Bajo el Medio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gather 'round, surfers. Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – the next couple of weeks look pretty grim for the region. There's no standout day, no magic window. We've got a long stretch ahead with barely a ripple worth paddling for.

The only spot on the radar is Bajo el Medio (Rocky Point). It's a sheltered reef break, inconsistent at the best of times, and it only really gets going with a proper NW swell. Looking at the forecast, we just aren't getting that. The combined swell energy is weak, often sitting in the single digits or low double digits (like 8, 14, 25), and only briefly bumps up to moderate levels around the 28th of August (109) and 29th (129), but even then, the wind is a problem.

For the first few days, from Sunday the 23rd of August right through the rest of the month, it's a story of small, weak swell with cross-onshore winds. You're looking at knee-high waves, if that, with a constant chop. The wind stays out of the north and northeast, blowing across the wave face and messing up any potential shape. It's not worth getting wet for.

We finally see a pulse of energy on Friday the 28th of August, with the swell height bumping up to 3 ft in the morning and 3 ft in the afternoon. The combined energy hits 109 and 132 respectively – finally some moderate push. But here’s the kicker: the wind is blowing onshore from the NNE at 22 mph, making it lumpy and hard to ride. That’s not surfable conditions, it's a washing machine. The 29th of August is a similar story, with 3 ft swell and strong NNE winds.

After that brief flare-up, it fades back to small, weak, and choppy conditions through the first week of September. On the 6th of September, the swell height jumps to 4 ft with a combined energy of 203, but once again, the cross-onshore wind from the NNE at 16 mph will keep it messy. There is no point in the entire 16-day window where the wind and swell align to give clean, rideable waves at Bajo el Medio.

It's a tough outlook. When a spot like this is inconsistent and the swell doesn't match its optimum NW direction, you're just waiting for a better day. Right now, there are none. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, but that’s small comfort.

Keep the board in the car, but maybe don't wax it yet. This is a long, flat stretch. Forecasts can change, but for now, it's a hard pass.

Rusty.

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