Asakawa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I've got to be straight with you – the next month or so at Asakawa is a bit of a patience game. It's a point break that's pretty inconsistent, and for the first week and a half, we're looking at a whole lot of nothing. The swell is tiny, mostly under 1ft, and even when it's glassy, the energy is just weak (37 to 76). The water is a warm 82°F, which is about average for this time of year, so at least you won't be cold when you're sitting out there waiting.

This dry spell runs right through until the morning of Saturday the 25th of July. That's when we finally see a pulse of energy creep in, with a combined energy of 142, but it's still only 1ft of swell from the southeast. The mornings are glassy, which is a positive, but the waves are just too small to really do anything with. The Sunday the 26th of July is similar – glassy conditions in the morning, but the swell is still only 1ft, though the energy edges up to 173 by the afternoon.

The real change comes on Monday the 27th of July. The swell jumps to 3ft from the south, with a period of 15 seconds, and the energy goes ballistic to 921. The wind is a light cross-shore, so it's messy, but this is the first sign of life. The afternoon sees the swell hit 6ft from the south, with a period of 14 seconds and a massive 1352 energy. But the wind is onshore, making it blown out.

Tuesday the 28th of July morning is the standout. The swell is 7ft from the south, with a 14-second period and a huge 2047 energy. The wind is glassy. This is solid, clean surf for experienced surfers. At 7ft, it's pushing into the bigger range, so it's not for beginners. The afternoon sees the swell nudging 8ft, but the wind swings to a cross-onshore, and the score drops off a cliff.

Wednesday the 29th of July still has some size, with a 8ft SSW swell in the morning, but the wind is cross-onshore, so it's lumpy. The energy is still high at 1898, but the conditions are marginal.

After that, the wheels fall off. The wind cranks up from the 30th of July, with strong cross-onshore winds of 15 to 19 mph ruining the 6ft swell. The energy drops, and the conditions are just poor. This continues into early August, with the wind staying strong from the east and southeast. On the 3rd of August, the swell actually gets to 7ft to 8ft, with a very long 18-second period from the ESE, and a massive 4451 energy. But the wind is a moderate cross-onshore, making it a choppy, messy mess. For a point break, that long-period swell is usually good, but the wind kills it.

The bottom line is: if you're an experienced surfer, the Tuesday morning of the 28th of July is your best bet. Glassy conditions, strong south swell, and plenty of energy. Everything else in this 16-day window is either flat, too small, or blown out. And keep in mind, Asakawa is inconsistent, so this kind of blank run isn't totally out of the ordinary. The long-range stuff on the 3rd of August is promising on paper, but with that wind, it's more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one.

Rusty.

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