Coxos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the lineup for the next couple of weeks.

The outlook starts with a bit of a tease. The forecast is for a long stretch of poor conditions, with only a few small windows where the surf is even barely surfable. The good news is, the real swell starts to show up around the end of the month, but it’s going to be a long wait with mostly cross-onshore wind and messy, lumpy seas.

For the first recommendation, Coxos on Tuesday the 18th of August is a tough one to call. We’ve got a 5ft (1.5m) NNW swell pushing in with a short period of 8 seconds from a cross-off SSW wind. The combined energy is moderate (275). The water is sitting at 68°F, which is a tad below average for this time of year—about 2°F cooler than usual, so not a dramatic change but noticeable. The wind is light, keeping the surface clean, but the marginal surf forecast and questionable tide mean it’s not exactly a standout. The swell is right in the optimum direction for this reef, so there’s potential, but it feels like a low-energy, short-period wave that’s going to be tricky to ride.

Wednesday the 19th morning is a similar story. A drop to 3ft (0.9m) with a 7-second period from the NNW, and the combined energy is weak (106). The wind is cross-off from the SSW, so it’s clean, but the wave is small and weak. It’s surfable, but very ordinary.

The real action, if you can call it that, doesn’t pick up until the 21st of August. The swell jumps to 5ft (1.6m) on Friday morning with a 7-second period and a combined energy of 493 (moderate), but the wind is a fresh 19 mph (30 km/h) cross-onshore. It’s lumpy, messy, and the surf quality is poor. This is a classic case of a beach-and-reef setup like Coxos turning into something more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the strong wind and lumpy conditions.

The next few days are dominated by fresh to strong winds, with the swell peaking at 10ft (3.0m) on Sunday the 23rd. That’s solid, heavy swell (1201 energy), but it’s a 25 mph (40 km/h) cross-onshore wind. The wave height is over 8ft (2.5m), making it strictly for experts only, and even then, the wind is blowing it to bits. The period is short (8 seconds), so it’s going to be a messy, choppy beast.

The conditions finally start to look more promising around the 27th of August. Thursday morning we see a 4ft (1.3m) swell from the NW with a longer period of 10 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (341). The wind is onshore from the NW, but at a gentle 9 mph (15 km/h), it’s not as destructive. The wave quality is still unknown, but it’s a groundswell with a longer period. This is the kind of swell that could work well at a point or reef break like Coxos, but it’s still going to be a bit of a mess with the onshore wind.

The best offer on the table is the morning of Monday the 31st of August. The swell is only 2ft (0.6m) from the WNW with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is weak (145). But the wind is a glassy NNE breeze at 3 mph (5 km/h). The surface is glassy, and the break is exposed to the swell. It’s a small wave, but it’s clean, and the crowd factor is “often” at Coxos, so expect company. This is a true hidden gem for the patient surfer looking for a smooth, if small, session.

The final day of the forecast, the 2nd of September, is a bit of a head-scratcher. We have a 1ft (0.3m) swell from the WNW with a very long period of 19 seconds, and a combined energy of 155 (weak). The period is significant—very long—which means the wave will have a lot of energy and long gaps between sets. At a reef like Coxos, this could be a dream, with the swell wrapping in and offering clean, long lines. But the wind is a fresh 19 mph (30 km/h) cross-onshore, so it’s going to be lumpy and messy. It’s a classic case of the swell being right, but the wind being wrong.

Overall, it’s a slow start with a lot of onshore wind. The best bet is to wait for the 31st of August for a glassy, small session, or the 27th of August for a bigger, longer-period swell, albeit with a bit of onshore wind. The long-range swell on the 2nd of September is promising but less certain.

Rusty signing off.

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