Bajo el Medio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this forecast for Bajo el Medio is a tough one to swallow. We’re looking at a 16-day outlook that’s basically a write-off for any decent surf. The whole period is plagued by a persistent cross-onshore wind that just won't let up, and the swell is tiny and weak. We’re talking about a long stretch of poor conditions with no real standout days to get excited about.

The water temperature is sitting at 73°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but you won’t be caring about that when you’re staring at lumpy, choppy lines.

The first real chance at any surf comes on Saturday, July 18th, but don’t hold your breath. We’ve got weak swell energy (62) and a tiny 2ft swell from the NE with a short 8-second period. The wind is a moderate 16 mph from the NNE, making it cross-on and choppy. It’s poor surf and nothing to paddle for.

The whole week that follows is more of the same. Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th see the swell energy bump up just a little, hitting 110 and 120 on the Monday, but the swell height only gets to 3ft. The wind stays fresh and cross-onshore, keeping conditions messy. Tuesday through to the following weekend is a depressing run of 1ft to 3ft surf with relentless moderate to fresh cross-onshore winds. The combined energy values are all in the two-digit and low three-digit range, confirming just how weak it all is.

There’s a slight flicker of hope late in the run. By Thursday, July 30th, the swell energy jumps significantly to 429 in the afternoon, with a 5ft swell from the NE. But again, the wind is a fresh 19 mph from the N, cross-on, and the condition is described as poor. It’s just enough to get your hopes up before crushing them. The period is only 9 seconds, so it’s not a proper groundswell.

Friday, July 31st, has a similar story: a 4ft swell in the afternoon with energy at 299, but the cross-on wind is still there at 16 mph. The last few days into August are a whimper, with the swell dropping back to 1.0ft and 0.7ft.

This reef setup is inconsistent and sheltered, but the wind direction is all wrong for it. The optimum swell direction is from the NW, but the only swell we see is from the NE and NNE. Honestly, with the persistent cross-onshore winds and poor surf quality, this setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. There’s nothing here for a surfer. It’s a blank run, and for this area, it’s not unusual to have a stretch like this. Forecasts can change, but for now, leave the boards at home.

Rusty.

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