Ogmore-by-Sea Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Ogmore-by-Sea has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. Before we get into it, the water’s sitting at about 69°F, which is a solid 8°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual, so you can probably leave the 5/4 at home.

Right now, and for the next week or so, it’s a pretty grim picture. The wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, often a fresh breeze up to 22 mph, and that’s messing everything up. We’ve got small, short-period swell – mostly under 3 ft from the west or southwest with periods of 5-7 seconds – and the combined swell energy is weak to moderate at best, mostly under 200. The forecast calls it “poor surf conditions” right through. The only tiny bright spot might be the Tuesday morning, July 28 when the wind drops to a light breeze from the west-southwest (6 mph) and it’s onshore, but with a paltry 2 ft, 6-second swell and combined energy of just 25, you’re not getting much more than ankle-biters. Honestly, there are a lot of days with no real surf to recommend.

We do get a small spike around Thursday afternoon, July 30 when the swell bumps up to 4 ft from the west-southwest, period still short at 6 seconds, but the combined energy reaches 112 (moderate) for the first time. Problem is, the wind is blowing onshore at 19 mph from the west, so it’s going to be messy and lumpy – better suited for a kite than a paddleboard.

Now, Friday, July 31 has similar issues: 3 ft cross-onshore chop from the west-northwest, moderate breeze, combined energy of 147 in the morning – but again, the wind kills the quality.

The first week of August looks just as bleak. We’re stuck in a pattern of small, short-period swell (0.7 ft to 3 ft), mostly weak combined energy (under 100 most of the time), and persistent cross-onshore or onshore breezes. Sunday, August 2 has a bit of a tease: a 0.7 ft long-period swell at 11 seconds from the west-southwest, but the energy is only 21 – that’s basically flat with some super long lines that won’t break properly at a river mouth. Monday morning, August 3 offers 2 ft at 9 seconds from the west-southwest (combined energy 58) with light onshore wind, but still not surfable.

The next real increase comes around Wednesday, August 5: 4 ft from the west-southwest, 7-second period, combined energy of 160 in the morning. That’s a moderate energy pulse, but again the wind is onshore at 12 mph from the southwest, bringing showers. The afternoon clears but the wind stays cross-onshore at 16 mph. So, still not clean.

Finally, the best day of the whole run looks like Sunday, August 9 – and that’s almost two weeks away, so take it with a pinch of salt for now. The morning is glassy with 3 ft of short-period swell from the west (period only 3 seconds – that’s tiny and weak, combined energy 18). But the afternoon brings a jump: 5 ft from the west, 6-second period, combined energy of 134, and it’s glassy! This is the only time in the whole forecast we see “glassy” conditions and a surfable wave height. The guidance tells me this is a river break – Ogmore-by-Sea – that’s sheltered and inconsistent, but with glassy conditions, any decent 5 ft swell will be clean. It’s still short-period, so it won’t have the power of a groundswell, but on a glassy day, that’s as good as it gets here. The wind is a slight air from the south-southeast in the morning, then a slight air from the west-southwest in the afternoon – both glassy. That’s the standout. Crowds are “often” here, and on a glassy swell like that, expect the banks to be busy.

So to sum up: the next two weeks are mostly a write-off for Ogmore. The only session worth paddling out for is Sunday afternoon, August 9. Everything else is small, short-period, and blown out. The forecast can change, but right now, that’s the one to mark in your calendar.

Rusty.

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