Ikumi Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Ikumi Beach over the next couple of weeks.

First thing to note: the water is sitting at 84°F with an anomaly of 3°F, so it’s a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – a nice little bonus if you’re paddling out without a steamer.

Now, the overall pattern. The first week is pretty quiet and unexciting, honestly. We’ve got a few small windows but nothing that’ll get the heart racing. Then, things get seriously interesting from the 16th of September onwards, with a proper pulse of energy coming through around the 21st and 22nd.

Let’s break it down. The first real suggestion of anything rideable is Monday morning, the 7th of September. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the SE, with a period of 9 seconds – that’s a short period windswell, not a lot of grunt behind it. The combined energy is moderate at 564. The wind is a cross-shore from the NE at 9 mph, so it’s going to be a bit choppy and messy. Only a 2/10 rating there, so don’t expect much. Tuesday the 8th is similar but smaller, 4ft to 5ft, with light cross-shore winds. It’s still just marginal.

Wednesday morning the 9th is actually the best of the first week. The wind swings to a light offshore from the WNW at just 3 mph, so it’s clean. Swell height is 7ft from the SSE, period 9 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate at 609. The rating is a 3/10, which is decent for this stretch. It’s still a short period swell, so the shape won’t be perfect, but it’s the only morning in the first week that feels surfable. After that, we drop back into tiny, weak waves through the weekend and into the next week. Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th have glassy conditions but only 2ft to 3ft of swell – energy is low, under 100. It’s not great.

Now, the standout window. Keep your eyes on Tuesday the 22nd of September. This is the real deal. The morning of the 22nd we get an 8ft swell from the ESE, with a period of 19 seconds – that’s a very long period groundswell, which means proper power and well-shaped waves. The combined energy is a massive 4539, which is strong. Even better, the wind is glassy, calm, with an offshore component from the ENE at 3 mph. This is excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers. The only thing to be mindful of: with a 19-second period, a long-period swell like this can break a bit too straight at a beach break like Ikumi, but if the sandbanks are right, it’ll be pumping. The afternoon of the 22nd still has 8ft, but the wind goes cross-onshore, so the morning is the clear winner.

The day before, Monday the 21st of September, is also worth a mention. The morning has 3ft of swell but that same 19-second period, giving a combined energy of 1143 – that’s a lot of energy for such a small wave height. The afternoon pushes to 3ft, period 21 seconds, and energy jumps to 1954. The wind is light cross-onshore both times, so not as clean as the 22nd morning, but still a sign of the big pulse arriving.

So, if you’re chasing the best, the morning of Tuesday the 22nd of September is the standout. It’s a long way off, so the forecast might shift a little, but right now it looks like the only proper session of the whole outlook. Before that, Wednesday morning the 9th is your best bet for a clean, smaller wave. The rest of the period is either too small, too windy, or too messy. Ikumi is inconsistent at the best of times, and this forecast shows that.

Rusty signing off.

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