La Santa - El Quemao Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook for La Santa - El Quemao is a tough one to write. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window, but the wind is the boss here, and it’s not playing nice.

The overall pattern is dominated by a persistent, strong northerly airflow. This means the forecast is a long, drawn-out run of cross-onshore winds that will keep the famous reef break at La Santa - El Quemao choppy and messy for a proper paddle session. The swell hangs around, but the quality just isn’t there.

We kick off on Friday, 24 July, with a 8ft to 7ft swell from the NNE, but it’s getting hammered by a 25 mph cross-onshore breeze. The combined energy is moderate at 562, but the wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. The wind stays strong through the weekend, with Saturday 25 July seeing 8ft swells and fresh to strong breezes, pushing the combined energy up to 870. It’s big, but it’s blown out.

The pattern softens a little heading into the new week, but it’s still a cross-onshore affair. From Monday 27 July through to the end of the month, we see swell heights dropping from 6ft down to 4ft, with combined energy falling from 435 to around 130. The wind, while easing to a moderate breeze, remains onshore, keeping the surface lumpy. The water temperature is sitting at 72°F, which is about average for the time of year.

The first week of August offers a slight shift in swell direction but no relief in the wind. On Saturday 1 August, we see a 4ft swell from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds (a groundswell), but the reward is still a moderate cross-onshore breeze. The combined energy is 326. This pattern of a moderate, onshore wind continues all the way through to Saturday 8 August, with swell heights barely reaching 5ft and combined energy peaking at 441. The fetch is just never clean enough.

For a spot that is a consistent, expert-level reef break that needs that WNW optimum swell direction, the wind is the killer.

The best on offer? Honestly, the most promising window is the very end of the run. On Friday 31 July, the afternoon session shows a 3ft swell from the NW with a period of 10 seconds, but the combined energy bumps up to 255. This is the only day where the wind is a moderate cross-shore, which is a step up from the cross-onshore we’ve been dealing with. If you are an expert who knows the reef, this might be a sneaky, uncrowded session (though crowds are “sometimes” here). But it’s a marginal call. The combo of midsummer consistency and a moderate breeze means the setup looks more interesting for kitesurfing for the vast majority of this period.

That’s the long and short of it. A frustrating run of wind for a world-class wave.

Rusty.

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