Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s brewing for this stretch. It’s a story of waiting it out. We start with a heap of flat, crappy, or just messy conditions before a real pulse of energy finally rocks up at the very end of the run.

The only break we’re looking at is Reef. It’s an exposed reef setup that needs a solid, clean swell from the southwest to get going. Right now, we’re in a rough patch. The water temp is 68°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so you’ll want the thicker suit.

Looking at the immediate days, it’s bleak. Through the 20th, 21st, and 22nd, we’ve got tiny, weak dribble and junky cross-shore winds. Swell heights barely break 1ft to 2ft if we’re lucky, and the combined energy is pitiful, a mere 87 or less. Not worth getting wet for.

We do see a quick pulse on the morning of Sunday the 23rd. Swell bumps up to 6ft from the west with a solid 11-second period. The combined energy jumps to 864, a moderate kick, and the winds go clean, cross-offshore. That’s our first and only real window in this first week. It’s a marginal call with the tide, but it’s the best we’ve seen by a mile.

After that, it all falls apart again. Through the 24th, 25th, 26th, and 27th, it’s back to onshore winds, lumpy conditions, and weak, choppy surf. The energy drops back into triple, then double digits. A few days with height around 6ft to 6ft, but the winds are all wrong, making it a total mess.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Hold out for Friday the 28th of August. That morning, we’re looking at a serious event. A 10ft swell from the northwest with a 12-second period, pumping a massive 2259 combined energy into the reef. The winds are offshore, and the tide looks favorable. But—and this is a big but—this swell is too big for this break. That kind of power and height is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s pushing limits. The afternoon drops to 8ft with similar energy (1715), still massive, but the wind swings cross-shore and gets fresh, making it lumpy. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

From Saturday the 29th through to the end of the run into early September, the plug gets pulled. Swell disappears back to zero, then dribbles in with weak 4ft or less, poor winds, and no energy. It’s a total flat spell for over a week.

The Bottom Line: There is one true standout, and it’s the morning of Sunday the 23rd. That 6ft west swell with clean cross-offshore winds is your best bet for a manageable, clean session. The Friday the 28th pulse is huge, but too big for a safe or enjoyable paddle. If you are a very experienced, confident charger, you might look at the 28th, but be warned. For the rest of us, that Sunday the 23rd morning is the only real window of quality on offer.

Rusty.

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