La Santa - El Quemao Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me break this down for you. Right now, we're in a bit of a flat spell, and honestly, it doesn't look good for a solid stretch. This forecast covers the next 16 days, but there's a long gap of poor conditions before anything even gets close to worth paddling out for. The first few days, from Wednesday the 8th through to around the 15th of July, are all "poor surf conditions" with tiny, weak swell and messy cross-onshore winds. You're looking at swell heights barely cracking 3 ft, with periods as short as 5-6 seconds, and combined energy readings are weak—under 100 (30-85) for most of that first week. That's just not gonna give you any shape or power. The winds are a constant problem, never getting that clean offshore we all want.

The real event starts to build from the 16th of July, but even then, it's not a simple yes. The swell starts to push up, but the wind stays cross or cross-on. By the morning of Thursday the 16th, we see swell hitting 6 ft from the NNE with a 7-second period and a combined energy of 348—that's moderate energy now. But the wind is a strong cross-shore, making it messy. This trend continues and actually gets bigger through the 18th, 19th, and into the next week. The standouts, if you can call them that, are around the 21st and 22nd of July. You've got swell hitting 8 ft to 10 ft from the NNE, with periods stretching to 9 seconds and combined energy readings through the roof: between 991 and 1151. That's strong to very strong wave energy. But here's the kicker—the wind never gets right. It's a constant fresh to strong breeze from the NNE, always cross-on or cross-shore, which is going to turn that power into a lumpy, choppy mess. This break, El Quemao, is a reef setup that's exposed to WNW swell, and we're getting NNE swell instead—that's a mismatch. The optimum swell direction is WNW, so this NNE energy is not what this spot is built for. It's going to be big, powerful, and ugly. At over 8 ft, this is strictly for experts only, and with the wind all wrong, it's going to be a battle.

Honestly, there's nothing here I can recommend as a genuine good session. The whole 16-day window is plagued by poor surf quality. The water temperature is sitting around 72°F, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there. But with the constant onshore flow and the swell direction not matching the break's optimum, you'd be better off looking for a different coast or a different activity. If you're a kite surfer, that strong cross-shore wind on the 16th, 18th, and 19th might be your jam, but for a paddle surfer, it's a no-go.

So, to sum it up: a long stretch of flatness, then a big but messy swell that's too big for most and blown out by the wind. Keep your board in the car and wait for the next proper system.

Rusty.

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