Coxos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s look at this in feet and miles per hour. The outlook for Coxos is a frustrating one over the next 16 days. This is an advanced reef break that needs a clean NNW swell and offshore wind, and we’re looking at a lot of messy, onshore, or cross-shore conditions. The first few days are a washout, so we’re waiting for a window. The best surf is a long way off, and even then it’s not flawless.

We start on Sunday, the 2nd of August, with a tiny 2ft swell from the west and a gentle breeze blowing from the northwest, which is onshore here. The water’s at 68°F, about average for the time of year, but the surf is just not there. That pattern continues right through the first week—Monday the 3rd through to Sunday the 9th we’ve got a mix of weak, short-period westerly and NNW swells, with the wind constantly cross-onshore or onshore from the northwest quarter. The wave energy is weak to moderate (around 74 to 464), and the conditions are consistently poor. The swell height builds to about 5ft by Thursday the 6th, but with a fresh breeze and lumpy, choppy water, it’s not worth paddling out for. No standouts here.

The second week starts with more of the same. Monday the 10th through Wednesday the 12th is still mostly onshore NNW wind, with swell around 3ft to 4ft. The energy is moderate but the quality is poor. There’s a slight uptick in swell on Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th, with 5ft to 6ft NNW swell, but again, the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and the period is short (6 to 7 seconds). That’s not the kind of groundswell that really makes a reef sing.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Saturday the 15th of August, we see the first real jump in swell size—7ft from the NNW at an 8-second period. The wind is lighter, a gentle breeze from the WNW, but it’s cross-onshore, so there’s still some chop. The energy is strong (547). This is a marginal day, but it’s the best we’ve seen so far.

Sunday the 16th of August is a genuine highlight, and the best session on offer across the whole period. The swell is still a solid 7ft to 7ft from the NNW, with an 8-second period, and the wind switches to a light SSW to SW, giving us a clean cross-offshore flow. That’s a game-changer for a reef break like Coxos. The wave energy is also strong (499 to 481). This is the one. It’s a bit on the bigger side (over 5ft), so it’s for the more experienced crew, but with that clean offshore wind, it’s going to be worth the paddle.

Then, on Monday the 17th of August, we get a big pulse of swell—10ft to 12ft from the NNW at 9 seconds. That’s very strong wave energy (1337 to 1648), but it’s only for experts at that size. The wind is from the NNW, so it’s onshore in the morning and cross-onshore in the afternoon, which will keep it from being perfect. It’s a standout for size, but the quality is compromised by the wind.

So, to wrap it up: you’ve got a long gap of poor conditions until the middle of the second week. The real standout is Sunday the 16th of August, with clean, cross-offshore winds and a solid 7ft to 7ft groundswell from the NNW. That’s the day to circle on the calendar. If you’re an expert, the big swell on Monday the 17th is also worth a look, but expect some wind effects.

Keep your head up, the forecasts can change, but for now, that Sunday is the one.

Rusty.

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