La Santa - El Quemao Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what’s cooking for La Santa - El Quemao over the next couple of weeks. I’ve got to be straight with you – this is a tough one. We’re looking at a long wait for anything that feels like proper surfing.

Right off the bat, there’s a gap of about 5 days with nothing good to offer. We’ve got a strong, persistent northerly wind that’s just trashing the place. Through Wednesday the 9th, Thursday the 10th, and Friday the 11th, the swell is there, building from around 5ft to 6ft, but the wind is ripping from the N and NNE at 18-22 mph. That’s creating a lumpy, choppy mess. The wave energy is moderate to strong (296-500), but it means nothing with that wind. This isn’t a wave you want to fight. If you’re looking for something to do, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Saturday the 12th is the same story. Swell pushes up to 7ft from the N with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy is strong at 672, but the wind is still a fresh cross-onshore 18 mph. That’s just ugly. This is expert-only territory if you’re even thinking about it – and I wouldn’t.

Finally, on Sunday the 13th of September, things start to switch. The wind swings around to a light offshore from the NNW at 3 mph in the morning. The swell drops to 5ft from the N (period 8 sec, energy 402). The guidance still calls it marginal, but that offshore wind is a huge positive. It’s the first real sign of life, but the conditions are a bit uncertain.

Monday the 14th of September is the standout of this whole stretch. The morning is glassy, with the wind dropping to 0 mph. We’ve got a small but clean swell showing up at 3ft from the NNW, but the period is a very long 13 seconds. The energy is moderate at 352, but that’s a proper groundswell. At a powerful reef like El Quemao, this long-period energy could produce some surprisingly clean, shapely waves despite the size. The glassy wind and that long-period groundswell direction (which is close to the optimum WNW) make this the best chance for a few clean ones. Keep in mind, it may break a little straight, but with no wind, it’s worth a paddle. Also, the water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

After Monday, the wave heights drop into the 2ft to 3ft range through the rest of the second week. A few pulses of long-period swell show up on the 20th and 24th of September (13 seconds, energy 350 and 320), but the wind is consistently cross-onshore or onshore, keeping the quality low. It's a quiet window. You might get the odd clean wave on the 24th with a light offshore, but I wouldn’t hold your breath. Crowds at this spot are possible when it’s good, but for most of this outlook, you’ll have it to yourself because it’s simply not working.

So, to be blunt, if you want waves, your best bet is Monday morning, the 14th of September. Get on it early for that glassy, long-period swell. Otherwise, this forecast is a write-off for the most part.

Rusty.

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