Monabe Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this stretch of coast is going to test your patience for a long while. The first week to ten days are pretty much a write-off. We’ve got a rivermouth that’s shy, inconsistent, and mostly offering ankle-biters or junky closeouts. The water’s sitting at 84°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only mild surprise.

We start with nothing surfable on Wednesday the 9th – a mix of onshore junk and rain, with a 8ft south swell that’s running at 9 seconds but the wind is all over it. The energy is moderate at best (1081). The afternoon cleans up a bit, but the waves are ordinary.

Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th are all about tiny, clean surf – around 3ft and 3ft – but it’s so weak and short-period that you’ll be scratching for anything. Saturday and Sunday the 12th and 13th drop off to a pathetic 2ft, with a long-period 13-14 second swell that’s just not wrapping in. It’s flat and frustrating.

The early part of the following week – Monday the 14th through Wednesday the 16th – sees a slight bump back to 3-4ft, but the period is only 9 seconds and the quality is still poor. There’s occasional glass, but it’s not worth paddling out for.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th morning are still poor, but then Friday afternoon things start to stir. A 17-second south groundswell pushes the surf to 4ft, and the energy jumps to (797). It’s still ordinary, but you can feel something building.

Now, here’s the payoff. Saturday the 19th is the standout of the entire run. The swell gets serious – 8ft to 10ft from the SSE at 16 seconds – and the energy becomes very strong (3742 to 4746). Saturday morning is glassy, and the afternoon is clean with light north winds. This is the day. It’s a solid, experienced surfer’s wave, but it’s going to be good. The Monabe Rivermouth (this region) is going to light up.

Sunday the 20th holds the size at 10ft with that long period, and the morning has some cross-onshore chop, but the afternoon glass up with a light NNE breeze and it’s still excellent for the pros.

Monday the 21st is the biggest of the lot. Swell builds to 15ft to 16ft from the south at 17 seconds – a massive groundswell. The combined energy is off the charts (12049 to 14994). The morning is clean with a cross-offshore breeze, and this is too big for beginners. It’s expert territory, and it’s going to be a beast.

But then the wind turns on Tuesday the 22nd. A severe gale from the ESE blows through with 47-53 mph winds, and the whole thing becomes a total, blown-out mess. The swell is still huge at 16-18ft, but it’s completely unsurfable. That’s the trade-off.

Wednesday the 23rd morning is the freaky one. The forecast has 44ft of south swell with a 17-second period – that’s a monster, an absolute mountain. But even though the wind and tide are favorable, that’s just too much for this rivermouth. It’s going to be a washing machine, dangerous and scary. Not a surf day, it’s a survival day. The afternoon settles back to 16ft, but it’s onshore and messy.

After that, it’s all over. Thursday the 24th drops to 4ft and then fades to nothing. So, two standouts – Saturday the 19th and Monday morning the 21st. Saturday’s the better all-rounder for the average experienced surfer, while Monday is for the heavy chargers only. For the rest, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty out.

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