La Santa - El Quemao Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for this stretch of coast for days. We’ve got one single break, La Santa - El Quemao, and it’s an expert-only reef slab that needs a very specific key to unlock it. The problem is, for the next two weeks, the key is nowhere to be found.

To be blunt, the first week-plus is a total write-off. From Tuesday the 28th of July right through to the 12th of August, the wind is a constant, brutal cross-onshore or cross-shore, blowing anywhere from 12 mph to 25 mph. The swell is coming from the North and North-Northeast, but El Quemao needs a clean West-Northwest groundswell to work its magic. What we’re getting is a messy, short-period, lumpy ocean with a combined energy in the moderate range of 219 to 355. It’s just a choppy, blown-out mess. There’s no point even looking at it for a paddle. That setup is more interesting for a kite surfer than a surfer with a pulled-in rail.

Now, there is a glimmer of something in the distance, but it’s a long way off. The charts are hinting at a pulse of energy around the 5th and 6th of August. We’re looking at swell heights pushing up to 10 ft, with a period creeping up to 9 seconds, and the combined energy starts to get serious, hitting 847 and then 1360. That’s four-digit wave energy, which means there’s some serious power behind it. But the wind is still a cross-shore mess, and the direction is still off. The file says ‘marginal surf forecast’ for the 6th of August, which is the closest we get to a ‘maybe’ in this whole forecast. A 10 ft, lumpy, cross-shore wave at El Quemao is a big, dangerous, ugly wall of water. Only absolute experts with a death wish would even paddle out. It’s not a standout, it’s a warning. The water is a warm 73°F, which is about average for the time of year.

The rest of the run into the second week is more of the same – strong breezes, onshore winds, and a lot of churning white water. The 10th of August has the wind cranking to 25 mph, which is ‘strong cross-onshore and messy’. That’s the worst kind of dirt.

So, there’s your outlook. No good windows. If you’re a local, you know this spot needs a clean, long-period W/NW swell and a breath of offshore wind to become the world-class wave it is. We’re not getting that. The forecasts can change, but right now, don’t hold your breath. The second week stuff is promising but less certain. It’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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