Cogumelo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I've got to be straight with you – the next 16 days at Cogumelo are a tough watch. The forecast is a bit of a write-off for decent paddle surfing. The wind is never truly offshore, and the swell is almost always messy and weak. A lot of cross and cross-onshore wind, and the waves are just not cooperating. The first real action isn't until the 6th of August, but even then, it's a flat start with poor surf.

For the first week, from Thursday the 6th right through to the 12th, it's a real grind. Swell heights are tiny, mostly under 3 feet, with periods often as low as 5 to 8 seconds, meaning weak, choppy lines. The wind is a constant problem. Morning sessions might offer a bit of cross-shore breeze, but afternoons are almost always cross-onshore and choppy. The combined energy is weak, barely cracking 100 (65-91) on most days, so there's just no power in the water. The swell is coming from the NW and WNW, which is okay for the spot, but the quality is just not there – every single entry says "poor surf conditions." You'd be better off staying home.

The second week, from the 13th of August onward, the swell energy starts to build. The combined energy jumps up to the 100s and 200s (177-249), and the swell heights push a bit, hitting 4 feet to 5 feet by the 14th and 15th. The period stays around 7 to 9 seconds, so it's still a bit of a windswell feel. But again, the wind is the killer. The mornings are the best bet, with lighter cross-shore breezes, but as soon as the afternoon hits, it's back to cross-onshore chop. The water is a bit colder than normal for this time of year at 68°, which is a bit of a bite.

If you were desperate and had to paddle out, the best of a bad lot would be the morning of Wednesday the 19th of August. The wind is a light 3 mph from the NNW, which is as close to glassy as we get, with a cross-on wind state. The swell is 3 feet from the WNW at 8 seconds, and the combined energy is 128. It's not pumping, but it's the cleanest the ocean will look for a paddle. But honestly, the whole 16-day window is a dud for surfing. The setup is consistently poor, and there's no standout day. With this persistent cross-onshore wind and weak, short-period swell, it might actually be more interesting for a kite surfer than a surfer on a paddleboard. Don't hold your breath.

Rusty.

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