Sakawa River Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The Sakawa River is a river mouth setup, fairly exposed, and it needs a good SE swell to work. Right now, we’ve got a long stretch of nothing much happening. The first week is basically a write-off, with tiny swell and poor conditions. The real action doesn’t start until Sunday the 26th, so we’re looking at over a week of flat, crummy surf before anything worthwhile shows up.

The first few days, from Friday the 17th through to the 25th, are all coming in under 2ft with weak, messy wind. The swell is tiny, mostly from the SE, with periods all over the shop but no energy to speak of. The combined energy is barely cracking 40 or 50 – that’s weak, weak stuff. Winds are mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the conditions are consistently called “poor.” It’s not worth a paddle. There’s a little spike in period on the 24th and 25th, hitting 18 seconds, but only 1ft of swell, so it’s all period and no push. Just a tease.

Then, Sunday the 26th morning, things start to shift. We get a jump to 3ft, SSE swell, with a 12-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 278, which is moderate. It’s still cross-onshore wind, though, so it’s messy. The rating is only a 1, and it’s described as “marginal.” The afternoon gets bigger, up to 4ft, but the wind picks up to 9 mph from the SSW, making it choppy. Not great.

Monday the 27th is where it gets interesting. The swell jumps to 7ft on the morning from the S, with a 14-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 2462. That’s strong, serious energy. Wind is light from the SSW, cross-onshore, but it’s manageable. The rating is a 3. This is the standout of the whole forecast. The swell is correctly from the optimum direction, and the size is solid for intermediate to advanced surfers. Afternoon sees 8ft, S swell, with a cross-shore wind, and the energy hits 3183. That’s very strong. It’s going to be a proper, powerful, long-period groundswell, perfect for the river mouth. The period is 14 seconds, so it’s a long-period groundswell – it should wrap in nicely and offer some good shaped waves. The caveat is that with a river mouth, the long period might make it a bit walled, but it’s still the best wave on offer.

Tuesday the 28th is still solid, with 7ft and 6ft from the S, 13-second period, and the energy is still very strong (1738 and 1207). Winds are light and onshore in the morning, shifting to onshore in the afternoon. Still a good option, but the wind is cleaner on Monday.

The end of the month, the 31st (Friday) morning, has a glimmer of hope. 7ft from the S, with a 9-second period, and the wind is light and cross-offshore. The conditions are called “clean,” and the score is 3. That’s a promising pick, but the period is shorter, so it’ll be a bit more wind-swell in nature. It’s a good second option.

After that, August 1st drops off quickly with the swell fading back to 3ft and 4ft and weak energy.

So, to sum it up: the first week and a half is a total bust. The real winner is Monday the 27th of July – that’s the day to circle. Big, powerful S swell, long period, and manageable wind. The Sakawa River mouth will be pumping. Tuesday the 28th is a solid follow-up, and the morning of Friday the 31st is a dark horse with clean, cross-offshore conditions. For the rest, it’s either too small, too windy, or just gone.

She’s a quiet start, but when it turns on, it turns on. Keep your eyes on the 27th.

Rusty.

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