Shida Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The long-range charts are showing a bit of a wild ride for us here.

We’re starting off with a pulse of strong, raw energy, but it’s not in a friendly mood. For the first couple of days, that swell is just too messy, with a strong cross-onshore wind chopping it all up. You’ll see the numbers on the board – that combined energy is up there in the strong zone (5361), but it’s all for nothing when the wind is howling like that. Keep the board in the car for Wednesday.

Things start to clean up a bit from Thursday onwards. The wind swings around to a light cross-offshore, and the swell drops to a more manageable size. It won't be epic, but there will be some clean, lined-up waves for the experienced crew. Thursday afternoon and Friday morning look like the pick of this first stretch, with clean conditions and a decent 13-second period swell rolling in. The energy settles down to a moderate level (around 1700-1900), but it should be fun. Saturday also has some clean lines, though the swell drops off a bit more.

Then we hit a real downer. From Sunday through to the following Tuesday, the wind goes straight onshore and howls. The swell is still there, but the surf is going to be a complete mess. We’re looking at a solid 4-5 day stretch of blown-out, choppy conditions. That’s a long time to be staring at the ocean from the sand. The energy levels drop right off into the weak-to-moderate range, and it’s just not worth the paddle.

There’s a glimmer of hope on the 16th, with the wind turning offshore again and a clean pulse of swell. The energy is still low, but the conditions should be clean. But then the wind gets messy again for the start of that week.

Now, here’s the big one. The forecast for the 19th and 20th is showing a serious pulse of groundswell. We’re talking about a big, long-period swell from the SSE that has the energy meters going nuts – into the strong to very strong range (3399-4674). The wind is forecast to be offshore and light, which would make it absolutely perfect.

But here’s the catch, and it’s a big one. This swell is predicted to be too big for our main break here at Shida. The report literally says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. With wave heights pushing 10ft to 11ft, this is expert-only territory, and even then, it might just be a washing machine. The water temp is sitting at about 80.8°, which is pretty average for this time of year, so at least you won’t freeze while you’re getting thumped.

So, if you’re an expert and you’re feeling brave, keep an eye on the 20th. The conditions are forecast to be clean and the swell is massive, but it might be a case of watching from the cliff rather than paddling out. Everything else in that second week is marginal at best. There are a few days where the wind is offshore, but the swell is small and weak. It’s a waiting game.

The main window looks like Thursday the 6th through Saturday the 8th. It won’t be huge, but it should be clean and fun. After that, you’re waiting for that big pulse on the 20th, hoping it’s not too much of a good thing.

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