Cogumelo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s comin’ up for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a pretty grim stretch ahead. The first week is looking like a write-off, with nothing but small, choppy, cross-onshore junk. From Monday the 10th right through to Sunday the 16th, it’s all poor surf conditions with heights barely cracking 5 ft but with a messy wind ruining any chance of a decent wave. The swell energy is weak to moderate at best, with readings like 121 (moderate) early on, but it’s all short-period windswell from the NW, so it’s just a crumbly, bumpy mess. The water temp is 67°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a decent suit.

There’s a glimmer of hope on Tuesday morning the 18th. The wind finally swings around to a light cross-off from the NNE, and the conditions clean right up. The swell is still tiny at 3 ft from the NW, and the energy is weak (104), but it’s surfable. It’s not a standout, just a chance to get wet if you’re desperate.

Then we hit a real dry spell. Wednesday the 19th through Friday the 21st is mostly flat or tiny, with a weird 0.7 ft groundswell from the SSW on the 19th that has a deep 14-second period, but no size to work with and onshore winds. The energy is pitiful (28). Friday morning the 21st turns glassy with a 3 ft WNW swell, but it’s still just ordinary.

Now, the real action starts on Saturday the 22nd. Saturday morning, the wind goes glassy, and we get a clean 5 ft NW swell with moderate energy (252). It’s short period at 7 seconds, so it’ll be a bit soft and fat, but it’s the first proper surfable day in ages. The standouts, though, are Sunday the 23rd. Sunday morning is glassy with a 3 ft NW groundswell that has a solid 12-second period, but the energy is already strong (790). The real gem is Sunday afternoon: the wind is glassy, the swell jumps to 6 ft from the NW with a 11-second period, and the energy is a massive 1260. That’s excellent surf for experienced surfers, but at 6 ft it’s getting big, so beginners should sit this one out. The break is Cogumelo, which is exposed and fairly consistent, with an offshore from the E and crowds often. It’s a point break or reef setup, so that long-period groundswell will wrap in nicely, a good fit for the optimum SW direction.

Monday the 24th still has size, with a 4 ft WNW swell from a deep 14-second period in the morning, but the wind is onshore, so it’s a bit iffy. Energy is still huge (1056), but the wind is the enemy. Tuesday the 25th morning cleans up again with glassy conditions and a 4 ft WNW swell, so a solid option if you missed the Sunday blast.

The one true standout is Sunday the 23rd afternoon. Go for it.

Rusty.

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