Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag for us here. We’ve got a solid start to the week, but the ocean’s going to take a breather after that, with a long stretch of small, messy days. There’s a touch of life around the 14th and again on the 20th, but the real standout is the opening window. Don’t sleep on it.

We’re starting things off right at the beginning of the period. On Monday the 7th, Tainohama has some proper punch. The swell is coming out of the southeast at 5.2ft, with a 9-second period. The energy’s moderate, clocking in at 566. But the big news is the north wind at 15.5 mph, which is blowing offshore and making it glassy clean. There’s a bit of light rain, but that won’t matter when you’re in the water. This is the best chance we’ve got in this whole run, and with the water temp sitting at a warm 83.7°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, it’s a no-brainer. It’s an advanced reef break, so it’ll have some push to it. Get on it early because Monday afternoon drops off a little to 5.9ft but the wind goes cross-offshore and the score dips, and the tide’s looking questionable.

Tuesday the 8th still has some fun waves. The swell backs off a touch to 4.3ft from the south, but the wind is light from the north in the morning, keeping it clean. It’s not as powerful as the day before, but still worth a paddle. The energy is moderate at 471-483. After this, though, the wheels come off a bit.

Wednesday the 9th sees things get messy. The morning is a total write-off with an onshore southerly wind and a bumpy 7.5ft of south-southeast swell. The energy jumps to 841, but it’s going to be a washing machine. The afternoon settles down some with a north offshore wind and the swell drops to 5.6ft, but the quality is still marginal. From Thursday the 10th through the 13th, it’s pretty grim. Swell heights are under 3.6ft, periods are short, and the energy is weak. There are moments of glassy conditions, like Friday the 11th morning and Saturday the 12th morning, but the waves just aren’t there. It’s a real struggle.

Now, there’s a bit of a pulse for Monday the 14th. The swell bumps back up to 3.3-3.6ft from the east-southeast with a 9-10 second period, and the energy rises to a more moderate 241-269. The morning has a light cross-offshore wind from the north-northeast, leaving it clean. It’s not huge, but it’s the best we’ve had in a few days. Don't expect fireworks. The window closes quickly, with the afternoon going onshore and the following days turning poor again. It’s a small blip.

The rest of the week into the following weekend stays quiet. From the 15th to the 18th, it’s small, weak, and mostly onshore. There’s a day on the 17th with a little offshore wind but only 2.0-2.3ft of swell. It’s not worth stressing about.

The final, more distant hope comes in on Saturday the 19th and into Sunday the 20th. On Saturday the 19th, the swell bumps up to 3.9ft but with a super short 6-second period, so it’ll be weak and a bit crumbly. The morning is glassy, but the afternoon gets blown out by a fresh 18.6 mph onshore breeze. The real chance is on Sunday the 20th afternoon. The swell is 3.3ft from the east-southeast, and the wind goes offshore from the north at 15.5 mph, cleaning it right up. The energy is a moderate 220. It’s a promising end to the window, but as it’s so far out, treat it as a hopeful one rather than a certainty. It’s a bit of a famine, then a small feast, but the 20th looks like the second-best day of the whole run.

So, in short: get out there Monday the 7th for the best surf of the period. Then keep an eye on the 20th for the next worthwhile session. Anything in between is mostly for the kite surfers if the wind’s blowing.

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