Cogumelo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with you straight up: this whole 16-day window is a tough one for Cogumelo. We’re looking at a pretty barren run, with only a couple of fleeting moments that might get your heart beating. The overall pattern is one of small, weak swell and persistent onshore or cross-shore winds, so don’t get your hopes up.

Kicking off from Thursday the 30th of July right through to the end of the first week, it’s grim. The swell is tiny, barely ankle to knee high, with periods all over the place and a combined swell energy that’s barely a whisper, never cracking triple digits. The wind is a constant curse, mostly cross or cross-onshore, keeping the surface messy and choppy. You’d be fighting an uphill battle for nothing. This stretch is dead.

Then we hit a bit of a lull. Saturday the 1st of August morning shows a tiny 0.7m (2ft) W swell, but at least the wind goes cross-off light from the NNE, cleaning it right up. The combined energy is still low at 82, so it’s weak, but it’s the first time all week you could actually paddle out without getting smashed by windchop. Still, it’s “ordinary” at best. Saturday afternoon and all of Sunday are back to the same old junk.

The rest of the first week into the second week offers no real hope. Monday the 3rd through to Wednesday the 5th of August is more of the same: small, weak, and cross-onshore. The swell ticks up a fraction on Wednesday the 5th but the wind turns onshore, making it useless.

Now for the one true standout, and it’s a special one. Thursday the 6th of August morning. This is the one you want. We’ve got a 0.6m (2ft) W swell, period sitting at a nice 10 seconds, and the combined energy is a modest 81, so it’s not a powerhouse. But the wind? Glass. Absolutely glassy. “Slight air” and glassy conditions means it will be like a lake out there, but with real little waves. For a spot that’s been getting hammered by wind, this is the clear winner. It’s the best of the bunch by a mile. The water temp anomaly is average for this time of year, so no surprises there, just nice clean conditions on a tiny but rideable wave.

After that high point, it’s back downhill. The second week is a real mixed bag of nothing. Friday the 7th through Sunday the 9th of August sees a small bump in swell energy on the 7th (135) and 8th (155), but the wave heights are still only 0.9m (3ft) to 1.1m (4ft), and the period is short and weak. The wind stays cross-onshore or onshore, so any energy is just chopped to bits. Monday the 10th of August is more of the same.

Then we see another small window. Tuesday the 11th of August morning has a 1.1m (4ft) NW swell, but the energy is 104, so it’s still moderate. And the wind goes glassy again from the N! That’s promising for clean, if small, surf. But later that day it turns onshore and the swell jumps a bit. And for the next couple of days, Wednesday the 12th of August morning shows the biggest energy of the whole run at 293, with a 1.4m (5ft) NW swell and a period of 9 seconds. That’s the strongest push we see, but the wind is cross-onshore, and the conditions are described as marginal. It *could* be okay, but it’s not the clean, glassy winner we had on the 6th. The rest of the run fades into tiny, weak nothing.

If you can only paddle out once, make it Thursday the 6th of August morning for that glassy, clean 0.6m (2ft) swell. If you miss it, the Tuesday the 11th of August morning is your backup glassy window. The Wednesday the 12th morning has the most energy, but the wind will mess it up. For the rest, save your energy.

Rusty.

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