Beliche Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Grab a coffee, let's see what we've got for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, looking at this stretch, it’s a frustrating one for paddle surfing. The entire 16-day window is almost a total write-off according to the numbers. The first week and a half is just tiny, weak dribble, and then when the swell finally shows up with some guts, the wind goes absolutely ballistic. There are no standouts worth paddling out for. The whole period is a long, flat-to-hostile run.

We kick off from Wednesday, July 8th with nothing to write home about. For days, we are looking at swell heights of 0.7 ft to 2 ft, all with weak combined swell energy (12 to 76). The water at Beliche is 70°, which is about average for the time of year. That tiny, short-period swell is just not enough to push over the bank. This continues right through until Sunday, July 12th. On the morning of the 12th, we get a tiny pulse of energy climbing to 145, but with only 2 ft swell, it’s still surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.

From Monday, July 13th through to Friday, July 17th, it’s more of the same punishment. Sizewise, it’s a flat spell with nothing breaking properly. The combined energy stays in the weak to low-moderate range.

Now, here’s where it gets cruel. From Friday, July 17th onward, the swell actually starts to build. We get a 3 ft swell on Friday morning with moderate energy (114), but that comes with strong offshore winds of 30 km/h. By Saturday, July 18th, the swell bumps to 5 ft with energy at 139, but the wind is howling at 35-40 km/h. It is clean, but it'll be a battle just to get out, and the period is a very short 6 seconds, so it’ll be a bumpy, frustrating mess.

The real kicker is the final week. Starting Sunday, July 19th, the swell pumps up to 6 ft on the morning and 7 ft in the afternoon, with combined energy skyrocketing to 304 and then 395. This is a significant rise, but the winds are a relentless 40 km/h offshore. By Monday, July 20th, we are looking at 8 ft to 8 ft swell with very strong wave energy (622 and 759). This is expert-only territory for sure, but the strong offshore winds at 40 km/h make it an absolute battle. It is clean, but it's a paddle fight, and with a short period of only 8 seconds, it’s going to be a close-out peaky mess or just heaving sections. The last few days from July 21st to 23rd keep that size (6 ft to 7 ft) and energy (475 to 766), but it's the same story: brutal offshore winds making it look like a white-knuckle struggle rather than a fun session. For a beach and point break like Beliche, with this much swell and this much wind, the setup honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. This is just one of those flat-to-frantic runs where the forecasts will either change or you find a different sport.

Rusty, signing off.

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