Akabane Long Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s coming up at Akabane Long Beach. Straight off the bat, this is a spot that’s exposed to swell and picks up plenty of energy, but the forecast is a real mixed bag. There’s a long stretch of small, messy surf early on, then a big pulse of groundswell that’s going to be way too much for a lot of days, before it drops back into something more manageable. Water temp’s sitting at 74°F, which is a tad colder than average for this time of year – not a huge shock, just a little bite in the air and water.

The first real surf window isn’t until Friday the 3rd of July morning. It’s small, with waves around 3 ft from the SSW, period a short 7 seconds, and the combined energy is weak at just 95. Wind is offshore from the NW at 9 mph, so it’ll look clean and tidy, but we’re talking waist-high waves with not much push. It’s surfable but not going to set the world on fire. Things go downhill Friday afternoon as the wind swings around and gets messy, and Saturday and Sunday are even worse – tiny swell, cross-shore or onshore winds, and choppy conditions. A few days of pretty much nothing.

Monday the 6th of July morning brings a glimmer of hope. The swell is still tiny at 2 ft, but the period jumps to 14 seconds, a proper long-period groundswell from the SE. The energy is a moderate 158, and it’s glassy – dead flat wind from the WSW at 3 mph. That’s a rare treat for cleanliness in that small a wave, but you’ll need a log or a fat fish to get going. The afternoon chops it up again.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, but maybe not in the way you’d hope. From Tuesday the 7th of July right through to the weekend of the 11th/12th, a massive, extended groundswell from the SSE/S arrives. The swell height climbs: Tuesday morning is 4 ft, but by Wednesday the 8th afternoon we’re looking at 10 ft, then peaking at 12 ft from the 10th to the 11th. Periods are long, 14 to 18 seconds, and the combined energy rockets into the thousands – 2834 on Tuesday afternoon, 6904 by Wednesday afternoon. That’s very strong energy. The problem is, this break is pretty exposed, and the swell sizes are regularly over 8 ft. That’s expert-only territory, and the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, so the wave faces will be lumpy and hard to handle. A few mornings, like Thursday the 9th and Saturday the 11th morning, have glassy or offshore wind (SSE 3-6 mph, then WNW 6 mph), but the size is still intimidating. For the average weekend warrior, this is a watch-from-the-beach kind of swell.

The standout period, in my opinion, comes later. Thursday the 16th of July morning is the one I’d circle. You’ve got a solid 6 ft swell from the SSE at a long 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell, 1493 energy, with a clean, moderate offshore wind from the NW at 16 mph. That’s going to produce well-shaped, powerful waves peeling over the sandbar. It’s big enough for a challenge, but not out of control – definitely a session for experienced surfers. The water’s still around that 74°F mark. The next morning, Friday the 17th, is bigger at 8 ft but with a light cross-on breeze, and Saturday the 18th morning offers 7 ft from the S at 12 seconds, with clean cross-off shore winds again – another solid, clean option.

Overall, this forecast is a story of patience. The first week is mostly small and ordinary, followed by a week of overkill for this spot. The best bet is that Thursday the 16th morning, and maybe the Saturday the 18th morning after it. If you’re going to paddle out on the big days, make sure you’re comfortable in solid, chunky groundswell with a bit of wind chop. Otherwise, keep an eye out for the glassy moments on the smaller days – they’ll be rare but sweet.

Rusty.

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