Osaki Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Things are looking a bit flat and ordinary for the next week or so, but there’s a real monster brewing way out in the long-range that’s got my attention. Let’s break it down.

The first decent surf shows up on Friday afternoon, August 28th, at Osaki Point. It’s a beach and reef set-up, and the water’s a touch warmer than usual at 85°, which is a bit warmer than normal for this time of year. The swell is a modest 4 ft out of the SSW, with a short period of 7 seconds, and combined wave energy is moderate at 260. The wind is offshore from the SW at 12 mph, so it’ll be clean. It’s consistent here, but crowds are sometimes an issue. Waves are rideable but nothing special. This is about the best of a pretty average run.

Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th stay small, with similar SSW swell around 3 ft to 4 ft and short periods. Winds are light offshore or cross-offshore, keeping the surface clean, but the energy is weak (122 to 192). The waves are very ordinary.

Monday the 31st shows a bit more promise with a 3 ft S swell and a longer period of 11 seconds, giving a moderate energy of 228. The morning has light S winds, cross-offshore, making for clean conditions. It’s surfable, but not a standout.

Then we hit a flat spell. From Tuesday, September 1st, through to Thursday, September 10th, conditions are poor to marginal. The swell picks up a bit in size (5 ft to 8 ft) but the wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, creating chop and poor quality. The energy gets strong (545 to 1441), but the wind ruins it. There’s a brief window on Friday afternoon, September 4th, with clean cross-offshore wind and a 7 ft S swell at 11 seconds, but the rest of the time is a write-off. The waves are too big for beginners from September 2nd onward, and by September 8th a strong SW wind at 25 mph makes it a mess.

Now, for the real news. The standout is on Friday, September 11th, in the afternoon. A long-period groundswell from the ESE arrives, with a massive 21-second period and a combined energy of 4642 – that’s strong to very strong. The swell is 8 ft, which is pushing into expert territory for this setup. The wind is light from the SE, creating some cross-shore ripple, but it’s manageable. This is a glimpse of what’s to come.

But the real showstopper is on Saturday, September 12th. The swell explodes – 18 ft in the morning and a massive 23 ft in the afternoon, both from the ESE with a very long period of 18 seconds. The combined energy is off the charts: 18108 in the morning and 56068 in the afternoon. This is dangerously big. The wind is cross-onshore, so it’ll be choppy and messy. For a beach and reef break, these conditions are more suited to big-wave experts or even kite surfers, not paddle surfing. The period is so long that the waves will be breaking straight at the beach, making it a bit unpredictable. This is promising but very uncertain this far out.

So, to sum it up: the first week is mostly weak and ordinary, with the best being Friday afternoon August 28th. The second week builds to a massive, dangerous swell around September 11th and 12th. Keep an eye on the long-range, but don’t get your hopes up for clean conditions.

Rusty.

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