Onjuku Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be real – the next couple of weeks at Onjuku are a tough watch. We’re talking a solid run of messy, blown-out conditions with a few bright spots. The water is sitting at 80°, which is pretty much exactly what you’d expect for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a write-off. We’ve got a mix of cross-onshore winds and poor surf quality from Wednesday morning through to Sunday afternoon. The swell is small and weak, never really getting its act together. The combined energy is low, hovering around 150-200 (weak), so you’re looking at tiny, bumpy waves. Not worth paddling out for.

Friday morning, September 4th, things get a little interesting. The wind drops to glassy, and the swell is small but rideable. The energy is still weak (150mm), but it’s clean. It’s surfable, but nothing to get excited about. Friday afternoon and Saturday morning stay clean, but the swell stays stubbornly small and weak.

Sunday, September 6th, sees a jump in size, but the wind picks up to a fresh breeze, and the quality is poor. By Sunday afternoon, the swell hits 7ft, but it’s short period (7 seconds) and messy. The energy is moderate (403mm), but it’s just not breaking well.

The following week is a washout. From Monday, September 7th, through to Thursday, September 10th, we’ve got constant onshore winds, risk of thunderstorms, and the swell is too big and lumpy for Onjuku to handle. The energy spikes into the strong to very strong range from Tuesday, September 8th, onwards, with values like 1688mm and 3138mm, but it’s all for nothing – the wind is ruining it.

The standout moment comes on Wednesday, September 9th, in the morning. The wind is light, the swell is a solid 12ft from the south, and the period is 11 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 5503mm (very strong). The setup is clean, but here’s the catch: the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is one for the experts only. If you’re a confident, experienced surfer, it could be a wild ride, but for everyone else, stay on the beach.

We then hit another gap of poor conditions until Monday, September 14th, afternoon. The wind is cross-off, the swell is a modest 4ft from the southeast, and the energy is moderate (639mm). It’s a marginal call, but it’s clean and rideable for the average surfer.

The best swell of the entire forecast arrives on Tuesday, September 15th, and Wednesday, September 16th. We’re looking at 13ft to 16ft swell from the southeast, with long periods of 13-14 seconds. The energy is off the charts (7641mm and 6838mm). The wind is offshore, and the conditions are glassy. But again, this is massive. 13ft+ with a long period is a serious, heavy wave, and it’s likely too big and powerful for this beach break. The swell direction is southeast, which is not the optimum for Onjuku (which prefers SSE). This is a solid, promising, but dangerous setup for the most experienced locals only.

The last few days of the period, September 17th, offer a decent drop-off with 7ft to 8ft swell and clean conditions, but the energy is still strong, and the wind shifts onshore in the afternoon. It’s a window, but not a standout.

Honestly, if you’re not an expert, the next two weeks are a bust. The best on offer is that Wednesday morning, September 9th, for the big-wave crew, and maybe the Tuesday, September 15th, for the absolute elite. For everyone else, keep your board in the car and wait for the next window.

Rusty.

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