Takegashima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, checking in from the local lineup. The next 16 days are on the table, and for Takegashima, it’s a classic story of waiting for the real juice to arrive. The first week and a bit is pretty flat or ordinary, but the back half of the outlook is where things get properly interesting. Hang tight.

We start off this Sunday, the 16th of August, with a bit of a dud. The swell is around 5 ft from the ESE, but it’s a short-period 6-second windswell with a combined energy of just 298, and a risky t-storm with cross-shore winds. Not worth paddling out for. Monday the 17th is tiny, with 1 ft from the SE, and though the wind goes light cross-off in the afternoon, the energy is weak (75) and the surf is ordinary. Tuesday and Wednesday follow the same script – small, weak, and uninviting, with the best showing a 3 ft wave on Wednesday afternoon but still only 82 energy. Thursday the 20th is a turning point: the morning is still weak, but Thursday afternoon brings glassy conditions with a 5 ft SE swell, 6-second period, and 222 energy. It’s labelled as “expect good surf conditions,” so that’s your first real window, but it’s not a standout.

Friday the 21st sees a big jump in size – 10 ft from the SSE in the morning with a 9-second period and a massive 2905 energy – but it’s a cross-shore wind and a risk of t-storms, so it’s marginal. By Saturday the 22nd, the swell drops to 7 ft from the S, still 9-second period, with 848 energy and clean cross-off winds. That’s a solid session for the experienced crew. But the real highlight, the one to circle on the calendar, is the week that follows.

Sunday the 23rd offers clean 4 ft from the S with offshore SW winds (332 energy), and Monday the 24th is even better: 4 ft from the SE in the morning, but the afternoon brings 5 ft from the SE, a 14-second groundswell, and 905 energy with a light cross-off breeze. That’s very good. Tuesday the 25th is a step up – 7 ft from the SE, 15-second period, 1867 energy, and clean cross-off winds. That’s excellent for experienced surfers. Then Wednesday the 26th is glassy in the morning with 8 ft SE swell (14-second, 2223 energy) and again glassy in the afternoon with 7 ft. This is top-tier.

Now, the true standout – the one you wait for – is Thursday the 27th of August. The afternoon session is glassy, with a 10 ft SE swell, 16-second period, and a staggering 4414 energy. That’s a very long period groundswell rolling in, perfect for a reef break like Takegashima, which is exposed and faces E. The water temperature is about average for this time of year. This is expert territory, but if you’ve got the skills, it’s going to be a day to remember. Then Friday the 28th blows it out of the water: 15 ft in the morning, 16 ft in the afternoon, both from the SE, 15-second period, and energy peaking at 11475. Glassy wind both sessions. That’s exceptional – but only for experts. The swell is too big for most.

The forecast confidence drops by Saturday the 29th: the morning shows 28 ft from the ESE, which is too big for this break, so skip it. The afternoon settles to 11 ft from the SE, but it’s a cross-shore wind and marginal. The final days – Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st – fade back to small, with Monday morning offering a glassy 5 ft from the ESE (415 energy) as a last gentle session.

So, the best on offer is hands-down Thursday the 27th afternoon and Friday the 28th, for those who can handle the size. The crowd profile at Takegashima is “sometimes,” so you might share it, but with that quality, it’s worth it. Keep the 27th and 28th circled, and don’t bother with the first week.

Rusty.

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