Monabe Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is a tough one to start with. Monabe Rivermouth is a very sheltered river-mouth break that rarely breaks at all, so we’re in for a long wait this period. The water temp is sitting at 83°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

For the first several days, from Sunday 16th through to the morning of Thursday 21st, it’s a flat, choppy, or blown-out mess. Swell energy is weak, mostly under 200 (312 is the highest early on, but it’s short-period, wind-affected junk). The wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, and scores are basically zero. Don’t bother paddling out.

Then on the morning of Friday 21st, we get a brief glimmer. Swell jumps to 6ft from the south with an 11-second period, combined energy of 831 (moderate), and glassy conditions. That’s the first real standout of the period – clean, rideable, and the best we’ve seen by far. But it’s only a morning window; the afternoon drops back to nothing.

After that, it goes dead again through the weekend and into Monday 24th. The afternoon of the 24th has a tiny bump of 3ft from the SE with a 13-second period, energy 335, and glassy wind – surfable but very ordinary.

The real standout, and the one to circle on the calendar, is the morning of Tuesday 25th through to the morning of Thursday 27th. Tuesday morning has 5ft from the SE at 14 seconds, energy 845 (moderate), and glassy – that’s clean, punchy, and well-shaped for a river mouth. Wednesday morning steps it up: 7ft SE at 16 seconds, energy 2013 (strong), glassy, and the forecast says “very good surf conditions.” Thursday morning is the crown jewel: 8ft SE at 16 seconds, energy 3538 (strong), glassy – but that’s getting into expert territory, especially with a long-period groundswell that might make the rivermouth a bit walled. Still, if you’re skilled, that’s a session to remember.

Friday 28th morning sees a big 10ft swell from the SSE at 16 seconds, energy 4878 (strong), but it’s cross-off wind from the ENE, so it’s clean but huge – only for experts. The afternoon gets messy with 19 mph cross-shore winds. After that, it’s a blown-out, dangerous mess from Saturday 29th onward, with 13ft to 20ft swells and near-gale winds. The only late highlight is Monday 31st morning: 13ft from the east at 15 seconds, glassy, energy 6985 (very strong) – an excellent, clean, massive swell for experienced surfers only.

Bottom line: the first week is mostly a write-off. The best windows are Friday 21st morning, then the standout stretch from Tuesday 25th morning through Thursday 27th morning, with Monday 31st morning as a late, expert-only gem. For most of us, aim for the 25th to 27th.

Rusty

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