Cogumelo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. I’m looking at the lineup for the next couple of weeks at Cogumelo, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough stretch. The forecast is serving up a lot of messy, chopped-up conditions with onshore winds, so you’re gonna have to be patient or pick your windows very carefully.

For the first week, from Wednesday the 15th right through to about Tuesday the 22nd of July, the surf is small and the wind is a pain. We’re looking at knee-high dribblers, mostly around 1ft to 2ft, with a short, weak period of 5 to 9 seconds. The combined energy is weak, sitting between 26 and 73 (just a fizzle). The wind is consistently cross-onshore from the NW, making it choppy and bumpy. It’s not really surfable, it’s more of a hassle. There’s a brief window on Wednesday morning the 15th with glassy conditions and a tiny 1ft WNW swell, but it’s just too small to get excited about.

We hit a bit of a lull in energy before things ramp up. On Sunday the 19th, in the afternoon, we see the first real bump in energy reaching 122 (moderate energy), but it’s still a messy 3ft NW windswell with a 7-second period and cross-onshore winds. It’s not clean.

Now, the real shift happens around the end of the first week and into the second. From Saturday the 25th of July, the swell starts to push up. We get a 4ft NW swell on Saturday morning, with the energy jumping to 197 (moderate). Still, the wind is cross-shore, so it’s a bit bumpy. The biggest push comes Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, the 25th and 26th. Saturday afternoon shows a 6ft NW swell with a 7-second period and a combined energy of 340 (strong). The problem is the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 19 mph, making it lumpy. That’s getting into expert territory size-wise, but the chop will be ugly. Sunday morning the 26th is very similar: 5ft NW swell, 8-second period, 346 energy (strong), but with a moderate cross-shore wind. It’s a lot of water moving, but it’s not going to be the clean, peeling waves we want.

The standout? If I had to pick one, it’s Saturday the 25th of July, specifically the morning. The swell is 4ft from the NW, and the wind is cross-shore at 12 mph, which is the cleanest we’ll see for that size. The energy is moderate (197) and the period is short (6 seconds), so it’ll be a bit lumpy, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. For anyone who’s intermediate and above, that’s your window. Beginners should sit this one out.

The last few days, from the 27th to the 30th, the swell drops back down to 1ft to 4ft, but the wind stays onshore or cross-shore, keeping it choppy and unappealing. The water temp is about average for this time of year, no real anomalies to report.

Overall, it’s a pretty bleak outlook. The combination of onshore winds and short-period windswell means the surf is going to be poor for the entire 16-day window. The only real power comes in on the 25th and 26th, but it’s messy. If you’re a kite surfer, that Saturday and Sunday with the strong cross-onshore winds and 5ft+ lumps might actually look interesting, but for paddle surfing, this is a hard pass.

Rusty

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