Coxos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Coxos.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the next 16 days are a real mixed bag of pain and promise. The wind just won't play nice most of the time, and that’s a heartbreaker for a spot that needs its conditions to line up. The water’s sitting at 70°, about a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you’re sitting out there waiting for a clean one.

We’re looking at a bit of a cruel joke for the first few days. Sunday the 26th has some size, with 6ft swell from the NNW, but a stiff 30 km/h cross-onshore wind has it all chopped up and lumpy. The wave energy is moderate (372), but it’s a write-off. Monday the 27th morning is the real tease. The swell drops to 4ft from the NNW, but the wind goes glassy. That’s the kind of morning that gets your hopes up, and the energy is still moderate (245). The set period is short at 7 seconds, so it’s a bit weak, but it’s clean. That’s the only real window you’ll see for a few days. After that, it’s a desert of poor surf conditions and cross-on winds until the very end of the forecast.

Now, looking way out to the second week, there’s something brewing, but it’s a long-range promise. The morning of Tuesday the 4th of August pulls in a 4ft NNW swell with a longer 10-second period, and the energy jumps to a solid moderate (459). The wind is still cross-on, but light, so it’s not completely trashed. It’s marginal, but the potential is there. Then, things get a bit more serious. The morning of Thursday the 6th of August has a solid 8ft swell from the NNW, with strong wave energy (689). But that’s only for the experts, and the wind is a fresh 30 km/h cross-on, making it lumpy. You’d have to be pretty keen.

The real standout that catches my eye, though, is the morning of Saturday the 8th of August. That’s the one. We’re looking at a 8ft swell from the NNW, with a very long period of 12 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is a massive 1882, indicating very strong wave power. The water is going to be moving. However, the caveat is brutal: a 45 km/h cross-onshore wind. That wind is going to shred the surface. For a reef break like Coxos, that long-period swell and that much power will make it a heavy, dangerous beast. It’s definitely expert-only territory, and honestly, the wind is so strong, this setup might be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The waves will be there, but it’ll be a battle.

The best actual surf, if you can call it that, is that glassy Monday morning on the 27th of July. It’s small, it’s weak, but it’s clean. That’s your window. For the rest, it’s mostly a waiting game with a lot of wind and chop. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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