Ogmore-by-Sea Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, folks. Rusty here. Let's have a proper look at what's on the cards for Ogmore-by-Sea over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a bit of a slow burner, but we might just get a window or two if we’re patient.

Overall Pattern

The start of the period is a write-off, I’m afraid. We’re looking at a long, frustrating gap with barely a ripple for the first ten days or so. The swell energy is pitifully low – we're talking single digits to just over 100 on the combined energy scale (13 on the Sunday morning, barely 50 on the Monday). The water temperature is a whopping 69°F, which is 8°F warmer than normal for the time of year – that's really unusual, a proper summer anomaly. But that's the only highlight early on. The wind is a mess, mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the wave comment is universally "poor surf conditions". It’s a tough stretch. A few mornings, like the 2nd afternoon and the 13th afternoon, turn glassy or clean, but with only 0.7ft to 2ft of weak, short-period windswell, it’s just not worth paddling out. The river mouth setup is sheltered, so it really needs a proper push from the SW to wake up.

The Long Wait

This blank run stretches all the way from the 2nd of August right through until the morning of the 14th. There’s just nothing doing. On the 5th, the swell bumps up to 4ft with a combined energy of 186, but a strong breeze from the west is hammering it, making it a messy, cross-onshore disaster. Not for us. The 8th of August afternoon shows a 5ft swell and energy of 160, but again, onshore wind ruins it. It’s frustrating to watch the swell charts tease you with a bit of height only to have the wind shred it.

Finally, A Glimmer of Hope (14th August Onwards)

Things start to look a little more promising around the 14th of August. The Friday morning sees a 3ft swell from the west, with a combined energy of 81. It’s still only a 6-second period, so it’s not powerful, but the wind is a gentle offshore from the ESE. That’s the key. Clean conditions. The guidance says "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions", and that’s about right – it’s a 1/10, but it’s the best we’ve seen in two weeks. If you’re desperate, it’s your first chance.

The Best of the Bunch (15th August)

Now, the standout, and it's still a modest one. The Saturday, the 15th of August, is where I’d point you. The morning shows a 3ft west swell, and the wind is a clean offshore from the east. By the afternoon, the swell pushes up to 4ft from the west, with a combined energy of 128. The wind swings to a light ENE, still offshore, keeping the surface clean. It’s a river break, and a long-period groundswell this is not (only 7 seconds), so it won’t be offering those long, waiting walls. But for Ogmore, this is your window. It’s inconsistent, so don’t expect non-stop action, and it can get crowded here *often*, especially when there’s finally a wave. The optimum direction is SW, and we’re getting a straight W swell, which is close enough. This is the one. It’s not a classic, but it’s clean, it’s surfable, and it’s our best shot. The Sunday morning (16th) also has offshore wind but the swell drops back to 2ft, so Saturday afternoon is the pick.

So, to sum it up: ten days of nothing, then a couple of small, clean days with the 15th of August offering the best chance for a few knee-to-waist high waves with clean faces. Keep your expectations in check, but don't leave the board at home that weekend.

Rusty.

Read more