 ft to 10 ft, and the wind goes cross-onshore, so it’s back to messy.

The one standout? I’d have to say the morning of July 31st (Friday). The wind is onshore but only a moderate 12 mph from the NE, the swell is a manageable 5 ft from the N with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (343). It’s not perfect, but it’s the least bad option in the whole run. Still, you’d be paddlin’ out into onshore wind, so keep the expectations low.

Pretty much the whole 16 days is a write-off for clean surf. The first week, from the 20th of July right through to the 29th, is a solid block of poor conditions. After that, things get a little less intense but still not good. We don’t get a single day with clean, offshore wind. It’s a tough one.

Stay tuned, forecasts can change. But for now, I’d be findin’ somethin’ else to do.

Rusty.

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