Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’re checking out a long-range forecast for Tainohama, and it’s a story of two halves. The ocean’s going to fire up something fierce, but a persistent south wind is going to be the main character for most of it, keeping things messy. The water’s running at 77°, which is about 1° cooler than the norm for this time of year – nothing wild, just a slight chill in the air.

The first few days are a total write-off. Monday the 6th is flat with barely any energy (180) and poor conditions, so don’t even bother. We don’t see anything worth a paddle until Tuesday morning, July 7th. That’s the first real highlight. It’s small, only 3ft of southeast swell, but the wind goes glassy, dead calm. The wave energy is moderate (621), and with a 15-second period, it’s proper groundswell. For a reef break, that long period is a gift, meaning clean, lined-up waves. It won’t be big, but it’ll be perfect. The crowds here are *sometimes* an issue, but on a Tuesday morning with tiny swell, you might have it to yourself.

That glassy moment is the peak of the first week. By Tuesday afternoon the wind swings, and from Wednesday the 8th onwards, we get a massive pulse of swell. Energy readings jump to four-digit numbers, hitting over 10,000 by Friday July 10th, with 13ft of south swell. The problem? Every single session from Wednesday morning through the weekend has an onshore wind. The morning of Friday the 10th has the biggest swell (13ft at 17 seconds from the south) and the highest energy (10,553), but the onshore wind makes it a washing machine. That size is for seasoned pros only – well over 8ft.

We do see a flicker of hope later in the window. Saturday July 18th morning shapes up nicely. The swell drops back to a manageable 5ft from the south, and the wind goes absolutely glassy – 0 mph. The combined energy is moderate (791), and the period is a clean 12 seconds. Conditions would be unreal. The real standout, though, is a bit further out: Tuesday July 21st morning. We get 8ft of east swell, period is short at 9 seconds, but the wind is glassy again. The forecast marks it as excellent for experienced surfers. The energy is strong (1,722), and if that east swell lines up with the break’s optimum direction from the south, it could be the best day of the whole run. Keep an eye on it.

So, to sum it up: don’t even look at the water until Tuesday morning July 7th for some tiny, clean waves. After that, you’ll get plenty of size but blown-out conditions through the weekend and into the next week. The two true standouts to circle on your calendar are the glassy morning of Saturday July 18th, and the promising setup on Tuesday July 21st.

Rusty.

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