Mocambique Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get stuck into this 16-day outlook for Mocambique.

We've got a bit of a slow start, with the first few days pretty much a write-off. The swell is there, sure, but it's accompanied by some nasty wind. That changes as we head into the weekend and the following week, and there are a couple of absolute gems hiding in the long-range forecast.

The water temperature is sitting at 62°, which is a full 5° colder than what we'd normally expect for this time of year. So, you'll want a good thick wetsuit.

Thursday the 2nd is a no-go. Only 3ft of weak, short-period swell from the ENE with cross-shore wind. The combined wave energy is a measly 185. Just a flat, onshore mess. Skip it.

Friday the 3rd is for experts only. We've got a solid 10ft of S swell slamming in, but it's accompanied by a strong 19 mph cross-onshore wind. The combined energy is a hefty 1035, but the lumpy, cross-onshore conditions make it horrible for paddle surfing. The afternoon drops to 8ft, but the wind stays cross-onshore. Honestly, with the size and the chop, this might be more fun for the kite crew.

Saturday the 4th follows the same theme. Swell sits around 8ft to 8ft from the south, with a long 11-12 second period and a massive energy reading of 2746 on Saturday arvo. The wind swings offshore on Saturday afternoon, which is a good sign, but the swell is still predicted to be too big for this break. It's a powerful groundswell, which might make it wall up and close out here, so again, only for very experienced surfers.

Now, Sunday the 5th is the first real standout. This is where it all comes together. For the morning, we've got a primo 7ft SSE swell with an 11-second period, but the real magic is the glassy, off-the-charts glassy conditions. The combined energy is a healthy 970. That's a sweet, clean groundswell that will have great shape. The offshore wind direction is ideal for Mocambique as it's exposed to the SE. It stays clean through the afternoon, dropping to 6ft with a light cross-offshore breeze. This is the one to circle on your calendar.

Monday the 6th and Tuesday the 7th are a big step down. The swell drops right back to 3-4ft with periods between 7-10 seconds and combined energy down to 396. The wind is messy, so the surf will be small and average. You could probably get a wave on Monday's clean conditions, but it's marginal.

Wednesday the 8th through to Saturday the 11th keep the small but clean vibe going. Swells are between 2ft and 4ft. The mornings on Wednesday and Thursday are particularly nice with glassy conditions, and the offshore on Thursday morning is perfect. Not pumping, but if you just want a few clean fun waves, these are your windows. Crowds are possible here, especially on the better days.

Sunday the 12th of July is the other big standout. The morning offers a clean 4ft ESE swell with a 12-second period, which is excellent quality, but it's the afternoon that's the pick. The combined energy climbs to 537, still with a crusty light offshore and then cross-offshore breeze. Again, the optimum swell direction from the ESE (108 degrees) is a perfect match for this break's exposure. This is another session to look forward to.

The following week starts with a pulse of bigger, wind-affected S swell on Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th. This will be 7ft to 7ft but with strong cross-onshore winds, creating choppy, lumpy conditions. The energy hits 2035, but the quality is poor. A messy one.

Then we get to Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th, which are the long-range crown jewels. The swell settles in at a solid 6ft to 7ft from the SE, with a very long 12-13 second period. The combined energy is strong at around 1125-1210. Wednesday morning is absolute gold with clean, offshore winds, making it "excellent for experienced surfers". This is a powerful, long-period groundswell, so it will have plenty of punch and will be best as the tide does its thing. Thursday follows the same script with a clean 6ft set and a 13-second pulse. The conditions are pristine. This is the kind of deep, clean swell that makes all the waiting worth it.

The run finishes on Friday the 17th with a slightly smaller 5ft SE swell and a 13-second period, still clean with cross-offshore winds. A fine way to close out the forecast.

So, to sum it up: the first few days are a bust. Sunday the 5th and Sunday the 12th are your first and second big clean beach days. The absolute best on offer look to be Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th, but those are a long way out, so keep your fingers crossed the forecasts hold.

Rusty.

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