La Santa - El Quemao Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking over the next couple of weeks.

First off, the water at La Santa - El Quemao is sitting at 76°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a nice little bonus.

Now, I gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a real test of patience. We're looking at a solid stretch of poor conditions right from the get-go. Friday the 28th kicks off with a 7ft northerly swell, but that nasty 35 km/h cross-breeze and a combined energy of 515 (moderate energy) has it chopped up and lumpy. It’s not rideable. Saturday and Sunday look much the same – a 6ft to 6ft swell, but that relentless NNE wind keeps it messy. The combined energy hangs around 533 to 643, which is moderate, but it’s all for nothing with that wind.

This pattern of poor surf rolls on. Monday the 31st through Thursday the 3rd of September stays poor, with swell bumping up to 8ft on Wednesday morning (combined energy 895 – strong) but it’s still cross-onshore and messy. That’s expert-only territory in terms of size, but the quality is just not there.

We finally get a glimmer of hope on Friday the 4th of September. The wind swings offshore from the NNW, light at 10 km/h. Swell drops to 5ft from the north, period 8 seconds. Combined energy is 234 (weak). It’s still noted as poor surf, but that offshore wind is a major positive, so it could clean up. This is the first real window.

The weekend of the 5th and 6th of September keeps that small-scale vibe with 4ft to 4ft north swell, light offshore winds in the mornings (around 15 km/h from NNW). Combined energy is weak, between 134 and 189. It’s not going to bowl you over, but it’s a chance for a clean, fun little wave if you’re keen.

Then there’s a bit of a wait. Monday the 7th of September has a weird combo – a 5ft NNE windswell in the morning, then a 2ft swell in the afternoon but with a 13-second period (groundswell). Combined energy jumps to 379? That long-period swell will be tricky for a beach break like this, but at El Quemao reef, that longer period could actually make for some better-shaped, more powerful lines, despite the small size.

The standout window looks like the morning of the 8th of September (Tuesday). It’s a marginal call, but we have a 6ft north-northeast swell with a gentle cross-shore breeze. Combined energy is 540 (moderate). The wind is light enough that it could offer some clean-ish corners. It’s not world-class, but given the rest of the run, it’s the best bet.

Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th of September see the swell push back up to 7ft with light cross-onshore winds. Combined energy gets strong at 753 on the Wednesday morning. It’s still marginal, but for an expert crowd, that could be a powerful, punchy session if the wind holds light.

By Friday the 12th of September, we get a 5ft swell from the north with a 12-second period and combined energy of 949 – that’s strong to very strong wave energy. But the cross-onshore wind is back up to 30 km/h, so it’s going to be lumpy and hard work.

Overall, the only real standouts here are the mornings of the 4th and 5th of September for smaller, cleaner waves with offshore wind, and the morning of the 8th of September for a bit more size and power with light wind. If you’re an expert, the morning of the 9th of September could offer some punchy, though slightly bumpy, 7ft surf.

Anything beyond that is a long-range guess, and the wind looks like it spoils the party. If you are an expert with a big board and don’t mind lumpy conditions, there’s some solid swell around the 2nd of September, but it’s more of a challenge than a pleasure.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on that wind.

Rusty.

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