Sakawa River Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up.

Right, straight up I gotta be honest with you – for a good long while, this forecast is pretty grim for paddle surfing. We’re looking at a run of days with tiny, weak swell and hardly any push. For the first couple of days, you’re looking at waves barely 1.0 ft to 1 ft with very weak combined energy (mostly under 100). The wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, so the surface is going to be a bit messy. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th? Not worth your time. That carries right on through the end of July and into the start of August. The water temp is sitting about 81°F with a 2°F anomaly, so it’s a touch warmer than average for the time of year, but that’s about the only good thing going on.

Now, there’s a bit of a tease. On Monday the 27th of July, in the afternoon, the wind goes glassy at Sakawa River. The swell is still tiny – only 2 ft from the SE with a short 10-second period, and the combined energy is just 100, so it’s weak. But for half a day, if you’re desperate and the glassy conditions are right, you might find a few very ordinary lines. I wouldn’t call it a standout, just a brief window.

The real action, if you’re an expert, comes later. We’ve got a big pulse of swell arriving around the 3rd of August. The swell builds from 5 ft on Monday morning, pushing up to 5 ft by the afternoon, and it keeps going. By the 5th, Wednesday morning, we’re seeing 7 ft from the ESE with a very long 17-second period, and combined energy is surging past 2800 – that’s serious power. The wind is cross-offshore from the NNE at 16 mph, so the face should be clean. But let’s be clear: at 7 ft, it’s getting into expert territory, and with that long period (over 15 seconds), the wave will be bowling and is best suited to the river mouth setup here at Sakawa River. It’s going to be big and walled up.

Then, the absolute standout if you’re a hardened charger is Friday the 7th of August. The morning shows a serious 12 ft from the ESE at an 18-second period, with a massive combined energy of 7444. The wind is cross-offshore from the NNW at 12 mph, so it’s clean. But I have to warn you – the forecast notes specifically say this is too big for this break. This is for experts only, and even then, it’s going to be a heavy, powerful river mouth wave. The morning of Saturday the 8th also looks massive – 12 ft again, but glassy from the WSW. Again, that’s well into the “too big for this break” territory. The rest of the second week drops back to more manageable but still marginal 5 ft to 6 ft swell, but with onshore or cross-onshore winds, so not ideal.

So to sum it up: the first week is a write-off for all but the most patient, with that one glassy moment on Monday the 27th being a small highlight. The second week offers a big, powerful, expert-only window, with the 7th of August morning being the pick of the bunch if you’ve got the skills and the nerve. Tackle it if you’re ready, but don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Rusty

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