Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I'm looking at the swell charts for the next couple of weeks. It's a mixed bag, to be honest. We've got some decent windows of fun waves, but we're also gonna have to sit through some flat spells. The only real spot on the radar is Tainohama, a reef break for the advanced crew. The water temp is sitting at 85°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year.

The first chance to get wet is Saturday the 5th, but it's marginal at best. You're looking at waist-high waves, around 3ft, from the south. The wind is a cross-off from the north, so it'll be clean, but the combined energy is weak. It's a "gentle breeze" out there, but the conditions are just ordinary. This one is a skip.

The weekend of the 6th and 7th is where things get interesting, but it gets messy. Sunday the 6th sees a jump in size, with 7ft to 8ft from the ESE. That's pushing into expert territory. The energy is strong, but the wind is a moderate cross-off from the north, making it choppy. The forecast notes say "marginal surf," which is a bummer because the swell is there. Monday the 7th is similar, with 5ft to 6ft SE swell, but the wind is a fresh, 25 km/h cross-off, making for "marginal" conditions.

Now, the best window of the whole forecast is shaping up for Wednesday the 9th. The morning is looking good, with 6ft of SE swell, light winds, and the forecast is calling for "very good surf conditions." The combined energy is moderate. The afternoon gets even better, with the wind switching to a true offshore from the north, making it "moderate offshore and clean." The swell drops a touch to 5ft from the SSE, but it'll be smooth. That's your standout session. Get on it.

After that, it's downhill. Thursday the 10th is a write-off with a fresh, 30 km/h cross-off wind and poor surf. The swell drops right down. There's a little pulse on the 11th with 5ft ESE swell and a gentle offshore wind, giving "good" conditions, but the period is a short 7 seconds, so it'll be a bit walled-off. The 13th has a bit of a longer period, 11-second swell, but it's only 3ft from the south, so nothing to write home about.

Then we hit a long, flat run. From the 14th onwards, the swell fades and the wind turns onshore. There's a tiny, glassy 2ft wave on the 16th, but that's it. The 17th, 18th, 19th, and 20th are all flat. The combined energy drops to 75 or less, with most of it in the 20s and 30s. That's a full week of nothing to do but check the tide pools.

So, to wrap it up: the real standout is Wednesday the 9th. The morning is good, but the afternoon with that offshore wind is the true winner. The rest of the window is either too lumpy, too big, or too small. The long flat spell at the end means don't get your hopes up for the second week.

Rusty.

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