Bajo el Medio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Ah, mate. It’s Rusty here. Been staring at the charts for the next couple of weeks, and I gotta be straight with you: it’s a tough stretch for anyone looking to get wet around here. The long-range outlook for Bajo el Medio is a proper dry spell, and we’re looking at a bit of a famine before anything resembling a feast might show up. The first solid recommendation doesn't pop up until August 5th, and even then, it’s not pretty.

We kick things off on Wednesday the 5th. There’s a bit of swell in the water, pushing 4ft from the NE, but the wind is blowing 12 mph from the NE, straight onshore. Combine that with a short, weak 8-second period, and the ocean’s just a mess. The combined energy is a weak 263, which is nothing to get excited about. It’s what I’d call “poor surf conditions” and a zero-out-of-ten call. The whole first week is like this—onshore winds, choppy, lumpy, and generally a shoulder-shrugger. The swell drops off to under 3ft by the 7th, and the wind just keeps ruining any chance of a clean face. It’s all cross-onshore and messy. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you get skunked.

The second week, into the 12th and 13th, the swell gets smaller and the period drops to 6-7 seconds. It’s weak, disorganized, and the wind is still cross-onshore. The energy values are in the 20s and 30s, which is about as weak as it gets. This is a dead zone. From the 14th through the 17th, the swell is barely a ripple, under 3ft, and the wind is still up. The 17th and 18th see the swell just about vanish, down to 0.7ft with a 9-second period, but it’s still cross-onshore. The energy is down to single digits. It’s flat, plain and simple.

The one bright spot, if you can call it that, is the 19th of August. The swell is only 0.3ft, but the period stretches out to 11 seconds, and the wind finally drops to a light 6 mph breeze. It’s still a cross-onshore, but that’s the cleanest the water’s gonna look all fortnight. The energy is a paltry 11, so there’s nothing to ride, but at least the surface won't be blown out. It’s a sign the ocean is finally settling, but it’s too late for this window.

So, here’s the deal. Don’t waste your time for the next 16 days. Bajo el Medio is a sheltered reef that needs a good groundswell from the NW to work, and we’re getting short-period NE junk. The wind is just killing anything that tries to show up. It’s a consistent blank, which ain't normal for this spot, but it happens. The setup is looking more interesting for the kite-surfing crew than for us paddle-surfers, to be honest. Keep the board in the car, but don't get your hopes up. Forecasts can change, and it tends not to stay this poor for long. But for now, it’s a big, fat zero.

Rusty, out.

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