Ohara Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at the next couple of weeks for your stretch of coast. The short version is this: the ocean is going to get angry before it gets good, and the only real window for a proper surf is a long way off. You’re gonna need patience.

The forecast kicks off with a tiny, clean little pulse of swell on Saturday morning, the 1st of August. We’re talking 1ft of swell out of the southeast, with a long 11 second period. The wind is a light cross-off, so it’ll be glassy and tidy. The water’s sitting at 80°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year. It’s surfable, but honestly, it’s just a tease – weak energy in the water (60). Not worth getting too excited about, but it’s a sign of life.

From Saturday afternoon, things start to build, but the wind goes against us. A 16 second period groundswell fills in, but it’s coming with a stiff onshore breeze. By Sunday the 2nd, we’ve got 4ft to 4ft of southeast swell, but the NE wind is up to 15-19 mph and it’s choppy and lumpy. That’s a write-off. The energy is ramping up though (702 to 792) – the ocean is waking up.

Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th are rough. The swell jumps to 6ft then a solid 10-13ft, but it’s all cross-onshore and messy. The swell energy is getting serious – we’re talking 2364 and then a huge 8089 by Tuesday afternoon. But it’s all for nothing because the wind is howling out of the NE at 19-22 mph, turning it into a washing machine. Wednesday the 5th is the peak of this pulse – 13ft of SSE swell and energy readings up at 9100. It’s powerful, but the onshore wind is just shredding it. This is not surfing; this might be kite-surfing territory, but I wouldn’t paddle out.

We start to see the swell back off a touch on Thursday the 6th, still a meaty 12ft, but the wind eases. The trouble is, it’s way too big for the break here. The forecast notes say wind and tide are good, but the swell is just too much – this is only for the most insane experts, and even then, it’s pushing it. We’re looking at 6218 to 7924 units of energy – that’s a lot of ocean moving. By Friday the 7th, it’s still around 8ft with a cross-shore wind, and the notes say it’s “marginal or questionable.” The quality is just poor.

The rest of that first week and into the second is a write-off. Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th see the swell drop a little, but the wind is still onshore. Then Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th bring another big pulse – Tuesday morning is back up to 12ft again, too big again. The wind is light but cross-onshore, and the energy is a massive 6025. It’s frustrating because the ocean is full of power, but no one can surf it.

And then, we get our window. Wednesday the 12th of August. The swell drops to a more manageable 7ft, but the key is the wind switches to a light cross-offshore breeze out of the ESE. The wave comment for that morning is the only one that says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s the standout. The swell direction is ENE, which is a bit cross to the optimum, but the clean conditions make all the difference. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s still a solid 7ft, so it’s not for beginners, but for the crew who know what they’re doing, this is your morning.

After that, the energy fades and the wind turns messy again. Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th are just cross-shore chop, and the week after that, from the 15th onwards, the swell drops to 4-5ft with short, weak periods (8-10 seconds). The energy falls to the 300-475 range – it’s just dribble. It’s not looking like it’ll break properly; it’s just too weak and disorganized.

So, the honest truth is, there’s only one real session in this whole 16-day stretch, and that’s the early morning of Wednesday the 12th. It’s a long way off, so keep an eye on it, but that’s your best bet. The rest is a whole lot of swell and wind with nowhere to go. Hang tight.

Rusty.

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