PKs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are looking a bit tricky, to be honest. The first week is pretty flat and small, with the only real surf not kicking in until the very end of the month. We'll have a bit of a quiet spell before the ocean wakes up.

Right now, and through the start of next week, the swell is small and disorganized. We’ve got a mix of short-period windswell and some longer-period energy that just doesn’t have much size behind it. It’s that classic case of “plenty of lines on the chart, nothing doing on the beach.” The surf is basically super inconsistent and on the small side, often around `1ft` to `2ft`. The energy is weak, even when the direction is kind of okay. It’s not a great time to be a beginner, simply because the waves are so few and far between. The wind is cross-offshore from the ENE, which is fine, but it just doesn’t matter when there’s nothing to push.

We’ll see a slight bump in wind speed from the 23rd to the 25th, but it won’t help. The swell drops off to `2ft` and `2ft` with periods of around 13 to 16 seconds. That long-period stuff is running but with no power behind it. The energy is weak, with values like (240) and (205), and it just fizzles out. This stretch is best used for a paddle or a swim.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The surf finally wakes up around Wednesday the 26th and into the beginning of September. We’ve got a pulse of easterly windswell coming in that will bring some size, but it’s a messy, short-period swell at 8 seconds. This is not a clean, groomed groundswell, this is the ocean getting churned up. The size builds from around `7ft` on the Wednesday morning to `8ft` by Friday afternoon, and the energy readings jump way up into the (727) to (1092) range – that’s strong.

But here’s the catch for a reef break like P-Ks on the North Shore: this east swell is short-period and pretty raw. It’s going to be bumpy. The wind holds onshore/cross-offshore from the ENE at 25 km/h. With that size and period, plus the wind, it’s going to be a mess. It might be more interesting for the kite crew than for us paddle surfers. This is definitely expert territory, if anything is even makeable. The swell direction being from the E matches what the spot likes, but the short period will make it sectiony and tough. This is another “for experts only” call, and a big one at that.

The standout, if you can call it that, looks to be Friday the 28th afternoon and into Saturday the 29th. It’s still short-period and big, with the swell at `8ft` and `8ft` from the east. The energy is still strong (1092). It’s the best of a bad bunch because the wind is still cross-offshore, but the tide might be a saving grace. It’s still going to be heavy on the reef and full of current. The longer-period south swell that shows up in the background on Thursday and Friday afternoons is a tease – it has the period (16-19 seconds) but it’s tiny, at `2ft` to `3ft`, and won’t break through the east storm surf.

After that, it backs off quickly. Sunday the 30th still has some energy at `6ft` to `6ft`, but by Monday the 31st, it’s already fading fast, dropping to `3ft` and less. The beginning of September looks flat again with weak energy (54) and no real swell. It’s looking like a rough run, with the only real size being that short-period, wind-blown east swell.

So, if you're an expert and want to test your mettle on a sketchy, blown-out day, the 28th and 29th look like your window. For everyone else, you might want to wait for the next week or so to see if something better comes along. The windows are small, and the wind is making it tough.

That’s it from me. Keep your eyes on the ocean.

Rusty

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