Monabe Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I've got to level with you – it's been a quiet stretch out here at Monabe Rivermouth. We're looking at a solid week of tiny, weak waves with very ordinary conditions before anything worthwhile shows up. The modest energy that's around is from the east or southeast, but it's barely registering. Combined wave energy is sitting in the low double digits to around 80 for most of this first week, so we're talking about nothing to get excited about until later.

Starting Monday the 20th, there's just no surf to speak of. We've got glassy mornings and light offshore winds a few times, but with swell height only 0.6 to 2 ft and periods around 9 to 11 seconds, it's a flat spell. The afternoons see a light onshore breeze that won't help anything. This pattern of poor surf holds right through until the morning of Sunday the 26th. Even with a bit more energy on that Sunday (combined energy around 141), the swell height is still a tiny 1 ft. A long, flat run.

The tide starts to turn properly on Monday the 27th of July. The morning session is where it gets interesting first – we finally get a 4 ft swell from the SSE with a period of 12 seconds, giving a decent kick of energy (682). It's glassy, light wind, and the waves are just about surfable. The afternoon picks up to 5 ft from the south (energy climbs to 1273) but there’s risk of thunderstorms and a light onshorer, making it a bit messy.

But the real standout, the one to circle on your calendar, is Tuesday the 28th. Holy mackerel. Tuesday morning is the pick of the whole outlook. A solid 10 ft groundswell from the south with a very long 15-second period is pumping in. Combined energy is a massive 4408 – strong wave energy, no doubt. On top of that, it's glassy, the wind is offshore from the SSE, and conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is a big-swell day for sure – well over 8 ft – so it's strictly for the experienced crew. The afternoon stays big at 12 ft but picks up a light onshore wind, so morning is your window for clean, powerful waves.

After that, it's a rollercoaster. Wednesday the 29th drops right off again into weak, small surf with onshore winds. Then we go into a dodgy period with risk of thunderstorms and strong cross-onshore winds whipping up from the ESE at 12-18 mph through Thursday and Friday the 30th and 31st. Swell is tiny and junked out.

Then things get wild but wrong. Saturday the 1st of August, the morning swell is only 6 ft but with a short, weak period of 6 seconds and a howling 22 mph cross-on shore – it'll be a washing machine. The afternoon, though, is massive – 18 ft from the south at 14 seconds – that’s a huge amount of energy (12695!) – but with onshore winds. The same story for Sunday the 2nd of August: absolute beast swells (20 ft, 16 ft) but cross-onshore winds from the southeast or south at 15-18 mph. With the wind hammering it, this setup is way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It's just blown-out mayhem for a surfer. That big swell will be breaking straight and ugly at a river mouth.

So, to sum it up: there's a lot of flat and a lot of windy junk in this 16-day window. The single standout that's worth the paddle is the morning of Tuesday, 28th July. Get on it early if you're an experienced surfer after some clean, heavy south groundswell at Monabe Rivermouth.

That's it from me. Stay frothy, but pick your battles.

Rusty

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