Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, checking in with a long-range look at the only break on the menu for this stretch.

Right off the bat, we're looking at a slow start. The first couple of days are pretty flat and uninspiring. There's a bit of knee-high slop around on Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st, but it’s barely worth wetting a wetsuit for. The water temp is sitting at a balmy 83°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be cold while you're sitting there doing nothing.

We’ve got a real gap in quality surf until we start seeing some signs of life rolling in on Sunday the 2nd of August. The swell starts to fill in, but the conditions are still questionable.

Now, the real standout of this whole 16-day period is shaping up for Monday the 3rd of August. Early morning, there’s a solid 6ft swell pushing in from the ESE, and it’s got some grunt with a period of 16 seconds. The combined energy is very strong (1622), and we’ve got a light offshore wind from the NE keeping things clean. This is excellent for experienced surfers—the kind of session you wait for. It’s a little too much for the beginners though.

It gets even bigger and better from there, but with a big caveat. Tuesday the 4th of August morning is looking absolutely pumping with a 10ft, 17-second groundswell from the ESE. The energy goes through the roof (4390), and it is glassy offshore. This is expert territory only, and the waves will be long, powerful lines. The problem is, Tainohama is an advanced reef break that gets exposed, and when the swell gets over 8ft, it's strictly for the big dogs.

By Wednesday the 5th of August, we’re talking seriously heavy water. The swell pumps up to 15ft in the morning and 18ft in the afternoon, with an incredible 18-second period. The combined energy is astronomical (17650+). While the wind is glassy in the afternoon, the forecast is clear: the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. Unless you’re on a jet ski, this is a spectacle, not a session.

After that massive pulse, things settle down but stay messy through the second week. From the 8th of August onward, we're dealing with onshore winds, lumpy conditions, and a lot of “marginal” or “poor” reads. The swell drops off, and the wind swings onshore, making for choppy, ropy waves that are tough to surf. The period also drops out, with shorter-period windswell taking over by the 9th. There’s a little bump in swell around the 12th and 13th, but the wind is all wrong—mostly cross-onshore or onshore, so the quality just isn't there.

Bottom line: Your best bet is the Monday the 3rd of August morning session if you're an experienced surfer looking for proper groundswell with clean conditions. The Tuesday the 4th morning is also a standout, but only for experts. After that, the window slams shut for good waves for the rest of the outlook. Keep an eye on it, but don't hold your breath.

- Rusty

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