Shida Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what Shida has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. First thing you gotta know: Shida is an inconsistent break, and this outlook shows it. Don't get your hopes up for the first week; we’re looking at a pretty frustrating stretch.

Right now, the water temperature at Shida is about average for this time of year, so no need to worry about a weird chill or a warm patch.

The first few days, from Friday the 11th right through to the end of the weekend on the 13th, are pretty much a write-off. We’ve got easterly swells coming in at a weak 2 ft to 2 ft, with short, weak periods around 13-14 seconds. The winds are all onshore or cross-onshore from the north-northeast, making things choppy and messy. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate (206 to 286), and honestly, it’s just not worth paddling out. There’s a slight glimmer on Sunday afternoon with a light cross-shore breeze, but the surf is still marginal.

Finally, we get a turn. From Monday the 14th through Tuesday the 15th, things clean up nicely. The wind swings offshore from the south and southwest, creating some clean, rideable waves. The swell eases out of the southeast, building slowly from 3 ft to 4 ft. The period is a bit short (8-9 seconds), so it’ll be a little weaker and steeper on the face, but the energy is building from moderate to the upper end of moderate (247 to 439). This is the best window in the first week. Monday morning with the light offshore breeze and a clean 3 ft from the SE is your pick of the early period. Just be aware that crowds are often a thing here, so get out early.

After that, from Wednesday the 16th to Friday the 18th morning, it falls apart again. Onshore winds return, and the swell drops to a messy 2 ft to 2 ft. But the real story is Friday the 18th. The swell jumps up to 6 ft in the morning and 8 ft by the afternoon, with a very long period of 16 seconds. The combined energy shoots up into the thousands (1,872 to 3,652), indicating massive wave energy. The problem? The wind is onshore and strong from the north-northeast. The size is there, but it’s a complete mess. Not great for a paddle board.

Now, we look into the second week, and this is where it gets promising but unpredictable. Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th look like the standout days on paper, but you have to be an expert. The swell from the southeast is pumping 12 ft, with a long period (14-15 seconds) and combined energy over 4,800. The wind is forecast to be cross-offshore from the south-southeast on Sunday, which would be perfect and clean. But – and this is a big but – this break is predicted to be way too big for it. We’re talking an 12 ft SE swell that will be breaking straight and heavy. That is strictly for experts only, and probably one for the big boat.

The 22nd of September takes it even further, with a massive 20 ft south swell (combined energy over 11,000) – totally unrideable for Shida. Then Wednesday the 23rd sees the swell drop like a stone to 4 ft-4 ft but with howling 25-28 mph offshore winds. It’ll be clean but impossible to paddle into, so maybe something to watch if the wind eases.

The very tail end, Thursday the 24th, offers the only real small-wave moment. A tiny 2 ft easterly swell with glassy conditions in the afternoon (energy down to just 56) and light winds. You could get a few knee-high rollers on a longboard. The outlook for Friday the 25th and Saturday the 26th is poor again with messy onshore winds.

So, to wrap it up: Don't bother with the first week until Monday and Tuesday. The real energy comes in the second week (Sept 19-22), but it’s far too big for this spot. If you're an expert seeking a massive swell, maybe keep an eye on Sunday the 20th, but don't bank on it.

Stay patient, folks. Rusty out.

Read more