Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. There’s not much to get excited about right now. The forecast shows a proper drought of decent surf, so don’t be in a rush to grab your board until the back half of the outlook.

We’re looking at Reef, an advanced reef break that picks up swell well, but the whole first week and a bit is a write-off. Up until the 11th of September, it’s all poor surf. We’ve got a persistent northerly wind blowing cross-shore, and the swell is often tiny or completely messy. That long stretch from the 1st to the 4th of September sees swell barely a whisper at 0.7 ft, with period up to 16 seconds, so there’s plenty of energy in the water, but it’s just too small to ride. The combined energy is very low, only about 23 to 24 (23 to 28) across those days. Even the moderate-sized swells around 4 ft to 5 ft in late August are wrecked by the wind, so no go there.

The first hint of something on Friday the 4th of September is a morning with 3 ft NW swell, 14-second period and a gentle cross-shore breeze – clean enough, but the energy is moderate (330) and it’s only a “marginal” call. Not a standout, just a reminder that things might turn. The water temp is 68°, which is about average for this time of year – no real anomaly to worry about.

Now, for the one true standout: Friday the 11th of September, morning session. This is the one. We’ve got a solid 5 ft swell coming out of the WNW, with a very long 15-second period. The combined energy is pumping at a strong 839, which tells you there’s proper power in the water. The wind is light out of the NW at 6 mph, but it’s cross-onshore, which keeps it from being glassy. However, that long period groundswell will wrap nicely into this reef, giving you real punchy, well-shaped waves. It’s not a beginner wave at 5 ft – it’s got some heft – and with that super long period, it'll break a bit deeper, so it’s a point-and-reef paradise. Crowds are likely here, but for a quality wave like this, it’s worth it. This is the morning to circle on your calendar.

Saturday the 12th of September sees the swell drop a little to 4 ft, same direction, but the wind picks up and it gets lumpy. Still surfable, but not the gem of the 11th.

So overall, we’ve got a big dry spell from now until the 4th, then some marginal options, and then that one golden window on the 11th of September morning. After that, the 13th is still small and onshore, so don’t hold your breath for the following days. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more