Monabe Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut straight to it. The next couple of weeks at Monabe Rivermouth are a real mixed bag. There’s some proper energy coming through mid-period, but you’re gonna have to pick your windows carefully, because the wind and the tide are going to be playing games with us.

Right now, Monday afternoon, it’s pretty messy. There’s a storm risk, onshore breeze, and only 4ft of short-period SE swell – the combined energy is weak at 235. Not worth getting wet for. We’ve got a couple of days of small, glassy but ordinary surf – Tuesday and Wednesday mornings see 4-5ft ESE swell, but it’s lacking any real push. The energy climbs a bit (up to 375 on Tuesday morning), but honestly, it’s still pretty average. The water’s sitting at 82°, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Then comes the first real standout. Friday morning, the 18th – the swell jumps to 8ft from the E, with an 8-second period. It’s still a bit short-period, but the winds are glassy and there’s decent energy behind it (1083). That’s your first proper surfable window, and it should be clean. The afternoon gets a bit onshore, so make the most of the morning session.

But the big one – the one you’ve been waiting for – is Saturday the 19th through Monday the 21st. This is where it gets serious. Saturday morning sees 12ft of ESE groundswell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy is massive – 4352. The winds are glassy, and this is excellent for experienced surfers. The rivermouth should handle it well, but that size is pushing it for anyone not comfortable in solid surf. Sunday the 20th is even bigger – 13ft in the morning, building to 15ft by the afternoon, with a 14-second period and the energy cranking up to 8517. Winds are offshore or glassy, so the conditions will be clean, but this is expert territory. If you’re not solid on a bigger board, give it a miss.

Monday the 21st is the peak – 15ft in the morning, then 18ft in the afternoon, with a 15-second period. The energy is through the roof – 10591 in the morning, 14782 by the afternoon. The morning has a gentle offshore, but the afternoon brings a moderate cross-offshore with light rain, and it’s still clean. This is the best of the whole run, but it’s huge – definitely not for beginners, and only the most experienced should even think about it. The long period (15 seconds) means it’s a proper groundswell, so the rivermouth should hold up, but expect some serious water moving around.

After that, it fades fast. Tuesday the 22nd is a write-off – 50 km/h offshore winds turning to a near gale, making it impossible to paddle into. The swell drops through the week, and by the 23rd through the 25th we’re back to small, weak surf – 1ft to 3ft, with the energy dropping to 30-180. Nothing doing there.

There’s a slight bump on Saturday the 26th – 4ft on the morning, glassy, but still only 253 energy, so it’s pretty weak. And then Monday the 28th sees a bit more – 5ft from the E on the morning with a clean offshore, 682 energy. That’s surfable again, but nothing special.

So, in a nutshell: the standout windows are Friday morning the 18th for a fun one, and then the Saturday 19th to Monday 21st for the real power – that’s your big swell, clean conditions, and the rivermouth should be firing. Just remember, anything over 8ft is expert-only, and that run is well over that. The rest of the window is mostly small or blown out, so pick your sessions wisely.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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