Supertubos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Rusty here, looking at the 16-day forecast for Supertubos. Honestly, it’s a bit of a tough stretch ahead. The next week is looking pretty bleak for any decent waves, but we’ve got a glimmer of hope towards the very end of August.

The pattern for the next several days is dominated by clean but tiny swell. Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd are near-flat with weak energy (35 to 71). The swell from the SW is long-period (15 seconds), which would be nice if there was any size, but at 1 foot, it’s basically a lake. The wind is light, but there's just nothing to ride.

We get a bit of a pulse on Sunday the 23rd, with a building WNW swell hitting 6 feet. The combined energy jumps up to a moderate 728-732, which sounds promising. But look – the wind is cross-on and howling, and the swell period is short (10-11 seconds). This is going to be a lumpy, wind-affected mess, not worth paddling out for. Monday the 24th is even worse, with strong 25 mph winds and a messy 8-foot short-period swell, only for the hardcore or kitesurfers.

Tuesday the 25th through Thursday the 27th still isn’t great. We’ve got some waist to chest-high swell (4 to 6 feet) but the winds are all over the place – onshore or cross-on – keeping the surface choppy and poor. The combined energy hits moderate levels (119 to 558), but it’s just not clean.

Now, here’s the standout. Friday morning, August the 28th is our window. A solid NW groundswell rolls in at 7 feet, with a nice 11-second period. The combined energy is very strong at 928. And the wind? A light NNW cross-offshore breeze. That’s the key. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” Supertubos (Peniche) is a beach and reef setup that’s fairly exposed to the SW, but this NW swell with offshore wind should set it up well. It’s an advanced wave, and at 7 feet it’s getting into expert territory, so leave the log at home. Because it’s a fairly consistent spot, I’d get on it early.

After that pulse, the swell drops off a cliff. Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th see knee-high dribble (2 to 3 feet) and weak energy (0 to 78). Monday the 31st brings a small bump (4 feet) but with cross-onshore winds. The whole first week of September just fades away into tiny, wind-affected slop. It’s a 5-day stretch of poor surf from the 31st all the way through to the 5th of September, with nothing over 4 feet and blown-out conditions. The long-range outlook is quiet.

To be straight with you, the only real call in this 16-day window is that Friday morning, August 28th. Don’t sleep on it, because the rest is a write-off.

Rusty.

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