Tainohama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break down what’s in store for Tainohama. This reef break needs a southerly direction to work its magic, and the next week or so is a bit of a slog before things get properly exciting.

Water temp is sitting around 81°, pretty much normal for the season, so nothing to worry about there.

We start on Thursday the 10th of September. Small stuff, around 3ft from the SSE with a short 8-second period. The wind is cross-off from the north, but it’s not helping – the comment says poor surf, and it’s a tough slog. The combined energy is weak at 146.

Friday the 11th is much the same. Still that 3ft SSE swell, but the wind goes glassy in the morning. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. Energy is still weak at 129.

Saturday the 12th drops to about 3ft from the south. Glassy in the afternoon, but it’s just too small and weak to get the heart racing.

Sunday the 13th through Monday the 14th is a complete write-off. Onshore winds, stormy conditions, the swell is a mess. Energy climbs a bit to 199 on Monday morning, but the wind kills it.

Then, a bit of life. Tuesday the 15th of September. The swell picks up to about 4ft from the SE with a 9-second period. The wind goes glassy in the morning, and the comment says “expect good surf conditions” – the best of the first week by a long shot. The combined energy is moderate at 282. Still a short period, but it’s a winner in this slow patch.

Wednesday the 16th drops back to about 3ft, clean but nothing special.

Now, the real highlight is a long way out. On Friday the 18th of September, in the afternoon, we see a massive jump in period – 19 seconds from the ESE. The swell height is only about 2ft, but the combined energy rockets to 531, which is strong for that size. The comment says “expect very good surf conditions” and with glassy offshore winds, it’s a promising sign for the reef. The direction is off the optimum, but the quality of the swell could still produce some clean, long lines.

Then, the big one. Saturday the 19th of September sees a huge jump in size. 12ft in the morning, 13ft in the afternoon, with an 18-second period from the SE. The combined energy is enormous – 8213 in the morning, 10889 in the afternoon. That’s a serious, very long-period groundswell. However, the wind is onshore from the SSE, and the comment calls it “marginal”. This is big, raw, and dangerous – experts only.

But the absolute standout is Sunday the 20th of September. The wind goes glassy, and the swell peaks at 16ft in the morning and 18ft in the afternoon from the SE, with a 17-second period. The combined energy is astronomical – 14992 in the morning, 15753 in the afternoon. The comment says “exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers” in the morning. In the afternoon, the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is a world-class event for those who know what they’re doing. The direction is close to the optimum, and with glassy conditions, it will be absolutely pumping on the reef. This is the one to circle. Crowds? Tainohama is listed as “sometimes” crowded, so on a day like this, expect a lineup.

Monday the 21st of September drops to 12ft in the morning with a 15-second period from the ESE, still glassy, and the comment says “exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers”. A solid follow-up day.

After that, it all fades fast. Tuesday the 22nd onwards is small, windy, and poor. A classic case of a massive pulse and then nothing.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a struggle with one decent window on Tuesday the 15th. The real action is a week away. Friday the 18th shows the first signs of the groundswell, but Sunday the 20th of September is the absolute standout – a massive, clean, long-period SE groundswell for experts only. Don’t sleep on Monday the 21st either.

Rusty.

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