Monabe Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’ve got a long look at the region for you. Let’s get into it.

First off, we’re talking about Monabe Rivermouth – a river mouth that is *rarely breaks*, so when it’s flat, it’s flat. And for the first week and a half, it’s pretty much a write-off. From Wednesday the 22nd of July right through to Friday the 1st of August, the data shows nothing but poor surf conditions and tiny swell. You’re looking at swell heights between 1.0ft and 1ft for most of that time, with the odd bump to 2ft or 3ft on the weekend of the 26th. The energy is weak (values between 32 and 241), and the wave comment is “poor surf conditions” every session. There’s a bit of a lift on Saturday the 1st of August morning where the wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” with a 2ft SSE swell, but it’s still nothing to write home about. That’s a solid 10-day gap of mostly nothing happening.

The real action starts on Sunday the 2nd of August. Sunday morning, the swell jumps to 5ft from the SSE, with a period of 14 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy hits 1283, which is moderate, and the conditions are glassy with a light S wind. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions”. This is the first standout. The river mouth should start to show some shape, but the direction is SSE, which is not the optimum E direction the break likes. Still, it’s the best we’ve seen so far.

But the real standout for the whole forecast is Monday the 3rd of August. Monday morning, the swell is 13ft from the SSE, with a 16-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. The energy is a massive 7872, and it’s glassy calm with zero wind. The wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers”. This is not for beginners. At 13ft, it’s expert-only territory. The long period will make it powerful, and at a river mouth, it could be incredible if the banks are right, but it could also be a beast. The Tuesday morning (4th of August) is also a standout with the same 13ft S swell, still glassy, and energy at 6995. Wednesday morning (5th of August) is 12ft from the SSE, glassy, with energy at 4499. These three mornings are the absolute best of the lot.

The afternoons during that big swell window are a bit messier – onshore winds and “marginal” conditions, so you’ll want to be on it first thing. The water temperature anomaly is not mentioned in the data for this spot, so I can’t tell you if it’s warmer or colder than usual.

Bottom line: don’t even bother before the 2nd of August. The weekend of the 2nd and that Monday through Wednesday (3rd-5th of August) are the only real windows, and they’re for experienced surfers only. The swell direction is off the optimum (SSE vs E), so it might not be perfect at the rivermouth, but the size and power will be there. Get it while it’s glassy.

Rusty.

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