Takegashima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be honest with you: the next week and a half is not going to have you rushing for your board. We’ve got a real flat spell on the cards for Takegashima, with a long stretch of poor to ordinary conditions. For the first five days, you’re looking at small, weak surf with a lot of onshore and cross-shore winds, plus a few storms around. The wave energy stays weak to moderate, hanging around the 100–200 range, which tells you there’s just nothing moving out there. It’s not going to be worth the paddle.

The one bright spot in this early period is the Tuesday morning (15th). The wind goes completely glassy, and while the swell is still small at `4ft` from the SSE with a 9-second period, the conditions are finally clean. The combined energy jumps to a moderate `282`, and for a spot that’s been getting chopped up, this is the first real chance to get a few fun ones. It won’t be epic, but it’ll be the best surf you’ve found all week.

Then we hit a proper lull. From the 16th through the 18th, it’s all poor surf with weak energy, and a few spots where the swell drops right out. Nothing doing.

But hold on to your hat, because the real story is the Saturday the 19th. This is the standout of the whole 16-day run. The swell comes up hard from the SE with a solid 18-second period, and combined energy goes ballistic, hitting `10889` in the afternoon. That’s a serious groundswell. The wind turns light cross-offshore, and the report says ‘exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers.’ This is the day for the crew who know what they’re doing. The wave heights are `13ft`, and while it’s big, the long period will mean proper, powerful lines. Takegashima is a reef break, so this long-period energy is going to wrap in nicely. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

Sunday the 20th is next-level big, but it crosses that line into just too much. With `18ft` of SE swell predicted, it’s a washing machine. The report is clear: it’s too big for this break. Unless you’re a big-wave charger with a death wish, you’re better off finding a cliff to watch from. The energy is through the roof at `15866`, but this is beyond the realm of a normal surf.

Monday morning the 21st is still big and powerful with `12ft` of ESE swell, and it’s glassy. This is another expert-only window, though the energy has dropped to `5764`. It’s still serious, but the conditions are clean. After that, the swell fades fast through the afternoon and into the rest of the week, and we’re back to small, poor surf with increasing winds, including a nasty 50 km/h offshore blow on Thursday the 24th.

So, bottom line: you’ve got a long flat spell until next Saturday, which is the standout day. The following Monday morning is also a solid, heavy option for experts. The rest is flat, blown out, or just not worth it. Water temp is sitting at `82°F`, which is about `1°F` warmer than average for this time of year—nothing unusual, but still nice and warm. Keep the 19th in mind, and be ready for a paddle.

Rusty.

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