Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a solid window of serious southern groundswell heading our way, but it’s not all clean and perfect. The first few days are a bit of a battle with the wind, but the reward for the patient is a proper weekend of heavy, powerful surf.

The biggest issue right up front is the wind. Through Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th, we’ve got a solid 7ft to 10ft SSE to S swell rolling in, with a very long period of 15 to 16 seconds, meaning serious energy in the water (combined energy readings from 2685 up to 3606). That’s proper groundswell, and it’s pushing a lot of water. But the wind is onshore or cross-onshore from the S and SSE at 15 km/h, and that’s going to mess up the surface. Conditions are marginal, a bit choppy. The water temperature is sitting at 76°, which is about 2° cooler than average for this time of year – a bit nippier than usual, so don’t ditch the spring suit just yet.

The real turn comes Friday the 10th. The swell builds to 12ft - 13ft out of the S, with a 17-second period. That’s massive raw energy (combined energy jumping to 7367 and 9281). The wind is still onshore, but it’s a light breeze, so it’s not wrecking it as badly. Still, the forecast calls it marginal, so it’s going to be powerful and a bit lumpy. This is big, serious stuff – definitely expert-only territory at over 8ft.

Now, Saturday the 11th is the standout. We’ve got 13ft of swell from the S/SSW, still with a 17-second period that’s just pumping juice (combined energy over 9000). The wind is a light onshore breeze from the SSE at 15 km/h. It’s not glassy, but it’s the best combo of size and manageable wind in the whole run. This is the day for the experienced crew to get after it. Tainohama is a reef, and with a long period swell like this, it’s going to focus that energy into a proper, thick wall. It’s a fairly consistent spot, but it can get crowded sometimes, so get in early.

Sunday the 12th sees the swell drop back to 8ft, still with decent 16-second period, but the wind swings a bit more onshore. The real drop-off happens Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th, when the swell crashes to under 4ft and the energy drops to next to nothing (422 and 292). That’s a flat spell, and it lasts for a few days.

There’s a bit of hope late in the run. On Thursday the 17th, the swell is small (4ft) but the wind goes glassy in the morning. The energy is low (430), but a glassy morning on a 4ft wave is a lovely way to get a few clean ones. Then on Saturday the 18th, we get another little bump of 4ft SSW swell with a cross-offshore wind from the NNE at 10 km/h. The combined energy is a moderate 821, and the forecast says “very good surf conditions.” That’s a sneaky good session.

So to wrap it up: the big game is Saturday the 11th. That’s your best shot for size and power. If you miss that, don’t sweat – the 18th has a clean, smaller window that’s a lot more user-friendly. The water is a bit cooler than usual, so keep that in mind.

Rusty.

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