Coxos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, this is Rusty. Let me tell you straight up: the next couple of weeks around Coxos are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing special on the cards, but there’s a little glimmer of hope right at the tail end if you’re patient.

The pattern starts quiet and stays that way. For the first week and a half, from Thursday the 9th of July through to around the 20th, it’s mostly small, weak windswell. The combined energy sits around 80 to 100 (weak) most days, with the odd bump up to 144 (moderate) on the 11th, but that's paired with cross-onshore breezes that’ll leave it bumpy and uninviting. Swell heights are tiny, often 1ft to 2ft, and periods are short, between 5 and 9 seconds – that’s just sloppy, weak waves. The wind is almost always on it or cross-onshore, from the NNW or NW, making for messy conditions.

The only remotely surfable moment in that first week comes early on Sunday the 12th. The morning shows a clean, cross-offshore breeze from the SSW, with a 2ft NW swell and a combined energy of 147 (moderate). It’s surfable, but it’s ordinary – just small, weak lines. Not a standout by any stretch.

Then things actually get bigger, but not better. On Saturday the 18th, the swell jumps to a solid 8ft from the NNW with a 8-second period, and the energy spikes to 752 (strong). But the wind is howling 19 mph from the N, cross-onshore, making it a messy, lumpy beast. By Sunday the 19th, we’re seeing 10ft swell with energy over 1300 (very strong) – that’s a lot of water moving. But again, the wind is a strong 25 mph cross-onshore, churning it into a washing machine. At that size and with those winds, it’s not for surfing; it’s more of a kite-surfing zone. Anything over 8ft with this kind of wind is expert-only, and only if you like closeouts.

There’s a big gap of poor-to-unsurfable conditions lasting from the 10th all the way through to the 21st. A solid ten-day stretch where I wouldn’t even bother waxing up.

But then… Tuesday the 21st of July, the wind backs off a little. The morning shows a 7ft NNW swell with a 9-second period and energy at 603 (strong). It’s still cross-onshore, but only a gentle breeze, so it’s choppy but maybe just about manageable for a strong paddler. It’s rated as marginal.

The true standout, though, is Wednesday the 22nd of July. That morning, the stars almost align. We get a clean 4ft swell from the NNW with an 8-second period. That's a fun, head-high size for Coxos, and the energy is moderate at 229. The real win is the wind: a light SSE breeze blowing straight offshore. That means glassy, clean faces. Coxos is a reef break, and it’s fairly consistent, exposed to the NNW swell – which is exactly the optimum direction the locals love. It’ll be clean, have some push, and draw nice lines down the reef. The water temp is about 66°, which is pretty average for this time of year – no surprises there. But be aware, crowds are often here, so you’ll have company if you paddle out. For a reef, the period is short enough to keep the waves from breaking too straight, so you’ll get some nice corners. This is your best bet in the whole 16-day window.

After that, it drops back down quickly. Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th are back to ankle-snappers with weak energy and iffy wind. A couple of afternoons show a 14-second period on the 24th, but with tiny 1.0ft swell and strong cross-shore wind, it’s useless.

So here's the takeaway: endure a long, flat, or blown-out first ten days. If you’re desperate, Sunday the 12th is barely worth it. Saturday the 18th is a kite day. The real reason to stay tuned is Wednesday morning the 22nd. That’s the one. Clean, offshore, head-high waves at a classic reef. Mark it in your calendar and plan to be there early.

Rusty, signing off.

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