Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on the table for Tainohama.

Right off the bat, it's a quiet start. For the first few days we're looking at pretty small, weak stuff that's just not worth getting excited about. The combined wave energy is weak – down around 46 to 44 – and the swell is tiny, with short periods. Conditions aren't doing us any favors either, with a lot of onshore or cross-onshore wind and some rain. You're better off leaving the board in the car or doing a reef check at low tide.

We do have a pulse of energy that builds toward the middle of the first week. By Monday the 6th, the combined energy climbs to 161, but it's still a bit messy with cross-onshore wind. On Tuesday the 7th, the swell really starts to kick in with a solid 6ft to 7ft from the southeast, and the period jumps to 16-17 seconds. That's a proper groundswell. The energy is ramping up fast, hitting 1670 by Tuesday morning. But – and it's a big but – the wind is onshore. It’s marginal at best, and those long-period groundswells, especially over 15 seconds, tend to close out beach breaks and can be tricky. The surf is there, but it's not clean. By Wednesday the 8th, we're talking 10ft swell with a massive 5302 energy, but it's all onshore wind. That kind of size with onshore wind and a long period is going to be a battle. Honestly, it might be more interesting for the kite crew than a paddle surfer.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. If you're an experienced surfer, keep an eye on Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th. On Thursday the 9th we’ve got a 13ft swell from the SSE with energy of 7874. The wind is still onshore, so it's not perfect, but the power is undeniable. The standout, and I mean the absolute standout of the entire outlook, is Friday the 10th. The morning is looking exceptional for expert surfers. The swell is a solid 15ft from the S, with a very long period of 17 seconds, and the wind goes glassy – completely offshore from the east at just 3 mph. The combined energy is a massive 13661. That is serious, powerful, clean groundswell. It's going to be big, heavy, and on a reef break like Tainohama, that's what you want. It's going to be a session for the brave.

Following that, Saturday the 11th still has a very solid 12ft swell from the SSW, and the morning is glassy again with light easterly winds. The energy is still a strong 6742. The swell drops back to 6ft on Sunday the 12th, and while the wind is glassy in the morning, the energy is down to 1180, so it's good, but not the same level as Friday.

After that big blast, the second week settles down. We see a drop in size and energy, with a few mornings offering clean conditions but smaller, less powerful waves. The combined energy falls into the low hundreds, and while you might find a clean 4ft wave on Thursday the 16th, it’s not going to be anything like the first week's peak.

To sum it up: your fisherman’s windows are the glassy mornings on the 10th and 11th of July for the big, expert-level stuff. That Friday the 10th morning is the one to circle on the calendar. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or too average.

Rusty.

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