Ogmore-by-Sea Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you about the next couple of weeks. It's a tough stretch for the saltwater crew, and I’m not gonna sugarcoat it. We’ve got a long, flat, and bumpy run ahead, so if you’re keen for a paddle, you’re going to need to pick your moments very carefully.

The only spot with any real promise in this window is Ogmore-by-Sea, but even that’s a long shot for most of it. The forecast is a wasteland of small, short-period swell and onshore winds. The water is a notable 70°F, which is a massive 9°F warmer than normal for this time of year—that’s a real anomaly, a proper warm spell, but it’s not going to make the waves any better.

The first week is basically a write-off. From Thursday the 6th through Saturday the 16th, we're looking at knee-high slop at best. The swell is tiny, mostly under 3ft, with periods of 5-10 seconds, and the wind is all over the shop—mostly onshore or cross-onshore. The energy readings are weak, often in the low double digits or even single digits, like 64 on Thursday morning and just 7 on Friday. It’s choppy, messy, and just not worth suiting up for. There’s a small pulse of energy around the 13th and 14th, with the swell creeping up to 3ft and energy hitting 155, but the wind stays cross-onshore, so it’ll be lumpy and uninviting. Don't get your hopes up.

Now, there is one tiny glimmer, and I mean a tiny one. On Monday the 17th, early in the morning, we finally get a break in the weather. The wind drops out completely, going glassy, and the swell is a clean 3ft from the WSW with an 8-second period. The energy reading is 127, which is the best we’ll see. This is the one true standout in the whole 16 days. It’s still not big, but it’ll be the cleanest surf we’ve had. Ogmore is a river mouth, so it’s sheltered and can handle a bit of direction, and this WSW swell is right in its wheelhouse. The crowd factor is a concern, as it’s “often” busy, and it’s an inconsistent break, so don’t expect perfection. But for a couple of hours at dawn, this is your window. After that, the wind swings onshore by the afternoon and it’s back to square one.

The rest of the second week, from the 18th onwards, is pretty bleak. The swell drops right back down to 1ft and less, with energy readings in the teens and single digits. The wind is either onshore or light and variable, but there’s just no power in the water. It’s a flat spell, plain and simple. The 20th and 21st see the wind really pick up, hitting 22 mph from the WSW and WNW, but the swell is only 0.7ft. That’s not surf, that’s just a windy lake. If you’re a kite surfer, that might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a bust.

So here’s the bottom line: if you’re desperate, pencil in the early morning of Monday the 17th at Ogmore. It’s your only real shot at anything clean. The rest of the time, you might be better off finding something else to do. The setup is too weak and bumpy for any decent paddle surfing. It can’t stay this poor for long, and forecasts do change, but as it stands right now, this is a tough one.

Stay salty.

Rusty.

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