Cogumelo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for our local stretch.

Right off the bat, the next few days are a write-off. We’ve got a solid pulse of swell through Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th, with waves in the 6 ft to 7 ft range, but the wind is a mess – cross and cross-onshore, blowing 12 to 16 mph. That’s going to chop it up bad. The combined energy is moderate to strong (1054 on Sunday morning, dropping to 476 by Monday), but the quality is just not there. You’d be fighting a losing battle.

Tuesday the 25th morning sees the swell drop to 5 ft, but the wind swings light onshore from the WSW at only 3 mph. The period is a short, weak 7 seconds, and the energy is low (226), so it’s marginal at best. Still, if you’re desperate, it might be the least ugly option before a long flat spell.

From Wednesday the 26th through Thursday the 27th, the swell bottoms out. We’re looking at 3 ft to 4 ft, with short-period windswell and mostly cross-onshore breezes. The combined energy is weak to low (51 to 205). Honestly, it’s not worth paddling out.

Now, Friday the 28th morning is the first real standout in this forecast. The swell bumps up to 7 ft from the NW, with a nice 11-second period (groundswell). The combined energy is strong (928). The wind is from the north at 9 mph, holding it cross-shore, which should keep things reasonably clean. This is the best window we’ve got. Just be aware that the afternoon turns choppy as the wind picks up to 16 mph onshore, so get on it early. The water is sitting at 68°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year.

Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th see a steady drop-off. Saturday morning has 5 ft NW swell with a 10-second period, and light north winds keeping it cross-shore (energy 527). It’s surfable, but the energy is fading. Sunday is small again, only 2 ft.

Then we hit a real dry spell. From Monday the 31st of August all the way through to Saturday the 6th of September, the swell is tiny, mostly 2 ft to 5 ft, with short periods and mostly cross-onshore or onshore winds. There are a few moments of glassy or clean conditions on the 1st of September and the 5th of September, but with waves barely knee-high and very weak energy (63 to 86), it’s really just a chance to sit on your board and enjoy the sun.

Finally, on Monday the 7th of September, we get a long-range promise. The morning shows a 5 ft NW swell with a very long 13-second period, and the combined energy is massive (1633). The wind is light north at 9 mph, holding cross-shore. That’s a serious groundswell, and it’s got potential. The only catch is the period is so long (over 15 seconds is very long, and 13 seconds is getting up there) that it might be a bit too straight for a beach break, but if it lines up, it could be worth the wait. The afternoon turns choppy again, so again, morning is the call.

So, the pick of the forecast is clear: Friday the 28th of August morning. That’s the one to circle. The 7th of September is a promising, but less certain, long-range option.

Rusty out.

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