San Juan Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for this neck of the woods. To be straight with you, the next couple of weeks are gonna be a bit of a grind for surfers here. We’ve got consistent swell, sure, but the wind is the real problem – it’s blowing onshore pretty much non-stop for the first stretch, and that’s trashing the conditions. I’d say we’re looking at a blank run right through to the end of the first week.

The main break we’re talking about is San Juan, a reef setup that needs a very specific offshore wind to work its magic – it likes a light wind from the southwest, but we’re getting a strong, steady northeasterly instead. The water temp is 76°, which feels a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Starting off on Monday the 24th of August, we’ve got a 6ft swell from the NNW with a period of 11 seconds, giving us a combined energy of 809 – that’s a moderate amount of energy. But the NNE wind is howling at 15 mph, right onshore, so it’s going to be a messy, blown-out affair. That pattern just keeps repeating. Tuesday the 25th, same story – 5ft swell, still onshore wind. Wednesday is smaller, dropping to 3ft, and the energy falls off to 145. By Thursday the 27th, the period collapses to just 4 seconds, and we’re down to a paltry 40 energy. That’s weak, wind-affected chop.

Into the weekend of the 29th and 30th, the swell size actually picks up again, hitting 8ft on Saturday morning with a longer period of 11 seconds and a strong energy of 1920 – that’s getting into strong territory. But again, the wind is still onshore, so while there’s power there, it’ll be a full-on, bumpy battle. This run of poor conditions stretches all the way through to the start of September.

The first real glimmer of something different comes later on Sunday the 6th of September. We see the wind finally shift to a lighter northwesterly, dropping to 9 mph, and it’s cross-onshore. The swell is 5ft and the conditions are still pretty choppy, so it’s not a winner, but it’s a change.

The best of what’s on offer, and I mean the one and only standout, looks to be the morning of Monday the 7th of September. Now, this is over a week away, so treat it as a promising but less certain call. We get a big groundswell from the WNW – 4ft but with a very long period of 20 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1094. That period is key; it means proper, powerful lines. And here’s the big difference: the wind becomes light cross-shore from the WNW at just 6 mph. At a reef like San Juan, that long-period groundswell is ideal, and light cross-shore winds will give us clean, well-shaped waves. The afternoon sees a similar 4ft swell from the WNW at 18 seconds and energy of 1232, but the wind turns slightly cross-onshore, so the morning is the clear pick.

After that, the wind goes back onshore again, and we’re back to average, poor conditions. So, if you’re keen, mark your calendar for that Monday morning, the 7th of September. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only window that’s likely to offer up something properly surfable in this whole forecast.

Rusty.

Read more