Osaki Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s talk about this stretch of coast. For the next two and a bit weeks, the swell window is definitely open, but the wind is going to be the main character – and honestly, it’s often going to be a pain. We’ve got a major player arriving, but holding it together will be the real challenge. The best surf on offer? It’s a narrow window with a big, powerful swell, but the conditions to ride it might only be there for the brave.

We start on Tuesday the 15th. Osaki Point (Osaki-Point) is glassy first thing with a clean, 5 ft ESE swell running at a moderate 9-second period. Combined energy is moderate (375). The water temp is about normal for this time of year. Tuesday morning is setup for some genuinely fun, clean waves. Tuesday afternoon holds that glassy wind with a slightly smaller 4 ft swell – still a good session.

Then it gets ugly. Wednesday the 16th through to Thursday the 17th is a write-off. The wind swings onshore and picks up, dropping the swell to under 3 ft and making a mess of things. That’s three days of poor surf before we see any hope.

Friday the 18th is a tease. The swell jumps up to 8 ft from the east (9-10 second period), and the combined energy climbs dramatically (1802-2458). But the wind is onshore, making it choppy. It’s big and messy – marginal for anyone. Saturday the 19th is where the real power shows up with a 13 ft, 15-second groundswell from the ESE. That’s a very long-period, serious groundswell. The combined energy is huge (6756), but the wind is onshore again and building. That Saturday morning session is for experts only; the period is so long it’ll be walling up and will need a reef or point to handle it, but here it’s a beach-and-reef mix with a cross-onshore breeze. This looks more like a kite-surfing setup than clean paddle surfing.

Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st keep that massive swell train going – 13 ft to 15 ft with a 14-second period and even higher energy (over 8200). But it’s accompanied by a fresh onshore wind. It’s just too lumpy and messy for a safe, fun paddle.

The true standout, the one that’s worth paying attention to, is Tuesday the 22nd of September. We’ve got a beast of a swell: 38 ft from the SE with a 15-second period. The combined energy is a staggering 62573. The file says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That is an honest heads-up. The wind is cross-onshore at 30 km/h. For the absolute top-tier big-wave expert, this is the window. For everyone else, it’s a spectacle, not a session. Later that afternoon it drops to 23 ft, still enormous.

After that, the swell fades fast. Wednesday the 23rd has a gale warning with 70 km/h winds, making it dangerous and unrideable. From Thursday the 24th all the way to the end of the period on the 30th, the swell drops way down (under 7 ft, mostly under 5 ft) but the wind stays onshore. There’s a gap of steady, poor conditions for about a week. The only other bump in energy comes on the 28th and 29th (6 ft to 8 ft from the south, 14 sec period), but that’s still blown out with a fresh breeze. Not worth the paddle given the wind. That Tuesday the 22nd is it – a true, wild standout, but not for the faint of heart.

Rusty.

Read more