Coxos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a 16-day window for Coxos, and honestly, it’s a rough start. The first week and a half is a write-off unless you’re just desperate for a paddle. The wind is relentless, coming in from the north and north-northwest, and it’s cross-onshore or onshore for days on end. The surf is there, but it’s lumpy, choppy, and just plain ugly. The real standout is a narrow window on the morning of Sunday the 13th of September. That’s where we’ll focus.

The first few days are a total bust. Tuesday the 1st sees some push from a NW swell (6 ft, 9 seconds) but the wind is a fresh 19 mph from the north, cross-onshore, and it’s just messy. The combined energy is moderate (481), but it doesn’t matter with that wind. This pattern holds through the whole first week – moderate to fresh breezes, cross-onshore, and the waves are either too small, too blown out, or both. You’ll get a bit of a lull in the wind on the morning of Saturday the 5th, with a clean cross-offshore breeze, but the swell is only 4 ft from the NW (9 seconds) and the energy is weak (187). It’s surfable, but ordinary.

The morning of Sunday the 6th actually looks *almost* good. The wind goes glassy, just a 3 mph breeze from the WNW, and the swell is a clean 3 ft from the NNW with a long 12-second period. The energy jumps to moderate (439). That’s a classic reef-swell setup, long period, good shape. But the wind shifts in the afternoon back to onshore, and it’s gone. It’s a one-hit wonder, and it’s not quite big enough to be a true standout.

Then we get another week of the same old story – wind, chop, and frustration. Swells pick up a bit, with 7 ft to 8 ft from the NNW on the 8th, 9th, and 10th, but the wind is a solid 16-22 mph cross-onshore. The energy is strong (907 on the 10th morning), but it’s a washing machine. Honestly, for a reef break, that setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The period is also short to moderate (7-10 seconds), so it’s not going to be a classic long-period reef wave.

Now, here’s the one you’ve been waiting for. The morning of Sunday the 13th of September. This is it. The wind goes glassy – a 3 mph breeze from the southwest. The swell is a solid 7 ft from the NNW, with an 8-second period. The combined energy is strong (561). That’s a powerful, punchy swell for the reef. The glassy wind is the key – it’s going to be clean, no wind bumps, just the raw power of the reef. The 8-second period means it’s not a long, drawn-out groundswell, but it’ll be a consistent, well-shaped wave. The crowd profile at Coxos is “often,” so expect some company, but it’ll be worth it. The direction (NNW) is spot-on for the optimum swell direction for this spot. This is the standout. The water temperature is about average for the season.

The tail end of the forecast, from the 14th to the 16th, fades fast. Winds pick up again, and the swell drops right off. The 15th has a long-period (12-second) swell from the NW, but it’s only 3 ft and the wind is onshore, so it’s a no-go. The 16th is more of the same small, choppy junk.

So, to sum it up: the first 12 days are a nightmare of wind. Don’t even bother until the morning of the 13th. That Sunday morning session at Coxos is the only real shot at something special. Mark it on your calendar.

Rusty

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