Monabe Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at this forecast for Monabe Rivermouth for a while now. Gotta be straight with you—this is a tough one. For the next two weeks, it’s mostly tiny, weak, and pretty ordinary. The swell just doesn’t have any push for a proper paddle session.

First up, on Monday 13th July, we’ve got a tiny 1ft SE swell, but it’s 10 seconds—long enough to roll in but with only 32 units of energy (weak). Winds are light onshore, and the report says “poor surf conditions.” That’s the story for the next couple of weeks. Through Tuesday 14th to the 17th, it’s the same deal: knee-high dribble, mostly 1ft to 1ft, with periods around 9 to 12 seconds. Combined energy stays under 50 (weak). The odd morning glass-off with SW wind is the only silver lining, but the waves just aren’t there.

Saturday 18th July sees a tiny bump to 2ft from the ESE, period 10 seconds, and energy climbs to 110 (moderate). Still, the report says “poor surf conditions”—the wind is cross-on and the waves are messy. Sunday 19th morning has a glassy 3ft, only 8 seconds period, so it’s short and crumbly. Energy hits 84 (weak). This pattern holds through the week: small, weak, and mostly cross-onshore.

Then, around Monday 27th July, things change. The morning starts with a 6ft SSE swell, period 13 seconds, and combined energy jumps to 1089 (strong). That’s the first real pulse of the window. Winds are glassy, so it’ll be clean. The report says “expect good surf conditions.” That Monday morning is the standout—the biggest swell, cleanest wind, and decent energy. But at 6ft, it’s a bit much for beginners. The swell direction is SSE, which matches the optimum E direction reasonably well, but it’s coming from a more southerly angle, so the Rivermouth might handle it okay. Crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might share it.

Tuesday 28th July morning drops to 5ft from the S at 10 seconds, energy 607 (moderate). Winds are glassy again, but the report says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” The afternoon gets messy. The long gap before that Monday pulse is a solid 13 days of nothing worth paddling out for.

Water temperature on Monday 13th is 79°F, with a -1°F anomaly—that’s about average for the time of year, so no shock there.

Overall, for the next 16 days, the only real shot is that Monday 27th July morning. It’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it. Everything else is a bust. If you’re a kite surfer, the cross-on winds and small swell might make it interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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