Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Tainohama. We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the back half of this 16-day window is where the real story is.

First up, the water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, running at 84°, so a degree and a half above average—nothing crazy, but it’s a nice little bonus.

The first few days are pretty flat and ordinary. Tuesday morning the 28th has glassy conditions with a tiny 2ft SE swell, but the energy is a weak 115, and the wave quality is just "surfable." That’s the best of a quiet bunch until Wednesday morning the 29th, when it’s dead calm and glassy again, but still only 2ft. We get a run of poor conditions from Thursday through to Sunday, with a mix of cross-shore wind and really weak energy levels dropping into the 30s and 40s. Not worth paddling out for.

Monday morning the 3rd of August is where things start to get interesting. The wind goes glassy, and we see a clean 5ft ESE groundswell rolling in with a solid 15-second period. The energy jumps to 939 (moderate), and the conditions are described as "very good." This is the first real standout. The swell direction is coming from the ESE, which is close to the optimum S direction, so it should wrap in nicely. The period is long, so Tainohama’s reef setup will be the spot to be. Keep in mind, this is a bit of a punch for a beginner, but for the crew that knows this break, it’ll be worth it.

Tuesday the 4th gets bigger, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Morning sees 8ft ESE swell with a massive 4480 energy, but the wind is onshore and the report flags it as marginal. By the afternoon, it’s 12ft and the wind swings cross-onshore, making it choppy. That’s expert territory, and the size will be too much for most.

Wednesday the 5th is the big one. We’re looking at 16ft ESE swell in the morning with a 16-second period and an insane 16880 energy. The wind is clean and cross-offshore from the NNE. That’s a massive, powerful groundswell, and the report says the wind and tide are favorable. However, that size is well beyond what most people should be in the water for. It’s a proper big-wave day, expert only. The afternoon holds at 18ft with similar energy.

Thursday the 6th drops back to 12ft but still has a clean cross-off breeze. The energy is still huge at 5099. The swell direction swings around to the SW later in the day, which isn’t ideal for Tainohama, and the period drops to 9 seconds, so it gets a bit lumpy. Friday the 7th through to Sunday the 9th is a write-off. Strong winds from the east and southeast (25 mph) and messy, poor conditions with short-period, choppy swell. Energy is all over the place, but the wind is just too strong for good surfing.

Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th see the wind finally calm down, but the swell is still messy and onshore. The best of the second week actually lands on Tuesday the 11th afternoon. We’ve got 8ft SE swell, clean cross-off wind from the NNE, and the conditions are called "excellent for experienced surfers." The energy is 1074, which is solid. This is a good window for the stronger paddlers.

Wednesday the 12th morning looks like the final highlight. 10ft ESE swell with a long 10-second period, clean cross-off wind from the NE, and energy of 3008. The report says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That’s a big, clean swell. The wind is light, and the direction is good. After that, the wind goes onshore again in the afternoon, so get it in the morning.

So, to wrap it up: the first few days are flat. The best on offer is Monday morning the 3rd of August for a solid, clean 5ft swell, and the standout for the bigger crew is Wednesday the 12th of August morning for the 10ft clean groundswell. The 5th of August is enormous, but only for the brave and the experienced.

Rusty.

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