Monabe Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve got the lowdown on your local stretch for the next couple of weeks. We’re looking at a real mixed bag here, but there’s a proper window of power later on if you’ve got the patience.

First up, the name of the game here is Monabe Rivermouth. It’s a river break that’s rarely breaking, so when it does switch on, you’ve got to be on it. The water temp is sitting at 84°F; that’s a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can leave the thick wetsuit at home.

The opening weekend is a bit of a slow burner. Saturday, 1 August, has tiny 1ft surf from the ESE with a period of 10 seconds. The wave energy is weak (43), and the conditions are pretty poor. Sunday the 2nd shows a bit more life with 2ft to 4ft ESE swell, and the period jumps to a very long 18 seconds in the morning. The combined energy is moderate (396) then strong (602) by the afternoon, but the wind is onshore, so it’s messy. The best chance on Sunday is the glassy morning, with that 2ft and 18-second period; it’s surfable, but pretty ordinary.

Monday the 3rd sees the swell building to 5ft, with a long 16-second period, but the wind is onshore, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. The energy is ramping up (1292 to 1781), but the quality is poor. Tuesday the 4th gets bigger, with 8ft to 10ft ESE swell, 17-second period, and strong energy (4315 to 5940). The wind is cross-onshore, so it’s lumpy and marginal at best.

Now, here’s the standout. Wednesday, 5 August morning is the absolute pick of the whole forecast. You’ve got a solid 16ft of ESE swell with a very long 17-second period. The energy is massive (16162), and it’s glassy. That’s excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers. This is a big, powerful, clean groundswell pouring in. The size is over 8ft, so this is strictly for experts. The long period means it’ll hold up well at the rivermouth, but it’s going to be a handful. The afternoon on Wednesday gets ruined by strong 25 km/h (16 mph) cross-onshore winds, so don’t be late.

The rest of the first week is a brutal comedown. Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th still have big, powerful swell (18ft to 23ft, 16-17 seconds, very strong energy), but the wind is cross-shore all day, making it marginal and choppy. Saturday the 8th morning is still 13ft with a 14-second period, but that afternoon the swell drops to 6ft and the period crashes to 8 seconds, with onshore winds making it a total write-off.

From Sunday 9 August through to the end of the second week, it’s a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions. The swell hovers between 3ft and 7ft, with periods mostly between 8 and 13 seconds. The energy is low to moderate, and the wind is almost always cross or cross-onshore. There’s a glimmer of hope on the morning of Saturday 15 August, with 5ft, 13-second period E swell, and glassy conditions, but it’s only rated as “good” and not a standout. The real recovery looks like Sunday 16 August morning, with 8ft, 14-second period E swell, glassy, and very good conditions. The energy is strong (2962). That’s a solid end to the forecast for experienced surfers, but it’s 16 days away, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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