Akabane Long Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Lookin’ at this 16-day window, it’s a real story of two halves. We’ve gotta sit through some average to poor conditions early on before a proper pulse of energy shows up, but the wait looks worth it. There will be a big gap of almost no surfable waves from now through to the middle of next week—basically, the best part of a week where you can leave the boards in the shed. The real interest kicks off around Thursday the 18th and builds from there.

Alright, let’s start where we actually get something. Akabane Long Beach doesn't give us much to work with until the morning of Tuesday the 16th. That morning is still a write-off with poor surf and a cross-onshore breeze, but Tuesday afternoon brings a bit of hope. The wind drops to glassy, the swell is a pathetic 3 ft from the SSE, period only 8 seconds—so it’s short period and weak. The combined energy is only 192, so it’s weak, but those glassy conditions will make it look better than it is. Honestly, it’s just surfable, nothing to write home about.

Thursday the 17th afternoon is where things start to perk up. We get a 5 ft swell from the ESE, period 7 seconds (short period, so not much grunt), but the wind swings to a gentle offshore from the NNW. That’ll clean it right up, and with a combined energy of 201 (still weak), it’ll be fun small-wave gear.

Now, Friday the 18th morning is a standout for the early part of the outlook. Glassy conditions, a 5 ft swell from the east, period 8 seconds—still short period, but 5 ft is a fun size, and the combined energy jumps to 376 (moderate). That’s clean, punchy little waves with no wind messing them up. It’s not huge, but it’s the best we’ve seen so far.

Then we hit Saturday the 19th morning—and this is where it gets serious. The swell jumps to 8 ft from the SE, period 15 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, very long period. The combined energy is huge at 2882 (strong energy). However, the wind is cross-shore from the ENE, so there’ll be some bumps on the face. By Saturday afternoon, things go sideways—the swell hits 10 ft from the SE, period 13 seconds, but the wind howls to 22 mph cross-shore. That’s a kite-surfing setup, not clean paddle waves. The break can’t handle that size.

Sunday the 20th: morning shows 10 ft from the ESE, period 11 seconds, with a light offshore breeze—clean conditions. But again, it’s too big for this break. Combined energy 3722 (very strong). Only for the most experienced, if anyone’s game.

Monday the 21st is a write-off—13 ft and then 16 ft swell with strong cross-onshore winds blowing. No way.

After that, the swell drops but the wind stays nasty until Thursday the 24th. On Thursday the 24th afternoon, we get a 7 ft swell from the ESE, period only 7 seconds (short period), but it’s clean with a gentle cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is 666 (moderate). That’ll be lumpy from the short period but rideable.

Now—the true standout for the entire forecast comes on Saturday the 26th. Morning gives us a 6 ft swell from the SSE, period 13 seconds (long period groundswell), with a gentle offshore from the NNW—clean as a whistle. The combined energy is strong at 1351. The break is exposed to SSE swell, and the optimum direction from the guidance is SSE, so it’s a perfect match. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers—good size, clean, long-period energy. By the afternoon, it goes glassy with a 7 ft SSE swell, period 12 seconds, combined energy 1345. This is your window. The water temperature sits at about 80°F, which is basically normal for the time of year, so no wetsuit needed.

One more mention: Sunday the 27th afternoon offers a 8 ft swell from the south, period 15 seconds (very long period groundswell), with a fresh offshore from the NW—clean, but it’s big and demands respect. Combined energy 3392 (very strong). That’s expert territory.

After that, Monday the 28th is simply too big—21 ft on the afternoon with offshore winds but the break can’t handle it.

Best of the outlook: Saturday the 26th morning and afternoon at Akabane Long Beach. That’s the one to circle on the calendar.

Rusty.

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