Ogmore-by-Sea Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the forecast for this stretch is a tough one. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window, but the first two weeks are basically a write-off for any decent paddle. You’ll be waiting a long time before things even start to look interesting.

From Friday the 7th right through to the end of the week starting the 18th, it’s a long, flat, and messy stretch. The swell is tiny, often under 2 ft, and what little energy there is gets chopped up by onshore and cross-onshore winds. The combined swell energy is weak, barely cracking double digits for most of that time (values like 4, 9, 5, 9). Even when the wind drops to glassy on the morning of Monday the 10th, the swell is only 0.7 ft – you’d be floating more than riding. There’s a few moments of cross-offshore wind on the 11th and 15th, but again, the swell is just too small to justify a paddle. This is a blank run for the area; it’s honestly not unusual for Ogmore to go quiet like this.

There is a flicker of life around the 16th, but it’s not for the faint-hearted. The morning of Sunday the 16th sees a bump up to 3 ft from the west, with a short period of 7 seconds and light onshore wind. The combined energy jumps to 162 (moderate). It’s still poor surf conditions according to the data, and the wind is on it, so it’s not a clean option. The afternoon gets a little bigger, 4 ft, but it’s choppy and cross-onshore.

The real standout, and the only one worth marking on your calendar, is the morning of Friday the 21st of August. That’s over two weeks away, so treat it as promising but not locked in. We see a 5 ft swell from the southwest, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy hits 287 (moderate to strong). This is the biggest swell in the whole forecast. The catch? The wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore, making it lumpy. The afternoon is even bigger at 5 ft, but again with that same fresh, lumpy cross-onshore wind. For a sheltered river break like Ogmore-by-Sea, that’s a lot of energy and a lot of wind. It’s likely too big for beginners, and with that wind, it’s going to be more of a battle than a cruise. If you’re an expert looking for some power, it’s the only real window of opportunity, but be prepared for a workout.

The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

So, to sum it up: a long, flat gap, then one big, windy window late in the game. Keep an eye on the forecasts for the 21st, but don’t hold your breath for the rest.

- Rusty

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