La Santa - El Quemao Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m Rusty, and let’s be real about La Santa - El Quemao for the next 16 days. It’s a bummer, honestly. This is a world-class reef, a proper expert-only slab, and it’s consistent, which usually gets the blood pumping. But the wind is just blowing it all to hell.

We start on Monday, 20 July, and the swell is there, but it’s coming from the NNE, not the ideal WNW direction. The wind is a strong cross-onshore at 25 mph, and the surf is called “poor” and “messy” right from the get-go. The wave energy is moderate, around 623, but it’s short-period windswell at 8 seconds, so the shape is gonna be junk.

The swell builds. By Saturday, 25 July, we’re looking at 10 ft waves with energy jumping into the strong range (1147). But that’s with a 28 mph cross-onshore wind – it’s going to be a mess. Over 8 ft, this is only for experts, and the wind is just going to shred any chance of a good wave. The period stays short, between 7 and 9 seconds, so it’s still windswell, not the clean groundswell this reef needs.

There’s a tiny, tiny window on Tuesday, 28 July, when the wind eases to a “moderate breeze” at 12 mph. The swell drops to 8 ft, and the energy is still strong (1015), but it’s still cross-onshore and choppy. The score is a “1” – marginal. It’s still not the clean, glassy conditions you need for a wave this heavy.

The rest of the run into the first week of August is more of the same. The swell dips to about 5 ft by Saturday, 1 August, but the wind is still on it. Then it pumps back up to 10 ft on Monday, 3 August, with energy over 1600, but the wind is back up to 22 mph. It’s a pattern of “poor surf conditions” until the end.

So, what’s the best of a bad bunch? Honestly, there isn’t a single day I’d call a winner. The best you can hope for is that Tuesday, 28 July, might offer a slightly less messy window. But it’s a long shot. The wave heights are big, the energy is there, but the wind is just wrong. For a wave this critical, with a reef that shallow and a lip that throws, you need that offshore SE breeze to clean it up. We’re not getting it.

If you’re a kite surfer, this setup might actually look pretty interesting with all that wind and swell. For paddle surfing, it’s a frustrating watch. The consistency of the break means it won’t stay poor forever, but for this 16-day look, it’s a write-off.

Rusty.

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