Alfagar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s call it like it is: the next two weeks at Alfagar are mostly a flat, blown-out mess. We got a long stretch of nothing, then a little bump of energy right at the end that might give you something to paddle into.

Water temp’s around 68°, which is a touch colder than usual for this time of year – you’ll feel it on your first duck dive.

Starting now, Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th are dead. Knee-high dribble, cross-onshore breeze chopping it all up. The swell energy is weak, down in the 70s (72 to 78). Not worth suiting up.

Monday the 17th through Friday the 22nd? Put the board away. Swell’s mostly under a foot and a half, periods are short and gutless. The wind’s all over the place, but it’s just a mess for the most part. There’s a quick look on Saturday morning the 22nd with a light offshore, but the swell’s only 2ft with a 7-second period – it’s not doing a thing. Energy values are in the teens to 40s – super weak. This is a proper dry spell.

Then we get a tiny pulse on Sunday the 23rd. The morning shows about 3ft from the NW, but with a short 7-second period and only 112 combined energy. The report says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” – meaning it’s small and weak, but at least it’s clean with a light cross-offshore breeze. If you’re desperate, that’s your window, but keep the expectations in the car.

Monday the 24th kicks up a touch more – 4ft NW, with energy jumping to 185 – but the wind swings onshore and it’s crossed-up and lumpy. Rotten. The rest of that week fades back to ankle-biters, 2ft bumps with no power, all the way to the 28th.

Now, here’s the one to circle on the calendar. It’s over a week out, so don’t get too excited yet, but Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th are showing some life. On Saturday the 29th, we’re looking at 4ft to 5ft from the NW, with energy climbing to 227 in the morning and 316 in the afternoon. It’s still a cross-offshore breeze, which should keep it a bit lined up. The period is only 8 to 9 seconds, so it’s not a clean groundswell, but it’s the biggest we’ve seen all window.

Sunday the 30th looks even better in the morning – 4ft from the WNW, period up to 10 seconds, and the combined energy jumping to 410. That’s the most powerful swell of the whole forecast, and the light cross-offshore wind should have it holding some shape. The catch – both afternoons, the wind is forecast to blow fresh from the WNW at 30 km/h, which will chop it up. So, the early sessions on the 29th and 30th are your best bets. But remember, this is a long-range call, so treat it as “promising” not “certain.”

Alfagar’s a reef break, and it’s inconsistent, so even when it does show, be prepared to wait for sets. But if you’re willing to put in the time, that Sunday morning the 30th has the best mix of size, energy, and clean conditions we’ve seen. It’s not going to be a classic, but it’s the only real surf on offer in this whole flat spell.

Rusty out.

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