Takegashima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let's get into it. We're looking at a 16-day window for Takegashima, and it's a proper story of two halves. The first week and a half is pretty much a write-off, but then a serious window of opportunity opens up, albeit for the bold and the experienced.

The first real surf on offer is a slow build. From Friday the 11th through to the middle of the following week, it's a struggle. The swell is small, the period is short, and the wind is often on it. The combined energy is weak, mostly in the low hundreds or even below 100 (e.g., 153 on Friday morning). It's not a time to be excited. There's a brief moment on Tuesday the 15th where the morning glass-off with 4ft of SE swell looks promising, but the overall energy is still moderate (244) and the quality is just 'good' at best. It's a bit of a tease.

From Wednesday the 16th it goes quiet again until the real story begins. The standout is undeniably the weekend of the 19th and 20th. This is where the forecast gets a bit emotional. On Saturday the 19th, we start seeing a big, long-period SE groundswell pushing in. The morning is 13ft of SE swell with a 16-second period, and the combined energy is massive (8856). The wind is light onshore, but the sheer size is the headline. By Sunday the 20th, it's still pumping 15ft of SE swell with the same 16-second period, and the energy stays huge (9924). This is not for the faint-hearted. With waves over 8ft, this is strictly for advanced surfers only. The long period (16 seconds) means the waves will have plenty of power and shape, but at a reef break, it will be a heavy, powerful wave. Expect crowds to be likely as the word gets out.

The kicker, though, is Monday the 21st. The forecast is for an absolute monster, with 28ft to 36ft of SSE swell. The energy readings are off the chart (over 64,000). The wind is a strong cross-onshore, but the problem isn't the wind; the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is way beyond expert level, more of a "watch from the cliff" kind of day. The swell then drops drastically on the 22nd, with gale-force winds and heavy rain, finishing the run.

After that, it's back to the small stuff. The 23rd has clean offshore winds with 3ft swell, but it's weak. The 24th is tiny and glassy, but with no energy. The tail end of the window on the 26th shows a 5ft SSE swell with a 12-second period, which could be a fun little mellow session if the wind holds, but it's a distant thought after the big weekend.

To sum it up, the best on offer is the Saturday 19th through Sunday 20th. That's your window. It's a heavy, powerful groundswell hitting a reef break. It's a standout for the sheer size and energy, but it's not a beginner's game. The Monday 21st is a spectacle, but not a surfable one for anyone. For the rest of the period, you're better off doing something else.

Rusty.

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