Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is a tough one to call, but I’ll break it down for you. The whole 16-day stretch is looking pretty flat and messy for our break, Reef, which is a reef setup that needs a good SW swell to really work. The data shows we’re stuck with a NW to WNW wind and swell pattern, which is not what this spot wants. The good news is, the water temperature is sitting at 70°F and it’s a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least a paddle won’t be a shock to the system.

We kick off July 25th, Saturday, and the news isn’t good. There’s a NW swell of 6ft, but the period is a short 7 seconds, and we’ve got a cross-on NNW wind at 16 mph. The combined energy is moderate (306), but it’s all for nothing. The wave comment is ‘poor surf conditions’ and the score is a zero. This is a write-off. The wind stays fresh and cross-onshore through the weekend, and the swell just drops away. By Sunday morning, the 26th, we’re down to 1.0ft with a fresh cross breeze. It’s junk.

The first half of the following week (July 27th to 30th) is a total dead zone. Swell is tiny, 0.7ft to 1ft, with all the energy readings in the low double digits (10 to 59). The wind is a mess, mostly cross or cross-on. Even Monday morning, the 27th, has a clean cross-off breeze, but with only 1.0ft of swell, it’s not even worth a glance. The entire period from July 25th to August 8th is a brutal gap of no-go surf. We’re looking at a solid 15 days of nothing.

There is a little flicker of hope right at the end. On August 9th, Sunday, a bump of swell shows up. Sunday morning sees a WNW swell of 4ft with a period of 9 seconds, pushing the combined energy to 274 (moderate). The wind is a cross-on from the NNW at 16 mph, which is still rough, but it’s the biggest swell in the whole window. The afternoon gets even bigger, with a NW swell of 6ft and an 8-second period, kicking the energy to 449 (strong). But the wind is still a moderate cross-on from the NW at 16 mph. The wave comment is still ‘poor surf conditions’ and the score is zero. The swell is too big for the short period, and the wind is going to chop it all up. It’s a shame, because the height is there, but it’s not the right direction for this reef, and the wind is going to ruin it.

This is a tough stretch. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing if the wind holds. Honestly, if you’re desperate, the August 9th afternoon won’t be epic, but it’s the only pulse of energy in the whole 16 days. The best advice is to wait for the next forecast. It tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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