San Juan Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. I’ve had a good look at the charts for the San Juan area, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough run ahead. The problem isn’t a lack of swell; we’ve got a consistent pulse of energy coming in from the north-northeast, but the wind is just wrecking it. For the first week and a half, it's blowing straight onshore or cross-onshore, making a mess of things. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

The first real chance for a wave is from Friday, 31st July, but it’s a write-off. We’re looking at a 5ft swell from the NNE with a short, weak 7-second period, and a 16 mph wind from the same direction. The combined energy is moderate (258), but that onshore wind is going to turn it into a washing machine. That’s the story all the way through the first week: swell heights bouncing between 3ft and 5ft, but with that onshore wind, it’s just poor surf conditions. There’s a gap from the 31st of July right through to the 7th of August where there’s simply nothing ridable.

Now, we start to see a bit more size building around Sunday the 9th of August. Swell from the NNE hits 6ft, with a period creeping up to 7 seconds, and the combined energy is getting strong (392). But again, the wind is still onshore at 16 mph. It’s a bit of a tease.

The standout window, and I mean the only one with any real promise, looks to be from Saturday the 15th of August. The swell is still a solid 6ft from the NNE, with a 7-second period, and the energy is strong (351). The key difference is the wind drops to a moderate 16 mph onshore. For a reef break that is exposed and needs clean conditions, the onshore wind is still a problem. It’s not a classic day, but it’s the best we’ll get in this whole forecast period. San Juan is a reef setup, and it’s consistent, but it’s for experts only – this size swell is at the upper limit for most, so don’t even think about it if you’re not solid. The wind will mean it’s going to be a bit lumpy, but the energy is there. It’s a long way out, so take it with a grain of salt, but it’s the only light on the horizon. Crowds are possible here, so expect company.

For the rest of that second week, we’ve got a non-stop train of onshore wind and moderate swell. From the 10th to the 14th of August, the wind is howling from the north-northeast at 19 to 28 mph, with the swell hovering around 5ft to 6ft. The combined energy is strong (384 to 454), but with that kind of wind, it’s a blown-out, choppy mess. It’s more of a kite-surfing setup than anything for a paddle surfer.

So, what’s the call? The 15th of August is the one to pencil in. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only day that’s even close to rideable. Everything else is a write-off. Hang in there, the forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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