Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Tainohama is cooking up for us over the next couple of weeks. It’s a quiet start but there’s some serious firepower building for the end of July. Hang tight.

We’re kicking off with pretty much nothing for the first week. From Monday the 20th right through to Sunday the 26th of July, it’s a flat spell. We’re looking at minimal swell – mostly around 0.7 ft to 1 ft, with combined swell energy barely creeping into two digits (as low as 22). There are a few glassy moments (Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning, for example) but with no wave energy, it’s just a flat, clean ocean. Not worth getting wet for. This is about a seven-day stretch of no real surf. A bit frustrating, but it happens.

The first real glimmer of hope arrives on Monday morning the 27th of July. We see a jump in swell height to 4 ft from the S, with a period of 12 seconds. That’s a solid groundswell getting in. The morning conditions are glassy with slight air, and the combined energy is up to 586 – finally some moderate energy. The water temperature is sitting at 83°, which feels a touch warmer than normal for the time of year. It’s looking clean and promising.

Now, the standout window hits on Tuesday the 28th of July. Tuesday morning is the pick of the entire outlook. We’ve got a 8 ft S swell rolling in with a 14-second period, and it’s glassy – zero wind. The combined swell energy is a whopping 3622 which tells you there’s plenty of grunt behind it. That’s groundswell territory and the long period means proper, well-shaped waves. Tainohama is a reef break, so it will handle that long period energy like a dream. This is for experienced surfers only though – 8 ft is serious on a reef. If you’ve got the skills, do not miss this session.

Wednesday morning the 29th of July pushes up even bigger, with the swell hitting 15 ft from the S at 15 seconds. The energy reading is an enormous 9173. But here’s the catch – the wind is cross-onshore from the SSW at 15 km/h, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. It’s going to be lumpy and the size is well into expert territory. The afternoon pushes to 16 ft with even stronger cross-onshore wind, so Wednesday is a wild card. Only for the brave, and even then, conditions aren’t ideal.

Thursday the 30th of July sees the swell peak – we’re looking at 21 ft in the morning, and a massive 26 ft from the SSE by the afternoon. That’s extreme. Combined swell energy hits 37238 in the afternoon, which is off the charts. The wind is onshore and strengthening, so this is dangerous, messy, and way too big for any sort of enjoyable surfing. The file explicitly says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. Let common sense rule.

Heading into Friday the 31st of July, the swell drops back to 10 ft from the SE in the morning, and the wind shifts north, turning offshore and cross-off. It cleans up nicely. But the swell period drops to 11 seconds, and while the energy is still robust at 2117, the quality is only marginal. The afternoon drops further to 6 ft, still with a clean cross-off wind from the N. It’s surfable, but far from the quality of Tuesday morning.

The first week of August looks like it fades badly. By Saturday the 1st of August, the swell is under 3 ft, the wind is howling offshore at 45-55 km/h from the N, and it’s a rain showery mess. That’s not surfable for a paddle board – maybe kite if you’re into that. Sunday and beyond stay tiny, with weak, short-period swell and onshore or cross-onshore wind. Nothing to get excited about.

If you’re picking your window, the absolute standout is Tuesday the 28th of July, early morning. Glossy glass, 8 ft of S groundswell at 14 seconds, and Tainohama’s reef setup should be pumping with clean, powerful lines. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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