Shida Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and I’m looking straight at the Shida forecast for the next couple of weeks. Right now, there isn’t much to get excited about. We’ve got a slow, drawn-out start with very weak, inconsistent swell, and it’s going to take a while before anything worthwhile shows up. There’s a big run of days where the conditions are just ordinary or poor, but things do eventually turn around for a good window if you’re patient.

The first real surf on offer is on Thursday the 30th of July. It’s small. We’re talking about 1 ft SE swell with a short period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is weak at 67. The morning starts with some clouds and a light SSE breeze at 5 mph blowing cross-offshore, so the surface is clean. This is surfable, but it’s small and unremarkable. The water temperature is a very warm 79°, which is about average for the time of year.

Thursday afternoon picks up a touch to 3 ft from the SSW, but the wind goes offshore from the south at 10 mph. Still clean, but the combined energy only bumps up to moderate at 115. It’s still very ordinary. Friday the 31st is a mess. Morning has cross-on winds and poor surf. Afternoon is a little cleaner but still weak.

From Saturday the 1st of August through the middle of the week, the swell tries to build but the wind is all wrong. We get a long-period SE groundswell coming in with a period of 16 seconds on Saturday afternoon. The combined energy jumps to 146, but it’s still weak to moderate. The problem is the cross-on winds starting to pick up.

Then from Sunday the 2nd into Friday the 7th of August, the swell really ramps up. Sunday morning shows 4 ft of SE swell with 16-second period, and the combined energy is already moderate at 650. But the wind is cross-on and strengthening. By Monday the 3rd, the swell hits 7 ft with 17-second period, energy is very strong at 2790. But the wind is a stiff cross-on at 15-18 mph, making it choppy and lumpy. This continues through the week. The swell peaks on Wednesday the 5th with a 13 to 15 ft SSE swell, period at 16 seconds, and the energy is huge—over 10000. The problem is it’s simply too big for this break, and the wind is either cross or cross-on. This setup is really more for the kite surfers than paddle surfers at this point. The conditions are clean-ish on Wednesday and Thursday, but the size is just overwhelming for Shida.

Now, here’s the standout. Friday the 7th of August. This is the best of this whole forecast window. The swell has dropped to a still powerful 8-8 ft from the south, with a 14-second period. The combined energy is very strong at 2482 to 2844. The wind finally plays ball. It’s a gentle ESE breeze at 9 mph blowing cross-offshore. That makes for clean conditions. This is for experienced surfers only—over 8 ft is expert territory. That southeast direction fits well with the optimum for Shida, and with that long period and clean wind, the waves should have real shape and power. Crowds are possible here, so keep an eye out.

The week after that drops off again. Saturday the 8th of August afternoon has a cleaner 4 ft swell from the ESE with a 12-second period, energy over 1000, and cross-off wind. Sunday the 9th afternoon is similar with 5 ft ESE swell and clean conditions. These are decent but not the standouts like Friday. The following week from Monday the 10th onward is mostly a write-off with fresh cross-on winds, choppy surface, and poor conditions, though the swell hangs around the 4-5 ft range, just ruined by the wind.

So, overall, the best wave this period is hands down Friday the 7th of August. Swell of 8-8 ft from the south, long 14-second period, combined energy of 2844, and cross-off wind making it clean for the experts. If you can’t surf it, the Saturday and Sunday afternoons after that are the next best bet, but they’re a step down. The start of the period is a grind with weak, inconsistent surf and then a big pulse that’s either too big or blown out.

- Rusty

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