Montanita Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, looking at the local surf for Montanita over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, the models are spitting out a pretty grim picture for paddle surfing. The water is sitting at a very unusual 79°, which is a massive nine degrees warmer than normal for this time of year – feels more like a bath than the Pacific.

The good news stops there. We’ve got a consistent, but weak, background SW energy rolling in, with combined swell energy values in the middling range (mostly between 174 and 468). The problem is nearly every window is plagued by a cross-onshore or light cross-onshore wind. That’s dragging the quality down; the wave comment keeps saying "marginal" or "poor" conditions. For a reef and point setup, you really need that wind to be offshore to hold the shape, but the wind’s coming right off the land most mornings. All this light cross-onshore breeze just puts a chop on the face.

Looking at the first real chance, Thursday afternoon on the 10th, we’ve got a 4ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period and a light offshore W wind. The period is a beauty, but it’s a long-period swell that will peel nicely down the point here. The combined energy is moderate (635). Still, the report tags it as "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," so it’s a gamble.

Friday the 11th drops off to 3ft, and the wind swings to a light SW offshore again, but the wave comment is still "marginal." Saturday morning the 12th is the low point, with just 2ft and a cross-on breeze making it "gentle cross-onshore and fairly choppy." That trend sticks. Swell sizes are tiny, mostly hovering between 1ft and 3ft, with a few spikes in period (like 19 seconds on the 13th morning, or 21 seconds on the 19th morning) but those long-period pulses at a beach break will just suck the energy out and make it fat and straight.

Honestly, there isn’t a true standout window in the entire 16-day stretch. The wind just won’t cooperate, and the swell is too inconsistent in size to build any quality. For this reef and point, with the wind so often cross-onshore and the swell so low, it’s looking a lot more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. We’re looking at a long, bleak run. Forecasts can always flip, but as it stands, I’d be keeping the board in the bag.

Rusty.

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