Ikumi Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a proper look at what's on the cards for the next couple of weeks around Ikumi Beach (Pemba). The water temp is sitting at 77°F, which is about 2°F colder than what we’d usually expect for this time of year.

The next week and a half is all about timing the drop in swell and picking the right windows of wind.

The action kicks off this Tuesday the 7th of July. It's not the biggest swell you'll ever see, but the conditions will be magic. Tuesday morning is looking glassy with a light SE breeze, a clean 3ft SE swell rolling in with a long 12 second period. The wave energy is moderate at 817, so there’ll be plenty of push for a longboard or a funboard. This is the pick of the first few days. Tuesday afternoon builds slightly to 4ft, the period stretches out to a very long 16 seconds, and it stays glassy. The combined energy jumps to 1226, the wave quality is excellent, but this is *only for experienced surfers* as the power will be deceptive. This is your standout window: clean, offshore winds and a very long-period groundswell.

Wednesday the 8th brings a jump in size. Morning sees 7ft swell, and by the afternoon it's 8ft from the ESE with 16 second periods. The wind goes light offshore, which is good, but the wave comment flags it as marginal due to tide or shape issues. The energy is high (2685 and 3482), but it might be a bit raw and unruly for the average punter.

Thursday the 9th through Saturday the 11th sees the swell pump up to 10ft to 13ft. With strong southerly and south-easterly energy readings hitting four and five digits (5775, 6966, 8317), this is a lot of power for what’s marked as a beginner spot. The forecast flat-out says the swell is too big for Ikumi. Unless you’re a expert charging big, slopey walls, give it a miss. The wind is cross-on or onshore, so it will be messy and dangerous. This is more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle-surfing one.

After that big pulse, the swell backs off. Sunday the 12th is the real return to sanity. Sunday morning is glassy with a NE wind, a clean 6ft SSW swell at 14 seconds. The energy is down to 1553, which is manageable, and conditions are excellent for experienced surfers. By Sunday afternoon the swell drops to 4ft, still glassy, and it’s good for a wider range.

Monday the 13th starts clean with 4ft S swell at 11 seconds (energy 377) but the afternoon goes cross-onshore and becomes marginal.

Tuesday the 14th is small and clean in the morning – 3ft at 10 seconds – but drops off fast into the afternoon. Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are tiny – 2ft to 3ft – and mostly fair to poor. The energy drops to under 200. There’s a real lull in the middle of the forecast.

Friday the 17th of July brings a new pulse: 7ft swell, but the period is a poor 8 seconds, and the wind is cross-on. That’s going to be a weak, bumpy mess despite the size.

Saturday the 18th is another big one (10ft) but with a short 8 second period and cross-on wind. That’s a choppy, blown-out wall of water. Not worth it for a paddle.

The best of the second week looks like Sunday the 19th of July and Monday the 20th. Sunday morning is 7ft from the ESE, period is short at 7 seconds, but the wind is *dead calm and glassy*. For a brief window, those waves will clean up beautifully and roll in with good shape. The energy is moderate at 610. The swell drops to 6ft in the afternoon, still glassy. Monday the 20th is also worth a look: 5ft at 7 seconds, early glass, with a SSW breeze. It’s not long-period, but the clean surface will make it fun.

After that, Tuesday the 21st of July is tiny but with a very long 16 second period (2ft), then Wednesday and Thursday of the 22nd and 23rd see the size come back up to 7-7ft, but the energy (1431-1735) and cross-shore winds suggest it won’t be clean.

Verdict: Your absolute standouts are Tuesday the 7th – both morning and afternoon for clean, long-period groundswell. After that, it's about picking the glassy windows on Sunday the 12th morning and Sunday the 19th morning. The forecast confidence is good for the near-term, less so for the second week, but the 19th looks promising.

Rusty

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