Morro Negro Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this is a tough stretch for the region. The good news? There’s always a pulse of energy out there. The bad news? The wind is just not letting up. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window, but honestly, it’s a bit of a grind for paddle surfers.

The main pattern is a constant, moderate northeast swell, running between 4 ft and 8 ft, but it’s coming in with a short period, mostly around 7 to 8 seconds. That’s a weak, short-period windswell, not the clean, long-lined groundswell we love. The real killer is the wind – it’s locked in from the north-northeast, blowing at 15 to 25 mph, and it’s cross-shore or cross-onshore the whole time. That means the ocean surface is constantly chopped up and lumpy. There are no days with clean, offshore conditions in the forecast.

The lone spot on the radar is Morro Negro, a reef and point break that’s built for experts. It’s consistent, but it’s also often crowded, so you’ll be sharing the lineup. The swell is coming from the NNE, which is a bit off its optimum direction of NNW, but it’s still getting some energy, with combined energy readings bouncing between 200 (weak) and 740 (moderate). The water temperature is about average for this time of year.

Let’s walk through it. The first few days, from August 6th through the 12th, are a grind. Swell sits around 5 ft to 7 ft, but with that nasty cross-shore wind and a period of only 7 to 8 seconds, the waves are just lumpy, messy, and poor. The combined energy is moderate, hitting 740 on the 6th morning, but it’s all wind-chop. Not worth paddling out for a proper session.

The middle of the window, from the 13th to the 16th, looks about the same. Same swell size, same short period, same frustrating cross-shore wind. The wind eases a bit on the 16th, dropping to 12 mph, which is still a moderate breeze, and the surf is still described as poor. The combined energy drops into the 400s and 500s.

The second week, from August 17th onward, the swell starts to fade. Heights drop to 4 ft to 6 ft, and the period is still short, mostly 7 seconds. The wind remains a problem, blowing at 15 to 22 mph. By the 20th and 21st, the period does lift to 9-10 seconds, which is a slight improvement for wave shape, but the wind is still cross-onshore, keeping it choppy. The combined energy drops to the low 200s and 300s, indicating weak, weak surf.

If you’re a kite surfer, this setup is actually interesting. The consistent wind and the choppy, lumpy conditions on a reef and point setup are more your game. For a paddle surfer, this is a period to sit out. The truth is, the forecast shows no standout days, no clean windows, and the wind is a constant buzzkill. That’s just how it goes sometimes in this region; a blank run like this is more normal than abnormal.

Don’t write it off completely, though. Forecasts can change. But as it stands, leave the shortboard in the van and go for a long walk on the beach instead.

Rusty.

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