Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get real about this reef. I’ve been staring at the charts and, honestly, it’s a tough stretch ahead. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the first chunk of it is a total write-off for a proper paddle. The water’s sitting at 65°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good suit.

The first recommendation doesn’t pop up until the start of the second week. From now until the 20th of July, it’s just a barrage of small, wind-affected slop. The swell is tiny, barely cracking 3ft on the best days, and the wind is almost always cross-onshore, chopping it all up. The combined energy readings are weak, mostly in the 30s and 50s (56-81 range), just not enough push to do anything with.

Then, on the 20th of July, Monday, we see a slight lift. The swell picks up a bit to 4ft from the NNW, but it’s a short period of 6 seconds, and the wind is still on it. The energy number climbs to 103 (moderate), but the conditions are still calling it “poor.”

The real story, the only thing that gets my heart beating a little, is way out there. On the 26th of July, Sunday morning, the combined energy jumps to 213 (strong), with a 3ft NW swell at 8 seconds. That’s a taste of what’s coming. But the real standout is the 27th of July, Monday. The swell holds at 5ft from the NW, and the period stretches out to 11 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell with some grunt. The combined energy hits 872 (very strong). The Reef is an exposed spot and loves a solid SW swell, but this NW pulse will still wrap in and offer some size. The problem, and it’s a big one, is the wind. 19 mph cross-onshore on Monday morning, ramping up to 25 mph in the afternoon. It’s going to be a lumpy, messy, and strong wind session. The 28th and 29th of July are similar: 4ft to 5ft NW swell hanging around, but with 19-25 mph cross-shore winds. The energy readings are still strong (400-890 range), but it’s going to be a battle. This is expert territory only with those winds and that size.

Because of the persistent onshore wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for the vast majority of the forecast. The Reef is a fairly consistent break, but with these conditions, it’s just not going to cooperate for a clean, fun session. The crowd profile at this break is “often” busy, so if you do go out on the 27th, expect a crowd of people who are just as desperate as you are.

Honestly, the only flicker of hope is the 27th of July, but with those winds, it’s a promise that’s likely to be broken.

Rusty.

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