Bajo el Medio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the menu for Bajo el Medio. I’m looking at the next 16 days, and I gotta be straight with you—it’s a quiet stretch. This is a sheltered reef setup that needs the right swell, and we just ain’t gettin’ it.

We’ve got a long gap right at the start. The first few days are all cross-onshore winds—moderate to fresh breeze—with tiny swell under 2 ft and short periods. The combined wave energy is weak, reading between 10 and 64 (weak energy). The water temp is sitting at 74°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. But honestly, that’s the only interesting thing. The surf is poor, flat, and choppy.

This pattern of weak, short-period swell and cross-onshore winds just keeps rolling through the whole first week. A few days have the swell bumping up to 2 ft, but with periods of 6 to 8 seconds, it’s just lumpy, weak windswell. The wind is steady from the north or north-northeast, always cross-on, spoiling any chance of a clean line.

Around the middle of the second week, we see a tiny shift. On the 16th of August, there’s a brief moment of onshore wind, but the swell is only 1 ft, so it’s still a no-go. The combined energy is still weak (30-32). The next few days are more of the same: tiny swell, cross-on wind, and poor surf.

The best of the whole run, and I’m using that word lightly, might be the last couple of days. On the 22nd of August, we see a slight uptick to 2 ft and a period of 8 seconds, with onshore winds. The combined energy jumps to 66 (still weak). But it’s still a long way off, and the wind is not favorable. This is a reef break that rarely gets good, and it’s inconsistent. For a setup like this, you need a long-period groundswell from the northwest, and we’re not seeing that.

So, bottom line: there are no good surf options in this 16-day window. The entire stretch is a blank run. When the swell is this small and the wind is this bad, even a decent reef like Bajo el Medio can’t do a thing. It’s a quiet spell, and for this area, that’s not unusual. We’ll have to wait for a better swell direction and some lighter winds.

Rusty.

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