Takegashima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Takegashima.

First up, the water temp is sittin’ around 82°, which is pretty standard for this time of year. Nothin’ weird goin’ on there.

Honestly, the next week and a half is a bit of a bummer. We’re lookin’ at a real slow start. From Saturday the 12th all the way through to Thursday the 17th, it’s mostly flat or junk. Small waves in the knee-to-waist high range, but the wind is all over the place – onshore or cross-onshore – and the energy is weak. The combined swell energy is barely crackin’ three digits (105 on Saturday morning, 178 on Tuesday). It’s just not worth paddlin’ out for.

Friday the 18th things pick up a notch, but it’s messy. The morning brings 7ft of east swell with onshore wind, and the energy jumps to 965 (moderate), but the conditions are ordinary. Not a standout.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th see some solid groundswell roll in. We’re talkin’ a long-period SE swell at 18 seconds on Saturday, 14 seconds on Sunday. Swell heights are 6ft to 12ft – that’s a lot of water, and with a period over 15 seconds, it’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy goes ballistic: 3171 on Saturday, 5688 Saturday arvo. That’s strong stuff. But – and it’s a big but – the wind is onshore (ENE to NE) and the break is a reef that needs clean conditions. This is mackin’ surf, but it’s gonna be blown out and messy. Only for the experienced crew who don’t mind a fight. On Sunday afternoon, the swell hits 12ft with 4395 energy. It’s raw power, but not pretty.

Monday the 21st stays chunky with 8ft of SSE swell, 13-second period, and onshore wind. Still on the messy side. With combined energy at 2383, the ocean is pushin’ hard, but the quality just ain’t there.

Tuesday the 22nd is a monster. The swell is absolutely thumpin’ – 18ft in the morning, 34ft in the afternoon, with 16-second periods. Combined energy hits 57354 in the arvo – that’s extreme. But here’s the kicker: the wind is cross or cross-onshore at 12-19 mph, and the wave comment says it’s predicted to be too big for this break. This is only for the absolute elite big-wave chargers, and even then, it’s gonna be a washin’ machine. Not somethin’ you paddle out for a fun session.

Wednesday the 23rd drops off hard. 7ft of swell in the morning with 31 mph offshore wind – sounds good, right? Wrong. “Near gale” conditions make it almost impossible to paddle into. By the arvo, it’s down to 5ft with cross-shore wind. Not worth it.

From Thursday the 24th all the way to Sunday the 27th, we’re back to flatness. Tiny waves under 3ft, no energy, and no quality. A long, quiet end to the outlook.

Bottom line: There’s no real standout here. If I had to point to the best of a bad bunch, Monday the 21st offers 8ft of SSE swell with 13-second period. The combined energy is 2383 (moderate-to-strong), and although the wind is onshore, it’s not howlin’. The swell direction is SSE, which matches up fine with the optimum E direction for Takegashima’s reef. That said, it’s still messy. If you’re desperate and an advanced surfer, that’s your window. Everything else is either too small, too blown out, or too ridiculously big.

Keep an eye on that long-range Saturday/Sunday (19th-20th) window for a possible cleanup, but as of now, it’s a no-go for clean waves.

Rusty.

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