Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this is a tough one for the Tainohama area. You’re not going to want to paddle out for a solid week, and then things get weird. Let’s get into it.

The first two weeks are a real mixed bag, but mostly flat. From Saturday the 18th right through to the morning of Thursday the 25th, there’s essentially nothing doing. Day after day of tiny, weak swell – we’re talking 1.0ft to 1ft from the ESE, with next to no energy in the water (combined energy hanging around 30 to 84). The winds are all over the shop, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the wave comment is “poor surf conditions” all the way. Even the glassy mornings on the 22nd and 23rd are wasted on waves that wouldn’t push a duck. It’s a full seven-day stretch of frustration.

Now, the morning of Thursday the 25th is the first real glimmer. There’s a bit of juice from the SE at 1ft, with a decent period of 16 seconds, and the combined energy tickles up to 137 (moderate). The wind is glassy, ENE at 5 km/h. The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” and the score is a 1. It’s not great, but it’s the first thing you could actually sit on. The water temp is sitting at 81°, with the anomaly at 1°, so it’s slightly warmer than average for the time of year. Same deal on the 26th – still small, still cross-shore winds, still not worth a paddle.

Finally, on Monday the 27th , things start to shift. The morning has a 4ft swell from the SE at 16 seconds, with the combined energy jumping to 1203 (strong). Wind is light onshore from the SSE at 5 km/h. The score is a 3, and it’s described as “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” That’s the first real window, but it’s not a standout.

The standout – and I mean the only real standout in this whole 16-day window – is Tuesday morning the 28th. This is the one to mark on your calendar. Tainohama is a reef break, advanced only, and it’s fairly consistent. The swell direction from the SE is right on its optimum (S), so that’s a sweet match. The morning delivers a clean 12ft SE groundswell with a period of 14 seconds (long period), and the combined energy is a massive 4208 (very strong). The wind is glassy – dead calm from the ESE at 5 km/h. The wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and it scores a 5. This is heavy, powerful, and clean. But listen – 12ft is expert territory only. Don’t even think about it on a shortboard if you’re not solid.

The drop-off is brutal. That afternoon, the wind swings onshore from the SSE at 20 km/h, and the swell jumps to 15ft, but the conditions collapse. The score drops to zero. Then Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th see massive, dangerous swell – 20ft to 34ft – with strong cross-onshore winds and energy levels through the roof (17,128 to 56,100). The wave comment for these says “wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break.” It’s a high-score 11, but it’s a warning, not an invitation. This is for the tow-in crew or the kamikaze. Definitely not a beginner spot – and with crowds sometimes, you’d be in the way.

After that, it’s a mess. Friday the 31st has gale-force winds (65 km/h from the SSE) and messy 12ft to 18ft swell. The first week of August sees the swell drop back to 3ft to 5ft, but the winds are still onshore or cross-onshore, and the scores are zeros and ones. The window closes fast.

So, bottom line: if you’re an expert, Tuesday morning the 28th is the only true standout. Glassy, big, powerful, and clean. Everything else is either flat, marginal, or too dangerous. The water temperature is slightly warmer than average for the season.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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