Tsurigasaki Surfing Beach (Tokyo 2020) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and I’m looking at the surf outlook for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first week or so is pretty flat and uninspiring. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, weak surf with mediocre conditions. The first few days from Wednesday the 29th through to Saturday the 1st of August, you’ve got tiny waves, mostly under 2ft, and the energy is pathetic (56 to 112 combined energy). The wind is a mixed bag – some glassy moments on Thursday morning, but mostly cross-onshore or onshore. It’s surfable, but you’ll be working for scraps.

Then Sunday the 2nd of August, things start to change. The swell picks up to 4ft from the SE, and the period jumps to 15 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The energy kicks up to 608 and 702, but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, so it’s gonna be a bit messy. Not a total write-off, but definitely not a standout.

Now, the real story is from Monday the 3rd of August onward. The swell builds fast. By Monday morning, we’ve got 7ft at 17 seconds from the SE, and the energy is massive at 2856. By the afternoon, it’s 8ft at 18 seconds, energy 4216. This is serious groundswell. But – and it’s a big but – the wind is onshore from the NE and ENE, 12 mph. That’s going to chop it up. The break is Tsurigasaki Surfing Beach (Tokyo 2020), an exposed beach break, and with that long period, it’s going to be breaking straight and messy. This is more for the experts or maybe even kite surfers, because paddle surfing into that onshore wind and big, straight lines is going to be a battle.

Tuesday the 4th gets even bigger – 12ft to 13ft, 17-second period, with energy up to 8431. But the wind is howling onshore at 15-19 mph. The surf will be huge, powerful, and ugly. This is a "leave it to the pros" or "kite day" kind of situation.

Wednesday the 5th of August is where it gets crazy. The swell hits 18ft, 17-second period, and the energy is off the charts at 17673 and 18456. The wind is cross-onshore from the NNE at 22 mph. The forecast notes say the swell is too big for this break. I’d agree. This is a serious, dangerous, massive swell. Unless you’re a seasoned big-wave charger, stay on the beach. The same goes for Thursday the 6th, with 20ft and 18ft swells and strong cross-onshore winds.

Things start to drop off from Friday the 7th, but it’s still a solid 10ft on Friday and 8ft on Saturday, but with stormy, cross-shore winds and storms brewing. The quality is poor.

By Sunday the 9th, the swell drops to a more manageable 6ft and 5ft, and the wind finally turns cross-offshore from the S. The energy is still high (1705, 1358) and the conditions are clean. That’s the first real window of decent, clean surf in the whole outlook. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual to report.

The final few days, from Monday the 10th to Thursday the 13th, see the swell fade to 3ft to 4ft, with clean cross-offshore winds on the 10th, 11th, and 12th, but the energy is low (367 to 574). It’s small but clean – a good option for a longboard or a funboard, but not a standout.

So, the only true standout? I’d say Sunday the 9th of August. The swell is a solid 5ft-6ft from the ESE, with a long 15-second period, and the wind is clean, cross-offshore from the S. That’s the best combo of size, shape, and clean conditions we get. The crowds are "sometimes" an issue at Tsurigasaki, so on a Sunday with that swell, expect a few heads out. It’s inconsistent, but when it comes, it’ll be the best of the fortnight.

The rest of the window is either too small, too windy, or too big and dangerous. The long gap of poor surf from the start until the 9th is a real drag.

Rusty.

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