Carcavelos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. The first real surf to get excited about is on Sunday the 13th of September, so we’ve got a few days of flat and ordinary conditions to sit through before anything worthwhile shows up.

Come Sunday morning, the 13th, we’re in for a treat. Carcavelos is the only game in town, and it’s looking clean. We’ve got a 3ft swell pushing in from the NW, but the period is a juicy 13 seconds, so that’s proper groundswell. The combined energy is moderate at 338, and with a glassy ESE offshore breeze at 3 mph, it’s going to be smooth. The water temp is sitting at 67°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. Sunday afternoon sees a bit more size at 4ft, but the wind swings onshore and the conditions get messy, so stick to the morning.

Monday the 14th is a write-off, with cross-shore winds messing up the 3ft swell. Tuesday the 15th is tiny and weak, not worth paddling out for. Wednesday the 16th is a big one, but it’s a warning – we’re seeing a 10ft NW swell hammering in with strong energy dumping in (1540). That’s expert-only territory, and it’ll be way too big for this break. The NNW cross-off wind at 25 mph will clean it up, but it’s a beast. Thursday the 17th stays big at over 7ft, still only for the experienced crew.

Friday the 18th drops a bit to 6ft, but it’s still heavy. Then Saturday the 19th morning is the real standout. That’s the pick of the whole run. We’ve got 6ft of NW swell, moderate energy at 594, and a light N cross-off breeze at 6 mph making for clean waves. This is proper, and for the first time in days, the size is manageable for a good surfer.

The following week sees a steady run of NW swell in the 3ft to 4ft range. Sunday the 20th morning has clean 4ft surf with a light offshore. Monday the 21st morning is the pick of that week, with 4ft and a clean offshore NNE breeze at 3 mph – glassy conditions. The water is still that bit colder than average.

Later in the week, things get a bit messy with onshore winds and chop. Then, on Friday the 25th of September, we’ve got another big pulse coming. Morning sees a 8ft NW swell with a 14-second period and very strong energy (2910), but it’s glassy. The afternoon kicks up to 8ft. That’s expert-only size again, so be careful. That swell backs off into Saturday the 26th for a cleaner, more manageable 6ft morning session with light offshore winds.

So, overall, the Sunday the 13th and Saturday the 19th mornings are the ones to mark in the calendar. Crowds are a real possibility at Carcavelos, as they often are, but the quality of the waves on those days will make it worth battling for a peak. One final note: this spot can be inconsistent, and the forecast confidence is reasonable for the near-term, but those longer-range standouts like the 25th are promising but a little less certain.

Rusty.

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