Omaezaki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m gonna level with you: the next two weeks at Omaezaki are a real mixed bag, and you’ll need to be patient. We’ve got a massive gap of nothing good to start, then a few days of hope, before things get completely out of control.

Right now, through the end of this week, it’s a write-off. The wind is messy, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is tiny and weak. The combined energy is struggling to even hit 100 (96), so we’re looking at flat, choppy conditions. There’s a brief moment on Wednesday morning, 22nd July, when it goes glassy with a 3ft swell from the SW, but the period is a super short 5 seconds, which means it’ll be weak and lumpy. It’s surfable, but you’d be working hard for nothing special. The water temp is a normal 80°, so no surprises there.

The next few days, 23rd to 26th July, are still tiny. The swell stays under 3ft, and though there are a few clean windows with light offshore or cross-offshore breezes, the energy is still low (under 100 most of the time). It’s a struggle to get excited. We’ve got a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions here.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, but also dangerous. Starting Monday, 27th July, the swell starts to build. By Tuesday morning, 28th July, we’re looking at a 10ft S swell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 3448. That’s a serious amount of water moving, but the wind is a fresh cross-onshore, so it’ll be lumpy and messy. This is getting into expert-only territory fast.

The absolute standout, if you are a very experienced surfer who knows Omaezaki (Shizuoka), is Wednesday morning, 29th July. The forecast shows a massive 13ft groundswell from the SSW, with a very long 15-second period. The wind is glassy, zero. The combined energy is a staggering 6849. The file says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is not for beginners. It’s a monster. This is the one day in the entire 16-day window that has the quality and conditions to be truly special, but only for the brave.

Thursday, 30th July, is still huge, with a 16ft swell and similar energy, but the wind is onshore again, so it’s a loss. Friday, 31st July, sees the swell peak at 26ft to 33ft, with a 15-second period and strong offshore winds, but the energy is astronomical (over 80,000). It’s way too big for anyone.

After that, it starts to drop, but the wind stays strong. Saturday and Sunday, 1st and 2nd August, are still too big and windy for good surfing. The best chance after the big swell might be Tuesday morning, 4th August, with a 3ft ESE swell, a 12-second period, and light cross-offshore winds. The combined energy is 335, which is moderate, and the report says “expect good surf conditions.” It’s a small window of clean, manageable waves, but it’s a long way off.

So, the one true standout is Wednesday, 29th July, for the massive, glassy, but dangerous groundswell. Everything else is either flat, windy, or too big. Keep your eyes on the forecast, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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