Carcavelos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the surf situation for Carcavelos. To be straight with you, this isn't one of those epic windows where everything lines up perfectly. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty tricky.

The water’s sitting at about 70°, which is basically what you'd expect for this time of year—nothing wild going on there.

We've got a bit of a gap before anything really worth paddling out for. The early days are a write-off: Thursday 13th and Friday 14th are a mess of ordinary conditions and poor surf. The swell is there, but the wind is just trashing it, and the scores back that up.

Saturday 15th and Sunday 16th see the swell jump up, but it's a problem. We're looking at 8ft on Saturday and 8ft on Sunday from the NNW. For a beginner spot like this, that’s just too much water moving around. The energy readings are through the roof (863 on Saturday, 897 on Sunday), which tells you it’s powerful, but not for your average surfer. The wind is cross-off, so it’s clean, but honestly, at that size, this is really only for the experienced crew, and even then, it's a handful.

Now, Monday 17th is your best chance. Early morning, the swell has dropped to a still-chunky 7ft from the NNW, but the wind is glassy. Literally, we’re talking a 5 km/h NNE breeze—that’s a "Slight air" on the charts, making for a glassy surface. The energy is still moderate-to-strong at 570, but that clean, glassy face on a 7ft wave is about as good as it gets for the bigger swells here. This is the standout. If you’re up for a challenge and you know the break, be out there Monday dawn patrol.

After that, it goes south again. Most of the following week (through to the 25th) is a mix of onshore winds, poor conditions, and messy surf. There are small windows of opportunity, like the morning of Tuesday 26th, but the wind is cross-on and there’s rain or storms in the air. It’s not worth getting excited about.

Further out, around Thursday 27th and Friday 28th, the swell is back up over 7ft again, but the wind conditions are mixed, and the energy is very strong. Again, it’s likely going to be too big for most at this break, and the long-range forecast makes it a promise, not a certainty. It’s one to watch, but don't book the time off work just yet.

To be honest, for a break that’s usually fairly consistent, this forecast is a long stretch of "wait and see." The Monday 17th morning session is the only clear, clean highlight in the whole 16-day window. Get it while you can.

Rusty.

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