Carcavelos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right now, it’s looking pretty flat and weak for the next week and a half, I’m not gonna lie. The first solid surf window doesn’t roll around until late in the period, so we’ve got a long stretch of small and messy conditions to sit through first.

The water’s currently sitting at 70°F for the first break, which is about one degree Fahrenheit warmer than usual for this time of year – nothing crazy, just a touch of extra warmth.

From Saturday the 18th to Wednesday the 29th of July, it’s a tough watch. The swell is tiny, mostly under 3ft, and the wind is either cross or cross-off from the NW or NNW. The energy levels are really weak, with readings like 17 (very weak) and at best 177 (moderate) on the Monday afternoon. The period is short too, mostly 4-8 seconds, so there’s no grunt in the water. On Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd, the morning conditions are clean but the waves are just too ordinary to get excited about. The combined energy is still low, around 139 and 66 respectively. It’s a long dry spell, basically a week and a half of nothing worth paddling out for.

Now, here’s the one standout in the whole 16-day window – and it’s a doozy, but you have to be patient. On Sunday the 26th of July, the surf finally arrives. The morning sees a clean 7ft swell from the NNW with a period of 7 seconds, and the combined energy reading jumps to 535 (moderate). The wind is cross-off from the NNW, which means clean faces. BUT – that 7ft is getting big for this spot. Carcavelos is a beginner-friendly break, and once the swell pushes over 8ft, it’s only for experts. The guidance says it’s a bit too big for this break, so if you’re experienced and hungry, you might get some powerful waves, but it’s not for the faint-hearted. The Monday morning the 27th of July pushes even bigger, with 10ft and a combined energy of 1159 (strong) – that’s raw power, but again, it’s too big for the break and the wind is strong at 19 mph. Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th stay in the 8ft range with strong energy, but the wind is still fresh. The real sweet spot might be the morning of Thursday the 30th of July when the swell drops to a more manageable 7ft (combined energy 519), the wind is a gentle cross-off from the N, and the conditions are described as “very good.” That’s your best bet for a clean, powerful session without it being overwhelming.

So, the long and short of it: you’ve got nearly two weeks of nothing, then a solid but potentially too-big swell, and then a cracking morning on Thursday the 30th. If you’re a beginner, sit this one out. For the experienced crew, mark your calendar for the 30th.

Rusty.

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