Takegashima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a proper sequence of groundswell heading our way at Takegashima, a reef break that handles an easterly direction best. The water is sitting at 76°, which is about 3° colder than usual for this time of year – you’ll feel that slight chill when you first get in.

The early part of the week is building. Wednesday the 8th is a write-off with a messy cross-shore wind and marginal conditions, not worth paddling out. Thursday the 9th sees swell climbing to 8ft to 10ft from the SSE, but the cross-shore wind keeps things average. Not your day.

Now, Friday the 10th steps up proper. Morning starts glassy with an 12ft S swell at a long 16 seconds, energy reading is 6069 (strong). That’s a solid groundswell for experts. By the afternoon it hits 13ft from the south, 17-second period, clean with a cross-off breeze, and an energy of 8183 (very strong). This is the standout of the first week. The swell direction is south, which isn't the break’s optimum east, but the power is there and the wind is good. Expect it to be a bit orderly with those long gaps between sets – not a beginner wave at this size.

Saturday the 11th morning still has 13ft at 17 seconds but the cross-shore wind puts a crumble on it, still manageable for experts. By afternoon it’s flat – zero swell. Sunday the 12th is tiny and not worth mentioning, with only 0.3ft to 2ft.

The middle of the following week picks up a bit. From Monday the 13th afternoon we get a 4ft S swell at 11 seconds, clean cross-off wind, and an energy of 384 (moderate). It’s a small window of okay waves before conditions drop off again. The rest of the week from the 14th to the 16th is small, with inconsistent pulses in the 2ft to 5ft range and mixed winds.

Now, we fast forward to a real event brewing. Friday the 17th morning: glassy conditions with another big pulse – 12ft from the SSE, 12-second period, energy 5016 (very strong). That’s a morning for experts only, under clean skies. The swell direction is close to optimum and the wind is offshore – this is promising.

The big show is on Monday the 20th afternoon. By then we’re looking at 16ft from the ESE, 16-second period, glassy, with an energy reading of 12446 (very strong). That’s a massive, long-period groundswell. This is the best of the entire forecast. It’s a long-range call so there’s less certainty, but if it hits, it’s going to be exceptional – just for experts. The direction is straight in from the break’s optimum. It will be big and powerful. Don’t even think about it if you’re not experienced.

After that peak, Tuesday the 21st morning has a huge 23ft SE swell at 14 seconds and energy over 33000 (very strong), but with a cross-onshore wind and the file suggests it may be too big for the break. That’s a beast; likely more interesting for tow surfing or just watching. The rest of the week from the 22nd onwards drops back to smaller swell with mixed winds and only marginal conditions.

If you’re going to chase one day, make it Friday the 10th afternoon or Monday the 20th afternoon – both big, powerful, and clean, with the 20th being the absolute standout if it materializes. Be aware that the 20th is still over a week away, so keep an eye on updates.

Stay safe.

Rusty

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