Ogmore-by-Sea Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Ogmore-by-Sea has in store for the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough stretch. We’re looking at a solid run of flat or near-flat conditions that’s gonna test your patience. The first real hope doesn’t show up until mid-July, and even then it’s a whisper.

The pattern is dominated by tiny swell and mostly offshore or cross-off winds, which is a tease. The water temps are about average for the time of year, nothing unusual there. The combined swell energy is almost non-existent, with values sitting in very low double digits or single digits for most of the period (14). This is a quiet spell for the river mouth.

From now through to the 14th of July, it’s basically a write-off. Swell heights are stuck at 0.3 ft to 1.0 ft, and even with glassy or clean conditions, there’s just nothing to ride. The 9th of July morning goes glassy, but on that tiny 1.0 ft, 10-second swell – you’d be scratching. The 10th has some nice glassy windows in the afternoon, but still only 1 ft. It’s a paddling pond, not a surf.

We get a small pulse of energy around the 13th and 14th of July, but the swell is still a pathetic 0.3 ft. The period jumps to 18-19 seconds, which is a very long-period groundswell, but there’s no height at all. The offshore winds (E at 35 km/h, about 22 mph) will make it clean, but you’d struggle to get wet. The combined energy hovers around 14-15 – still weak.

Come the 15th of July, Wednesday morning, there’s a slight uptick. The swell height nudges to 0.7 ft from the WSW with a period of 10 seconds, and combined energy reaches 20. The wind is a strong offshore from the East at 45 km/h (about 28 mph) – "strong offshore and clean but hard to paddle into". That’s the standout window in the whole outlook, but it’s for experts only. The wind is going to be brutal to paddle against, and the swell is still tiny. This is more a test of endurance than a session.

After that, from the 16th onwards, it fades right back down to 0.3 ft and 0.7 ft. The winds go cross-on or onshore, and the energy just drains away. The 20th of July afternoon shows a *2 ft* swell from the West, but with a period of just 3 seconds – that’s pure wind chop, and onshore wind to boot. Not worth a look.

So, what’s the best on offer? It’s the 15th of July Wednesday morning at Ogmore-by-Sea. That 0.7 ft WSW swell with a 10-second period and strong offshore wind is the only thing that resembles a surfable condition, but only if you’re a local who knows how to read the river mouth and can handle the paddle. Crowds are often a problem here, but with conditions this marginal, you might have the place to yourself. For everyone else, this is a long, flat run. It’s a tough one.

Stay patient, the forecasts can always shift.

Rusty.

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