Bajo el Medio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: this outlook for Bajo el Medio is a tough one. We’ve got a 16-day window staring at us, and for the first week and a half, it’s pretty grim. The surf is small, the wind is ugly, and the waves are messy. You’ll be looking at a long stretch of poor conditions from the start all the way through to around the 12th of September. There’s barely a ripple worth paddling for.

Let’s just get the bad news out of the way. From Saturday the 5th through to Monday the 14th of September, it’s a flat spell with a few tiny bumps. The swell is tiny, mostly under 2 ft, and coming from the north or northeast – not the optimum direction for this sheltered reef. The wind is a constant cross-onshore, often a fresh breeze, making things choppy and lumpy. Wave energy is weak, barely cracking 100 (11 to 95 units). It’s just not worth your time.

Now, things change a little around the 13th and 14th. The wind finally swings to the west-northwest, giving us some clean, glassy conditions. But the swell is still pathetic – 0.7 ft to 1.0 ft from the northeast. It’s clean, but there’s no push. You’d be floating.

Then there’s a gap of a few days with nothing worth mentioning again until the 19th of September. That Saturday morning is where we finally get a little flicker of hope. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the west-northwest, and the swell bumps up to 2 ft from the northeast. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, around 75° on that first Saturday, but you’ll be wearing a spring suit anyway. The wave energy is still very low (13 to 32 units), and this spot is *inconsistent* at the best of times. So, it’s a gamble. But if you’re desperate for a clean, small wave session, that Saturday the 19th or Sunday the 20th of September is your only real look. The 20th of September also sees clean conditions with a cross-offshore breeze, but the swell is still tiny at 1 ft.

Honestly, the standout here isn’t the waves, it’s the clean windows. If you’re a beginner, the swell is never too big, so that’s fine. But for anyone else, this is a long, flat run. The setup is more interesting for a kite if the wind ever picks up properly, but for a paddle surfer? Not much to write home about. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d wait.

Rusty.

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