Onjuku Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at Onjuku over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, with some real standouts on the horizon if you’re patient.

The water temp is sitting at 82°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might not need the thickest wetsuit.

We’ve got a long wait ahead. The first week is pretty grim, with the exception of one decent window. Tuesday the 25th kicks off with a 6ft SSE swell, but it’s got a nasty 25-30 km/h cross-onshore wind, making a choppy mess. The combined swell energy is strong at 1331, but the wind ruins it. Wednesday is much the same with cross-shore and onshore winds, and tiny, messy 3-3ft waves. Thursday gets a bit smaller with a 4ft SW windswell, but those thunderstorms and cross-onshore winds keep things ordinary. The only half-decent chance in the first week is Friday morning, the 28th. We get a brief window with a 5ft SW swell (period a short 6 seconds) and a light offshore NNW wind at 5 km/h. The combined energy is moderate (461) and conditions clean, but it’s a short-lived moment of goodness. The rest of the weekend into early next week is tiny, with 2ft waves and onshore to cross-offshore winds. It's just not doing anything.

Now, Tuesday the 1st of September is where it gets interesting. Tuesday morning is a standout with a solid 3ft SSE groundswell (period 12 seconds) and a gentle offshore NNE breeze (15 km/h). The combined swell energy is moderate (504) and conditions are clean. This is a good, clean, long-period swell that will hold up nicely at an exposed spot. Tuesday afternoon looks even better, with the swell building to 5ft from the SSE, light ENE cross-offshore wind at just 10 km/h, and combined energy climbing to a strong 672. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the best window in the whole forecast.

But don’t get too comfortable. Wednesday the 2nd sees a dramatic change. We’re looking at a 10ft to 12ft SSE swell with a moderate cross-onshore wind. The combined energy jumps to 1661 and then a massive 4458. This swell is way too big for most, pushing well into expert territory. For anyone but the most seasoned, this is a pass.

After that, the forecast gets wild. On Thursday the 3rd, a huge 18-20ft SSE/S swell hits with direct onshore winds. The combined energy readings are off the charts (6631 and 18957). This is massive, dangerous, and blown out. It’s not a surf day; it’s a survival day. By Friday the 4th, the swell drops back to 5-6ft but the onshore wind is still howling at 25-30 km/h, making for poor conditions. The rest of the second week is a write-off: small swells, lumpy cross-shore winds and rain. Not worth the paddle.

So, the clear highlight: Tuesday the 1st of September. Clean, long-period swell with light offshore winds. If you can wait, that’s the one to circle. The Friday the 28th of August morning is a consolation prize, but it’s short and small.

Rusty

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