Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Tainohama over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – the first part of this forecast is pretty grim, but there’s a monster hiding at the end that has my full attention. Stick with it.

The next ten days or so are going to be a real test of patience. From Thursday the 10th of September right through to around the 18th, the surf is mostly small, weak, and messy. You’ll see ankle-to-waist high waves at best, with the combined energy barely cracking 100 to maybe 300 (moderate wave energy) on a couple of afternoons, but the conditions just aren't there. Winds are mostly cross-off or onshore, and there’s a lot of rain and even thunderstorm risks to deal with. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

Things stay lackluster through the middle of the month. There’s a little spike in energy around Monday the 14th, pushing into the moderate range (302), but the wind is straight onshore and the wave comment says it all – poor surf. Not worth suiting up for.

Now, hold on to your board. Things take a dramatic turn on Sunday the 20th of September. That morning, a very long-period groundswell (17 seconds) starts rolling in from the SE, pushing the swell up to 8 ft. That’s expert territory, folks. The wind is light and cross-off, making it clean. The combined energy is a massive 3862 (strong wave energy). This is the real deal for experienced surfers only.

But the true standout – and I mean the absolute standout of this whole outlook – happens on Monday the 21st of September. The swell builds to a towering 15 ft from the SSE, with a period of 17 seconds, and it peaks on the Monday afternoon at a ridiculous 18 ft with an 18-second period. The wind is forecast to be glassy, and the combined energy readings are astronomical: 11362 and then 17108. That’s some seriously strong energy. The caveat is that for this break, the swell might actually be too big, even for experts, but if you’re a charger looking for a once-in-a-blue-moon session, that morning window is the one you want to circle. After that, conditions get too big and then turn very windy, so be smart.

Later in the week (Wednesday the 23rd), there’s a brief window of 8 ft to 7 ft swell with strong offshore winds, but the wind speeds are gale-force (85 km/h and 45 km/h), making paddling out a battle and dangerous. Not for the faint of heart.

So, to sum it up: the first week plus is a write-off. The true standouts are the morning of the 21st and possibly the morning of the 20th for the brave. For the rest of us, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more