Ogmore-by-Sea Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – we’re looking at a pretty grim 16-day window for Ogmore-by-Sea. The river mouth setup is sheltered and inconsistent at the best of times, and this stretch is going to be a real test of patience. There’s a long, flat spell to start, and even when the swell tries to show up, the conditions just aren’t cooperating. The water temp is a notable 64°F with an anomaly of 6°F – that’s much warmer than normal for this time of year, which is a strange bonus, but it won’t save the surf.

We kick off on Thursday 2nd July afternoon with a 4ft swell from the WSW, but it’s a short-period 8 seconds and the cross-onshore wind from the NW at 12 mph is making a mess. The combined wave energy is moderate at 151, but the “poor surf conditions” label says it all – choppy and unrideable.

Friday 3rd and Saturday 4th are just as disappointing. Friday morning has a weak 2ft onshore swell from the WSW at 9 mph, period up to 10 seconds (energy 104), but it’s blown out. Afternoon is similar with 3ft from the W. Saturday morning drops to 2ft, and by afternoon the wind is howling onshore at 19 mph on a 5-second period – that’s a full kite-surfing setup, not a paddle session.

Sunday 5th through to Tuesday 7th is a dead zone. Swell heights barely hit 2ft, periods are short (5-9 seconds), and the wind is never your friend. Energy values drop into the teens and twenties – weak stuff. This is a long, frustrating gap of no real options at all.

Wednesday 8th morning offers a glimpse of hope with glassy conditions (SE 3 mph), but it’s only 1ft at 8 seconds – barely a ripple. The rest of that day is light cross-onshore and tiny. Thursday 9th and Friday 10th see some clean offshore winds kicking in from the ENE and east (12-22 mph), but with swell at just 0.7ft it’s flat. The energy is in the single digits. You could walk out at low tide.

The pattern holds through the second week. Saturday 11th to Tuesday 14th: clean wind conditions on some mornings, but the swell is consistently tiny (0.3-2ft). There’s a very long-period 15-second groundswell arriving on Monday 13th morning at 0.3ft – that’s theoretical energy at best. By Monday 13th afternoon, we get a glassy 1ft from the WSW at 13 seconds, energy at 76 – that’s the closest we come to a pulse, but with the river mouth setup and the inconsistency of the break, it’s not enough to get excited about. The rest of the week stays below 2ft, even with some glassy and clean windows.

Honestly, there are no standouts here. No sessions worth paddling out for. The consistent theme is “poor surf conditions” and tiny swell. If you absolutely need to get wet, keep an eye on Monday 13th and Tuesday 14th afternoons – the wind lays off, and the period stretches out, but don’t expect more than ankle-biters. For the rest of it, save your energy. This looks like a long, flat, blown-out run that’s more typical for the area when it goes quiet.

Rusty.

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