Coxos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s get into it. Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for this spot. The word is Coxos, and it’s a classic reef break that needs the right conditions to fire. Looking at the whole 16-day window, I gotta be straight with you: the first week is a total write-off. We’re looking at a solid 10-day gap of nothing worth paddling out for, starting from now.

From Saturday the 11th through to nearly the end of the following week, it’s a mess. You’ve got tiny swell, often under 3 ft, and the wind is almost always cross-on or howling from the north. The combined energy is weak, barely cracking 100 (126) on the best of those early days. The water temp is sitting at 66°F, which is about 1°F cooler than normal for this time of year, so nothing wild there, just a touch of the usual summer chill. Saturday afternoon the 11th is a no-go with cross-on wind and a chopy 2 ft NW swell. Sunday the 12th morning is the best of a bad lot with a clean cross-off breeze and a 2 ft NW swell, but it’s still just a knee-high novelty. The rest of the first week and into the second is a brutal run of poor conditions, with wind speeds hitting 18 mph or more.

Hold on though, because the second week is where the story changes. Things start to get interesting around Monday the 20th of July. The swell is pumping up, but so is the wind – it’s all cross-on and strong, so the surf quality is still poor. The numbers are getting big though. By Tuesday the 21st of July, the swell is a solid 10 ft from the NNW, and the combined energy is massive (1397). The wind finally goes offshore (NNW 9 mph) on Tuesday morning, but the wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions”, so it’s not a guaranteed clean session, but for a crew of experts, this is the window.

The real standout, and the one true shot of the forecast, is Wednesday the 22nd of July. Morning sees a 10 ft NNW swell with a period of 10 seconds, and the combined energy is through the roof (1770). The wind is a light cross-on from the west at 6 mph, which is about as glassy as you’re gonna get with that much NW swell. This is a big, powerful groundswell, and at a reef like Coxos, it’s going to produce some serious, well-shaped lines. The waves are going to be well overhead, and with a 10-second period, there’ll be good energy and a bit of a wait between sets. This is not for beginners – at 10 ft, it’s expert territory only. Crowds are a possibility here, as it’s often busy, but for a day like this, it’ll be worth the company. Keep in mind, with the swell direction being NNW and the optimum from the same direction, it’s a direct hit.

After that, the swell slowly backs off through the rest of the week, but the wind stays mostly offshore or light, offering some clean but smaller options. By Thursday the 23rd, you’re still looking at a solid 7 ft NNW swell with light offshore winds, but the energy is dropping (660). The last few days of the month are a step down again, with the swell dropping under 5 ft and the wind turning cross-on, so it’s back to marginal conditions.

Overall, the clear winner is the morning of Wednesday the 22nd of July. That’s the one to circle. The rest of the window is either too small and windy or too big and messy. It’s a long wait, but for the right crew, that one session could be the goods.

Rusty.

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