Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. The next couple weeks have got some serious firepower lining up, but you gotta be patient and pick your moments. The start is pretty average, real dribbly, but there’s a proper pulse of energy coming through the end of next week that’s gonna get the heart rate up. Water temp is sitting at 82°F, which is just a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can get away with boardshorts and a rashie.

For the next few days, it’s pretty quiet and mixed. Friday morning at Tainohama you’ve got a small 3ft wave with a short 7-second period, and a cross-off breeze keeping it clean but it’s nothing to get excited about. Saturday is smaller again, with the morning seeing 2ft and the glassy afternoon dropping to 2ft. The energy is weak, around 101 and 91 on the combined scale. There are a few passing storms around, so keep an eye on the sky more than the ocean.

Sunday and Monday are a write-off for a surf. The wind goes onshore and it’s messy with a lack of power. The swell is bouncing around the 2ft to 3ft mark but the conditions are poor, which makes it a struggle. This is where we hit a bit of a lull.

Tuesday the 15th is the first real sign of life as the wind drops out and it goes glassy. We’ve got 4ft of clean, short-period swell and the energy is starting to build up to 228. It’s not big, but it’s clean and surfable, a bit of a reset. Wednesday and Thursday offer similar small waves, but they’re not really doing much.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Friday the 18th, the long-period groundswell starts to fill in. The morning shows 3ft at a huge 18-second period, and the energy reading jumps to 1112. This is proper stuff. The afternoon bumps up to 6ft with the period at 19 seconds, but the wind goes onshore, making it a bit of a diamond in the rough. This is the start of the pulse, a sign of what’s coming.

Saturday the 19th is the first true standout. The swell has kicked up to 15ft in the morning, with a solid 15-second period and moderate energy of 10655. But the wind is a bit cross-onshore. The afternoon is the pick: 13ft, glassy conditions, and energy still at 7063. This is an exceptional day on the cards for experienced surfers.

Sunday the 20th brings a big, raw swell with S/SSE direction, around 10-12ft, but the SE wind makes it a bit lumpy. The energy remains high, but it’s not as clean as Saturday. Monday the 21st is another huge standout. The swell jumps back up to 16ft with a 15-second period, and the wind turns offshore from the N. This has got “exceptional” written all over it, with energy readings over 10600. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

Tuesday the 22nd, we get even bigger, with 21ft forecast in the morning, but it’s just too much for this break. The energy is massive at 11535, but the comment says it’s predicted to be too big. The afternoon backs off to 10ft and gets glassy, which would be excellent if the conditions hold.

After that, the swell drops off fast. Wednesday the 23rd is back to small, weak waves, and by Thursday the 24th, the wind is howling from the SSW at 37 mph, blowing everything out and dropping the swell to a miserable 1.0ft. The combined energy falls to 28, which is about as weak as it gets.

Looking further out, Friday the 25th shows a new swell starting to build with a 16-second period, coming in at 8ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon with clean offshore winds. Energy is back in the 2700-3700 range. Saturday the 26th looks even better, with 12ft and a 16-second period, but the afternoon wind swings onshore.

So, the real standouts are Saturday the 19th and Monday the 21st. Huge, clean, powerful groundswell with offshore winds. That’s the good stuff.

Rusty.

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