Ogmore-by-Sea Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what Ogmore-by-Sea has in store.

Honestly, this is a tough one. The entire 16-day window is a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. We’re looking at a solid two-week stretch with nothing worth suiting up for. The pattern is locked in: small, weak swell combined with messy onshore or cross-onshore wind. It’s one of those blank runs that just feels normal for this area, so don’t be surprised if it stays poor for a while.

Kicking off on Friday the 11th and right through Saturday the 12th, we’ve got a bit of waist-high swell around 3 ft to 5 ft from the WSW, but the period is short – only 6 to 9 seconds – and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore. The water temp is a notable 67°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year (a 6° anomaly), so that’s a weird one, but it won’t help the waves. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate (around 140 to 181), and the surf is just choppy and poor.

This same rubbish pattern holds through the middle of the month. Sunday the 13th sees a slight spike in energy (319) from a 10-second W swell, but it’s still onshore and messy with 12 mph winds. Monday the 14th drops off again. Tuesday and Wednesday the 15th and 16th are more of the same: 3 ft to 4 ft, short period, lumpy, cross-onshore junk. Not a single standout day.

Towards the end of the third week, around Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th, the swell fades even more – below 2 ft – with very weak energy (under 40). Still onshore or cross-onshore flow. It’s barely worth a glance.

There is a brief flicker on Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th of September. Finally, some clean conditions with glassy or cross-offshore winds from the SE and E, but the swell is tiny: 2 ft to 3 ft, short period, with combined energy only up to 102. It might be glassy and look pretty, but there’s just not enough push to ride. For a longboard or a foiler, maybe, but for a standard shortboard? Forget it.

After the 20th, it’s all downhill again into the final week with tiny swell, strong winds, and even a few rainy days. By Wednesday the 23rd, we get a glimpse of a 14-second period groundswell, but it’s only 0.7 ft. That’s just a long-period ripple. Not rideable.

So here’s the bottom line: there are zero good surf options in this entire 16-day forecast for Ogmore-by-Sea. If you’re desperate, the cleanest-looking windows are Sunday the 20th, but you’d be scratching for anything rideable. Otherwise, this is a classic area lull. The setup looks far more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer for most of this period, given the strong onshore winds and weak swell. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a stay-dry kind of forecast.

Rusty.

Read more