Omaezaki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next stretch is all about one spot, and honestly, it’s a beast of a forecast. We’ve got a solid, powerful run of southerly groundswell lining up for Omaezaki, but the catch is that it’s coming in way too big for the break. The energy is massive, with readings in the 6000s to 9000s range, so there’s no shortage of power. But the waves are going to be hefty, pushing the 11.5ft to 13ft mark, and that’s expert territory. For the beginner crew, this is a serious “stay on the beach” kind of week. The wind is mostly offshore or cross-offshore, which will keep things clean, but the sheer size is the defining factor.

So, the pattern starts Wednesday morning, August 5th. It’s a clear sky, with a moderate NE offshore wind, and we’re looking at an 11.5ft swell from the southeast with a 16-second period. That’s a long-period groundswell, and it’s going to be pushing a ton of water. The energy is strong, sitting at 6159. The wind is good, but the size is the problem. It’s just too big for this break. This continues into the afternoon, with the wind shifting a bit more easterly, but the size stays the same, and the energy jumps to 5885.

Thursday, August 6th, brings a bit of a drop in size, down to 10ft, but the swell direction shifts to the SSE. The period is 13 seconds, and the energy is still considerable at 3993. The morning has a clean offshore wind, but again, it’s a big one. The afternoon sees the size back up to 11.5ft with a stronger E wind, and the energy is 4127.

Friday, August 7th, the swell is back to a solid 11.5ft from the south, with a 14-second period. The morning has a fresh offshore ENE wind, and the energy is 5050. The afternoon is similar, but the wind is a bit more cross-off. It’s still all about size.

Saturday, August 8th, we see an 11.5ft swell from the SSW. The morning has a lighter offshore wind, but the energy is still high at 4740. The afternoon gets a fresh ESE wind, pushing the energy up to 5169.

Then, Sunday, August 9th looks like the peak of this giant run. The swell jumps to 13ft from the SSW, with a 16-second period. The morning energy is a huge 8340, and the afternoon is even bigger at 9444. This is a massive, powerful swell. The wind is cross-off, but it doesn’t matter. This is for experts only, and even for them, it’s going to be a war zone.

Monday, August 10th, the swell eases slightly back to 11.5ft, but it’s still from the SSW with a 16-second period. The energy is still very strong, at 6703 in the morning and 6892 in the afternoon. The winds are offshore and cross-offshore, keeping it clean, but the size is still too much.

Then we hit the change. Tuesday, August 11th, the swell drops to 8.2ft, but the wind becomes a strong, 28 mph offshore breeze. It’s clean, but it’s going to be hard to paddle into. The energy is down to 3606, but that wind is a big factor. The scores drop here, and it’s not looking like a great option.

Wednesday, August 12th, the swell is down to 5.9ft, and the wind is still fresh offshore. The energy is moderate at 1510. It’s cleaner, but the size is getting smaller.

Thursday, August 13th, is a real tease. The morning is glassy, with no wind at all, and the swell is 5.6ft. The energy is 876. The comment says “expect very good surf conditions,” but the score is low. It’s a bit of a head-scratcher, but the glassy conditions are a huge plus. The afternoon, however, turns to light rain and a cross-on wind, making it choppy.

From Friday, August 14th onwards, the swell drops off quickly. We’re looking at 4.9ft, then 4.3ft, then 3.9ft, and by Sunday, August 16th, it’s down to under 3ft. The energy drops into the low hundreds. The wind stays mostly cross-off or clean, but there’s just not enough swell to get excited about. There’s a small bump on Monday evening, August 17th, with a 4.3ft swell, but it’s cross-on and choppy. Tuesday and Wednesday of the second week have some cleaner, waist-high options in the 3.9ft to 4.6ft range, but it’s a far cry from the opening days.

So, the honest takeaway is this: the first five days are a massive, powerful, and potentially dangerous swell. The conditions will be clean, but the size is the story. If you’re an expert with a big wave board and a death wish, go for it. But for the vast majority, the best bet is to watch from the shore and enjoy the show. The second week is far too small

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