Montanita Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you – this stretch isn’t firing right now, and it’s going to take a while to get going. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the first week and a half is pretty much a write-off for any decent waves. There’s a big gap of nothing but poor to marginal conditions from Tuesday the 4th right through to around Wednesday the 13th. The good news is there’s a bit of a pulse building late in the second week, so don’t write the whole run off just yet.

For the first week, the story is tiny, weak swell and messy wind. Montanita (a reef and point setup) is the only spot on the board, but it’s just not happening. Tuesday morning the 4th sees a tiny 2ft SW swell with a period of 12 seconds, but it’s cross-on from the SW at 6 mph, making for poor surf with weak wave energy (135). The water’s a balmy 79°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a solid 9° above average, so you’ll be in boardies. That pattern sticks around all week: Wednesday the 5th is 2ft SW, cross-on again, with light wind and 160 energy – still poor. Thursday the 6th bumps to 2ft SW, but it’s still marginal with a 13-second period and only 350 energy, and the cross-on breeze keeps things messy. Friday the 7th shows a little more energy (489 morning, 546 afternoon) and a longer 16-second period, but the swell’s only 3ft to 3ft, and the wind is onshore from the WSW at 6 mph – just marginal surf at best. Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th drop back to poor conditions with 2ft to 3ft and gentle cross-onshore breezes. Monday the 10th sees a 2ft SW swell with a 15-second period and 434 energy, but it’s still marginal and the wind is cross-on. Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th are more of the same – poor, tiny, and onshore. Thursday morning the 13th finally shows a glimmer: a 1ft WSW swell with a 17-second period and 220 energy, but it’s still only marginal. Honestly, through all this, the breaks aren’t holding shape, and the cross-onshore wind is killing any chance of clean waves. It’s not even worth paddling out.

Now, the standout. If you’ve got patience, the real window opens up on Friday the 14th of August. That morning we see a jump: 4ft WSW swell, 17-second period, and solid energy at 913 – that’s moderate wave energy building. The wind is onshore from the SW at 6 mph, but it’s light, and the longer period suggests better shaped waves. By Saturday the 15th, we’ve got 4ft WSW swell with a 15-second period and 773 energy, and Sunday the 16th holds at 3ft with 513 energy. The swell direction (WSW) isn’t a perfect match for Montanita’s optimum SW, but it’s close enough, and the long period will really suit this reef and point break – expect clean, lined-up sets with longer gaps between them, making paddling out easier. The wind stays light and onshore, so it won’t be glassy, but it’s manageable. This is the best on offer: Friday the 14th through Sunday the 16th, with Friday morning being the pick of the bunch. The waves are still only in the 3ft to 4ft range, so it’s not big – good for most experienced surfers, but beginners might find it a touch much on the upper end. Crowds at Montanita are often an issue, so expect company if you’re out there.

The second week keeps a similar rhythm. Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th see 3ft to 4ft SW swells with 13-14 second periods and moderate energy (367 to 584), but the wind is cross-on again, so it’s more marginal than clean. Wednesday the 19th is the last day with some promise: 4ft SW swell, 16-second period, and 782 energy, but again cross-on wind. After that, the energy drops off. For the whole period, the water stays warm, and there’s no big storm swell – it’s all long-period groundswell, which is nice for the point but can make beach breaks tricky. If you’re chasing the best, target Friday the 14th morning. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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