Ikumi Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, with a look at what's on the table for our local stretch.

Honestly, I’m looking at a pretty tough run of surf for the next couple of weeks. The first real pulse of energy we see is a massive one, but it's way too big and messy for our setup. The biggest issue is the combination of those southeast swells and the onshore winds, making a mess of things.

We’re looking at Ikumi Beach here, and the water is sitting at 85°F with a temperature anomaly of 3°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Nice for a paddle, but it won't help the waves.

Let’s run through it. The first action kicks off Thursday, August 6th. We’ve got a monster swell building, 15 ft from the SE with a period of 14 seconds, pushing a massive amount of energy (8335). But the wind is cross-on from the ENE at 12 mph, and the wave comment says it all: "poor surf conditions." This is not for paddling. If you're into kiting, this setup looks way more interesting.

That afternoon, it gets even bigger. We’re talking 18 ft from the SE with a 15-second period, and the combined energy skyrockets (21621). The wind is up to 16 mph from the east. The report says it's "too big for this break." Only for absolute experts, and even then, it'll be a battle. This pattern of oversized, onshore slop continues through Friday, August 7th, with 13 ft and 12 ft swells, still cross-on and onshore winds.

We finally get a bit of a break over the weekend, but it’s nothing to write home about. Saturday, August 8th, the swell drops to 8 ft, and by Sunday, August 9th, it’s down to 5 ft. The wind eases, but it's still cross-on and the conditions are "marginal." The energy drops off (1189) but the quality just isn't there.

The standout session in this whole outlook, and the only time I’d really get excited, is Tuesday morning, August 11th. The swell is small at 4 ft from the S, with an 11-second period, and the energy is weak (433). But the wind is glass. Zero. Calm. "Expect good surf conditions." This is our window. It’s a small south swell, so it won't be a world-beater, but with glassy conditions, a longboard or a fish will be a joy. The crowd factor is "often" here, so expect company for that little window of clean, small waves.

Wednesday, August 12th, also has glassy conditions in the morning with 4 ft swell, but it’s even smaller. After that, we’re back into a long dry spell. From August 13th all the way through to August 21st, the swell is tiny, mostly under 3 ft, with weak energy (under 300) and mostly cross-on or onshore winds. There are a few glassy windows, like the morning of August 17th and 18th, but the swell is so small (2 ft) it’s barely surfable. It’s a long, quiet run.

The forecast hints at a very slight lift on August 19th with a 4 ft swell and glassy morning, but that's still a long way out and the confidence is low.

So, the call is simple. The only true standout is the glassy morning of Tuesday, August 11th for some clean, small waves. The rest of the 16-day window is a write-off for solid surf. It’s a blank run, but for this area, that’s not unusual when the wind and swell don't line up. Keep your eyes on that Tuesday morning.

Rusty.

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