Carcavelos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, mate. Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s sliding our way over the next couple of weeks.

We’re looking at a pretty flat start for Carcavelos. The first few days are a write-off, honestly. From Tuesday the 14th right through to Saturday the 19th, it’s mostly tiny, weak waves with a lot of onshore and cross-shore wind messing things up. The combined swell energy is barely a whisper, down in the double digits (80 and lower), so don’t even bother waxing the board just yet. That’s a solid six-day gap of nothing worth paddling for. Water temperature is sitting at 67°F, and the anomaly is negligible at -0.5°F, so it’s about bang on average for the time of year.

Then things start to get a little more interesting. Sunday the 19th through to Tuesday the 22nd finally sees a pulse of swell. The pick of this early run is Tuesday morning, the 21st. We’ve got a NNW swell pushing 5ft with a period of 7 seconds, and the wind is a clean offshore from the NNW at 9 mph. The combined energy is moderate at 248. It’s not a classic, but it’s the first decent window we’ve had. The waves will be a bit short-period and a little wind-affected, but for a beginner-friendly spot like Carcavelos, it’s actually a good chance to get out. The crowds are often here, so expect company.

Now, if you can hold out, the real standout window is shaping up for the morning of Monday the 28th. This is the one. The forecast shows a solid 6ft groundswell from the NW with a period of 9 seconds, groomed by a light offshore breeze from the NW at 9 mph. The combined energy jumps up to a strong 593, and the wind conditions will have it looking clean. This is the best quality on offer in the whole 16-day window.

But keep an eye on the weekend before that, the 25th and 26th. The swell is forecast to be big, hitting 8ft from the NNW. That’s expert territory for a beach break like this, and the winds are a bit ugly, with a cross-chop. The combined energy is massive (867 and 828), but it’s too much for a comfortable paddle. It’s more of a look-at-it-from-the-beach kind of day.

So, the short story: there’s a long, flat stretch for the first week. The best call is to aim for the 21st for a manageable session, but the absolute standout is that Monday morning, the 28th. That’s the one with the best combination of size, wind, and cleanness. Keep your fingers crossed for the long-range on that one.

Rusty.

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