Coxos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a real mixed bag of a forecast for Coxos over the next couple of weeks, so let’s break it down day by day. It’s going to be a story of waiting for the right windows between the wind and the swell.

Overall Pattern

The next week and a half are going to be frustrating. There’s swell on the way, but the wind is going to be working against us for most of it. We've got a series of pulses, but they're mostly arriving with onshore or cross-onshore winds, which is gonna chop things up and make it a mess. It's not until the upcoming weekend that things clean up and we get a real look at this place. Don’t get too excited about the big numbers late in the forecast; the wind is going to be howling.

The Wait

We start off on Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th with some building swell, but it’s mostly coming in from the NNW with moderate to fresh cross-onshore winds. Surf heights are around 3ft to 8ft, with wave energy building from moderate (188) to strong (721), but the surface is going to be lumpy and choppy. It’s going to be pretty ordinary. Not the time to be heading out unless you're keen for a fight.

The Window

Now, Sunday the 16th is where things start to get interesting. We’ve got a clean-up in the morning. The wind is set to go glassy and light from the E at 3 mph, with surf still a solid 7ft from the NNW (671 energy). This is the standout session of the first week. The break at Coxos (Costa da Caparica) is exposed to this NW/NNW swell, and this is when it’s going to be at its best. The wave comment says "expect very good surf conditions," and I'd have to agree.

Monday the 17th morning will also be good, with clean, glassy conditions and 6ft surf (412 energy). The wind goes light from the SSW, and that should clean up the surface nicely. Tuesday the 18th morning is also worth a look, with a clean cross-off breeze and 5ft waves. The period is a short 8 seconds, but the clean conditions will make it more fun. Remember, it's a reef break, so it can handle the shorter period, but the long-period stuff will be better.

The Fade

The swell starts to fade from Wednesday the 19th onwards, dropping to under 3ft. The energy drops off to weak levels (below 100), and there just won't be enough push to make it worthwhile. The wind plays around, but with such small waves, it’s not going to be a priority.

The Next Pulse & The Big Stuff

There's another pulse of swell due on Friday the 21st, but it arrives with a strong NNW wind at 22 mph, creating fresh cross-onshore and lumpy conditions. That's a pass. The same story continues through the 24th and into the 25th. More swell, more onshore wind, more chop. Saturday the 22nd will be similar, with moderate cross-onshore winds.

The real wildcard is on the 28th and 29th. This is when we see the big groundswell arrive, with a period reaching 14 seconds, and wave heights predicted at 10ft to 12ft. The energy numbers are off the charts - strong to very strong at 2839 and 4324. However, the wind forecast is for a strong cross-onshore from the N, making it a messy, powerful beast. This is not going to be a clean day. This swell is big enough that it's only for experts anyway, and with that wind, it'll be a survival mission. This looks more interesting for the kite surfers than the paddle surfers, to be honest.

So, the story is: grab the clean windows on Sunday morning, Monday morning, and Tuesday morning of next week. Everything else is a trade-off. The long-range stuff on the 28th and 29th is promising in size, but at this point, it's just a few days away, and I'd be more confident in the conditions for Sunday.

The water temp is sitting at 69°, right around where it should be for this time of year, so there’s no drama there.

This is a place that needs the wind to play ball, and for the most part, it's not going to. But when it does, it's worth it.

Rusty, out.

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