Beliche Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's break down what's on offer for our local stretch. The next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag, so we’ve got to take the good with the... well, the frustrating.

First thing you’ll notice is that water temp is sitting around 68°, which is about 3°F colder than we’d expect for this time of year. That’s a bit of a sting, so you’ll want a decent spring suit.

The pattern ahead is a long, drawn-out run of mediocre conditions. For days on end, we’ve got decent swell sizes, often in the 3ft to 6ft range with plenty of energy in the water (you’re looking at combined energy values mostly between 130 and 700, so moderate to strong stuff), and a consistent northwest direction that matches what this spot likes. The kicker is that throughout the first week, the wind is howling out of the north and north-northwest at 15 to 25 mph. While that is technically offshore, it’s so strong it’s going to rip the face off the wave and make paddling a real battle. 25 mph wind is a tough paddle. You’ll get a few clean faces on Saturday the 29th with that 6ft NW swell at 10 seconds, but it’s sketchy. A few sessions around this time might be surfable if you’re an absolute local nutter, but for most of us, it’s a pass.

Given the solid swell, rough conditions, and the break being a beach and point setup, this stretch is going to be far more appealing to the kite surfers than a paddle surfer. The wind and wave power is there for them; for us, it’s just a fight.

The real standout, if you can wait, is a very specific window. Monday the 7th of September is the one to circle on the calendar. The morning will see a solid 5ft pulse from the NNW at 7 seconds, but the wind drops right back to a gentle 9 mph north-northwest offshore. That is going to be clean, punchy, and rideable. Then the afternoon gets even better: a smaller 3ft set from the west-northwest, but with a juicy 13-second period and the wind dropping to a glassy 6 mph offshore. That’s long-period groundswell energy (combined energy of 606) with almost no wind. That’s a session for the connoisseur. Just keep in mind that long-period swell like that can be a bit straight at beach breaks – it will want to run, so look for the points.

After that, the forecast gets flaky again. We get a few more days of adequate but ordinary conditions, with small windows of clean surf, but nothing that screams "drop everything."

In the second week, things get sloppy and inconsistent. The swell drops off a cliff, and winds start coming from the east and southeast, putting us in a cross-to-cross-onshore chop. We do get a couple of pulses of long-period WNW groundswell (14-15 second periods) on Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th, with light winds. Friday the 11th morning has a 3ft WNW swell with a 15-second period and light cross-shore winds – that’s a sneaky good morning for a clean, long wall if you can line it up. But the energy is moderate, and it’s very far out. Let’s call it a promising but not certain bonus.

Overall, this is a tough run. The first week is all about raw power and brutal wind. The second week is lighter but flatter and crossed up. Don’t hold your breath for the first few days. The best session of the entire outlook is that Monday the 7th of September, with the morning or the glassy afternoon window being your best bet by a country mile.

Rusty.

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