Carcavelos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Carcavelos. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a pretty bleak run ahead.

The story for the next couple of weeks is mostly tiny, weak swell and iffy wind. The water temperature is sitting at 68°, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you sit there waiting for something to ride.

We kick off on Thursday, the 9th of July, but honestly, it’s not worth a paddle. Swell is a measly 2ft out of the WNW with a period of 10 seconds and a combined energy of just 58. The wind is cross-off in the morning, which keeps it clean, but the waves have no punch. It’s “poor surf conditions” all day long.

Friday the 10th is much the same story – 2ft of weak WNW swell, energy around 65. Morning has a clean look with a cross-off breeze, but it’s just not doing anything. Afternoon gets a bit choppy.

The weekend is a little more interesting, but not by much. Saturday the 11th morning sees the swell period stretch out to 11 seconds, which is a longer period groundswell, but the height is still only 2ft from the NW. The combined energy jumps up a bit to 98, and with a light cross-off breeze, it will be clean. You might find a little waist-high wave, but it’ll be inconsistent. Afternoon the wind swings onshore and turns it into a chop-fest.

Sunday the 12th has a morning pulse of 3ft from the WNW, energy hitting 164. That’s the best size we’ve seen, but the wind is directly onshore from the SSW, so it’s going to be messy. That’s a real shame.

After that, we hit a long, flat stretch. From Monday the 13th right through to Friday the 17th, the swell drops into the 1ft to 2ft range. Energy levels are weak, mostly below 100. A few mornings stay clean with cross-off breezes, especially Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th, but there’s just not enough wave to push a log around. It’s a solid week of no real surf.

Towards the end of the run, we get a late pulse. Saturday the 18th afternoon brings a spike: 6ft and 299 energy from the NNW, but it’s short period at 6 seconds. That’s a windswell with no shape – and with a 22 mph cross-off wind, it’s going to be blown out and bumpy. Sunday the 19th, Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st all have some waist to chest-high lumps in the 4ft to 6ft range, energy between 156 and 385. The period is still short (6-7 seconds), which means it’s gonna be a bit of a washing machine. The wind stays cross-off or cross, which keeps the surface reasonably clean, but the quality is marginal at best. For a beach break like Carcavelos, these short period swells don't hold their shape well. It might be more interesting for kite surfers looking for some breeze and bumpy waves than for paddle surfers hunting for a clean face.

So what’s the standout? Honestly, the best bet of the whole run is the Saturday 11th of July morning. If you’re desperate, that 11-second groundswell with light offshore in the morning will be clean. It’s small – maybe knee to waist high – but you won’t be fighting the wind. Keep your expectations low, though. The late pulse around Sunday the 19th to Monday the 20th will have more size, but the quality isn’t there.

A note on the water: that 0.6° anomaly means the ocean is feeling pretty standard for July.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. It’s a tough outlook, but that’s the long-range for you.

Rusty.

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