Onjuku Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next 16 days bring a real mixed bag to Onjuku. The first week is full of junky, blown-out conditions with only a few windows of hope. The real standout is going to be a big, powerful pulse that arrives late in the period, but it’s aimed at the experts.

Right now, we’re starting with a tough stretch. From Sunday the 19th right through to Wednesday the 23rd, the wind is a mess. It’s blowing onshore or cross-onshore, the swell is small and weak, and the water is sitting at 78°, which is about average for this time of year. The energy is low, reading between 153 and 195, so the weak, short-period swell just won’t hold up. It’s a total write-off.

Things start to show a little life on Thursday morning the 23rd. We get a brief moment of glassy conditions with a tiny 3ft swell from the east. The energy is still low, only 150, but for a few hours, it might just be small, clean, and rideable for a longboarder. Crowds are possible here, by the way. That window is short-lived, though, as the wind swings back onshore in the afternoon and the next few days stay small and messy.

The real story starts to build at the end of the first week and into the second. A solid, long-period groundswell starts to roll in. Monday morning the 27th sees a 2ft SE swell with a clean, cross-offshore breeze. The energy is climbing to 258, and the waves are clean. It’s not big, but it’s a sign of what’s coming.

Then, Tuesday the 28th is the clear winner for the first half of the period. We’ve got a 4ft S swell, with a very long period of 14 seconds, pushing through. The combined energy hits 749, which is moderate, but the wind is near non-existent, with a light offshore breeze in the morning and glassy conditions in the afternoon. This is the pick of the first week. This long-period southern groundswell will be better shaped, but it might break a little too straight on the beach, so keep an eye on the tide. The water is still clean and the conditions will be very good.

Unfortunately, the wind turns ugly again on Wednesday the 29th with a strong cross-onshore blow, and the surf quality tanks. That’s the pattern for the rest of the week: solid swell, but terrible wind.

Now, for the big one. The final days of the outlook are a wild card. Sunday the 2nd of August sees a massive 6ft SE swell, with a period of 17 seconds and a combined energy of 2003. That’s strong. But the wind is still cross-onshore, making it a messy, challenging beast.

The true standout, though, comes on Monday the 3rd of August. We’re looking at a huge 10ft to 12ft SE swell, with a period of 18 seconds. The energy is off the charts, hitting 6581 and 7299. This is a very strong, very long-period groundswell. The wind is still cross-onshore at 12 mph, and the forecast notes say this swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is strictly for experts. The energy is so immense that it will be a dangerous, powerful, and heaving lineup. For the average surfer, this is a day to watch from the beach. The combination of that size and steady cross-onshore wind will make it incredibly challenging, and honestly, it might be more interesting for the kite surfers than for paddle surfing.

So, to wrap it up: the best clean, manageable swell is Tuesday the 28th of July. The most impressive, but dangerous, event is the heavy groundswell on Monday the 3rd of August. The rest is a battle with the wind.

Rusty.

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