Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this is a tough stretch for the Reef. I’ve looked at the next 16 days and honestly, there’s barely a window worth paddling out for. The whole forecast is a mess of poor surf conditions, and the only break in the mix is the Reef itself, an advanced, fairly consistent reef setup that’s exposed to the swell. But even it can’t do much with what’s coming.

We start off on Wednesday, 5th August, with a weak 3ft WNW swell at 8 seconds – that’s short-period, weak energy (combined energy of all swells directed here is 105, so moderate at best). The wind is already a problem, coming from the north at 12 mph, cross-shore, making for a lumpy cross-chop. It’s just messy. Thursday and Friday are even worse, with the swell dropping to 2ft and 1ft, and winds staying fresh and cross-shore, constantly chopping it up. The combined energy plummets into the double digits – 61 on Thursday, 31 on Friday. That’s weak.

The weekend doesn’t offer any relief. Saturday 8th August has a tiny 1ft WNW swell, with a gentle breeze, but the wind shifts a bit cross-onshore in the afternoon, making it choppy. Sunday and Monday see a slight bump in swell height to 2ft, but the period is short (7 seconds) and the wind is still moderate to fresh cross-shore or cross-onshore. The combined energy on Monday morning hits 102, but it’s still poor surf conditions with that chop.

There’s a glimmer on Tuesday 11th August morning with a 3ft NW swell, but the period is a miserable 6 seconds – that’s windswell, no power, no shape. The combined energy is 97, but it’s all short-period junk. The wind is a gentle cross-shore, so it’s the cleanest it’ll be all week, but the waves will be weak and unorganized. Not worth getting excited about.

Wednesday 12th and Thursday 13th August see the swell build a bit, with a 3ft to 3ft WNW swell, and the period improves to 9 seconds. The combined energy gets into the moderate range (110 on Wednesday afternoon, 151 on Thursday morning, 174 on Thursday afternoon). But the wind is still a problem – fresh cross-shore on Thursday afternoon at 19 mph, lumping it up. The swell direction is WNW, but the optimum for the Reef is SW, so it’s not even hitting the break right. No standouts here.

Then we hit a dead zone. From Friday 14th August through to Wednesday 20th August, there’s virtually no surf. The swell height shows as a dash or 0.3ft, and the combined energy is in the single digits. The wind is howling from the north at 16-25 mph, cross-shore, making it a complete write-off for surfing. The only thing worth noting is that on Thursday 20th August morning, the wind finally swings to the southeast at 6 mph, cross-offshore, and the forecast shows “clean.” But the swell is still just 0.3ft from the SW at 13 seconds – it’s a ghost wave. You’d be waiting all day for a ripple.

So, there’s no standout session in this 16-day window. The Reef is a good break, but it needs a proper SW swell with clean winds, and we’re getting neither. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual. If you’re a kite surfer, you might find some interest in that strong north wind, but for paddle surfing, this is a blank run. Don’t let it get you down – it tends not to stay this poor for long, and forecasts can change. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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