Onjuku Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and talk about what’s coming for Onjuku.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got some serious size rolling in, but the wind is going to be our worst enemy for most of it. The real highlight is going to be Thursday morning, July 9. That’s the one to point the car at.

Thursday morning, July 9 is the standout. Onjuku is looking at a solid 6 ft swell from the SSE, with a nice 14-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy. The water is running 74°, which is a touch colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a decent suit. But the real magic is the wind: glassy. Dead calm. Just a slight air. It’s going to be clean as a whistle. The combined energy is strong at 1626, so there’s plenty of push. This is excellent, powerful surf for experienced surfers. The shape should be good, and with that kind of period, expect long, lined-up sets. It’s an exposed break (Chiba), and the swell direction is right on the money from the SSE. You’ll want to be on it early.

Later Thursday afternoon, the wind shifts to a light cross-onshore from the SSE, so it will get a little bumpy. Friday through Sunday, the swell actually builds, getting up to 7 ft from the S and periods hitting 17 seconds on Saturday morning – that’s very long period stuff. The combined energy is massive, jumping to 2964. But it’s all onshore wind. Onshore from the S and SSW, blowing 9 to 12 mph. That’s onshore, messy, and blown-out. For the experienced crew, Saturday morning with that long-period S swell might offer some heavy, raw power, but it’s going to be a battle against the wind chop. It’s really only for the experts wanting a challenge. For most of us, it’s a skip.

Sunday stays similar, with onshore winds and dropping size. Monday the 13th is a write-off in the morning with light rain and strong cross-onshore wind, but Monday afternoon shows a glimmer: a 4 ft S swell, light cross-offshore wind from the WNW, and it’s clean. The energy is weak at 480, but it could offer a few fun, clean waves if you’re desperate.

From Tuesday the 14th onward, we hit a proper lull. Swell drops to tiny – 2 ft to 3 ft – and the combined energy falls below 200. The wind is messy or onshore. This flat spell looks set to last through the end of the second week, with barely anything rideable until around Monday, July 20, when a new 4 ft SSE pulse shows up, but it’s still onshore and unappealing.

Then, from Tuesday, July 21, a new, much bigger SSW/S swell starts to build. Tuesday afternoon sees 10 ft from the SSE with a strong 3414 combined energy. By Wednesday the 22nd, we’re looking at 12 ft from the S with energy over 5000. That’s a serious, powerful groundswell with a 14-second period – huge, powerful, and dangerous. The problem is it’s still forecast to be onshore. That much size with onshore wind creates a brutal, messy, closed-out beast. Only for kamikaze experts, and even then… It could be more interesting for kitesurfing than paddle surfing. Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th see the swell drop back to the 6 ft to 8 ft range, still onshore.

So, the takeaway? Thursday morning July 9 is your one truly good window of clean, powerful surf. The rest is either blown out, too small, or too big and messy. Keep an eye on that long-range stuff on the 21st and 22nd, but don’t hold your breath for it to be clean.

Rusty.

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