Asakawa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a solid chunk of the 16-day window to look at, but it starts off pretty average before the real stuff kicks in. The first few days are ordinary, but hang tight, it gets bloody good.

Overall Pattern: Things start out pretty tame at Asakawa. The first few days are small and messy, nothing to get excited about. Then, from Friday the 18th, the swell starts to build, and we’re looking at a run of solid, powerful groundswell. The true standout is the Monday the 22nd, but that one’s for the big-wave crew only. After that, a proper small spell, then another pulse of energy rolls in around the 27th of September.

Tuesday 15th and Wednesday 16th: Forget about it. Early on there’s a risk of thunderstorms and heavy rain. Waves are small at around 3 ft to 4 ft from the SE, with a short 9-second period. The water temp is about average for this time of year. Combined energy is weak to moderate, around 217-260 in the morning. Not worth paddling out. On Wednesday the wind shifts cross-offshore, keeping it clean but the swell drops right off, with energy dipping to 98. Not a chance.

Thursday 17th: Total write-off. Clean but tiny, with waves barely 2 ft to 2 ft. Combined energy is a weak 54-72. Don’t bother.

Friday 18th: Now we’re talking. A nice little jump here. Thursday morning sees 5 ft ESE swell with a 9-second period and light cross-offshore winds. Clean and fun. Combined energy is moderate at 310. The afternoon gets a bit bigger at 5 ft and the period stretches to 11 seconds, but a cross-shore breeze puts a slight chop on it. Best session of the week so far, but still only a glimpse of what’s coming.

Saturday 19th: This is where it gets serious for experienced surfers. Swell pumps up to 12 ft from the ESE, with a long 15-second period in the morning. This is groundswell of consequence, with strong to very strong energy (5441). The wind stays cross-off from the NNE, keeping it clean. This is a lot of power though – over 8 ft, so it’s expert territory only. The long period (15 seconds) means it’ll break well at Asakawa, a point break. It’s an inconsistent spot, so be patient for the sets.

Sunday 20th and Monday 21st: Wave heights hold at 13 ft from the SE and SSE, with a period of 14 seconds. The combined energy is very strong, hitting 6607 and then 7690 on Sunday afternoon. Wind remains clean cross-off. This is a solid, powerful run. It's still in the expert range due to the size. Asakawa is a point break, so the long-period swell should set up nicely.

Tuesday 22nd: The true standout. This is the big one. The predicted swell hits a massive 34 ft from the SE with a 16-second period. The combined energy is a monster 50628. This is a world-class, legitimate big-wave swell. However, the guidance warns the swell is too big for this break. The wind is cross-onshore and choppy, making it heavy and dangerous. This is absolutely for experts only, and even then, only for those with the right gear and knowledge. This is the highlight of the whole period for energy, but only for the brave.

Wednesday 23rd to Friday 25th: A massive drop-off. A near gale from the SSE on Wednesday brings onshore wind and blown-out conditions with poor surf. The days after are clean but tiny, with waves from 1 ft to 3 ft. Combined energy is weak to low, between 42 and 238. A proper lull.

Saturday 26th and Sunday 27th: Surf comes back to life. Saturday afternoon has a nice little SE groundswell of 4 ft, with a 10-second period, light breeze, and clean conditions. The combined energy is moderate at 298. Sunday is the better of these two. The swell shifts to the SSE, bumps up to 5 ft, and the period stretches to 12 seconds. Winds are light cross-off in the afternoon, making for very clean, fun waves with moderate energy (710). This is the pick for the second week for a good, fun session.

Monday 28th to Wednesday 30th: A larger pulse of S groundswell arrives. From Monday morning the 28th, swell is 6 ft at 14 seconds, building to 7 ft on Tuesday the 29th, and then to 13 ft on Wednesday the 30th. The wind stays cross-off and clean. The energy climbs from 1766 to 9878. As this swell gets over 8 ft again on the 30th, it’s only for experts. Asakawa is inconsistent, so again, you'll have to wait for sets, but when they come, they'll be powerful.

Rusty.

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