Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s size up what’s on the menu for Tainohama.

We’re looking at a pretty clear split forecast. The opening days this weekend are big, powerful, and tricky. Then the middle of the week drops right off into a flat spell, before a much more promising window opens up in the final days of the outlook. For the keen ones, the standout play is Saturday 24th July if you’ve got the nerve, or the Sunday before that for the morning glass.

Let’s start with this weekend. The first surf on offer is Saturday morning, 11th July. Tainohama is a reef break, advanced only, and you’ll quickly see why. Swell is a solid 13ft from the south with a very long 17-second period — that’s proper groundswell with serious energy (combined energy of 8927). It’s a big, powerful ocean. The wind is light but onshore from the SSE at 6 mph, so it won’t be pretty. Conditions are marginal. Saturday afternoon the wind swings to the south and picks up to 9 mph, cross-onshore, leaving it choppy. This is heavy, expert-only territory. For a reef, the long period can actually work in its favour, but the cross-on wind is the buzzkill.

Now Sunday 12th July morning — this is the best of the near-term. Still heavy at 12ft from the SSW, with a 16-second period, but the wind is dead calm. Glassy conditions, combined energy of 5296. For an advanced crew, that’s an exceptional window. The sea will be clean, the lines long and powerful. Afternoon brings a risk of thunderstorms and a light cross-on breeze, dropping the quality fast.

Monday 13th the swell has dropped to 5ft, period still decent at 12 seconds, and both morning and afternoon are glassy. Combined energy down to 766. Good, clean surf for those who missed the bigger stuff, but nothing compared to the weekend.

From Tuesday 14th through to Wednesday 22nd July, it’s a long run of small to flat conditions. Waves drop below 3ft, period shortens, and the combined energy plummets into the double digits. Most of those days rate as poor surf, with only a couple of mornings offering surfable but ordinary conditions. That’s about a week of quiet water.

Then things wake up. Thursday 23rd July morning brings an 12ft swell from the SSE, period 15 seconds, combined energy 6085. Wind is cross-offshore from the north at 9 mph, keeping it clean. The afternoon jumps to 13ft from the same direction, period 14 seconds, energy 7558, wind light and cross-off from the NNE. This is exceptional, expert-level surf — powerful, clean, and lined up. Crowds are only sometimes a problem here, but this kind of quality will draw the locals.

Friday 24th July is the big one. Morning: 23ft from the SSE at 14 seconds, combined energy of 22847. That is massive. Wind is offshore from the NNW at 12 mph. The numbers say it’s too big for this break, and honestly, that’s only for the absolute elite. It’s a reef, so it will hold, but you need to know what you’re doing. Afternoon still 15ft and offshore. This is the standout, but it is only for experts.

Saturday 25th July offers a much more manageable 5ft from the south, 10 seconds, with moderate offshore winds from the NNW at 12-16 mph. Combined energy around 695. Clean, fun, and far less intimidating. A good recovery day.

Sunday 26th July morning: 4ft, same south direction, 10 seconds, but the wind is a fresh offshore from the north at 19 mph, which will clean it up but may make paddling a chore. Marginal conditions.

Water temperature is about average for the time of year here.

Alright, that’s the whole picture. I’d call Thursday 23rd afternoon and Friday 24th morning the true standouts, but only if you’ve got the skills. Sunday 12th morning was the cleanest early window. The rest is either flat or for the brave.

Rusty.

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