Marinas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and look at what’s actually happening at Marinas. The next 16 days are a wild ride, but to be honest, it starts off with a whole lot of nothing and then turns into a monster that we probably can't surf. Hang tight, because there's a specific window that's going to be the standout, even if it's way too big for most of us.

We’re looking at a real gap in the surf for the first couple of days. Wednesday and Thursday are flat, with a bit of wind but zero swell energy. Then Friday rolls in with a storm force cross-shore that’s going to be a complete mess – hurricane-force winds in the afternoon. That’s not surfing; that’s a survival drill. So, the first few days are a total write-off.

The first real swell shows up on Saturday the 8th, and it’s a doozy. The water temp at Marinas is sitting around 87°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won’t need a spring suit. Saturday morning brings a solid 33 ft of south swell with a 14-second period, and the energy is just cranking at 42391. The wind is cross-off, which would be great, but the swell is just too big for this break. The models are saying it’s going to be too much, and I’m inclined to agree. It’s a washout for the average punter, but maybe worth a look if you’re a madman. That afternoon it bumps up to 36 ft with a 16-second period, and the energy is up at 60631. It’s still too big, and it’s just going to be heavy and dangerous.

Sunday the 9th is not any better. We’ve got storm-force cross-onshore winds hitting 60 mph, with the swell still holding at 33 ft. It’s a full-blown mess. The energy is still huge at 47126, but with that wind, it's basically a washing machine. By Monday the 10th, the swell drops a bit to 25 ft with a 14-second period, but the wind is still howling at 47 mph from the southwest. It’s still way too big and blown out. The energy is down to 22411, but it’s still not surfable.

Tuesday the 11th, the swell drops to 12 ft, but the wind is still cross-onshore and lumpy. It’s poor. Finally, on Wednesday the 12th, things start to settle down. We have a light breeze, and the swell is down to 8 ft from the SSW with a 10-second period. It’s marginal, but at least it’s not dangerous. The energy is down to 1243, which is much weaker. It might be a fun one for the crew who just want to get wet, but it’s not a standout.

After that, the swell fades off quickly. The rest of the week and into the next is mostly junk – small, weak waves with cross-onshore winds. The combined energy drops from 572 on Thursday the 13th all the way down to just 100 by Sunday the 16th. There’s no juice in the water at all. We see some cleaner conditions from the 16th onward with a light offshore wind, but the waves are only around 2 ft. It’s the kind of thing you can paddle out on a foamie for, but it’s pretty ordinary.

So, if you’re looking for the best on offer, it’s that Wednesday the 12th session. It’s not going to be epic, but with the swell from the SSW at 8 ft and a light breeze, it’s the most manageable surf in that otherwise chaotic first week. It’s a reef break and it’s fairly consistent, so there should be a few waves coming through. The second week is just a flat, clean doldrum. Don't get too excited about the long-range stuff; it’s all promise and no payoff.

The real takeaway here? The surf is either non-existent or too big and blown out for most of this window. The 8th through the 10th is for experts only – that’s heavy, dangerous, storm-force level stuff. If you see a big swell like that and the wind is blowing hard onshore, it might be a better day for the kites than the surfboards. Overall, keep your expectations low, and maybe plan a surf trip for mid-September.

Rusty.

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