Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break it down.

We’re looking at a pretty grim stretch ahead for Tainohama. The water’s sitting at about 84°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re waiting for a wave that’s barely worth the paddle.

The outlook kicks off on Wednesday, 26 August, and it’s a rough start. We’ve got a 5ft south swell, but it’s choppy and messy with a moderate cross-onshore wind. The combined energy is moderate at 843, but the surf quality is just poor. Thursday and Friday are more of the same – small, cross-on, and not worth getting excited about. Friday afternoon does see a brief moment of glassy conditions with a tiny 3ft swell, but it’s short-period stuff at 8 seconds, so you’re not getting any real push. The energy drops to 165, which is weak.

The weekend and into next week? Don’t bother. Saturday morning is glassy but the swell is a pathetic 3ft with a period of 7 seconds, and the energy is just 111. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but it’s ordinary. The rest of the weekend is a write-off with cross-on winds and dropping energy.

Now, here’s the thing – the end of the first week and into the second week sees a massive pulse of swell, but it’s all in the wrong conditions. Starting Monday, 1 September, the swell jumps to 7ft, then 8ft, and by Wednesday, 2 September, we’re looking at 12ft to 13ft of south-southeast swell. The combined energy gets into the thousands – 1438, 2139, 2232, and even 3172 – that’s strong to very strong wave energy. But the wind is howling onshore, making it a total mess. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one. There’s a window on Tuesday, 8 September, where the morning sees a 10ft SE swell with a light cross-onshore breeze and a score that suggests it might be worth a look for experienced surfers, but the wind is still cross-on, so it’s not clean. The energy is massive at 4008, but the conditions are marginal at best.

The one standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of Thursday, 10 September. The swell is 10ft from the south, with a very long period of 15 seconds – that’s real groundswell energy. The combined energy is a staggering 4552. But again, the wind is cross-on, and it’s a reef break, so a long-period south swell can get a bit tricky. For the experts who know the ledge, it could offer some serious power, but the onshore wind will ruin the face. It’s a big, powerful, but messy option.

Honestly, for the first week, there’s nothing to recommend. The second week has size and power, but the wind is nearly always onshore or cross-on. The 10th of September morning is the closest thing to a highlight, but it’s far from perfect. If you’re a beginner, stay well away when the swell gets over 5ft, and definitely when it hits 8ft. For the experienced crew, there’s potential on the 8th and 10th, but don’t expect glassy perfection.

Rusty.

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