Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, gather ‘round. Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Tainohama over the next couple of weeks. It's a bit of a story, so bear with me.

First up, we’ve got a solid pulse of southerly groundswell hitting Friday the 10th. This is the main event early on. We’re looking at 12 ft swell from the south, with a very long 17 second period. That’s proper energy – the combined energy reading is a hefty 6964, so there’s plenty of push. The water is sitting at 25°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you might want a spring suit if you're sensitive. Now, the catch here is the wind. Friday morning is a light cross-onshore from the south, and it stays cross-onshore through the afternoon, getting a bit stronger and choppier. The surf report calls it marginal, and I’d agree. The waves will be big and powerful, but that wind will mess with the face. This is advanced territory at 12 ft, way too big for beginners. It’s a reef break, so that long-period groundswell will be wrapping in, but with the onshore component, it’s going to be a battle.

Saturday the 11th keeps the size up at 13 ft from the south-southwest, still with a long 17 second period. The combined energy is massive, over 8000. The morning has an onshore wind, but the afternoon picks up a cross-onshore again. The report gives it a 7, which is the highest score in this stretch, but still flags marginal conditions. Honestly, with that size and a persistent cross-onshore, it’s going to be heavy, messy, and only for the very experienced. Not the cleanest window.

Then, Sunday the 12th is where it gets interesting. The swell drops to a still-chunky 10 ft from the south-southwest in the morning, but the wind goes glassy out of the northeast. That is the magic word: glassy. The combined energy is still strong at 4833. For experienced surfers, this is the standout of the first week. The afternoon sees a drop to 8 ft, still glassy from the south. This is your best bet for clean, big waves. Crowds are listed as “sometimes,” but on a Sunday with clean conditions and a solid swell, expect company at Tainohama.

Monday the 13th, the swell drops off fast to 5 ft with a 12 second period, and the morning is dead calm – glassy, with a west wind at 0 km/h. The energy is down to 692, but it’ll be clean and surfable for a wider range of skill levels. The afternoon gets messy with a cross-shore breeze and the threat of storms.

After that, we hit a long, flat spell. From Tuesday the 14th right through to Wednesday the 22nd, the swell is tiny, mostly below 3 ft, with poor onshore winds and scores of zero. There’s a brief moment of glass on the 18th and 20th, but the swell is so small it’s barely worth a paddle. That’s a solid 9-day gap of poor to non-existent surf.

The outlook improves toward the end of the run. Thursday the 23rd, a new easterly-southeast swell builds to 5 ft with a 12 second period. The combined energy is 764, moderate, but the wind is a clean cross-offshore from the northeast at 9 mph. That’s a promising turn, though it’s still a week and a half away.

Friday the 24th looks like the second standout. A 5 ft swell from the south-southwest, 12 second period, and a solid offshore wind from the north-northwest at 16 mph. The energy reading is 1049 in the afternoon, and the forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That is far out, so don’t book the time off yet, but keep it on the radar.

Saturday the 25th holds similar size at 5 ft, but the wind goes cross-offshore, and the afternoon brings rain showers and a cross-on breeze, so the window might be tight.

To sum it up: the real action is this weekend. Sunday the 12th morning is your golden window – big, glassy, and clean at Tainohama. The following week is a write-off. There’s a flicker of hope around the 23rd and 24th, but that’s a long way off and less certain. Keep an eye on the charts.

Rusty.

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