La Santa - El Quemao Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s have a look at what’s on offer for La Santa – El Quemao. Straight up, I’ll be honest with you – this 16-day window is a tough one. There’s no good surf to get excited about. The conditions are persistently poor, and that’s rare for a spot that’s usually consistent. The swell direction is coming from the NNE most of the time, which is well off the optimum WNW that this reef loves. And the wind – it’s almost always a cross-on, mostly from the NNE, at 19 to 28 mph, so it’s lumpy, messy, and just not worth paddling out for. The water temperature sits at 73°, a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s little comfort when the waves are junk.

For the first week, from Saturday 18 July through to Friday 25 July, the swell height bounces between 6 ft and 8 ft, but with a short period of 7 to 8 seconds and those cross-on winds, the combined energy values range from 294 to 726 – moderate energy, but poor surf quality. The wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions”. Even the more experienced surfers would struggle to find a clean section.

Then on Sunday 26 July and Monday 27 July, the swell builds to 10 ft with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1375 on the Sunday morning – that’s strong energy. But the wind switches to a cross-shore, still fresh, and the comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions”. For a reef break like this, 10 ft is already in the expert-only zone, but with that cross-shore chop, it’s not going to be the classic El Quemao we dream of. It’s a “maybe” but not a standout.

After that, from Tuesday 28 July onwards, the wind picks up again, back to strong cross-on, and the swell drops off. By the end of the window, we’re down to 5 ft on 2 August with strong breeze and messy conditions. There’s no point in sugar-coating it – this is a blank run. The forecast confidence is high for the near term, and it’s just not looking good. For a break that’s known for its consistency, this is a rare dry spell. But that’s the ocean – sometimes it just doesn’t line up. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because things can change, but for now, I’d say leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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