Monabe Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about the next couple of weeks at Monabe Rivermouth. It’s been a slow start, and honestly, the first week is a bit of a write-off for a proper paddle. We’ve got a long stretch of small, choppy, or just plain messy surf to get through before the ocean wakes up and delivers something serious.

Right now, we’re looking at a pretty flat and messy run. For the first five days, from Sunday the 16th through to Thursday the 20th, it's tiny and pretty uninspiring. The swell’s all over the place, coming from the east, and it’s weak. The energy readings are pretty low (between 51 and 377), meaning there’s just not enough push. Winds are mostly cross-shore or onshore, and while we get the odd glassy morning, the waves are just too small to bother with. This is a period for checking the tide charts and doing other things, not for getting wet. We’re looking at a five-day gap with no real surf on offer to start the period.

Now, there’s a bit of a tease late on Thursday the 20th. The swell will bump up a touch to 7ft, but it’s short-period, sloppy stuff with an onshore wind, so the quality is going to be poor. Not worth the paddle out.

The real story begins on Friday the 21st. Overnight, the ocean finally switches on. A strong, moderate wave energy (1681) swell from the south arrives, pushing the size up to 10ft with a solid 10-second period. The morning is glassy, and even though the break is inconsistent and very sheltered, this is the first real sign of life. This is a big swell though, over 8ft, so it’s expert territory only. The afternoon looks like it could get messy with a tstorm risk and onshore winds, so the morning window is the one.

The next few days drop back down a bit, but we’re still dealing with poor quality surf. Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd have some waves but the winds and periods aren’t working together, keeping the quality down. It’s frustrating stuff.

Then we see the pattern set in for the real prize. Monday the 24th sees a long-period swell (13-14 seconds) from the southeast start to fill in, but it’s still not clean. The standout window is shaping up for Tuesday the 25th through to Friday the 28th. The energy readings are getting strong - we're talking 1612 on Tuesday morning and building. By Wednesday the 26th, there’s a big, powerful groundswell from the southeast with a 14-second period, with 8ft waves and glassy conditions. This is a “very good” forecast, and the river mouth setup will love this long period. This is a true standout.

But the real monster, the one you’ll be telling your mates about, is Saturday the 29th. The forecast is for an exceptional 26ft of swell from the southeast with a 15-second period. The energy reading is a massive 27250 – that’s very, very strong. It’s glassy and clean, but this is an absolute beast. This is for the most experienced chargers out there. The river mouth should handle the long period better than a beach break, but this is a serious, serious session. After that, it drops off quickly into Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st, back to smaller, more modest waves.

So, to wrap it up: the first few days are a washout. The two standout sessions to circle on the calendar are the Wednesday the 26th morning for the quality and power, and the Saturday the 29th morning for the true, once-in-a-blue-moon size and power. That Saturday is the one. Long-range forecasts like that are promising but less certain, but if it holds, it’s going to be an epic day for the few who are brave enough.

Take care of yourselves out there.

Rusty.

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