Coxos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

First up, I gotta be straight with you. The next week and a half is looking like a write-off. We’ve got a lot of days with poor surf conditions, and the wind just won’t play nice. The only spot with any real potential is Coxos, a reef break, and it’s a finicky one. It’s fairly consistent, but it’s an advanced wave, and it often gets crowded. The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t show up until Thursday, August 6th.

Starting on Tuesday, July 28th, we have a tiny bit of swell at Coxos. There’s a 4ft swell from the NNW with a period of 10 seconds, but the wind is cross-on from the NNW at 9 mph, making it choppy. The water temp is a pretty standard 69° for this time of year. The combined energy is weak (333). Honestly, it’s a no-go. This pattern of poor conditions and cross-off winds just keeps rolling through the end of July and into the first few days of August. The swell gets smaller, the period drops, and the wind stays nasty. There’s a solid 8-day stretch where there’s just nothing to recommend.

Now, let’s talk about the only real standout. On Thursday, August 6th, something changes. The swell jumps up to 8ft from the NNW, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy hits a solid 885 (moderate to strong). This is a big, powerful swell. But here’s the catch – the wind is still cross-on from the N at 12 mph in the morning, and onshore in the afternoon. The forecast says "marginal surf forecast." That’s a lot of water moving, but it’s going to be a messy, choppy mess. Because the swell is over 8ft, this is for experts only. Beginners, stay on the beach.

The next couple of days, August 7th and 8th, the swell stays solid (7ft-7ft) but the wind cranks up to a fresh breeze, 22 mph, making it lumpy. The energy is still strong (605-761), but the quality is just not there. It’s a real shame.

Then, on Tuesday, August 11th, we get a pulse of very long-period groundswell. The swell is 8ft from the NNW, but look at the period – 12 seconds. The combined energy is massive: 1565 (very strong). This is a serious, powerful groundswell. For a reef break like Coxos, which is exposed and gets an optimum swell from the NNW, this could be epic. The problem? The wind is still a fresh cross-on from the N at 19 mph. That’s a real bummer. With that long period, the waves will have a lot of energy and long gaps between sets, but the wind will ruin the shape. It’s a promise of what could have been.

So, the bottom line: the only window with any real juice is from August 6th to the 12th. The swell is there, but the wind is a constant battle. For a wave as good as Coxos, it’s a crying shame. If you’re an expert and you’re desperate, you might find something on the 6th or 11th, but don’t expect anything clean. It’s more of a wind-swell battle than a surfer’s paradise. Given the wind and the size, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Keep your eyes on the forecast, because if the wind shifts, Coxos could be on. But for now, it’s a tough pill to swallow.

Rusty.

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