Bajo el Medio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's talk about what we've got.

Alright, I’ve got to be straight with you – the next 16 days are looking pretty grim. We’ve got a run of poor surf conditions that just keeps going. The first real break in the pattern doesn't show up until the end of the first week of August, and even then it's not a classic.

The only spot on the radar is Bajo el Medio, a sheltered reef break that’s inconsistent. We’re looking at a long stretch of nothing from Friday, July 17th, all the way through to Thursday, July 31st. That’s two full weeks of tough conditions. The wind is a constant problem – it's coming from the north and north-northeast, blowing cross-onshore at 15 to 22 mph, just chopping everything up. Swell is tiny, mostly 1.3 ft to 3.0 ft from the northeast, with a short period of 7 to 8 seconds. The combined wave energy is weak, barely cracking 100 (48 to 131) for most of that period. It’s the kind of stuff that makes you want to stay on the beach. The water temperature on July 17th is 73.4°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – a little silver lining, I guess.

Now, there is a spike in the data starting Monday, July 27th. The swell picks up to 5.0 ft on Monday morning from the north-northeast, with the combined energy jumping to a strong 467 – that’s a real change. But the wind is still a fresh cross-onshore, so while there’s more water moving, the surface is going to be lumpy and messy. It’s not the clean, lined-up wave you want. Tuesday, July 28th, is similar, with a 3.6 ft swell from the northeast and moderate cross-onshore wind. The energy is moderate to strong (313 and 223), but the quality just isn’t there.

The one standout, and I mean the only one worth getting any kind of hope for, is the very end of the forecast. On Saturday, August 1st, we finally see a change. The wind swings to the west-southwest at just 3 mph, going offshore. It turns glassy and clean. The swell is still small – only 1.6 ft to 2.0 ft from the northeast with a short period of 6 seconds – but the surface will be perfect. For a reef break like Bajo del Medio, clean conditions are everything. It’s a long way off, and it’s not a big swell, but if you’re desperate for a滑溜 session, that’s the window. It’s usually inconsistent here, so catching it on a clean day is a rare treat. Just know that when it’s clean, it’s going to be small.

So, the honest truth: the next two weeks are a write-off. Hang tight, check the forecasts again closer to the 1st of August, and hope that offshore wind sticks around.

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