Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about this run of surf. Honestly, mate, it’s a flat spell with a whole lot of cross-shore chop and not much to get excited about. We’ve got a 16-day window but the first decent-looking kick doesn’t show up until late in the piece. The break is Reef, a fairly consistent advanced reef setup that’s exposed to the SW swell – exactly what we’re not getting for most of this period.

The first few days are basically a write-off. From Thursday 6th August right through to the middle of the month, we’re looking at tiny, weak swell with that persistent NNW wind blowing cross or cross-onshore. The swell height is barely hovering around 1ft to 2ft, with short periods of 7 to 10 seconds. The combined energy is weak, barely cracking 100 (it’s sitting at 79, 52, 46, 45 – all under 100). It’s just poor, lumpy, choppy conditions. Not worth paddling out for.

There’s a bit of a pulse around Wednesday 12th August where the swell nudges up to 3ft from the west with a period of 9 seconds, and the energy climbs to 179 – still moderate, not strong. But the wind is still cross or cross-on, and the surf quality is rated poor. It’s not a stand-out, just a slight uptick in a flat run.

Things get a little more interesting around Monday 17th August. The swell builds to 4ft from the NW, period 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 259 – now we’re talking moderate to strong energy. But the wind is still a fresh cross-shore at 30 km/h, so it’s lumpy. Not the clean, glassy conditions you want for a reef.

Now, the real standout – and I mean the only one worth marking on the calendar – is Tuesday 18th August. The morning shows a solid 8ft swell from the NW with an 8-second period. The combined energy is a strong 819 – that’s proper power. For a reef break, that’s juicy. But here’s the catch: 8ft is expert territory, not for the faint-hearted. The wind is still a moderate cross-shore from the N at 25 km/h, so it won’t be glassy, but it’ll be clean enough for a reef. The swell direction is NW, which is not the optimum SW for this spot, but with that much energy, it’ll still wrap in. That’s your best wave of the outlook, but it’s a one-morning hit – by the afternoon, it drops to 0.3ft with a long period SW groundswell that barely registers 8 energy. So if you’re an expert, circle Tuesday morning.

After that, the rest of the window fades back into tiny, weak little pulses from the SSW with long 13-14 second periods, but the energy is pathetic – 20 to 34. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

So, the big picture: a long, flat stretch with only one genuinely powerful day around 18th August. The rest is just small, windy, choppy slop. If you’re kiting, the fresh cross-shore days might be fun, but for paddle surfing, it’s a lean run.

Rusty.

Read more