Takegashima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Morning surf’s pretty much a write-off for the next few days. We’ve got some small, weak ESE/SE swell rolling in, but it’s all short-period, around 8-9 seconds, and the energy’s marginal – combined energy reads 47-155, which is weak to low-moderate at best. Most of it’s either glassy but tiny (1ft to 3ft) or getting chopped up by onshore breezes. The 13th and 14th are flat and ordinary, and the 15th Tuesday morning picks up a bit to 4ft with calm winds – that’s your first real chance for a paddle, but it’s still pretty weak (energy 290) and the afternoon gets lumpy. The 16th and 17th drop back down to 2ft-3ft, all poor, onshore wind, just not worth suiting up.

Then we hit a gap. From the 18th through the 24th, there’s swell on the cards but the conditions are mostly junk – onshore winds, choppy, cross-on mess. The 19th Saturday afternoon does get some size – 15ft at 14 seconds off the ESE, energy reading a strong 12055 – but it’s cross-onshore and fairly choppy. That’s a big, raw, lumpy day, not a clean one. The 21st Monday afternoon cleans up, though – 10ft at 12 seconds from the S, glassy, energy at 3106 – that’s the standout window for the whole run, and it’s marked as excellent for experienced surfers. The 22nd Tuesday afternoon also offers 6ft SE at 9 seconds, clean with a light cross-off breeze (energy 501) – that’s a much more manageable, very good session.

After that, the 23rd turns nasty – 30-55 km/h cross-shore winds, tiny 4-5ft short-period junk, energy dropping to 100-154. That’s a hard pass. The 24th through 26th stay poor – 6ft-7ft ESE, but cross-on and choppy, moderate breeze, energy 554-1018. Not surfable in any decent way.

Then the 27th Sunday afternoon flips it – clear skies, glassy, 6ft ESE at 11 seconds, energy 692, and it’s marked as very good. That’s a solid, clean session. And the 28th Monday is the other true standout: 7ft ESE at 12 seconds, glassy, energy 1212-1222, excellent conditions for experienced surfers. That’s the second best day of the whole window, and given it’s a week and a half out, I’d still call it promising rather than locked in.

Takegashima’s a reef setup, exposed to the east, and the optimum swell direction is E – so these ESE/SE swells are right on the money when the wind lays down. Water’s sitting at 82°F, which is about normal for this time of year, no big anomaly there.

Short version: if you’re a solid surfer, circle the 21st Monday morning and afternoon, and the 28th Monday morning and afternoon – those are your best bets. The 27th Sunday afternoon’s also worth a look. Everything else is either too small, too messy, or just plain ugly. For beginners, the 22nd Tuesday afternoon at 6ft could be a goer if the tide lines up, but anything over 7ft on the 19th or 21st is expert-only water.

When the wind’s howling cross-on and it’s choppy with 7ft+ swell, that setup’s more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, to be honest. But the clean windows are there – you just gotta pick your moments.

Rusty

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