Navegantes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s cooking in the water.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is looking pretty flat and ordinary. We’ve got a long stretch of tiny, weak waves, and a lot of the time the wind is just messing things up. The first real glimmer of something better doesn’t show up until mid-week the following week, and even then it’s a bit of a mixed bag.

Let’s start with now. The first few days are all about Navegantes. On Friday the 31st of July, we’re looking at a tiny 1 ft southeast swell, with a long 13-second period. The combined energy is a weak 40, so don’t expect much push. The morning has a nice cross-offshore wind (NW at 3 mph), so it’ll be clean, but there’s just not enough water moving to get excited about. The water is 66°, which is 1° warmer than normal, so pretty average for this time of year.

Saturday and Sunday the 1st and 2nd of August see the swell bump up to 3 ft to 4 ft, but the period drops to a short 6-7 seconds. That’s windswell, not groundswell, so the waves will be weak and crumbly. The mornings are the best bet with clean conditions (WNW and W offshore winds), but the wave quality is still just “ordinary”. The combined energy on Sunday morning hits 141, which is still just moderate, so don’t expect any barrels.

The whole first week (through to Thursday the 6th of August) is a grind. Mostly small waves between 2 ft and 3 ft, with short periods, and the afternoons get chopped up by cross-onshore winds. There’s a glassy morning on Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th, but the swell is tiny and weak. The combined energy on Tuesday morning is 157, still moderate. It’s surfable, but you’d be scratching for a ride.

There’s a gap of nothing really worth paddling out for from Thursday the 6th through to about Wednesday the 12th of August. The swell stays under 3 ft, the periods are short, and the wind is all over the place. A few glassy mornings pop up, but the energy is just too low (mostly under 100). It’s a tough stretch.

Now, the real standout – and I mean the *only* standout – is Saturday the 15th of August. A serious southeast groundswell is forecast to roll in. We’re talking 6 ft to 6 ft in the morning and afternoon, with a very long 16-second period. The combined energy is massive: 1532 in the morning and 1900 in the afternoon. That’s strong to very strong wave energy. This is a proper groundswell – long period, lots of power.

But here’s the catch: the wind is going to be a problem. It’s a cross-onshore from the ESE at 12 mph and SE at 9 mph. That’s going to make the surf choppy and messy. Navegantes is a beach/jetty setup, and with that long period swell (over 15 seconds), it’s prone to closing out or breaking straight. This might honestly be more interesting for the kite surfers than paddle surfers, because the wind and swell combo will offer some power, but the surf quality is going to be rough. The forecast says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so even though the swell is big, don’t get your hopes up for clean waves.

The swell is 6 ft to 6 ft, so it’s getting into that range where it’s too big for beginners. For experienced surfers, it might be worth a look if you can find a less wind-affected spot, but at Navegantes, the wind is going to be a killer.

So, to wrap it up: the next 10 days are mostly flat and mediocre. The best bet on the entire 16-day forecast is Saturday the 15th of August, but it’s a long-range call and the wind is not on our side. Keep an eye on it, but don’t plan your life around it.

Rusty.

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