Miami Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this outlook for the next couple of weeks is a tough one to write. We’re looking at a long stretch of something less than ideal, but let’s break it down.

We start off on Wednesday the 8th of July, but don’t get your hopes up. The water temp is sitting at a warm 81°, which is pretty average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The problem is the wind. We’ve got a relentless cross-onshore breeze from the Southeast at 12 mph, chopping up anything that tries to form. The swell is a weak 4 ft from the East-Southeast, with a short period of 6 seconds and weak energy levels (126). It’s just poor, messy surf. This pattern is basically locked in for days.

Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th are more of the same: cross-on winds, junky little waves. On Thursday afternoon you’ll see a tiny 1 ft swell but with a long 15-second period from the South-Southeast, which sounds fancy, but the energy is still moderate (170) and the wind ruins any chance of a clean wave. Friday afternoon picks up a bit to 4 ft, but it’s that same short-period wind swell from the East (6 seconds, 222 energy). Still chopped out.

We roll into the weekend – Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th. Saturday sees a bump in energy to 316-319 from a 2 ft, 13-second South-Southeast swell. That longer period hints at better shape, but it’s still cross-on at 12 mph. Sunday morning we get a brief moment where the wind flicks offshore from the East-Southeast, and the swell hits 5 ft from the East with a 7-second period and strong energy (377). For a second there, it could be clean, but the period is short, so it’ll be soft and crumbly. By afternoon, it’s back to cross-on chop.

Monday the 13th through Wednesday the 15th is a Groundhog Day of poor conditions. There is a flicker on Monday afternoon and Tuesday where the wind goes light offshore (9 mph from the East or East-Southeast), and the swell holds at 4-5 ft with 7-second periods and moderate energy (170-243). If you’re desperate, this might be the only time you can find a clean-ish face, but it’s not the kind of surf you’d set an alarm for.

The second week, from Thursday the 16th onwards, stays locked in the same rut. We see some bigger pulses on Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th, with 5-5 ft swells from the Southeast and strong energy (277), but the wind is a howling cross-onshore at 16 mph. Then from Monday the 20th into Tuesday the 21st, the swell builds a touch more to 5-6 ft from the East-Southeast, with energy climbing into the mid-300s. But again, that brutal 16 mph cross-on wind is blowing across it, making it a choppy, bumpy mess. This is likely more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

The standout, if you can call it that, is probably the early part of the second week – Monday and Tuesday of the 14th-15th – when the wind goes light and offshore for a few hours. Even then, the wave quality is just not there. The swell is weak, short-period, and the break is a beach and reef setup that gets exposed to this onshore wind all the time.

So to sum it up: we have a blank run of poor surf from Wednesday the 8th right through to the end of the outlook on Thursday the 23rd. There are no true standouts. The only reason to paddle out would be if you love chop and have nothing else to do. Forecasts can always change, but as it stands, this is a classic summer flat-spell. Hang tight.

Rusty.

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