Monabe Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty.

Straight up, this is a tough 16-day stretch for Monabe Rivermouth. There’s not a single decent day in the whole run. The break is a river mouth that rarely breaks, is very sheltered, and only handles swell from the east. What little swell that shows up is tiny and weak, and even when the energy climbs a bit, the conditions are poor or just ordinary. Expect a long blank run with very little to get excited about.

Kicking off on Saturday 11 July, it’s a dead loss with no swell and a light breeze from the SSW. Sunday 12 July stays near flat with 1ft of weak easterly swell pushing through at 9 seconds – the combined energy is only 15, so barely a bump. The wind goes glassy in the morning which is nice, but there’s nothing to ride. Monday 13 July and Tuesday 14 July are similar: tiny 1ft south-east swells, glassy mornings, combined energy sitting between 32 and 37. Wednesday 15 July sees 1-1ft swell, still poor. By Thursday 16 July there’s 1-2ft from the east at 9 seconds, energy up to 79 – still hopeless for a wave.

Friday 17 July pushes a bit more east swell at 2-3ft, energy hitting 99 by the arvo, but a risk of thunderstorms and a cross-onshore breeze makes it a mess. Saturday 18 July is the first time the swell gets over 3ft – 4-5ft from the east-south-east at a short 8 seconds, combined energy at 244-279. Winds are glassy in the morning, clean in the arvo, and the models call it “surfable but very ordinary.” For a river mouth that rarely breaks, that’s about as good as it gets here, but it’s still nothing to write home about.

Sunday 19 July looks dangerous – 10ft of south-east groundswell at 12 seconds in the morning (energy 2018!) but it’s cross-onshore winds at 6 mph and the conditions are marginal. That size is only for experts, and the afternoon drops to 8ft but cranks up to 12 mph cross-onshore – choppy and poor. Monday 20 July to Wednesday 22 July are back to 3-5ft of short period swell, weak energy, and mostly poor conditions. Thursday 23 July and Friday 24 July offer 3-5ft from the east-south-east, with Friday morning glassy and 5ft at 9 seconds (energy 448) – surfable but ordinary.

Saturday 25 July and Sunday 26 July fade back to 2-3ft south swells, weak energy, and not worth paddling out.

Honestly, this spot is rarely breaking and the whole forecast is grim. A rare river break like this tends to stay poor for long stretches – forecasts can change, but right now there’s nothing to chase.

– Rusty

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