Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let me talk you through what's shaping up at Tainohama over the next couple of weeks.

Alright, we've got a big pulse of southerly groundswell coming through to start the period, but honestly, with how this break lines up, it's a bit of a mixed bag. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore for the first few days, so it's a bit of a struggle to find clean conditions despite the size. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing out of the ordinary to report there.

Thursday the 9th is a write-off. We've got a building 8ft swell from the SSE with a long 15-second period, pushing combined wave energy of 3506 (moderate to strong), but it's onshore and the forecast is marginal. Not worth paddling out.

Friday the 10th sees the swell bump up to 12ft from the S, period still at 17 seconds, and the combined energy is even bigger at 6993 in the morning and 7486 in the afternoon. Wind is onshore though, and it's still looking marginal. This is big, powerful stuff, over 8ft, so it's strictly for the experts. Saturday the 11th is the standout of this first week. The morning has a 13ft swell from the S with a 17-second period, combined energy rocketing up to 10270 (strong to very strong). The wind is still onshore, but the overall quality is the best we'll see for a few days, scoring a 7. This is big, heavy, groundswell—experts only, but if you're game and the tide works, it could be a session to remember. The afternoon stays solid at 13ft from the SSW.

Sunday morning the 12th offers a brief window of hope. The swell drops to 10ft from the SSW, 16-second period, and we get glassy conditions. That's a major positive, the combined energy is still strong at 4280, and it's described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is the cleanest the big swell will be all week. The window is short, though, as the afternoon turns cross-onshore and choppy.

Monday the 13th drops right off. Morning has 5ft from the SSW, 12-second period, combined energy down to 705, and it's glassy. It's surfable, but the score is low. The afternoon gets smaller, 4ft, and cleaner but not much push.

From Tuesday the 14th through to the end of the first week, it fades out fast. Small, weak swell with poor to marginal conditions. A few glassy windows on the 17th and 18th, but with combined energy under 130 and tiny wave heights around 2ft, it's barely a ripple.

Now for the second week, it gets interesting again. Through the middle of the week (19th to 20th), small ESE windswell tries to build, but it remains marginal and onshore. Then, Tuesday the 21st of July morning is a massive alert. The forecast is calling for a 15ft swell from the SE with a 14-second period, and combined energy of 15615. That's enormous—way too big for this break, the report says it's predicted to be too big. No one should be out there unless you're suicidal. Wednesday the 22nd morning offers a quieter window with a 7ft SE swell and glassy conditions, combined energy of 803, and is considered very good surf. That's one to keep an eye on, but remember it's a long-range forecast.

The last few days of the period (23rd and 24th) fade back to small, cleanish conditions with cross-offshore winds, but the swell is tiny, under 4ft. Not much to get excited about.

So, the clear standout is Saturday the 11th of July morning for the sheer size and power, if you're an expert and can handle the onshore wind. The other highlight is Sunday the 12th of July morning, when the big swell meets glassy conditions for a brief, clean session. For the second week, the Wednesday the 22nd morning is the most promising but with lower confidence this far out. There are a lot of flat, poor days in between, so pick your window carefully.

Rusty out.

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