Monabe Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let's have a look at what's cooking for the next couple of weeks at Monabe Rivermouth.

Honestly, for a spot that rarely breaks, we’ve got a bit of a slow burn. The first week is pretty flat and frustrating. There’s some tiny, weak energy around Saturday the 12th with a 2 ft easterly, but it's coming in over a very sheltered setup, and despite the glassy mornings, the wave quality is just poor. Sunday and Monday are much the same story – small waves, mainly under 3 ft, and the short periods (8 seconds) mean the waves will be weak and fat. The combined swell energy stays low, under 300, so it's a bit of a non-event. Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th offer tiny knee-high waves at best, with that short period, and the vibe is just "surfable but ordinary". You’ll be scratching around. Thursday the 17th is a write-off with a shifting, short-period swell.

Things finally wake up on Friday the 18th. The morning shows a nice 8 ft easterly swell with a period of 9 seconds and total calm, glassy conditions. The combined energy jumps right up to 2157, that's moderate wave energy. That window Friday morning looks like the first real chance for a clean wave. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

Then we hit the standout of the entire forecast. Saturday the 19th is the one you circle on the calendar. We’re looking at a solid 16 ft swell from the ESE, with a period of 16 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell, which will really suit the rivermouth setup. The swell energy is enormous, clocking in at 21858, which is very strong. The morning has a light cross-off breeze, making for clean, lined-up sets. This is expert-level size though, over 8 ft, so only for those with the skill and the balls. The break is rarely breaking, so when it does come alive like this, it’s a rare, special event. Expect crowds to be possible. Saturday afternoon stays similar, though slightly lighter on energy.

Sunday the 20th still has a big 8 ft swell, but it swings more south, and we get some rain and a cross-off wind. It’s still good for experienced surfers, with very good conditions in the morning.

After that, the weather turns chaotic. Monday the 21st sees a 13 ft southerly swell, but strong, cross-shore winds of 16 mph will chop it up. We’re talking kite-surfing conditions more than paddle surfing. Tuesday the 22nd is a lost cause with a messy, 28 mph onshore wind.

Looking into the second week, the forecast is more uncertain, but the potential is huge. We get a fresh pulse of swell on the 24th (Thursday) with 8 ft from the SE and a 16-second period. The glassy morning looks promising. Then Friday the 25th through Saturday the 27th is a sustained run of big, long-period SE groundswell, pushing up to 15 ft on the Saturday with a period of 17 seconds. Those mornings with a glassy offshore wind and clear skies will be world-class for experts. The combined swell energy will be well into four-digit figures (over 4946), so hold onto your board. Just be aware that these longer-period swells at a rivermouth can be a bit straight. It’s all for the experienced crew. The Sunday the 27th winds down with a big 10 ft easterly, glassy conditions, and a calm ocean.

So, to sum it up: sit tight through the first week, then get ready. The absolute standout is Saturday the 19th – that’s the biggest and best, and it’s rare for this place. The following Thursday to Saturday in the second week also looks absolutely pumping for those who can handle the size and the crowd.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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