Katagai Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down for Katagai (breakwater).

The water temp is 74°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year – about 3° cooler – so you might want a slightly thicker spring suit, mate.

The forecast starts off pretty flat and ugly. We’ve got a small, long-period swell from the south on Sunday the 12th, around 4 ft, but the wind is a cross-shore breeze from the southwest at 9 mph, and it’s creating a bit of cross-chop. The combined swell energy is only 688 – weak, and the wave comment says it’s marginal. Not worth paddling out for. That pattern hangs around through Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, all the way through to Friday the 17th – tiny surf, poor conditions, and the wind’s mostly cross-onshore. The swell energy drops to as low as 57 on Wednesday the 15th. Dead period.

Then we get a brief pulse on Saturday the 18th. The swell jumps to 8 ft from the southeast, with a period of 12 seconds – that’s a decent groundswell. The combined energy hits 1828, which is strong. But here’s the catch: the wind is cross-onshore from the east at 9 mph, so it’s going to be choppy and messy. The wave comment says marginal, and honestly, for a breakwater setup, that size with cross-onshore wind is more of a washout than a gem. Only for the experienced if you’re desperate, but not a standout.

The following week, from Sunday the 19th through to Wednesday the 22nd, the swell drops back to 3–7 ft, but the wind stays mostly cross-onshore or onshore, keeping things choppy. On Tuesday the 21st afternoon, we get an onshore wind and a 4 ft swell from the southeast with a 14-second period – that’s a long-period groundswell, which could wrap nicely at a breakwater, but the combined energy is 754 (moderate) and the conditions are still called marginal. Not clean enough to get excited about.

Then from Thursday the 23rd through to the end of the outlook on Monday the 27th, it’s more of the same: swell sizes from 3 ft to 6 ft, but the wind is always cross-onshore or onshore, with speeds up to 19 mph on Friday the 24th afternoon. That’s fresh and lumpy. The combined energy gets up to 921 on Saturday the 25th afternoon, but the wind is 16 mph from the south – just messy.

The standout moment? Honestly, there isn’t a true standout here. The best chance might be Sunday the 19th morning, with a 5 ft SE swell at 9 seconds and east wind at 9 mph cross-onshore – it’s still poor, but at least it’s not huge or howling. The wave comment says poor conditions though, so keep your expectations low. For a breakwater, the swell direction from the southeast is right in the optimum window, but without clean wind, it’s just not going to happen.

There’s a gap of several days with no real recommendations – basically the whole 16-day window is a write-off. If you’re a kitesurfer, that Saturday the 18th with 8 ft and cross-onshore wind might be your thing, but for paddle surfing, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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