Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming down the line for Tainohama over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, the outlook kicks off with a flat, frustrating stretch. For the first several days, from Thursday the 13th right through to the middle of the following week, we’re looking at real dud conditions. A lot of risk of thunderstorms, onshore or cross-onshore winds, and weak, messy swell. It’s going to be a struggle to find anything worth paddling out for. This is a long, blank run that we just have to sit through.

There’s a flicker of improvement on Saturday the 15th morning. It’s glassy, with light easterly wind, but the swell is tiny at 2ft from the south and the wave energy is weak (140). It’s surfable, but very ordinary.

The first real turning point comes on Wednesday the 19th. The morning looks good—glassy conditions with a light northeasterly, and the swell bumps up to 4ft from the ESE. The wave energy is moderate (265) and the wave comment says to expect good surf conditions. That’s our first true window of opportunity.

Friday the 21st morning is another standout. Glassy again, with a northeasterly breeze, and a solid 4ft south swell pushing in with moderate energy (317). Waves should be clean and have some shape.

The big one, the real standout of the entire forecast, lands on Tuesday the 25th. The morning is glassy, with zero wind from the north-northeast. We’re looking at a 7ft swell from the ESE with a very long period of 14 seconds. The combined energy is massive at 1978, and the report says it’s excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers. That’s a proper groundswell. That long period will make it pitchy and powerful, especially on a reef setup like Tainohama. This is only for the advanced crew—7ft at this period is serious.

After that, the forecast gets wild but messy. Thursday the 27th morning sees a solid 8ft swell from the ESE with a 15-second period, and energy through the roof at 2644. But the onshore southerly wind (15 km/h) is going to chop it up, so it’s marginal at best. By Friday the 28th, we’re looking at massive 16ft to 18ft ESE swells with that same long period, but the wind is honking cross-onshore at 25 to 30 km/h. For paddle surfing, it’s going to be a washing machine and not recommended. That setup with that much swell and wind might actually be more interesting for kite surfing.

So to sum it up: suffer through the first week, mark your calendar for the 19th and 21st mornings for some clean, smaller fun, but the absolute highlight is the morning of Tuesday the 25th for experienced surfers chasing a powerful, glassy groundswell.

Stay stoked, and check the forecasts again closer to the 25th—long-range standouts like that are promising but can shift.

Rusty.

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