Ogmore-by-Sea Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a coffee and let’s have a proper look at the Ogmore-by-Sea forecast, because honestly, it’s a tough one. This is a river mouth break that’s sheltered in a way that makes it fussy, and it’s been a right struggle to find a window that works. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing wild there.

We start off with a proper flat spell. From Thursday the 3rd all the way through the first weekend, it’s a write-off. We’ve got a mix of onshore winds, lumpy cross-onshore junk, and swell that’s either too small, too weak, or both. The combined wave energy is paltry, barely cracking 100 (just 180 at best early on) and often way below. You’re looking at a solid stretch of days with no real surf to get excited about. It’s poor quality and not worth a paddle.

Monday the 7th kicks up a bit, with a 5ft swell from the WSW, but the wind is a fresh cross-onshore, and it’s choppy. The combined energy jumps to 540 which sounds moderate, but it’s let down by that messy wind. Not a day for the log, but maybe a grovel session if you're desperate. Tuesday the 8th actually pushes the swell up to 6ft from the WSW, which is getting solid, but the wind is a strong breeze from the west, making it a strong cross-onshore and messy. The combined energy is 572, and with that size, it’s above the beginner sweet spot and into more experienced territory, but the conditions are pretty average. Not the clean, groomed wave you’d want.

There’s a flicker on Friday the 11th. The morning shows a 5ft W/SW swell with a cross wind from the NNW (9 mph). The combined energy is a solid 709 – that’s moderate to strong, and the wind description is a gentle cross-shore with slight cross-chop. By the afternoon, the score nudges up to a 1, meaning it’s marginal. The swell holds at 5ft and the period is 9 seconds. It’s not classic, but with that wind angle being more cross than onshore, it’s the closest thing to a session in the whole outlook. It’s still above 5ft so it’s not for beginners. You’d need to be comfortable in punchy river mouth waves. Crowds are possible at Ogmore when it’s breaking, so don’t expect solitude.

After that, it’s back to a long, sad run of tiny, weak, and often choppy days right through to the 18th. The combined energy drops off a cliff, mostly under 100. On Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th there are glassy mornings, but the swell is only 2ft to 2ft. You’d be fighting for a ripple. By Friday the 18th, it’s 0.7ft with an offshore wind, which is clean but completely flat. It’s a frustrating outlook, to be honest. The only real window is that Friday the 11th, and it’s a gamble on the wind holding. If you’re desperate for foam, that’s your best bet, but don’t set your alarm too early.

Rusty.

Read more