Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break this down. Over the next 16 days, we’ve got a solid pulse of swell early on, then a long slow fade into tiny, choppy conditions. The highlight is right at the start, so don’t sleep on it.

Kicking off at Tainohama, Sunday the 12th is packing a punch. We’re talking a 8ft SSW groundswell with a 14-second period, pushing a massive 2771 units of energy. That’s serious power. Wind is glassy, SSE at just 3 mph, so it’ll be smooth. Water temp is 77°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. This one’s for the experts only – that size is going to be too much for beginners. The optimum swell direction is south, and this SSW is close enough, working well on this exposed reef.

Monday the 13th is still very good. We’ve got a 5ft SSW swell, period dropping to 12 seconds, with 707 units of energy. It’s glassy again with no wind in the morning, then a slight S wind in the afternoon. Still clean, perfect conditions. That morning glass-off is going to be sweet. Monday afternoon sees the swell drop a touch to 5ft, but still excellent.

Tuesday the 14th is still surfable and clean, but the size is dropping – 3ft in the morning, 3ft in the afternoon. Cross-offshore winds keep it clean. Good for a fun session, but nothing special compared to the weekend.

From Wednesday the 15th onward, it fades fast. Swell drops to 2ft, glassy in the morning but onshore wind in the afternoon makes it poor. There’s a real gap of several days where the surf is either tiny, blown out, or both. Thursday the 16th is similar – 2ft with onshore wind and rain showers. Friday the 17th is a total write-off with onshore winds and a confusing mix of swells.

The next chance of anything decent comes on Saturday the 18th. We get a 5ft ESE swell, but it’s from the east-southeast and the wind is onshore from the SSE at 6 mph. It’s marginal at best.

Sunday the 19th is similar, with a 7ft ESE swell in the afternoon, but onshore winds again make it messy. That’s a lot of energy (1603 units) but the conditions aren’t cooperating.

Monday the 20th is interesting. We get a return of glassy conditions in the morning with a 6ft ESE swell and 1056 units of energy. Wind is SE at just 3 mph, glassy. This is an excellent session for experienced surfers again, but the swell direction is ESE, not the optimum south. Still, when it’s glassy and that size, you don’t complain.

From Tuesday the 21st onward, it’s a slow decline. Small, clean waves on Tuesday morning (4ft) with cross-offshore wind, then downhill into sub-2ft territory for the rest of the week. By Thursday the 23rd, we’re at 2ft and by the weekend of the 26th and 27th of July, it’s barely breaking at 1ft with onshore winds. That’s a long, flat end to the outlook.

So, to wrap it up: get in the water on Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th. That’s the real deal. Everything after that is either smaller, wind-affected, or both, until a brief but clean window on Monday the 20th.

Rusty.

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