Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into what’s on the table for Tainohama over the next couple of weeks. Rusty here.

Right now, the start of the period is a bit of a slow burn. Sunday afternoon serves up a 4ft swell from the ESE with a juicy 16-second period, but the wind is a moderate breeze from the NNE, cross-off, and the combined energy is only 682. It’s clean but it's not exactly going to light your world on fire. The water is sitting at 84°, a touch warmer than usual for this time of year.

We get a bump in size Monday morning with 5ft from the ESE, still that long 16-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 1263. But the wind swings onshore from the SSE, so we’re dealing with light cross-onshore wind ripples. Monday afternoon goes full onshore and the quality drops out. Not the day to get excited.

Tuesday brings a jump in size. Morning sees 8ft from the ESE, still a solid 16-second period, and the combined energy is a strong 4446. The wind is light from the south, but it’s cross-onshore. That’s big, long-period groundswell, but the onshore wind will chop it up. Tuesday afternoon pushes 10ft from the ESE with a 17-second period and energy at 6021, but it’s onshore again. That kind of size and period at a reef break can be tricky with a cross-onshore breeze; it'll be messy.

Now, Wednesday the 5th of August is where things start to cook. Wednesday morning we’ve got 15ft from the SE, a 17-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 11299. The wind is light from the ENE, a cross-shore breeze, keeping things relatively clean. This is big, powerful groundswell. For experts only. That kind of size over 8ft is not for the faint of heart. Wednesday afternoon sees 16ft, same direction and period, energy up to 14334, and still light cross-onshore wind. This is the first real standout of the window. The swell direction matches the optimum from the south, so Tainohama is going to be absolutely honking.

Thursday the 6th of August is the real beast. Thursday morning we’re looking at a massive 21ft from the SE, 18-second period, and the combined energy is an incredible 24428. The wind is a moderate breeze from the NE, cross-off, giving you clean faces. That is world-class size and the wind is perfect for it. However, the data says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. It will be dangerous, possibly unsurfable, or just a solid wall of whitewater. Only for the absolute elite, and even then, caution is the word. Thursday afternoon is the same size but with a cross-onshore wind and storm risk, so it’ll be a washing machine.

Friday the 7th holds onto the 20-21ft range, all from the SE/SSE with 16-second periods and energy still in the 19,000-24,000 range. The wind stays cross-shore, but it’s a moderate breeze. Again, too big for most, but the power is staggering.

The swell slowly backs down over the weekend. Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th have 13-15ft swell from the S/SSW, but the wind is a moderate breeze from the east, cross to cross-onshore, and we’ve got rain and poor conditions coming in. By Sunday afternoon and Monday the 10th, it’s a write-off with strong onshore winds and heavy rain.

We get a small window on Tuesday the 11th with 7ft from the SSW, but it’s cross-onshore and the period has dropped to 13 seconds. Nothing special.

Then, looking into the second week, we get a couple of cleaner days. Wednesday the 12th morning has 6ft from the SSW, a 12-second period, and light NE cross-off wind with combined energy of 1091. It’s clean, but small. Thursday the 13th morning is the pick of that back half: 4ft from the SSW, a 12-second period, and a light offshore wind from the north. The combined energy is 658, but it’s clean, and the data says to expect very good surf conditions. That’s a nice little glassy session. The rest of that week fades into knee-high dribble with the occasional pulse of 5ft from the ESE on Sunday the 16th under glassy conditions, but the energy is weak.

Overall, your true standout is Wednesday the 5th of August. That’s the day the stars align for the biggest, strongest, cleanest groundswell for experts. After that, Thursday the 13th morning is a nice little consolation prize of clean, smaller waves for a more relaxed paddle.

Rusty.

Read more