Beliche Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's cut the chatter and look at the surf ahead for our coast. The short version is this: the next week and a half is going to test your patience. We’ve got a long, flat, and messy run of small, weak waves with poor winds for the most part. But hang tight, because the back half of this forecast window is where things get properly interesting. There’s a serious pulse of NW groundswell lining up, and if it connects, we’re in for a proper session.

The early outlook is grim. From the 15th through to the 28th, we’re looking at a whole lot of nothing special. Swell heights will be struggling, mostly in the 1.6ft to 5.5ft range, with the energy being weak to moderate at best (energy values mostly between 58 and 500). The wind is the real killer here, though. For the first few days, it’s cross-onshore or just messy, making for choppy, poor conditions. There's a brief window on the morning of the 21st with a moderate offshore (NNW) and clean waves at 3.6ft, but it's not enough to get excited about. The 22nd and 23rd have some clean surfaces but the swell is still weak and short-period, just not worth the paddle.

There’s a little bump around the 24th and 25th, with chest-high swell (5.2ft - 5.6ft) and clean conditions, but the short, 8-second period means it's going to be a bit crumbly and without much push. The 29th is when the alarm bells should start ringing. We finally see a real jump in size and energy. The energy readings go from weak to strong very quickly (799 on the 29th morning), and the swell is building from the NW. By the afternoon of the 29th, we're looking at 9.8ft of swell with the energy climbing into the very strong range (1197). This is a proper swell.

The standout of the whole period, though, is the morning of the 30th. The swell is a solid 9.8ft from the NW, with a longer period of 10 seconds, and the energy readings are at a massive 1686. That's a lot of moving water. The winds are light (9 mph) and cross-off, which should keep it reasonably clean. This is the one to circle on the calendar. At this size, it's strictly for experienced surfers – this is not a day for the learners. The water temperature is running about two and a half degrees Fahrenheit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want the full wetsuit.

So, the plan is simple: skip the groveling sessions this week. Wait for that big pulse on the 29th and 30th. It’s looking like the real deal, though we’re still a week out, so let’s keep our fingers crossed on the winds. See you in the water.

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