Cogumelo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s cookin' at Cogumelo over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I gotta be straight with you – this stretch is looking pretty grim for a paddle. We’ve got a solid 16-day window but the first week and a half is a write-off. From July 16th right through to the 25th, every single session is rated as poor surf conditions. The wind is stuck in a cross-on pattern, mostly from the NW, and the swell is tiny – we're talking 1.0ft to 4ft of weak, short-period slop. The combined wave energy is almost always in the double digits (anywhere from 27 to 121), which is just weak. There’s nothing to get excited about here.

Then we hit July 26th. Sunday morning brings a bit of a pulse – swell jumps to 7ft from the NW with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy hits 653 – that’s moderate, finally. But the wind is still a gentle cross-on, making it fairly choppy. The afternoon on the 26th sees the swell at 8ft from the NW, energy at 750, but the wind shifts to onshore from the WNW, and the conditions are still poor. This is getting into that size where it’s getting too big for beginners, but the wind is ruining the quality.

July 27th is a total dud – flat, glassy, zero energy. Dead calm.

July 28th has a tease of a very long-period groundswell (16 seconds) but it’s only 0.3ft. That’s a ghost swell. The energy is 10-11. Not surfable.

July 29th has a bit more size – 5ft to 6ft from the NW, period 7 seconds, energy in the 263-368 range. But again, it’s cross-on and choppy. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, to be honest.

July 30th drops back to tiny 1ft with a fresh cross-on wind at 19 mph. Lumpy. July 31st shows a bit of a spike – 6ft to 6ft from the NW, energy up to 479, but still cross-on, still choppy.

So, what’s the best on offer? If you’re desperate, July 26th morning has the most size and energy, but the wind is a buzzkill. July 31st morning has the next best energy. But honestly, there’s no standout here. The water temp is sitting at 67°F with a -1°F anomaly, which is pretty average for the time of year.

Keep your expectations low, folks. The forecasts can change, but right now, this is a blank run for good surf.

Rusty

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