Carcavelos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this forecast for Carcavelos is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of days where the swell is just too weak or the wind is putting a chop on it. The whole 16-day window is a struggle, but there is a little light at the end of the tunnel.

For the first week and a half, it’s flat or close to it. From Wednesday the 15th through to the 24th of July, we’re looking at tiny waves, mostly under 2 feet, with a lot of cross-shore wind messing things up. The combined swell energy is a measly 43 to 168 (weak to moderate energy), so you’re basically fighting for a knee-high dribble. The water temp is sitting at 68°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing to complain about there. But honestly, this is a time to leave the boards in the car.

There’s a glimmer on the morning of Wednesday the 22nd – the surf report says "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions" with a clean face and a 1 foot WNW swell. That’s a maybe, but it’s a long shot. The crowds at Carcavelos are often thick, so don’t expect a quiet session even for that.

Then, things get interesting – and a little scary. The morning of Sunday the 26th of July is our only real standout. The forecast shows an 8 foot swell from the NNW with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 899 (strong wave energy). The wind is cross-shore, but the surf report says "wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break." That’s a big red flag for beginners. This is expert-only territory. An 8 foot wave on a beach break like Carcavelos is a proper handful, and with that period, it’s going to be a powerful, dumpy wall.

The last few days of the month, from the 29th to the 30th, tease us again. The morning of Wednesday the 29th has a clean, off-shore wind from the N, with a 6 foot NNW swell. The swell energy is 477 (moderate-strong energy), and conditions are called "good." But then the 30th of July morning shows a 7 foot swell with clean cross-offshore wind, but again, it’s flagged as "too big for this break."

So, to sum it up: if you’re a beginner, stay home for the first two weeks. The only real window for a proper, clean surf is the morning of the 29th for the more experienced crew, but that’s a long way off and the forecast could change. For the die-hards, the 30th morning is also a promising one, but it’s big. The rest of the time, it’s a flat spell with a few ripples. Don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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