Asakawa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break down this Asakawa forecast. It’s been pretty quiet around here to start, so don’t get your hopes up for the first few days. We’re looking at a stretch that’s going to test your patience – right now, through the end of August and into early September, the surf is small and the wind is mostly cross-onshore, keeping the surface messy. From Wednesday the 26th of August right through to Monday the 1st of September, we’re stuck with weak energy levels, between 80 and 270 (combined energy), and wave heights barely reaching 3 feet or so. It’s more of a paddle-around-and-stretch kind of week, to be honest. There’s one little glimmer on Saturday the 29th morning and Sunday the 30th morning where the wind goes glassy – pure calm – but the swell is tiny at 2 feet to 3 feet from the SSW with a short period of 7 seconds. You’ll get a few dribblers, but it’s not going to get your heart pumping. Still, if you’re desperate for a wet session, those are your windows.

Then things start to get interesting but not for the right reasons. By Tuesday the 1st of September, we see a big jump in energy – 1438 to 2139 (combined energy) – with swell building to 7 feet to 8 feet from the SSE, but the wind turns into a stiff cross-onshore at 16 mph, chopping it all up. That sets the stage for a proper pulse of energy moving through the middle of the week. On Wednesday the 2nd of September, the swell hits 12 feet to 13 feet from the SSE with massive combined energy values between 2000 and 3000, but it’s accompanied by a strong onshore wind screaming at 25 mph. That is pure mess. Honestly, this is looking more like a kite-surfing session than a paddle-surfing one – unless you’re into getting worked. The wind stays strong and onshore through Thursday the 3rd, Friday the 4th, and into Saturday the 5th, with swell holding around 8 feet to 12 feet. There’s plenty of water moving, but the quality is poor to marginal.

There’s a glimmer of hope moving into the second week. By Monday the 7th of September, the wind eases back to gentle breezes – still cross-onshore – but the swell starts to get some proper length to it. Monday afternoon sees a 7-foot swell from the SSE with a period of 13 seconds and combined energy of 2472. That’s a groundswell, and it’s got some push behind it. The real standout, though, looks to be Tuesday the 8th of September morning. We’ve got a 10-foot swell from the SE, period of 11 seconds, and combined energy of 4008. The wind is light – just a slight air – so it’s only cross-onshore at 3 mph, which means the surface should stay pretty clean despite the direction. That’s a solid, powerful swell for Asakawa. But here’s the thing: 10 feet is getting up there – that’s expert territory only. It’s also coming from the SE, and Asakawa’s optimum is from the SE, so the exposure should line up nicely. Later that afternoon it drops a little to 8 feet, still with clean-ish wind. The next day, Wednesday the 9th of September morning, has a 6-foot SSW swell with a 12-second period and light wind – that’s a more manageable size and should offer some decent shape.

And then, later in the forecast window, Thursday the 10th of September morning throws up serious numbers: 10 feet from the S with a 15-second period – that’s very long period groundswell – and combined energy of 4552. The wind is light, but cross-onshore at 9 mph. That combination of size and length is going to make the waves fat and walled up, better suited to a point or reef than a beach break. Asakawa is a point, so that could actually work in its favour. But it’s risky – that’s big, powerful water, and only for experienced surfers who know the lineup.

Water temperature right now at the start of the forecast is 84°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – about 2 degrees Fahrenheit above average – so you’ll be in boardies or a shorty, no worries.

Crowds at Asakawa are listed as “sometimes,” so you might get a few out, but with conditions being marginal for so long, it might thin out a little.

Overall, the only true standout recommended window in this 16-day forecast is Tuesday the 8th of September morning. It’s got the biggest, most consistent swell that matches the optimum direction, the wind is light enough to keep it smooth, and the energy is proper. After that, Thursday the 10th morning has potential but comes with a big caveat – that 15-second period and 10-foot swell will be a handful. For now, it’s a waiting game. Stay keen, but don’t drive out until you see that Tuesday morning light.

– Rusty

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