Miami Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this is a rough run for Miami. The whole 16-day window is a write-off for decent paddle surfing. We’ve got waves, yeah, but they’re coming in with a stinking cross-onshore wind almost the whole time, keeping everything chopped up and messy. There isn’t a single day that cracks a decent score.

Right from the start, Saturday the 11th of July, we’re looking at a small 0.7m (2ft) SE swell with a long 13-second period, but that southeasterly wind at 12 mph is ruining it. The combined energy is weak (285), and the water temp is a warm 81°F, which is about average for the time of year, but you won’t care about that when you’re fighting a bumpy surface.

Sunday the 12th stays poor. The morning is more of the same – small and choppy. By the afternoon, the swell bumps up to 1.4m (5ft) from the E, but the period drops to a pathetic 7 seconds. That’s short-period wind slop, and at 5ft it’s already a messy wall close to the beach. The energy stays low (286). Not fun.

Monday the 13th sees the wind finally clock fully onshore from the east at 9 mph. Swell is 1.1m to 1.3m (4ft to 4ft), still with that awful 7-second period. The energy drops further (160). It’s rideable if you’re desperate, but it’s not good surf.

The rest of the week and into the second week is a brutal repeating pattern. Tuesday the 14th has a tiny 1.0m (3ft) E swell and light onshore wind – at least it’s a bit cleaner, but the energy is just 117. From Wednesday the 15th through the weekend, the wind stays a steady 12 to 16 mph from the SE and ESE, cross-onshore, and the swell hangs around 1.0m to 1.3m (3ft to 4ft). All of it is short period, below 8 seconds, except for a brief window on Friday the 17th afternoon when it hits 1.5m (5ft) with a 7-second period. The energy jumps to 319, but the chop is relentless.

By the third week – around Sunday the 19th of July – we start seeing bigger swell. 1.7m (6ft) from the ESE, still with a short 7-second period, and the combined energy climbs into the moderate range (375). But the wind is still cross-onshore at 12 mph, making it a bumpy, chunky mess. This size (over 5ft) is getting too big for beginners, but with this poor quality, it’s not good for anyone. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

It keeps building. Wednesday the 22nd of July sees the biggest pulse: 2.0m (7ft) from the ESE with an 8-second period, and the energy hits a moderate 527. But that wind is still cross-onshore at 12-16 mph. Swell over 8ft is expert-only, and this is close, so it’s powerful and dumping but ragged.

The last few days, from Thursday the 24th to Sunday the 26th of July, stay stuck in the same pattern: 1.5m to 1.8m (5ft to 6ft) SE/ESE swell, 7-8 second periods, and cross-onshore winds. The energy stays moderate (282-333), but the quality is always poor.

So here’s the truth: there are zero standouts in this 16-day window. Not a single day with clean, glassy, or even decent offshore wind. The swell is there, and it even gets solid at times, but the conditions refuse to line up. For an exposed beach-and-reef spot like Miami that needs the wind to cooperate, this is a tough stretch. Don’t bother until the wind switches.

Rusty.

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