Omaezaki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag. We’ve got a slow, small start, a proper pulse of energy that builds and then blows out, and a messy finish. Don’t get too excited about the first few days, but keep an eye on the middle of the run. There’s gonna be one standout window that’s worth planning around, but it ain't for the faint of heart.

Right now, the water’s sitting at just over 80°, which is about average for this time of year, so no need to dig out the hood. The first solid option we see is on Thursday afternoon at Omaezaki. We’re looking at a clean, 4-foot south swell, with a gentle offshore wind. It’s not big, but it should be tidy and user-friendly. That’s a good one for getting the cobwebs out.

Friday drops off a fair bit. We’re down to about 3 to 3 feet. The morning is clean but the energy’s weak, and the afternoon, while still clean, is nothing to write home about. The swell’s still from the south but it’s losing its grunt. Saturday is a similar story, a bit of south-southeast swell but it's small. The highlight will be the clean conditions, but paddling around on 2-foot waves is more about keeping the arms moving than getting barreled.

Sunday and Monday are much the same, with that small, clean surf sticking around. The ESE winds keep things tidy, which is nice. There’s plenty of time to hang out and chat in the water, with waves in the 2-foot range. The period’s still good, around 13 seconds, so there’s some push in them, but they just don’t have the size to get you excited.

Now, Tuesday the 15th morning is another little bump. The northeast wind goes light, and we get a 3-foot south-southeast swell. It’s clean and should be a fun little wave. That’s the pick of this first stretch before it gets all a bit jumpy. Wednesday the 16th is back to small, but that morning looks super glassy, which is always a bonus. The swell is a little jumbly, coming from the east-southeast, but that glassy surface will make it look better than it is.

Here’s where it starts to get interesting. That Friday afternoon the 18th, a pulse of longer-period, southeast groundswell rolls in, jumping the period up to 18 seconds and the energy reading to 599. That’s a solid increase in power. Expect the waves to start pushing up to the 3-foot mark, and with light offshore winds, this is your first real taste of quality. It’s clean, it’s got power, and it’s a sign of things to come.

This is the main event. Saturday the 19th, that southeast swell decides to show its full hand. We’re looking at a solid 11 to 12 feet of southeast swell with a period around 18 seconds. The winds are favorable, but this is big. The combined energy is hitting a massive 7562, which is a huge amount of water moving around. This swell is serious. It’s generating 11-foot waves, and at that size, Omaezaki starts to close out and get heavy.

But it doesn’t stop there. Sunday the 20th, it just gets bigger. 13 feet, then nearly 15 feet in the afternoon, with the energy reading jumping up to 8940 and then over 11,000. This is starting to get properly scary. The all-time big one hits on Monday morning the 21st, with a monstrous 28 feet of south-southeast swell and an energy reading of 58,672. That is an immense amount of swelling. For this break, this is way, way, way too big. It’s not a surfer’s wave any more, it’s a reef-breaking, ocean-moving event. The description says it all, "the swell is predicted to be too big for this break." For anyone but the most seasoned of big-wave chargers, this is a major pass. Even by the afternoon, it’s still at 10 feet, which is still a solid, expert-only size.

After that monster, things settle down quickly. The rest of the run, from Tuesday the 22nd onwards, is messy and unpredictable. There are some bumps in the 4 to 6-foot range with offshore winds, but the energy is not only weaker but also rotating, which makes for a confused ocean. By the 23rd, the energy drops off and the wind swings onshore, which trashes the surf. The final days of the 24th and 25th are a write-off, with strong onshore winds and rain. It’s not looking good for the paddlers then.

So here’s the bottom line. The small, clean stuff in the middle of the period is fun for a splash, but the real standout is that big, powerful southeast groundswell from the 18th through the 21st. The Friday the 18th looks like a sneaky-good one, but the size of the weekend swell is for a very select crowd. For most of us, it’s a great week to get the skis serviced, or maybe just check out the show from the cliffs. The surf after that is not worth your time.

Rusty.

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