Akabane Long Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Well, it's a bit of a quiet start for Akabane Long Beach. We're looking at a stretch of small, messy surf for the better part of the first week. The real story is the big pulse of swell that arrives right at the end of the month and into August, but it's so big it'll be a danger zone. Let's break it down.

For the first few days, from Saturday the 18th through to the end of the week, it's pretty small. We're talking waist-high waves or less, mostly around 2 ft to 3 ft from the east-southeast. The period starts short at 8 seconds and only gets up to around 10 seconds for a few sessions. The wind is predominantly cross-onshore, so it's going to be choppy and bumpy, nothing a surfer wants to see. The combined swell energy is weak, sitting in the double digits for most of this period (84, 81, 76, etc.), so just not enough push. There's a brief window on Tuesday the 21st morning where a light cross-offshore WNW breeze cleans things up a bit, but the swell is tiny at 1 ft and the energy is still weak (68). It's surfable but you'd be scratching for anything with a face.

The next stretch from the 23rd to the 26th is more of the same. Very small waves, with the swell height dropping to 0.6 ft on Friday the 24th. The period does get long on the 24th afternoon hitting 18 seconds, but with such small size it's a tease. The combined energy stays low, mostly below 100. The one bright spot is Sunday morning the 26th, where we see a glassy west-northwest wind and clean conditions, but the swell is still only 1 ft from the southeast with a long 15-second period. It's a morning for a log if you are desperate, but it's ordinary.

Now, hold onto your board shorts, because things change big time from Monday the 27th. The swell arrives from the SSE, jumping to 6 ft in the morning with a long 16-second period. The combined energy shoots up to 1670, a massive jump. Monday afternoon sees 7 ft swell. The wind is onshore to cross-onshore and light, so the surf is going to be lumpy and tough to read. A 7 ft SSE swell with a 15-second period is solid groundswell, but with the wind all over it, this is a big, messy wall of water.

Tuesday the 28th morning starts to get out of control. We're looking at 12 ft from the SSE, with a 14-second period and a combined energy of 5089. The wind is cross-onshore from the ESE. The forecast says it's too big for this break. This is expert-only territory, maybe even too big for experienced surfers. By Tuesday afternoon, it's up to 15 ft and over 11000 energy. Wednesday the 29th is worse: 18 ft to 21 ft from the SSE with energy breaking 15000 to 20000. By Thursday the 30th we are hitting 23 ft. This is a big, dangerous swell. The wind is a cross-onshore ESE at 15 to 18 mph, so it's messy and lumpy on top of being a giant. Akabane Long Beach is exposed to this, and with this much power and onshore wind, it's going to be a washing machine. Not one for the paddle surfer.

This massive swell carries on into the first of August, with 23 ft waves on Friday the 31st, with the wind picking up to a strong 28 mph from the southeast. Saturday the 1st sees the swell drop to 7 ft, but it's still onshore and ugly, combined energy of 942. Sunday the 2nd is dropping further to 4 ft from the south, but still poor.

The only standout here is the pure size and power of the swell arriving on the 27th and 28th, but with the onshore winds, it is going to be a complete mess. If you are a very experienced big-wave charger, you might find a window on Tuesday morning the 28th with the 12 ft swell and lighter ESE winds, but be prepared for a battle. For the average surfer, there’s nothing to get excited about in this 16-day run. It's either too small and weak, or too big and messy.

Keep it salty
Rusty

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