Cogumelo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into what’s shaping up at Cogumelo.

Look, I’ll be honest with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak. The entire first half of this forecast period is a write-off. From Wednesday the 19th of August all the way through to the end of the month, it’s nothing but poor surf conditions day after day. The winds are mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the swell is messy, short-period, and weak. There’s a bit of energy building around the 21st and 22nd, with swell heights hitting 6ft and combined energy readings in the 300 to 400 range (moderate energy), but the wind is just too crap to make anything of it. It’s cross-onshore and choppy, and with periods of only 8 to 9 seconds, the waves will be weak and bumpy. Not worth paddling out for.

The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing wild there.

Now, after a long stretch of nothing, things finally start to look promising on the 31st of August, Monday morning. The swell jumps to 5ft from the northwest with a 12-second period (that’s a proper groundswell), and the combined energy hits 805 (strong wave energy). The wind is cross-shore, so the wave quality is marginal but a lot better than what we’ve seen. However, the afternoon gets hammered by a fresh cross-onshore breeze. Keep an eye on the morning window.

But the real standout here – and I mean the only standout in the whole 16-day run – is Wednesday the 2nd of September, first thing in the morning. This is the one to circle on the calendar. Cogumelo is an exposed spot, and the optimum swell direction is southwest, but we’ve got a 5ft northwest groundswell rolling in with an 11-second period, and the combined energy is 606 (strong wave energy). The wind? Cross-offshore from the north-northeast at just 3 mph. That’s damn near glassy. The report says “clean” – and that’s exactly what it’ll be. This is going to produce some clean, well-shaped waves. It’s an intermediate spot with fairly consistent surf, but be aware crowds are often here. Given how long the wait has been, it’ll probably be busy. But for quality, this is the only morning in the whole outlook that delivers.

After that, things fall apart again into early September with poor winds and weaker swell.

So, to sum it up: a massive dry spell, then one clean morning on the 2nd of September. That’s your window.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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