Stela Maris Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The whole 16-day window here is a bit of a tough one to be honest. There’s a fair bit of swell on the way, but the wind and the conditions are just not lining up for Stela Maris to really shine. We’re looking at a pretty long stretch of "poor surf conditions" labels across the board, so don’t expect much in the way of clean, rideable waves.

Starting off now, right through the end of July, the swell is small, mostly around 2 ft to 3 ft from the ESE, with a short period of 6 to 7 seconds. That’s weak, choppy energy (combined energy values mostly between 31 and 102). The wind is a problem too – it’s either cross-onshore or directly onshore, with speeds from 3 mph to 12 mph. That’s going to keep the surface messy. There’s a couple of moments with a light breeze, but the swell is just too weak and short-period to make anything of it.

We move into the first week of August, and the swell starts to pick up a bit. On the 1st and 2nd, we see heights around 4 ft to 5 ft, still from the ESE, with period creeping up to 7-8 seconds. The combined energy gets into the moderate range (110 to 225). But again, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, so it’s going to be a bumpy, choppy mess. Not worth paddling out for.

Now, the real interesting part comes around the 8th and 9th of August. The swell direction swings around to the S and SSE, and the period jumps up to 13-14 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. The heights are around 4 ft to 5 ft, and the combined energy hits some seriously strong numbers, peaking at 1119 on the morning of the 9th. That’s a lot of power in the water. But here’s the kicker: the wind is still onshore, from the E and ESE, at 12 mph to 16 mph. The comment on every single one of these is “poor surf conditions.” For a beach break like Stela Maris, that long-period, onshore wind combo is going to create a messy, closed-out, and probably dangerous situation. The 5 ft+ swell is also getting into the "too big for beginners" and pushing towards "only for experts" territory, especially with that onshore wind. This setup might actually be more interesting for the kite surfers than paddle surfers, to be honest.

The water temperature at Stela Maris is sitting at 79°F, with a tiny anomaly of 0.7°F. That’s pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no worries there.

The best on offer? Honestly, there isn’t a standout. The whole period is a write-off for clean surfing. The closest thing to a "maybe" is the morning of the 4th of August, where the wind is light cross-onshore from the ENE at 6 mph, and the swell is 5 ft from the E with a 8-second period. The combined energy is 314, which is moderate. The comment there is “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” That’s the only session that scrapes a score of 1 out of 10, and it’s still not good. The long-range stuff on the 9th and 10th has the power, but the wind is just wrong. It’s a frustrating pattern.

If you’re desperate, you can look at the 4th of August morning, but keep your expectations on the floor. Otherwise, give it a miss and hope the forecast changes.

Rusty.

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