Monabe Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Monabe Rivermouth. Let’s be straight up: this isn’t a run of classic surf, but there’s a short, heavy window later that’s got my heart pumping. This spot is a river mouth, it’s very sheltered and rarely breaks—so when it does, you pay attention. The water is sitting at 86°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, a solid 4°F above the average.

The next few days, starting Friday 31 July, are a write-off. Tiny 1.0ft to 1ft swell from the SE with short periods and onshore wind—just poor surf conditions. Saturday is the same story. You’d be better off cleaning the wax off your board.

Then Sunday 2 August morning shows a flicker of hope. We’ve got 2ft from the ESE, but the period jumps to 18 seconds, which is very long-period groundswell. The combined energy is moderate (384). Glassy wind too. That long period at a river mouth can be a bit straight, but it’s a tease of what’s coming.

Monday 3 August morning is where it gets real. The swell pushes to 5ft from the ESE, 15-second period, and the combined energy is strong (1008). Glassy conditions with a slight air. The forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” This is a standout for experienced surfers—the size is getting into that big territory, and the shape from a long-period groundswell at a river mouth should be lined up. The optimum swell direction is east, and this is ESE, so close enough to be firing. Crowds are possible, but with it rarely breaking, the locals will be on it.

Tuesday 4 August is a beast. The morning sees 10ft from the ESE, 17-second period, and combined energy is very strong (4947). That’s big—over 8ft, so experts only. Wind is light onshore, so it’s a bit lumpy, but the power is undeniable. The afternoon gets even stronger energy (6497) but with cross-onshore wind and risk of storms.

Now, the absolute standout, the one you circle on the calendar: Wednesday 5 August morning. We’re talking 15ft from the SE, 17-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 11588. That’s strong to very strong. And the wind is glassy, calm—zero wind. The forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is a solid, heavy, clean groundswell at a river mouth that needs the right direction. The SE is a touch off the optimum E, but with that size and period, it’s going to be memorable. This is for experts only.

Thursday 6 August is still huge, 25ft from the SE, 18-second period, but the wind turns cross-shore and picks up to 16 mph, making it choppy. The combined energy is off the charts (38270), but it’s a bit of a mess. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

After that, the swell drops fast. Friday 7 August to Sunday 9 August sees big but messy cross-shore wind, and the period shortens. The conditions turn poor. There’s a long gap of poor to ordinary surf from 8 August through to 15 August, with only small, weak energy and onshore winds. The morning of Tuesday 11 August shows a brief 5ft from the ESE with glassy wind, but it’s only a 2 out of 10 quality—surfable but not worth the paddle.

So, if you’re game, Monday 3 August morning and Wednesday 5 August morning are the two true standouts. The first is a solid, clean 5ft, the second is a monster 15ft with glass. Both are for experienced surfers, and the river mouth will be working. Don’t sleep on Wednesday—that’s the one.

Rusty.

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