PKs Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – the first few days are looking pretty average. The south swell is trying to push through at PKs, but that cross-off breeze from the ENE is a solid 16 mph, making things a bit lumpy. The water is a warm 81°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there. The swell energy is moderate for Friday afternoon (840), but it’s not quite there yet.

Saturday morning holds a bit more oomph with the swell energy climbing to 1246, but that same wind is still hanging around. It’s a cross-off, so the waves will be clean-ish, but nothing to get too excited about. The swell is around 5 ft from the south, with a decent 12-second period. The afternoon picks up a bit more size at 6 ft from the east, and the energy jumps to 2056, which is getting into the moderate-to-strong range, but again, the wind is the limiting factor.

Now, Sunday morning (September 6th) is more of the same: 6 ft east swell, 1,975 energy, and that same 16 mph cross-off. It’s clean, but it’s not pristine. The crowd factor at PKs is “sometimes,” so you might bump into a few others, but it’s unlikely to be a zoo.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Monday morning (September 7th) sees a jump in the swell size to 8 ft, and the period bumps up to 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell stuff. The energy reads a strong 3096. But the wind is still cross-off at 16 mph from the east. The real warning bell is Monday afternoon: the swell is forecast to hit 16 ft from the SSW with a 15-second period, but the wind shifts to 25 mph from the ESE, creating a messy, cross-shore chop. That’s ugly, and honestly, better suited for a kite than a paddle. The energy kicks up to 12540, which is very strong, but the conditions are poor.

Tuesday (September 8th) is a washout. The wind goes onshore from the SSW, the swell drops back to 7 ft with a short 9-second period, and the energy is only 915. Not worth paddling out for.

We hit a dry spell from Wednesday (September 9th) through to the end of the following week. The swell is small, mostly under 3 ft, and the periods are all over the place. The wind is a constant cross-off, but the energy is low (mostly under 500). It’s a gap of about 10 days of very marginal to poor conditions.

The standout: The best bet in this whole 16-day window is actually the very end of the outlook. Look at Saturday morning, September 19th. The swell is 4 ft from the SSW with a 16-second period, which is a nice long-period groundswell. The energy is a solid 578 (moderate), but the wind is the real winner here – a light 9 mph from the east, which is cross-off, keeping things clean. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” For a reef break like PKs, this long-period swell (over 15 seconds) will wrap in nicely and create some proper lines. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so it could be a bit busy, but that’s the price for clean waves. For a beginner spot, 4 ft is totally manageable. That’s the one to circle on the calendar.

Rusty.

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