Coxos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gday, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the data and talk about what’s actually gonna be worth your time over the next couple of weeks. For the most part, this is a story about a solid, exposed reef break that’s going to get a whole lot of swell, but the wind is going to be the main villain in this piece. We’re looking at a frustrating run where the ocean’s got plenty of push, but the surface is going to be a mess for most of it.

The first real window we get is tomorrow morning, the 19th of August. It’s not big, with waves around `3 ft` from the NNW, but the wind is light and cross-offshore, which is a huge deal. The water’s running about average for this time of year. It’s going to be clean, and that’s a rare commodity right now. It’s the best of the early days, but it’s not the standout.

The real standout is way down the line, on the last day of the run, Thursday the 3rd of September. Between now and then, it’s a grim picture. From the 20th through the 25th, we see a mix of onshore winds and growing but messy swell. The energy is moderate, with values in the high hundreds breaking the thousand mark, but the wind is straight onshore or cross-onshore, and it’s just going to be lumpy and poor. There’s a stretch from the 21st to the 23rd where the swell is solidly in the `6 ft` to `8 ft` range, but it’s blown out. This setup is more interesting for the kite crew than for paddle surfing, to be honest.

The 26th and 27th, the swell stays around `5 ft`, but the wind remains messy, and the 27th afternoon pumps up with a strong `1280` combined energy and a long-period swell down from the NW at `11` seconds. The wind is cross-onshore and fresh, so it’s still no good.

Then, we have the big swell event. The 31st of August and the 1st of September see the energy spike hard, with values up to `2312`. The swell heights are up there—`7 ft` on the 31st, and `10 ft` by Tuesday afternoon. This is serious, expert-only territory, with a long-period groundswell that will be breaking straight and mean. The wind is fresh and cross-onshore the whole time, so it’s a total washout. Not a wave you want to be on.

Now, for the one to really circle. By the 2nd of September, the swell backs off a bit to `6 ft`, and the wind starts to ease. The morning is still cross-onshore, but the energy is dropping. But then comes Thursday the 3rd of September. We’ve got a `6 ft` swell from the NNW, which is right in the optimum window for Coxos. The wind is a light cross-on from the west at `5 km/h`, which is almost nothing, and the period is a clean `9` seconds. The energy is at `440` – moderate – but it’s the *quality* that counts. This is the cleanest, most organized swell we’ll have seen all window. It’s going to be glassy and lined up on that reef. I’d call this the one to go for. It’s a promising call, but it’s a week and a half out, so take it with a grain of salt.

So, the long and short of it is: if you’re desperate for a paddle, tomorrow morning will be clean but small. If you want the goods, you wait for that Thursday the 3rd of September session. It’s a long wait, but it might just be worth it.

Rusty.

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