Bajo el Medio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Looking at the surf cams, it’s a quiet picture for the next 16 days at Bajo del Medio. We are looking at a long, dry spell where the waves just don’t have the size or the wind for a good paddle. A real long gap of nothing happening until the end of the month.

Starting off on the morning of Wednesday the 19th, we have a dinky swell at 0.7 ft from the NNW, period a short 8 seconds. The wind is a cross-onshore breeze from the North at 9 mph, so it's already choppy and messy. The combined energy is a weak 9. Water temperature feels about average for the time of year.

This weak pattern hangs on tight. Through Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st, the wind picks up to 16 mph from the North, still cross-onshore, and the swell barely makes it to 2 ft with periods under 8 seconds. The energy rating is low, barely in the double digits. It’s not happening.

The weekend of Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd brings more of the same. Swell sits at 0.7 ft to 1 ft. On Saturday, the North wind is at 16 mph, making it lumpy. By Sunday, the wind turns onshore from the NNE at 12 mph. There's nothing to recommend.

We drag through Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th. We see the combined energy get over 50 by Monday afternoon, but the swell is only 2 ft and the period is a weak 7 seconds. The NNE wind hits 19 mph – still a stiff, messy breeze. Not a surfer’s friend.

The only time the ocean tries to wake up is around Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th. The swell bumps up nicely to 3 ft and the period stretches to about 9 seconds. The combined energy hits 155, which is moderate energy. But here’s the killer – the onshore and cross-onshore winds from the NNE and NE are howling at 22 mph. That’s a fresh breeze that will absolutely wreck the surface. For an intermediate reef break, that strong cross-onshore wind makes it bumpy and unrideable. It’s the only real pulse, and it’s completely blown out.

After that, the swell fades back to 1 ft on Saturday the 29th with a long-period 11-second NW groundswell. The energy drops into the 70s and 80s, and the wind is still a fresh cross-onshore NNE breeze at 19 mph. Just not worth it.

The last few days, September 1st to the 3rd, we are back to tiny, weak surf with a messy chop. No standouts to be found in this entire window. For us surfers, it’s a total washout.

Honestly, with the consistent onshore wind and small, weak waves, this setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than for a paddle surfer. It’s a blank run for us. Forecasts can turn around though, so don't lose hope.

Stay tuned.
Rusty

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