La Santa - El Quemao Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about this stretch. First off, I’ve got to be straight with you: the next 16 days ain’t looking kind for paddle surfing at La Santa - El Quemao. The swell direction is mostly from the north, which is cross to off for this spot, and the wind is either cross or cross-on the whole time. That’s a recipe for chop and mess, not the clean barrels we all dream about.

Right from Sunday the 16th, we’ve got a NNE wind at 16 mph muscling in, with a weak 4ft swell at 7 seconds. The energy is weak, just 190, and it’s bumpy. Sunday afternoon is more of the same, and honestly, there’s nothing here to get excited about. This pattern holds through the first week. Monday through Thursday of next week, the swell stays small—between 3ft and 4ft—with short periods of 8-9 seconds. The wind never gets properly offshore; it’s always cross-on or cross, and everything is choppy or lumpy. The wave energy stays weak to moderate, mostly under 270. It’s a whole lot of nothing, and I’d be looking at other things to do if I were you.

Then we roll into the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd. The swell bumps up a bit, 5ft to 6ft, but it’s short-period stuff, 7-8 seconds, and the wind is still cranking cross-on at 19 mph. That’s not a surf forecast—that’s a washing machine. The energy starts to build, hitting 333-336, but it’s all messy. You’ll see some lumps out there, but it’s not going to be any fun.

The second week, from the 24th onward, sees the wind pick up even more. We’re talking 22 to 25 mph cross-shore and cross-on winds. The swell starts to push up a little, especially around the 26th and 27th, when we finally see some bigger numbers—7ft to 8ft—but again, with a period of only 7-8 seconds, it’s going to be a crumbly, blown-out mess. The energy gets strong, hitting 727 on the Thursday morning, but it’s all for nothing because the wind is just ruining any chance of a clean face. For a reef like this, with that kind of wind and short-period swell, it’s going to be a foam party, not a surf session.

There is one little window that catches my eye, and it’s not until Monday the 31st—two weeks out. The wind finally swings around to NNE, but it’s still cross, not offshore. The swell is 4ft, but the energy is a touch more moderate at 293. Still, with the wind cross-shore and the period at 8 seconds, it’s not going to be anything to write home about. But after two weeks of nothing, even a glimmer of hope feels like something.

Honestly, mate, if you’re keen to get wet, this whole stretch is a write-off for surfing. The conditions are just too poor—constant onshore/cross-shore winds and short, weak swell. If you have a kite, this might actually look more interesting than surfing, especially around the 26th and 27th when the wind and swell are up. But for a board and a paddle, it’s a blank run. Sometimes the ocean just says no. Forecasts can change, and this spot is consistent, so it won’t be flat forever, but for this 16-day window, I’d be finding other things to do.

Rusty.

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