Cogumelo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a patchy 16-day window ahead at Cogumelo. There’s no surf worth paddling for right now, and we’ll hit a dry spell through the first few days. The only real standout comes later in the second week – a morning that’s got me properly fired up. Let’s walk through it.

The water temp is sitting at 69°, which is about average for this time of year – nothing to write home about, just your standard September feel.

Monday morning (7th) kicks off with a 5ft WNW swell at 13 seconds – a proper groundswell, but the cross conditions and moderate energy (729) leave it feeling ordinary. Surfless and choppy, not worth a look. Monday afternoon gets worse: 5ft, cross-on NW wind, total chop. Tuesday (8th) sees the swell drop to 4ft and the period shorten to 10 seconds – energy’s down to 324, light cross wind gives it a ripple, but it’s marginal at best. Wednesday (9th) is a write-off: morning has 2ft NW with cross-chop, afternoon jumps to 5ft but period’s a miserable 6 seconds, and 19 mph NW wind makes it lumpy.

Thursday (10th) offers 5ft again but still cross, with 383 energy – still not clean. Friday (11th) morning has a flicker: 4ft NW, 7 seconds, glassy off the north wind with clean conditions, but it’s weak (136 energy). Saturday (12th) morning goes glassy with 3ft, dead clean but tiny (73 energy). Sunday (13th) morning repeats the glassy 3ft, a bit more energy (103) but still ordinary.

Here’s where the light at the end of the tunnel gets real. Monday 14th September morning – this is the standout. Glassy, no wind, a 4ft NW groundswell with a 12-second period (405 energy), and the forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s a solid session for the intermediate crew. The swell direction (WNW-to-NW) lines up close to the optimum SW, so the break should handle it nicely. Crowds are possible, but with decent consistency and clean glass, you’ll get your waves.

Tuesday (15th) morning stays glassy with a 4ft NW at 9 seconds – still surfable but ordinary. Then Wednesday 16th September morning is the other standout: 7ft of NW swell, 10-second period, glassy, with very good surf conditions and big energy (758). This is powerful, clean, and for experienced surfers – a proper session. The afternoon pushes 8ft but goes cross-on and messy. Thursday 17th morning sees 10ft NW at 10 seconds – that’s too big for this break, expert-only and even then it’s pushing it.

From Friday 18th onward, it all falls apart – tiny swell, poor conditions, cross-onshore winds, and almost no energy. We’re looking at a blank run from the 18th through the end of the 16 days. So don’t wait around – pencil in Monday 14th morning and Wednesday 16th morning, and keep an eye on the wind shifts.

Rusty.

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