Stela Maris Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks. We’re looking at Stela Maris, and the honest truth is the forecast is a bit of a bummer for the best part of the first week.

The first real surf we see is pretty small and weak. The pattern is mostly building from the south-east, but the wind is a constant problem. For the first few days, from Tuesday the 14th to the middle of the next week, the swell is either crossed-up or onshore, with the only real energy showing up on Wednesday the 15th with a 8 ft south-south-east wind-swell. That’s a decent size, but the wind is honking at 22 mph from the same direction, making it lumpy, messy, and pretty much a write-off for a clean paddle.

The water temperature is sitting at a pleasant 79°, which is pretty much bang on average for the time of year.

We see a slight improvement from Thursday the 16th to Monday the 21st, with a persistent south-south-east to south-east swell in the 5 ft to 6 ft range. The combined energy is moderate to strong, hitting as high as 773 on the Friday morning the 17th. The wind eases off too, turning mostly onshore but gentle. The problem is the swell period is short, mostly 8 to 11 seconds, so it’s going to be a bit fat and crumbly, and the wave comment is still calling it poor surf conditions. It’s not going to be a day for the photo album.

There is a window on Wednesday morning the 22nd of July that stands out as the only marginal call. The swell is 5 ft from the east-south-east, with a light 3 mph wind from the south-east, creating a light cross-onshore breeze. The combined energy is weak (265), but it’s the closest we get to something clean. Even then, it’s only a marginal call – think small, weak, and maybe a fun little ripple for a longboard at the right tide.

The real standout, and it’s a proper long-range tease, happens on Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th of July. A solid south-south-east swell pushes in, hitting 8 ft on Tuesday afternoon. The combined energy is very strong (1251). The wind is onshore at 12 mph, which is a shame, but the size is there. Then on Wednesday the 29th, the swell direction swings to the south and the period jumps to a very long 15 seconds, with a combined energy of 762. That’s a proper groundswell. It’s a long way out, so treat it as promising but not locked in, but that Wednesday afternoon window is the one to keep an eye on for a decent, powerful wave.

Overall, for the next 16 days, Stela Maris is a tough call. The first week is largely a write-off due to wind. The second week has one or two potential highlights, but the consistency is poor. Given the strong onshore winds and exposed beach setup, some of those bigger wind-swell days might actually be more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

Rusty.

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