Stela Maris Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the outlook for Stela Maris over the next couple of weeks.

First up, I gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days are a tough read for this spot. We’ve got a long, dry spell of poor conditions right through to nearly the end of September. The swell is there, but it’s just not lining up. The wind is relentless, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and that’s just killing any chance of clean waves.

For Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th, we’re looking at small, short-period swell around 3ft to 4ft from the ESE, but with that onshore wind kicking up to 12 mph and more, it’s just messy. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate (178 to 183), and the wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. Don’t even bother paddling out – you’ll be fighting the breeze and getting chopped up.

The pattern doesn’t let up through the middle of the week. Wednesday the 16th stays similar, with 4ft to 4ft of short-period swell (7-8 seconds) and onshore wind. The combined energy bumps up a bit (242-244), but it’s still a bumpy, onshore mess.

Thursday the 17th is a bit of a tease. The morning shows a longer-period swell coming in – 11 seconds from the ESE, with 4ft of swell and a gentle breeze that’s onshore. The combined energy jumps to 383 (moderate), which sounds promising, but the wind is still on it, so it’s a no-go. By the afternoon, the wind swings cross-onshore and picks up to 16 mph, and that’s that.

Friday the 18th through the weekend (19th and 20th) is more of the same: 5ft to 6ft of short-period swell (6-7 seconds) with onshore winds. The combined energy sits in the 320-373 range, but the wave comment is still “poor surf conditions”. The swell is getting a bit bigger, but with that short period, it’ll be soft and lumpy, not worth the drive. That 6ft on Friday afternoon might look tempting, but the period is only 7 seconds – it’s just windswell, not a proper groundswell.

The second week (21st to 28th September) doesn’t offer much relief. We see a consistent 4ft to 5ft of swell, but the period stays short (7-9 seconds) and the wind is almost always on or cross-onshore. There’s a morning on Saturday the 26th with a cross-shore breeze (gentle), and a 5ft swell, but the combined energy is high (416) and the wave comment is “marginal” at best. It’s a maybe, but not a standout.

The only real glimpse of hope comes right at the end. On Sunday the 27th morning, we get a very light breeze from the NNE (cross-shore, only 3 mph) with a 4ft swell from the east. It’s still got a short period of 7 seconds, and the combined energy is only 200, so it’s weak. But that glassy, light wind might just make it ridable. And on Monday the 28th morning, another light cross-onshore breeze (6 mph) with a 5ft swell from the east. Again, marginal, and the combined energy is 227.

Honestly, there’s no true standout in this whole 16-day window. The wind is the enemy here. If you’re desperate, keep an eye on those light-wind mornings at the end of the month, but don’t hold your breath. This is a tough run for Stela Maris.

Rusty.

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