La Santa - El Quemao Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. We're looking at a solid 16-day window, but there's a real dry spell to kick things off.

Looking at the whole picture, the only spot on the radar is La Santa - El Quemao, a heavy, expert-only reef break that needs a very specific swell direction to work its magic. The problem is, the wind and swell direction are locked in a battle against it for the first week and a half. The water is sitting at 74°F and is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, which is a nice thought, but it won't help the surf.

The first recommendation doesn't come until Thursday morning, July 30th, and it's a write-off. We've got a lumpy, cross-shore wind at 22 mph chopping up a 6ft swell from the NNE. It's a messy, blown-out scene. That same pattern of cross-shore and cross-onshore winds from the NNE and NE with moderate to fresh breezes hangs around for day after day. The swell sticks around 5ft to 6ft but the period is a short, weak 6 to 7 seconds, meaning the wave energy is moderate at best, with readings like 335 or 410. It's just not the wave you want.

This grim run continues all the way through to the end of the first week and into the second. The conditions are persistently poor, with the wind staying onshore or cross-shore, keeping the surface lumpy and choppy. There's a brief moment on the morning of Saturday, August 1st, where the wind goes light and offshore from the NNW, but the swell is only 4ft with a short, weak period, and the combined energy reading is a low 257. It's a tease, but not enough to get excited about, especially when the water is still a touch warmer than average.

Then, we hit a bit of a shift. On Wednesday afternoon, August 5th, the swell direction finally swings around to the WNW – that's the optimum direction for El Quemao. The swell drops to 2ft with a long period of 11 seconds, but the wind is still a fresh cross-onshore, so it's a messy, weak combo. The energy reading is a low 93, so it's hardly a pulse.

From Thursday, August 6th, through to Sunday, August 9th, we see more of the same: small, waist-high waves from the WNW with periods around 9 to 10 seconds, but the wind stubbornly stays onshore. The energy readings are still low, between 127 and 150. The best bet in this stretch would be the morning of Sunday, August 9th, with a 3ft swell from the NNW at 10 seconds, but the cross-onshore wind from the NNE at 16 mph will ruin it.

Things start to ramp up again from Monday, August 10th, as the swell goes back to the NNE and builds. By Tuesday, August 11th, we're looking at 7ft and 7ft swells with a period of 7-8 seconds and strong energy readings of 490 and 458. But the wind? Still cross-onshore at 19 mph. The size is getting up there – over 7ft is experts-only territory – but the wind is just making it a lumpy, dangerous mess. This trend continues into the final days, with a 8ft swell on Wednesday, August 12th, and a massive 8ft swell on the 13th, producing very strong energy readings of 707, 742, 771, and 789. The wind finally shifts to a cross-shore on the afternoon of the 12th, but it's still a fresh 19 mph breeze, so it'll be a bumpy, expert-level session at best.

The last day we see is Friday, August 14th, with a 7ft swell from the N at 9 seconds and a fresh 22 mph cross-onshore wind. The energy is still strong at 669, but the conditions are pure lumpy chop.

So, for the entire 16-day window, there is no standout. There is no day where the wind, swell size, and direction all align to give us a clean, rideable wave at La Santa - El Quemao. The closest we get is a tiny, weak pulse of WNW swell, but it's always wind-affected. For now, the best thing to do is wait for a proper offshore wind. This is a long stretch of poor conditions, but it won't stay this way forever.

Rusty.

Read more