La Santa - El Quemao Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a 16-day window for La Santa - El Quemao, and I’ll be honest with you – it’s a tough stretch. The swell is there, but the wind is a persistent problem. This is an expert reef break that needs clean conditions, and we’re just not getting them.

The whole period is dominated by a relentless cross to cross-onshore wind from the N and NNE. It’s blowing 15 mph to 22 mph almost every day, which is putting a solid chop and lump on the surface. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

We start off with a tiny swell on Wednesday the 15th, with a weak 2 ft from the N and a period of just 8 seconds. The combined energy is a measly 73, so there’s hardly any push. The wind is cross-shore, but it’s a moderate breeze, and the report says "poor surf conditions." It’s basically a flat, choppy mess. Not worth a paddle.

Thursday the 16th sees the swell bump up to 4 ft to 5 ft, still from the NNE, but the period drops to a terrible 6 seconds. The combined energy climbs to 165-195, which is moderate, but that short period means the waves are weak and won’t hold up. The wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy. Still poor.

From Friday the 17th through to Tuesday the 22nd, the swell builds from 6 ft up to 7 ft, but the wind switches to a strong cross-on shore, freshening to 19-22 mph. The period stays at 7 seconds, so it’s still a messy, windblown local windswell. The combined energy gets into the moderate range (224 to 537), but the conditions are consistently described as "poor surf conditions." This is a reef that needs a clean offshore wind; with this cross-on blast, it’s going to be a washing machine. For a beginner, anything over 5 ft is too big, and with the wind, it’s a nightmare. For experts, the 7 ft size is manageable, but the chop makes it ugly.

Now, the 23rd of July is the most interesting day, but it’s still compromised. The morning shows an 8 ft swell from the NNE with an 8-second period, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 1580 – that’s real power. But the wind is a fresh cross-on shore at 19 mph. That’s a heavy, powerful wave for experts only, but the wind is ruining the face. The afternoon drops to 8 ft and 724 energy, still cross-on. It’s the biggest swell of the window, but it’s not clean.

The rest of the run from the 24th to the 30th of July stays in the 4 ft to 8 ft range, with combined energy between 226 and 828. The wind never lets up, staying cross-on or cross-shore, between 15 and 25 mph. The period stretches to 8 seconds for a few days, which is slightly better, but the wind is relentless. The 29th sees the wind pick up to 25 mph, which is a "strong breeze" and "messy" – stay out of the water.

Honestly, there is no standout day in this 16-day window. The best on offer would be the biggest swell days around the 23rd, but with persistent cross-on wind, the quality is shot. The combination of strong onshore winds and a short-period swell never gives this reef a chance to show its true form. It’s a frustrating outlook for a spot that can be world-class. Keep an eye on the forecast, but right now, I’d give it a miss.

Rusty.

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