Onjuku Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. Rusty here. We’ve got a strange one on our hands for the next couple of weeks. It’s not going to be a total flat spell, but it’s going to take a while before we see anything that’s really worth getting excited about. The ocean’s going to be out of sorts for a good stretch, so let’s just get through it and wait for that late burst of energy.

The first week is a write-off, plain and simple. Onjuku is going to see some small, weak swell, and the wind is just going to be messing with it. We're looking at days of poor surf and marginal conditions, with that S-SE swell struggling to show any power. There are a few mornings with cleaner conditions, but the swell is just too small to break properly. You'll see energy readings mostly in the low-to-mid hundreds, which tells you just how weak it all is.

It's not until Wednesday the 16th that we get a slight glimmer of hope. The wind goes light and offshore, and while the swell is still small at about 3 feet or less, it's clean and organized enough that it could be surfable for the patient types. It's a “good conditions” call, but we're talking knee-to-waist high at best. Not exactly firing.

Then on Friday the 18th, the swell starts to kick up a little bit more, with that period stretching out to 17 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell. But it’s still building, and the wind is a bit onshore at times, so it's going to be a bit lumpy. The energy jumps to over 1700, which is a huge leap from the weak stuff we had before, but the quality isn’t quite there yet.

Hold onto your boards, because Saturday the 19th is when things get serious. That long-period SE groundswell is going to be pouring in. We're looking at 13-foot faces at Onjuku. And here's the kicker: the wind is favorable and it's clean. But I gotta be straight with you, this is way too big for this break. 13 feet anywhere is a lot of water, but at a place like this, it's going to be a washing machine. The combined energy reading is over 8700, which is very strong, but this is a case of too much of a good thing. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it could be a complete closeout. This is a case where the setup looks far more interesting for the kite surfers than for us paddling.

The energy just builds from there. Sunday the 20th is still massive and untidy, with a 35-foot reading, and by Monday the 21st we hit the peak. We’re talking 32-foot faces with glassy conditions. That’s a monstrous, frightening swell. The energy reading is over 54,000, which is just off the charts. It's not surfable; it's a survival mission. The swell direction is also turning more southerly, which is cross-shore at Onjuku, making it a chaotic mess. After that peak, it backs off quickly.

By Tuesday the 22nd, it's dropping fast, but it's still got a lot of juice with 8-foot faces and lumpy conditions. The following days see it fade back into the small and messy stuff, with onshore winds and poor conditions through to the end of the month. The energy drops back to the low hundreds, and it’s nothing but closeouts and whitecaps.

So, there it is. A long spell of nothing much, a brief tease of clean but small surf, and then a monster swell that will be completely out of control and only for the most insane (or foolish) out there. It’s a weird forecast, for sure, but that’s the ocean for you. Just keep an eye on the charts; these long-range things can shift around a lot.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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