PKs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about this 16-day window for PKs.

Gotta be straight with you – the first week is a bit of a grind. We’ve got a couple of early pulses of east swell, but they’re getting hammered by a strong cross-offshore breeze from the ENE. The water’s running about average for this time of year, nothing wild. The real hope is further out.

Thursday, July 9th and Friday, July 10th
We see a 6 ft east swell on Thursday morning, but it’s short-period (8 seconds) and the wind is a stiff 16 mph cross-off. That’s a messy combo. The energy is moderate (621), but the quality just isn’t there for a proper paddle session. By Friday, the swell hangs around 6 ft from the east, but the period drops to 7 seconds, and the wind picks up to 19 mph. The wave energy is still moderate (446-461), but it’s bumpy and won’t hold shape. It’s a pass.

Saturday, July 11th
Another 6 ft east swell, still short-period (8 seconds), and that same 19 mph ENE wind. Moderate energy (676), but the surface is going to be a mess. The afternoon swings to a tiny 2 ft south groundswell with a very long 18-second period, but that’s too small to do anything with on a reef.

Sunday, July 12th through Tuesday, July 14th
A long-period south-west groundswell fills in, but it’s small – around 2 ft to 3 ft. The period is solid (14-16 seconds), but the energy is moderate (342-566). The problem is we’re still stuck with that cross-off wind. The waves will be clean-looking but weak and won’t have enough push for a proper ride. Few options here.

Wednesday, July 15th to Thursday, July 16th
More of the same. Small west swell, 3 ft, long period (15 seconds), moderate energy (421-514). Still cross-off wind. The consistency is there, but the size is lacking. It’s a waiting game.

Friday, July 17th
A brief spike in the morning – 6 ft from the east, but it’s short period (7 seconds) and the wind hasn’t let up. Moderate to strong energy (687), but it’s going to be a crumbly, wind-affected mess. Not worth the paddle.

Saturday, July 18th to Sunday, July 19th
A bit of a lull Saturday, then Sunday morning we get a solid 8 ft east swell with a 9-second period. The energy jumps to 1009 – strong. The wind is still cross-off from the ENE at 16 mph, but the wave size is there. This is a big, powerful swell, but it’s going to be challenging with that wind. The afternoon drops to 7 ft, energy still strong (822). For experienced surfers, this could be a goer despite the wind, but it’s not clean.

Monday, July 20th
The swell drops back to 2 ft-3 ft, but the energy is still moderate (474-707). The wind is unchanged. Another day of small, clean, but weak surf.

The Standout Window: Tuesday, July 21st
This is the one to circle on the calendar. Tuesday morning brings a 4 ft east swell, but the period jumps to 17 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The wind drops slightly to 12 mph, still cross-off, but the energy is strong (1222). This is the best combination of size, period, and energy in the whole outlook. The waves will have real grunt and shape, and the longer gaps between sets will make it easier to get out. The afternoon is similar, 4 ft, 16-second period, energy 1008. This is the standout. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

Wednesday, July 22nd onward
The energy backs off to 670 on Wednesday morning with a 3 ft east swell, 14-second period. Still cross-off wind. After that, the swell fades into small, short-period south swells through the 24th, with energy dropping to 153. The window closes.

Overall
The first week is a write-off due to persistent wind. The best bet is Tuesday, July 21st, when that long-period east groundswell lines up. The energy is strong (1222), and the long period will give the reef at PKs some real shape. It’s a long-range call, so it’s promising but not locked in. For the rest, it’s a lot of waiting and checking the wind. If the ENE ever shifts, that first week of east swell could cook, but as it sits, it’s frustrating.

Rusty.

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