Miami Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Miami. I gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days look pretty bleak for surf. The data’s showing a long stretch of poor surf conditions, and the recommendations are basically a flat "no" for the whole run. That’s a tough one, but it happens. For a spot like this, a blank run isn't unheard of.

Let’s look at the details. The first few days, from Saturday the 8th through the whole first week, are all marked by poor surf. We’re looking at small, weak swell. The combined wave energy is mostly in the low to mid hundreds (123 to 346), which is moderate at best, but it’s all being wrecked by cross-onshore winds. The wind is blowing from the east and southeast at 15 to 25 km/h, which is a steady breeze, and it’s making a mess of things. The waves are small, mostly 3 ft to 6 ft, with short periods of 6 to 8 seconds. That’s short-period, wind-affected slop, not the kind of groundswell we want.

The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual to report.

As we roll into the second week, there’s a glimmer on Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th. On Sunday morning, we get a bit of a longer period at 12 seconds from the ESE, with a swell of 3 ft. The combined energy jumps up to 398 (moderate), and the wind is onshore from the east at 12 mph. Not perfect, but the longer period means more energy and better shape potential. Then Monday afternoon the 17th gets a bit of a bump: 5 ft from the east at 11 seconds, with combined energy hitting 560 (moderate-strong). The wind is still cross-onshore though, keeping it choppy.

After that, from Tuesday the 18th onward, it’s back to the same story: small, short-period swell, cross-onshore winds, and poor surf quality. The combined energy drops back into the 100s and low 200s. The swell stays under 5 ft, and the period is short, never getting above 8 seconds after the 17th.

The only break on the table is Miami, a beach and reef setup. It’s consistent, but the optimum swell direction is from the SE, and we’re mostly getting ESE and E swells, which isn’t ideal. The crowds are sometimes a factor, but given the conditions, it’s not going to be packed.

Honestly, there’s no standout session here. The best bet would be to keep an eye on the afternoon of Monday the 17th, when the swell is a bit bigger and the period is longer, but the wind is still on the wrong side. It’s a long-range call, so take it with a grain of salt. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty, signing off.

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