La Santa - El Quemao Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a proper look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. The focus here is on one spot and it’s a big one: La Santa - El Quemao.

Alright, straight up, the first bit of action we get is this Monday morning, the 14th. We’ve got some small but clean swell rolling in. The water’s sitting at a warm 74°F, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year – nothing out of the ordinary. The morning is your window: glassy conditions with a tiny 5 mph easterly breeze, and a little 4ft swell from the NNE. It’s short period, around 8 seconds, so it’s not a proper groundswell, but for a Monday session, the wave energy is weak (323). You could get a few fun ones.

Monday afternoon the size drops to 2ft, but the period jumps to 12 seconds from the NNW, and the wind goes light cross-offshore. That’s clean, racy stuff for the reef, but it’s small. It’s a nice little intro.

Now, from Tuesday the 15th all the way through to around the 20th, things get messy. The wind swings around to the NNE and N and kicks up, blowing cross-on or cross-shore at 9 mph to 22 mph. There’s a bit of swell, but the quality is just not there – choppy, lumpy, and onshore. The water will be mixed up. For a spot like El Quemao, which is an exposed expert reef breaking over shallow lava, you need it clean. This stretch is a write-off for a proper paddle session. Honestly, with the wind and the chop, if you’ve got a kite, it might look more interesting than a surfboard during this period.

However, there’s something brewing for the end of that week. On Sunday the 20th, the wind finally drops right back. We’re looking at a 6 mph light breeze from the NNE in the morning, and a solid 14-second period swell from the NNW at 3ft. The energy is actually moderate (497) for that size because of the long period. This is a classic groundswell window for the reef. The set waves will have proper shape and power, but the long period means longer waits between sets – makes paddling out easier. The morning is marginal/questionable due to tide, but the afternoon gets a clean onshore flow from the NNW. This is worth keeping an eye on.

The following Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd, the pattern stays similar. A small 3ft to 3ft swell from the NNW with a 12-13 second period keeps the reef alive, but the wind is mostly a light cross-onshore breeze. It’s not terrible, but it’s not glassy perfection either. The energy is moderate (264-373). If you’re keen, the mornings look the cleanest.

Then we hit a big gap. From Wednesday the 23rd through Saturday the 26th, it’s a mix of poor conditions, small swell, and cross-shore winds. Nothing really calling you out for a dawn patrol.

But here’s the long-range standout, and I’ll put my name on it as promising but less certain: the 27th of September (Sunday) through the 29th (Tuesday). The swell builds hard. Sunday afternoon we see 7ft from the NNW at 11 seconds, with very strong energy (1062). By Monday the 28th, it’s pumping – 12ft from the NNW at 13 seconds and a massive strong wave energy reading of (3687). This is big, powerful groundswell. Now the caveat: for the whole stretch, the wind is a moderate cross-onshore from the N at 12-16 mph. That’s going to put some lump on it. For an expert-only reef like El Quemao, that size with cross-on wind is going to be gnarly, unruly, and borderline dangerous. The swell is way too big for anyone but the most experienced locals. If the wind swings offshore, this would be the session of the season. As it stands, it’s a big, dangerous, windy swell. Not for the faint of heart.

So to wrap it up: your best bet for a clean, fun, manageable session is Monday morning the 14th – small but glassy. The next real highlight in terms of swell size and potential is the Sunday the 20th morning, with the long-period groundswell and light winds, even with the tide issues. The big, dangerous stuff on the 28th is for the brave and the experts only.

Stay safe out there.

- Rusty

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