Sakawa River Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, checking in on the Sakawa River. Let's have a look at the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, the outlook is a bit of a bummer. We’ve got a solid run of days with no good surf on offer, so don’t get your hopes up for a quick fix. The real story is a big, powerful swell arriving in the second week, but it comes with some serious question marks.

The Sakawa River is a river mouth break, and it's fairly consistent. The water is sitting at 83°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

The first and only real standout window is the morning of Wednesday, August 5th . We’ve got a solid 10ft swell rolling in from the SE, with a long period of 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is a massive 4379, so there’s a ton of power in the water. The wind is a light 9 mph from the NE, making it a cross-shore breeze. The catch, and it’s a big one, is that the forecast calls it "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions." For a river mouth, a long period swell like this can be great, but it can also make it break a bit straight. This is intermediate territory, for sure. The crowds are a possibility, as it’s "sometimes" busy. This is the best the whole forecast period has to offer, but it’s not a guarantee.

After that, it’s a long, slow fade. The swell drops off quickly with a lot of onshore wind from Thursday, August 6th, through the weekend. The energy drops into the three-digit range, and the wind is onshore, making for choppy, average conditions. From Monday, August 10th, right through to Sunday, August 16th, the surf is small and the conditions are poor. There’s a gap of about a week with nothing worth paddling out for. The winds are clean from the North, but the swell is tiny, under 3ft. It’s a real blank run.

Things start to look a bit more interesting around Tuesday, August 18th . The swell starts to build, and by the morning of Wednesday, August 19th , we get another big pulse. It’s an 8ft swell from the SSE, with a period of 14 seconds (still a solid groundswell). The combined energy is back up to 3423. The wind is very light from the NE, so it’s almost glassy. This is a stand-out in the long range, but it’s a long way off, so treat it as promising but not set in stone. The big size (8ft) means this is for experts only. The tide could be a factor again, and the afternoon wind looks to turn onshore. This is a definite "keep an eye on it" situation.

The swell drops again into Thursday, August 20th, with a 7ft from the same direction, but the wind gets a bit stronger and more sideshore, so nothing special.

So, to sum it up: the best bet is the early morning of August 5th if you're an intermediate and can handle the tide. Otherwise, hold out hope for the big swell on August 19th, but don't book any time off work for it just yet.

Rusty.

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