Coxos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gonna be straight with you – this outlook for Coxos is a tough one to write. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the first two weeks are a real battle against the wind. This is a reef break that needs the right conditions, and it’s not getting them for a while.

The core problem is persistent cross-onshore winds. From August 5th right through to the 18th, the wind is coming from the N or NNW, mostly at 12 to 19 mph, sometimes stronger. That’s a cross-on wind here, and it’s trashing the surface. Even when there’s some size in the water, it’s going to be choppy, lumpy, and messy. The water temp is sitting right around 68°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year.

The first proper event to look at is August 14th. The swell starts to build up and by Friday the 14th morning, we’re looking at a 6ft swell from the NNW with moderate wave energy (715). That combo swell energy is getting into moderate territory. The problem? The wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-on, so it’s going to be a lumpy, blown-out mess. The size increases into the afternoon, with a 8ft swell (888 energy) and then Saturday the 15th hits 8ft (980 energy). That’s expert-level size, but with the same dirty cross-on wind. It’s not surfable for the average punter.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The one standout window is the morning of Wednesday, August 19th. For a brief moment, the wind drops to zero – dead calm, glassy conditions. We’ve got a 4ft swell from the NNW, which is a decent size, but the period is a short 7 seconds. That short period means it’s not going to have the power of a groundswell, but the glassy conditions are a massive positive. It’s the only time in the whole run where the conditions are described as “expect good surf conditions”. This is your best bet. The swell will be a bit weak and short-period, but on a glassy morning at Coxos, you can still get some fun ones. After that morning, the wind immediately swings back to a strong cross-on and the window closes.

The rest of the 19th and into the 20th is back to the same story – big, messy swell with strong winds. There’s a gap of several days in the middle there with no real recommendations, just wind and chop.

So, to be clear: the best, and really the only, standout is the morning of Wednesday, August 19th. Get out there early for the glass. The rest of the 16 days is a write-off unless you’re a fan of washing machines.

Rusty.

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